Clint-Wheelock-Pike Research - SG Tutorial

7/28/2019 Clint-Wheelock-Pike Research - SG Tutorial

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Smart Grid An Overview and Introduction

GridWeek Asia

J anuary 2012

Clint Wheelock

PresidentGridWeek Asia 2012


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Copyright 2012 Pike Research 2

Pike Research Overview

Smart Grid Overview

Smart Metering Market Update

Distribution Automation

Smart Grid Communications

Home Energy Management

Smart Energy and Transportation Markets

Summary

Agenda

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Pike Research is a market research and consultingfirm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean

technology markets.

The companys research methodology combinessupply-side industry analysis, end-user primaryresearch and demand assessment, and deep

examination of technology trends to provide acomprehensive viewof the Smart Energy ecosystem.

Sector Focus:

Smart Energy

Smart Grid

Smart Transportation

Smart Industry

Smart Buildings

Research Services:

Research Reports

Subscription Advisory Services

Consulting & Custom Research Go-To-MarketStrategy CustomMarketAnalysis MarketSizing & Forecasts Primary Research Technology Evaluation Commercial Due Diligence Competitive Benchmarking StrategicAdvisorySessions

Introduction

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Advisory Services

SMARTENERGY

SMARTGRID

SMARTTRANSPORTATION

Energy Management

Green IT

Smart Cities

Building Systems

Green Buildings

Electric Vehicles

Alternat ive Fuel Vehicles

Smart Meters

Smart Grid Infrastruc ture

Smart Energy Home

Microgrids

Smart Grid Security


Renewable Energy

Distributed Generation

Fuel Cells

Energy Storage

Advanced Batter ies

Utility Innovations

SMART

INDUSTRY

SMART

BUILDINGS

Bioenergy

Smart Grid IT

Industrial Innovations

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Research Methodology

Primary Research Secondary Research

Executive Interviews Vendor Br iefings Product Demos and Tours

Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data

Consumer Surveys Business Leader Surveys

Case Studies Reference Customers

INFORMATION COLLECTION

Qualitative Quantitative

Business Models & Trends Technology Issues Policy & Regulatory Factors Competitive Landscape Profiles of Key Players

Market Sizing Segmentation by Technology,

Geography, Application, etc.

Market Share Analys is Forecasts by Segment

Supply Side

Demand Side

MARKET ANALYSIS

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Smart Grid Overview

Smart Metering Market Update





Summary

Agenda

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Reduce utility operating costs

Improve grid reliabili ty

Increase energy efficiency Overall demand reduction

Reduce end-to-end system losses

Peak demand shifting (C&I, residential) Soft consumer-driven demand response

Verifiable, centrally controlled demand response

Integrate renewable generation Intermittent, bulk generation

Distributed Renewable Generation (DRG)

Support electric transportation transition Commercial and personal vehicles (PHEV)

Smart Grid Goals

More Grid

Intelligence

Less Grid

Intelligence

Sustainable, Secure, Environmentally Safe EnergySustainable, Secure, Environmentally Safe Energy

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Smart Grid should be understood as partof a broader Smart Energy ecosystem

Smart Grid in Context

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Smart Grid Vision

Source: Oncor

Generation > 30%renewable sources Secure,

self-healing,self-optimizing

grid

Self-managing,demand responsive

smart buildings

Clean transportation,leveraging clean

generation

Energy-efficient,self-managing

homes driven byconsumer choice

Unidirectional powerdistribution from centralized

bulk generation

(Source: Pike Research)GridWeek Asia 2012


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Power Network

Grid Infrastructure

Transmission Distribut ion Substat ion M et ering ConsumersSuppliers

(Source: Pike Research)

Existing Role: Reliable distribution from

Suppliers to Consumers

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Power Network

Smart Grid Adds Intelligence

Communications / Automation Network

IT/OT Infrastructure



Current goals: More efficient and flexibledistribution from Suppliers to Consumers

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Power Network

Role of SG Infrastructure




Flexible Markets (Wholesale, Retail, Ancillary, etc.)

Demand Management Services

Consumer Energy Services

Distributed Generation / VPP / Microgrids

Energy Storage

Electric Transportation


Challenge: Platform for new services, suppliers, consumers

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Smart Grid Overview

Smart Grid Infrastructure Market Update





Summary

Agenda

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Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI)

Smart meters and associated hardware installations

Electric Vehicle (EV) Management Systems

Both in-home and distributed charging infrastructure

Distribution Automation (DA) systems

Communications, sensors, equipment for distributionoptimization and management

Substation Automation (SA)

Intelligent substation components and communications

Transmission System Upgrades

High-voltage lines, FACTS equipment, and relatedcommunications gear

Smart GridInfrastructure Segments

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Global Smart GridInvestments

Transmission upgrades represent highest overall spend worldwide

Strongest innovation focus in the distribution portion of the grid

Smart meters remain high-profile, but relatively small spend

Asia, and specifically China, is largest regional driver


Smart Grid Revenue by Application, World Markets: 2011-2015

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

($Millio

ns)

AMI

EV Management Systems


Substation Automation

Transmission Upgrades

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U.S. AMI InvestmentPeakingNow

U.S. smart meter / AMI shipments expected to peak this year (2012)

Opportunities shifting toward smaller municipal and co-op utilities

Advanced smart meters (with HAN) at least 80% of shipments

RF-based systems (mesh or star) will continue to dominate

Consumer push-back larger issue than most expected

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(Penetratio

nRate)

(UnitsM

illions)


Smart Meter Shipments and Installed Base, United States: 2010-2020

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Outside the U.S.,AMI is Accelerating

European deployments accelerating in light of EU mandates

China driving massive deployments of semi-smart meters

Latin America, led by Brazil, increasing adoption

Mostly Basic (non-HAN) meters; PLC favored in Europe & China

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

North America

Europe

Asi a Pacif ic

Latin America

Middle East/Afr ica

Total

(PenetrationRate)

Smart Meter Installed Base (of all Meters) by Region, World Markets: 2010-2020



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Investment in DistributionAutomation / Optimizationincreasing significantly

Different goals andtechnologies

Auto Fault Isolation and Recovery CVR and Volt/VAR control for DR

Asset health & lifecycle monitoring

No consumer engagement !

Communicationsarchitectures hot ly debated

Integration with NAN or AMI-WAN Public vs. private networks

RF Mesh, RF Star, Wired, Satellite

Standards-based vs. proprietary

Increasing Focuson Distribution

HAN

NAN

AMI-WAN

DA-WAN

SA-WAN

DA Devices

CustomerPremises

Field Area

Substation

Meter

SA-LAN

Enterprise

SA Devices

Enterprise LAN


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Smart Grid Overview






Summary

Agenda

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Typical Grid Architecture

DistributionNetwork



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Distribution Devices

Fused Cutout Switch(www.sandc.com)

Sectionalizer(www.joslynhivoltage.com)

Automatic Recloser(www.langley-eng.co.uk)

Transformers(www.specialtytransformers.com)

Disconnect Switch(www.sandc.com)

Capacitor Bank(trinetics.maysteel.com)

Fault Sensor(www.selinc.com)

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SCADA(Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition)

Substation and/or throughout distribution systems


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Reliability and Resiliency Planning and maintenance

Outage anticipation & awareness

Outage recovery

Outage isolation

Automated reconfiguration

Efficiency

Capacity Planning & Awareness

Load sharing / shifting

Distributed Generation Conventional and Renewable

Microgrids

Residential

Support / integration of Demand Response

PHEVs

Distribution System Challenges

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VAR Control - VAR (voltage-ampere reactive) is measure of reactive power,more of which is needed to maintain a given voltage on distribution line as thelength of that line increases

Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) Dynamically adjust voltage to withinspecifications based on actual load characteristics rather than statically set withconservative guard bands

Advanced DA Application:Volt-VAR Control Systems

(Source: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

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Sensors

Types of sensors and equipment varies widely, as do typical applications

Communications

Technologies, bandwidth, etc. also varies widely

RF Mesh, MAS radio, POTS, fiber, Cellular

Centralized vs. Autonomous control

Sectionalizers, reclosers, often work autonomously, only reporting status tocontrol center

Some operate without communications at all, with external sensors used tointerpolate activity

Other related systems

Workforce management and safety

Asset management

Distribut ion Management Systems (DMS)

Distribution Automation Issues

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Management and forecasting of demand response, distributedgeneration, and storage resources

Dispatch of active and reactive power (through aggregation ofDER) for optimization of losses and voltage profile

Optimal operation of voltage control and distributionautomation

Detection, isolation, and response to faults, vulnerabili ties, andthreats

State estimation to facili tate accurate and near real-time

reliabili ty and security assessment Integration of network models, market models, and renewable

resource models

DMS Requirements

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Smart Grid Overview






Summary

Agenda

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28Copyright 2012 Pike Research

CommunicationsInfrastructure

HAN

AMI-WAN

SA-LAN

Enterprise

SA Devices

DA-WAN

DA Devices

Enterprise LAN

SA-WAN

NAN

Meter

Metering Distribution Substation


HAN

NAN

AMI-WAN

DA-WAN

SA-WAN

DA Devices

Customer Premises

Field Area

Substation

Meter

SA-LAN

Enterprise

SA Devices

Enterprise LAN

Silo Infrastructure Layered Infrastructure

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Strong communications node growth, driven by AMI deployments

Networking Node Forecast

Communications Node Forecast by Application, World Markets: 2009-2016


-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Thousands)

SA-WAN

DA-WAN

AMI-WAN

AMI-NAN

HAN

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Communications Diversity

Private / Public

Wired /

Wireless Standard /

Proprietary

Geographic

Vendors

Management

AMI-NAN Communications Technologies, World Markets: 2009-2016


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Other

WiMAX

Proprietary Pt2MPt

Microwave Pt2Pt

Wi-Fi

802.15.4 MeshProprietary Mesh

Other

BPL

N-PLC

Copper

Fiber

Other

4G2G/3G

Broadband

TDM

POTS

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Smart Grid CommunicationsDevices

31

HN - HAN Node

AN - AMI Node

AC - AMI Concentrator

NI - Network Interface Converter

SR - Substation Router

SS - Substation Ethernet Switch

WB - WAN Backbone

GR - Generalized Grid Router

HAN

HN

AN

NAN

AMI-WAN

DA-WANAC

NI

SA-WAN

WB SR SS

NI

NI

Enterprise LAN

WB

GR

GR

GR

RTU, IEDs

RTU, IEDs

GR

GR

Premises

Network

Field Area

Networks

Substation LAN

Wide AreaNetwork


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Revenue growth tempered by lower ASP mix

Smart Grid Network DeviceForecast

Communications Device Revenue Forecast by Device Type, World Market: 2009-2016


-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Thousands)

GeneralizedGrid Router

WANBackbone

SubstationEthernetSwitchSubstationRouter

Network

InterfaceConverterAMIConcentrator

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Rapid Evolution toward standards (IP) IEEE 802.15.4g Smart Utility Network for 900MHz RF Mesh

Private WiMAX for DA-WAN, AMI-WAN applications

Major push by publ ic network carriers

Improved pricing, marketing, broader services

Preparation for focused 4G services

Vendor push for end-to-end solutions

As AMI growth slows, push for growth in DA-WAN, other applications

Partnerships (Ex: Tropos with Itron/Elster, Aclara with Firetide)

Acquisitions (Cisco/Arch Rock, etc.)

RF Mesh still dominant, but under some pressure Consumer health concerns; bandwidth/latency concerns for DA-WAN

New platforms for secure distributed applications

Open platforms in DA-WAN (Grid Net, Echelon, SmartSynch, Ambient)

Smart Grid CommunicationsTrends

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Smart Grid Overview






Summary

Agenda

GridWeek Asia 2012

id f


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Util ity energy applications Information gathered by utility via smart meters and provided

back to customers (often day-behind data)

Web-based portal leveraging smart meter data

Mobile applications (iPhone, Android, etc.)

Home energy awareness In-home measurement and/or display devices

Standalone systems or connected via smart meters

Home energy management Active management of home energy devices, such as HVAC, hot

water, pool/spa, appliances Standalone Home Automation systems

Utility-based Home Area Network systems

3rd-party energy management services

Wide Range of HEMSolutions

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HEM Enabling Technologies

Paper BillsPaper Bills

Neighbor

Comparisons

Consumption

TrendsWeb

Portal

Web

Portal

Neighbor

Tracking

Consumption

Trends

Social

Networking

In-Home

Display

In-Home

Display

Meter-based

Consumption

TOU Pricing

Orb

Bill-to-Date

Information

Standalone

HEM

Standalone

HEM

Device-level

Tracking

Consumption

Estimation

AutomaticDevice Control

HAN /

HEM

HAN /

HEM

DR Response /

Load Control

Auto Pricing

Response

Home Automation

Control

Consumer

Energy

Savings

Connectivity

Better Technology Offers Greater Energy Savings



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Home Area Networking

Home Area Networks (HAN) connect various in-home devices to smart grid

ZigBee wireless technology is dominant HAN technology, with 802.11 Wi-Fi andHomePlug Power Line Carrier also emerging to play a role

Underlying business models and regulatory requirements remain uncertain

Many implementation options are possible; future unclear

NAN

HAN

Gas Meter

Smart

Appliances

PCT

In-Home

Display

Smart

Meter

HVAC

System

Water Meter

WAN

Utility Enterprise Systems



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Utility Managed HAN

NANUtility

HANUtility ICT

Systems

Gas Meter

Smart

Appliances

PCTAdvanced

Smart

Meter

Load Control

IHD

Smart Plugs

Utility

Consumer

3rd-Party

Utility WebPortal

Smart

Phone

PC

Device Authentication

Security

Utility-Device Communications (pricing, DR, etc.)

Two-way command confirmation

Management Key

Home

Utility

3rd-Party

Internet

Access

3rd-Party Web

Portal


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Utility Managed Gateway

NANConsumer

HANUtility ICT

Systems

Gas Meter

Smart

Appliances

PCTAdvanced

Smart

Meter

Load Control

IHD

Smart Plugs

Utility

Consumer

3rd-Party

Utility WebPortal

Smart Phone

PC


Security



Management Key

Home

Utility

3rd-Party 3rd-Party

Services

Internet

Access

3rd-Party Web

Portal

Energy

Management

Gateway


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3rd-Party Managed Gateway

NANConsumer

HANUtility ICT

Systems

Gas Meter

Smart

Appliances

PCTBasicSmart

Meter

Load Control

IHD

Smart Plugs

Utility

Consumer

3rd-Party

Utility WebPortal

Smart Phone

PC

Interval Meter Reading

Management Key

Home

Utility

3rd-Party 3rd-Party

Services

Internet

Access

3rd-Party Web

Portal

Energy

Management

Gateway


Security




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HAN without Smart Meter

Consumer

HANUtility ICT

Systems

Gas Meter

Smart

Appliances

PCT

AMR

Meter

Load Control

IHD

Smart Plugs

Utility

Consumer

3rd-Party

Utility WebPortal

Smart Phone

PC

Basic Meter Reading

Management Key

Home

Utility

3rd-Party 3rd-Party

Services

Internet

Access

3rd-Party Web

Portal

Energy

Management

Gateway


Security




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Smart Appl iances offer energy management links to HAN or internet

In the United States, ARRA stimulus in itiatives driving some key pilots

Some major vendors (LG, Whirlpool, GE) providing early units

Standards for HAN connectivi ty moving toward ZigBee and HomePlug

Market likely to be slowed by slow HAN adoption by uti lities


Smart Appliances

Smart Appl iance Market Value, World Markets: 2010-2019

$40 $509$984

$2,150

$3,772

$6,266

$9,773

$14,597

$19,942

$26,149

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

($Millions)

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Utilities Directly or through retail rebate programs

Telecom/Cable operators Example: Verizon and Time Warner offering home

energy management as part of communicationsservices

Other Service providers Home alarm companies such as ADT

Independent consumer products companies Current Cost, others in Europe

Who Are Providing HEMs?

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Smart Grid Overview






Summary

Agenda

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Wind is the leading non-hydro renewable energy source; mature, mainstream

Costs near grid-parity in some regions, though stil l policy / subsidy dependent

China leads g lobal market, Europe steady, North America falling precipitously

Intermit tency, time-of-day, and transmission issues remain s igni ficant concerns

Cumulative Wind Power Generation Capacity by Region, Baseline Scenario, World Markets:

2008-2017


Renewable Energy: Wind

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Middle East and Africa Onshore Latin America OffshoreLatin America Onshore Asia Pacific Offshore

Asia Paci fic Onshore North Amer ica OffshoreNorth America Onshore Europe Offshore

(MW)

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Distributed


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Solar PV is dominant distributed renewable energy resource

PV market remains dependent on incentives, but nearing grid-parity

Policy changes, module oversupply, and public debt worries impact market

New business models represent a fast-growing PV segment

Solar leasing, utility-owned distributed assets, Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)

DRG integration a continuing, if elusive, goal for Smart Grid technologies


DistributedRenewable Energy

Annual RDEG Capacity Additions, World Markets: 2009-2015

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(MW)

North America Europe Asia ROW GridWeek Asia 2012


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Energy storage systems (ESS) oriented for long duration or ancil lary services Long duration applications: bulk storage, renewable generation time-shifting

Ancillary Services applications: frequency regulation, power quality, load following

Integration of renewable generation is a key, but not only, driver for ESS

Barriers include market structures, unaligned benefits, and multiple costs

Technologies are rapidly evolving and commercializing, blurring applications


Energy Storage Systems

ESS Segmentation by Technology: 2011

CAES2,119

Flow battery147

Hydrogen1

Li-ion138

NaS battery1,399

Lead/Carbon4

NiCd

26Flywheel47Superconducter0

Pumped Storage5,250

(MW)

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Copyright 2012 Pike Research 48(Source: Pike Research)

Electric Vehicles

Electrified Vehicle Sales by Category, World Markets: 2011-2017

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

(Vehicles)

HEV

PHEV

BEV

Electrif ied vehicle sales (HEV/PHEV/BEV) wi ll nearly t riple in volume through 2017 Hybrids wi ll dominate throughout forecast period

U.S. market to remain the largest through 2017; China the fastest growing

PHEVs, with their longer range, expected to outpace BEV sales by 2.5 to 1

Cumulative North American PEVs to reach 1M vehicles by 2016, concentrated in CA, NY, FL, TX, IL

Medium & heavy duty HEV/PHEV/BEV trucks wil l surpass 100,000 units by 2015

Strong fuel economy improvements (25% to 40%), but high incremental costs ($45,000)

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EV Supply


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EV SupplyEquipment and IT

EV Charging Equipment Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: 2011-2017

Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) market to reach ~2.0M uni ts in 2017 By 2017, Public EVSE (Asia, Europe) majority of 6.7M installed units; residential will be 67% of U.S. unit

sales

Profitable business models for operating publ ic EVSEs remain undefined

DC charging standards batt le (CHAdeMO vs. SAE) is slowing market

Risk of in tensifying grid peak demand drives IT investment for PEV

management


-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2011E 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Afr ica/Middle East

Asia Pacif ic

Eastern Europe

Western Europe

Latin America

North America(Units)

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Smart Grid:


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Smart Grid:Applications and IT

Total Virtual Power Plant Capacity, World Markets: 2011-2017


Applicat ion integration required to unlock smart gr id value and ut ilityinnovation

Demand Response maturing, evolving, and dissolving into smart ecosystem Becoming a feature within smart buildings management, grid management, AMI applications

Virtual Power Plant concepts leverage emerging smart grid infrastructure Integrates and manages diverse resources: DRG, demand response, storage, EV infrastructure

Business process transformation is upending existing IT applications

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

(MW

)

Base

Average

Aggressive

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Smart Grid Overview




Home Energy Management Issues


Summary

Agenda

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Power Network

So Why Smart Grid?



Transmission Distribut ion Substat ion M et ering Consumers

Suppliers


Energy Management

Billing

Reliability

Opex Reduction

Safety

Efficiency

Customer Service

Demand Response

Market Operation

Forecasting

Collections

Lower Energy Costs

Own Generation

PEVsProfitability

Regulatory GoalsRenewables

Energy Independence Security Carbon Reduction

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Power Network

Ultimately All Data Driven

Consumption

Use Patterns

Personal Info

Financial Info





Real-time network operations info

Asset info

Embedded info (field devices, etc.)

Financial / enterprise information

Workforce information

Operations

Markets

Forecasting

Assets

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Are We There Yet?

Still a long journey ahead

But smart griddeployment penetration

reaching show me

stage

Smart Energy Ecosystemopportunities are ripening

Smart Homes

Smart Buildings

Clean Transportation

Renewable generation

Generation > 30%

renewable sources

Secure,self-healing,

self-optimizing grid

Self-managing,demand responsive

smart buildings

Clean transportation,leveraging clean

generation

Energy-efficient,self-managing

homes drivenbyconsumer choice

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Discussion

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C t t U


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