Climatic tendencies in Spain and their impacts on tourism

Peter Domonkos1, Xavier Farré2 and Juan Antonio Duro2 1University Rovira i Virgili, Centre for Climate Change (C3), Tortosa, Spain, peter.domonkos@urv.cat

2University Rovira i Virgili, Dept. of Economics, Reus, Spain, juanantonio.duro@urv.cat

ObjectiveThe goal of this study is to examine the climatic conditions and their tendencies from the pointof view of their potential impact on tourism in Spain. It is the continuation of our earlier studies(e.g. Domonkos et al. 2012), in which the most important climatic variables were examinedone-by-one. Here, the joint potential of climatic characteristics is examined with theconstruction of a simple tourism - climate index.

Data and MethodsObserved climate data of 12 stations (1951-2011), published by the Spanish MeteorologicalAgency, and hotel occupancy data (HN) in Spanish provinces (1999-2010, Spanish NationalInstitute, Encuesta de Ocupación Hotelera) have been used. The six provinces of the highestHN for the Mediterranean areas and Canaries and the six provinces of the highest HN for theinterior of the peninsula and Atlantic coast had been selected for the analysis. The selectedclimate stations are located in the most important tourists’ destinations of the provinces. Thedata has monthly resolution. Climate data had been quality controlled, temperature data qualitycontrolled and homogenised before their use for the study. Climate potential for tourism is often evaluated with tourism-climate indices (e.g. Amelungand Moreno, 2012), which consider the joint effect of various climatic factors. We have chosento apply a simple index, because we have tourism data only for provinces (instead of specificsites), and the dataset we can use also has other limitations. Following the idea of Eugenio-Martin and Campos-Soria (2010) we introduce the simplified tourism climate index (TCS),which evaluates jointly the temperature, precipitation and wind climate. TCS shows the numberof months in years for which the climatic conditions are favourable for tourism. Our definition(below) differs from that of Eugenio-Martin and Campos-Soria (2010) in two details, there wewill show further references. A month is favourable for tourism if each of the following conditions is satisfied:i) mean temperature is at least 15°C;ii) mean of daily maximum temperatures is lower than 30.5°C (Maddison, 2001);iii) mean wind speed is lower than 8 m/s (Ibarra, 2011);iv) number of rainy days ≤ 10, or the monthly precipitation total < 60 mm.

Results and DiscussionTable 1 shows the mean HN of foreign visitors and TCS for the twelve Spanish provincesbetween 1999-2010. It is striking from the table that although cultural tourism is important inSpain, beach tourism is overwhelmingly dominant. The variation of HN according to provincesis high due to the differences in the attractiveness of tourist destinations. Table 1 shows that the climate of Spain is generally favourable for tourism at least in someparts of the year, since TCS is usually around or above 3. The climatic potential is particularlygood in the Mediterranean regions and Canaries where TCS reaches 4-7. On the other hand,climate is not always a decisive factor and for instance the frequent rainy weather of SanSebastian (Vizcaya-Guipuzcoa) does not deter visitors. Note that in Canaries the unfavourableweather is rare throughout the year, except the frequent strong winds predominantly in summer. In the further analysis the tourism - climate relation is examined with the data for theprovinces of Table 1. Fig. 1 shows the variation of TCS between 1951-2011. Canaries wasomitted from this calculation due to its specific climate. Fig. 1 shows that TCS has slightlydecreased in the Mediterranean areas, but slightly increased in the other provinces. The trendsare not significant statistically, which fact indicates that the recent warming has not beensignificant effect on the climatic potential for tourism in Spain. Midsummer (July and August) temperatures tend to be higher than the optimum in theMediterranean regions and Canaries, Fig. 2 shows their variation between 1951-2011.Midsummer temperatures rose particularly between 1970 and 1990 and the rising trend for theentire period examined is statistically significant in each province. In the recent decade,midsummer temperatures were often 1.5-2.0°C higher than 50-60 years ago and they areclearly higher than the optimum of tourists’ demand (around 23°C, Lise and Tol, 2002). YetJuly and August is still the most preferred season of beach tourism (Fig. 3), although thesharpness of midsummer peak is very different according to provinces. The fact is that beachtourism in July and August is still growing in Spain and with higher rate than in other seasonsor the other branches of tourism (Domonkos et al. 2012). This increase indicates that slightheat stress is definitely favourable for beach tourism, particularly for hotel tourism, sinceSpanish hotels are generally air conditioned. Summarising, Spain can remain an attractive tourist destination in warming climate, but themaintenance of high quality services for the growing number of tourists under the changingclimate will be a challenge for the tourism management.

Table 1. Million hotel nights (annual mean) of foreign visitors (HN) and simplified tourism climate index (TCS) for twelve Spanish provinces, 1999-2010. Note that two provinces of small areas were unified for Canaries (St. Cruz de Tenerife and Las Palmas) and Vizcaya (Guipuzcoa and Vizcaya).

Conclusions • Climate in Spain is generally favourable for tourism and it is

particularly favourable in the Mediterranean areas and in theCanaries.

• Climate is not always a decisive factor in tourists’destination choice.

• Climate has warmed in Spain in the last 60 years, but slightheat stress can be favourable for beach tourism and summertourism is still increasing in the Mediterranean provinces.

• The maintenance of high quality services for the growingnumber of tourists under the changing climate will be achallenge for the tourism management.

Acknowledgements The research was supported by the Spanish project “Tourism, Environment and Politics” ECO 2010-18158.

Mediterranean coast, Balearics and Canaries

Interior of the peninsula and Atlantic coast

province HN TCS province HN TCS

Balearics 44.5 4.4 Madrid 6.86 2.9

Canaries 34.0 6.8 Sevilla 1.89 3.8

Barcelona 13.2 5.4 Granada 1.66 2.8

Malaga 10.1 5.8 Vizcaya 0.94 1.3

Girona 7.7 4.2 Coruña 0.60 3.0

Alicante 7.2 6.3 Cordoba 0.44 2.9

Figure 1. Simplified tourism climate index (TCS) for the Mediterranean coast and Balearics (blue), and for the interior of peninsula and Atlantic coast (brown).

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Figure 2. Variation of mean midsummer temperature (July and August) in the Mediterranean provinces and Canaries, 1951-2011.

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Figure 3. Seasonal cycle of hotel occupation by foreign visitors (HN) in three Mediterranean provinces and Canaries, 1999-2010.

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