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Renu JosephJanuary 9, 2012CLIVAR SSC MeetingDOEs Climate Modeling EffortsPMs: Dorothy Koch, Renu Joseph, Bob VallarioClimate Modeling ProgramsClimate and Environmental Sciences DivisionBiological and Environmental SciencesOffice of ScienceOffice of Biological and Environmental Research#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science1Department of EnergyOffice of ScienceWilliam BrinkmanDirectorPatricia DehmerDeputy DirectorHighEnergyPhysicsBiological and Environmental Research (BER)Sharlene Weatherwax,Associate DirectorBasicEnergySciencesFusionEnergySciencesAdvancedScientificComputingResearchNuclearPhysicsBiological Systems ScienceSharlene Weatherwax,DirectorClimate and Environmental SciencesGary Geernaert,Director#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science

Climate and Environmental Sciences Division

#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science3Why DOE?The Energy-Climate NexusDOE seeks to:Understand the effects of GHG emissions on Earths climate and the biosphereProvide world-leading capabilities in climate modeling and process research on clouds and aerosols, and the carbon cycleProvide unique, world-leading capabilities in cloud and aerosol observations and large scale ecological experimentsBuild foundational science to support effective energy and environmental decision makingGreenhouse gases are emitted during energy production and climate change will impact energy production

#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science4Key Points to keep in mind!The Integrated approach to answer key science questions:Two examples (NGEE, GOAMAZON)

Most DOE climate modeling research is around the development and analysis of the CESM

The Lab-University funding distribution is 50-50.

All our funding is peer reviewedThrough solicitationsScience Focus Areas #CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of ScienceClimate Modeling as CESD integratorDevelop Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) clouds, aerosols and dynamicsApply ARM and other cloud/atmosphere/aerosol datasets to improve and test modelUse model to discern most sensitive and uncertain elements of CAM to inform ASR research and ARM deployments

Links between Atmospheric Sciences Research/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ASR/ARM) and Climate Modeling#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science6Climate Modeling as CESD integratorDevelop Carbon cycle in Community Land Model (CLM)Apply Ameriflux and other TES datasets to improve and test CLMUse model to discern most sensitive or uncertain elements of CLM to inform TES research

Links between Terrestrial Ecosystem Sciences (TES) and Climate Modeling

#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science7Next Generation Ecosystem ExperimentGoalDevelop Earth System Model simulation of Arctic Ecosystem evolution under climate change by developing a process-rich ecosystem model, from bedrock to the top of the vegetative canopy, at the scale of an Earth System Model (ESM) grid cell (e.g. 30x30 km grid size)ApproachCollaborative effort among DOE National Laboratories and universities, with opportunity for leveraging through external collaboration with other agenciesInterdisciplinary, multi-scale approach to advance predictive understanding through coupled modeling and process research

#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of ScienceGreen Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) 2014Study interactions of the tropical rain forest and cloud systems: role of biogenic aerosols, surface fluxes as well as impact of pollution on cloud system developmentsDeployment of the ARM Mobile Facility and G1 aircraft to Manaus, Brazil in 2014All CESD programs are collaborating to leverage this investment and improve the representation of these processes in Earth system modelsInternational coordination (e.g., Brazilian scientists and research institutions). Opportunities for U.S. scientists and other Federal agencies to collaborate.

#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of ScienceOverarching Goal for Climate ModelingTo advance fundamental understanding of climate variability and climate change by developing and analyzing Climate and Earth System Models at temporal scales ranging from decades to centuries and spatial scales ranging from global to regional to understand climate and energy impacts

RegionalGlobalMultiscaleDevelopmentAnalysis

Earth System ModelingRegional and Global Climate ModelingIntegrated Assessment Research Program#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of ScienceDevelops improved representations of specific model components - along with better coupling mechanisms - and integrating them into Earth System Models that take advantage of DOEs high-performance computing capabilities.

Develops, evaluates and uses Regional and Global Climate Models to obtain more accurate projections of future climate at higher resolution.

Develops Integrated Assessment Models to determine the impacts from and possible mitigation of climate change.

10Regional and Global Climate ModelingRegionalHigh Resolution Modeling to obtain reliable climate predictions/projections to enable us to understand climate and energy impacts and interactions at regional scalesFocus on regions vital for assessing future climate(e.g., Arctic, Tropics)

Regional and GlobalModel Analyses to improve our understanding of the climate system includingDistinction between natural variability and anthropogenic climate changeExtreme event representation and attributionUnderstanding the feedbacks and interactions between processes within the climate systemQuantification of the uncertainties and feedbacks in the climate system to understand how reliable the projections/predictions are

#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science11Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison: PCMDIPCMDIScientific leadership of community modeling activities (e.g., AMIP, CMIP)Development and application of broad brush climate model performance metricsClimate change detection and attribution researchDiagnosis of global climate models (variability, hydrological cycle, land surface processes, ocean heat content and circulation)CAPT project (Cloud Associated Project Testbed)Studies of aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and radiation processesLeadership of software development and infrastructure support for community modeling activities

#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of ScienceUCAR-DOE Cooperative AgreementResearch AreasModeling Future Climate Change with Various Climate ForcingsEvaluation of and Improvements to Components of Climate System ModelsPhysical Parameterization Development and Process Studies Using a Hierarchy of Modeling FrameworksClimate Dynamics Applied to Climate ChangeImpactThis provided the largest set of simulations to the CMIP3 multi-model dataset that was assessed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

They are currently participating in a set of coordinated experiments to address short term decadal climate change and new long term mitigation/adaptation scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of ScienceThis research is a strong contributor to the federal Climate Change Science Program and US Global Change Research Program in several high priority areas as well as providing the largest set of simulations to the CMIP3 multi-model dataset that was assessed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We are currently preparing to participate in an upcoming set of coordinated experiments to address short term decadal climate change and new long term mitigation/adaptation scenarios that would be assessed for a possible IPCC Fifth Assessment Report13Earth System Modeling Develop model physics of system components (CESM)Couple individual componentsTest and improve components using observations (Test-bed)SciDAC partnership with Advanced Scientific Computing (ASCR)Optimize computationally intensive processes and codesEvaluate process feedbacks and potential for abrupt climate change

#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of ScienceEarth System Modeling ProjectsFAST physics cloud model testbed: test and develop cloud parameterizations using ARM measurements Abrupt climate change: 1. Stability of WAIS (sheet-ocean interface), 2. Drought potential over US (Land hydrology, dust), 3. Arctic methane clathrate and permafrost release (land, ocean, atmosphere biogeochemistry)Arctic polar: pollution transport to Arctic, Arctic cloud, cryosphere development and couplingHigh Resolution: Challenges and benefits of running model at very high resolution (0.25x0.1 atmospherexocean), hydrologic extremes, eddiesIntegrated Earth System Model: Tighter coupling between human activity (e.g. water, land, energy use) and climate (effects on energy, biosphere)Visualization development of tools for analysis and visualization of large and diverse (spatio-temporal) model and observational datasets

#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of ScienceClimate Science for a Sustainable Energy Future: CSSEF3 Science Themes:NumericsTestbedsUncertainty Quantification3 Components:AtmosphereLandOcean and Sea-Ice8 Labs:ANLBNLLANLLBNLLLNLORNLPNNLSNL3 Research Directions:Hydrologic simulation improvementVariable-resolution numerical methodsCarbon cycle uncertainty reduction

#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of ScienceClimate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling : COSIM

Develop advanced ocean and ice models for evaluating the role of ocean and ice in high-latitude climate change and projecting impacts of high-latitude change on regions throughout the globe.

Science driversIce sheets and sea level riseStability of ocean circulationArctic biogeochemistry and rapid ice retreatModel developmentPOP/HYPOP/MPAS-OceanCICEGlimmer-CISMCCSMHigh resolution and multi-resolution climate eddy resolving models

#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of SciencePriorities for CLIVAR ConsiderationLooking at the Earth System as an integrated whole, while identifying science gapsExamples the hydrologic cycle (atmosphere, surface, below ground)Sea Level rise (ice-sheets, oceans, coasts)High latitude system (carbon cycle, hydrology, biogeochemical processes, clouds)Inter-agency Collaboration on solicitations that Complement StrengthsActivities that enhance collaboration between Ocean Modeling and observationsWhat changing priorities in your agency require US CLIVAR to consider expanding or moving in new directions?#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of SciencePriorities for CLIVAR ConsiderationAddress Challenges due to Increasing Volume of Model Data, Next Generation Data Analysis, Validation and Verification NeedsIncreasing Data ChallengesIPCC AR4 ~35 TB; AR5 > 3 PB (100 fold increase)By 2030, the combined model and observational records are projected to increase by another factor of 100Easy analysis and diagnostics capabilitiesDedicated infrastructure to support increasing data volume and focused investments in user-friendly software tools to work with the dataValidation and Verification of modelsAgile frameworks to synthesize observations (e.g. from satellites, field campaigns, and surface networks) with model output, either embedded in the model code or in post-processing frameworksData Provenance IssuesWhat changing priorities in your agency require US CLIVAR to consider expanding or moving in new directions?#CLIVAR SSC Meeting, Jan 9, 2012 Office of Science