Clinton Survey memo

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324 Second Street, SE •Washington, DC 20003 1005 Congress, Ste 495 • Austin, TX 78701 1319 Classen Drive • Oklahoma City, OK 73103 202.470.6300 @wparesearch www.wparesearch.com Global Perspective. Innovative Research. Superior Results. POLLING MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: WPA OPINION RESEARCH SUBJECT: HILLARY CLINTON’S UNLV SPEAKING FEE DATE: JULY 17, 2014 The following memo highlights the key findings for a statewide survey WPA conducted in Nevada of 405 likely voters July-14-15, 2014. The full sample has a margin of error equal to ±4.9%. The Results x The overwhelming majority of likely voters believe that Hillary Clinton’s UNLV speaking fee of $250,000 is unfair. The following question was read to respondents. As you may have heard, UNLV has agreed to pay Hillary Clinton two hundred and twenty five thousand dollars to speak at a school foundation fundraiser. This comes even as tuition at the university has gone up seventeen percent. Do you believe the fee for Hillary Clinton to speak at UNLV is fair or unfair to UNLV students? x Fair 29% x Unfair 55% The Implications Swing State Implications x Nearly three-in-five of the Independent voters who Clinton would need to capture this swing state in 2016 say the speaking fee was unfair. Independents Fair 24% Unfair 57% x Women aged 35-54 also play a key role in swing state outcomes and a majority think the fee was unfair. Women 35-54 Fair 39% Unfair 50% x Hillary will also need Hispanic support to win Nevada in 2016. Unlike Independents and women, t he majority of Hispanics believe that Hillary’s speaking fees are fair. However, she cannot rely on Hispanic support alone.

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A memo regarding the WPA survey

Transcript of Clinton Survey memo

Page 1: Clinton Survey memo

324 Second Street, SE •Washington, DC 20003 1005 Congress, Ste 495 • Austin, TX 78701

1319 Classen Drive • Oklahoma City, OK 73103 202.470.6300 • @wparesearch

www.wparesearch.com

Global Perspective. Innovative Research. Superior Results.

P O L L I N G M E M O R A N D U M

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: WPA OPINION RESEARCH

SUBJECT: HILLARY CLINTON’S UNLV SPEAKING FEE

DATE: JULY 17, 2014

The following memo highlights the key findings for a statewide survey WPA conducted in Nevada of 405 likely voters July-14-15, 2014. The full sample has a margin of error equal to ±4.9%. The Results

x The overwhelming majority of likely voters believe that Hillary Clinton’s UNLV speaking fee of $250,000 is unfair.

The following question was read to respondents.

As you may have heard, UNLV has agreed to pay Hillary Clinton two hundred and twenty five thousand dollars to speak at a school foundation fundraiser. This comes even as tuition at the university has gone up seventeen percent. Do you believe the fee for Hillary Clinton to speak at UNLV is fair or unfair to UNLV students?

x Fair 29% x Unfair 55%

The Implications Swing State Implications

x Nearly three-in-five of the Independent voters who Clinton would need to capture this swing

state in 2016 say the speaking fee was unfair.

Independents Fair 24%

Unfair 57%

x Women aged 35-54 also play a key role in swing state outcomes and a majority think the fee

was unfair.

Women 35 -54 Fair 39%

Unfair 50%

x Hillary will also need Hispanic support to win Nevada in 2016. Unlike Independents and

women, the majority of Hispanics believe that Hillary’s speaking fees are fair. However, she cannot rely on Hispanic support alone.

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Confidential Page 2 of 2 7/17/2014

Nomination Implications

x Even beyond the swing state implications, Nevada has played an important role in past Democratic nominating processes.

x While Democrats are more forgiving of Hillary’s actions, a sizeable minority (nearly two -in-five think the fee was unfair).

Democrats with Primary H istory

Fair 46%

Unfair 37%

x More than a third of Nevada Hispanics, a key group both in the nominating process and in a general election, think that the fee was unfair.

Hispanics Fair 48%

Unfair 35%

Conclusion The recent string of missteps from former Secretary of State Clinton have continued as she further alienates voters with her out-of-touch image management. Clinton has irked voters in the critical swing state of Nevada with the exorbitant fee she is charging UNLV, especially in light of the recent increases in tuition students are being forced to pay. About Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research Since 1998, WPA Opinion Research has been a leading provider of political polling for campaigns from Governor and U.S. Senate to Mayor and City Council in all 50 states and several foreign countries. In the 2011-2012 election cycle, even with Obama at the top of the ticket, more than 65% of WPA direct campaign clients won. WPA has been nationally recognized for our efforts to provide cutting edge research to help our clients win. The American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) awarded a “Pollie” to WPA for our Predictive Analytics. The award highlighted WPA’s Adaptive Sampling and Predictive Analytics methodologies which allowed us to buck national GOP polling trends and deliver industry-leading results. In rankings released by Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com of 2008 election data, Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research was statistically tied as the most accurate partisan pollster and we find that WPA was significantly more accurate than other partisan pollsters.