Climate.overview

8/6/2019 Climate.overview

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NOAA Climate Program: Status and Directions

Dave GoodrichNOAA Climate Program Office

NOAA Fisheries Leadership CouncilNovember 30, 2004


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Program Plan Overview

Mission Goal 2 - Climate

Understand climate variability and changeto enhance societys ability to plan and respond.

OUTCOMES

A predictive understanding of the global climate systemwith quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions on timescales of weeks to decades.

Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAAs climate products intotheir decisions and plans.


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Program Plan Objectives

Describe and understand the state of the climate system throughintegrated observations, analysis, and data stewardship.

Reduce uncertainty in climate projections through timely information on

the forcing and feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earths climate. Improve climate predictive capability from weeks to decades, with anincreased range of applicability for management and policy decisions.

Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability andchange in marine ecosystems.

Increase number and use of climate products and services to enhancepublic and private sector decision making.


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Climate Program Structure

Climate Program Director: Chet Koblinsky

Climate Program Element Program Manager 1. Observations and Analysis Tom Karl/NESDIS2. Climate Forcing Dan Albritton/OAR3. Predictions and Projections Ants Leetmaa/OAR4. Climate and Ecosystems Ned Cyr/NMFS

5. Regional Decision Support Bob Livezey/NWS


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Argo Status - November 2004


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Observations and Analysis

Objectives

Describe and understand the state of the climate system through integrated observations, analysis, and data stewardship:

A tiered and integrated observational network that provides sustained global and U.S.monitoring of key climate related parameters;

An end-to-end data stewardship system to provide climate quality information andrespond to the projected data growth rates;

Provide sophisticated analyses to differentiate climate variability and change as a result of natural processes and human activities.

Desired End-State: Integrated and complete ocean and surface, upper air and spaceobserving systems in support of the mission outcome a predictive understanding of theglobal climate system :

FY07: Improve climate forecast through observing and data systems with full coverage of continental US atmosphere and sparse coverage of global ocean, as well as atmosphericreanalysis of 1920s to 2000.

FY11: Significantly improve global climate forecast with integrated observing and datasystems for US atmosphere and global oceans and atmosphere-ocean reanalysis andattribution studies of the 20th century.


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Reduce uncertainty in climate projections through timely information on the forcingsand feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earth's climate: Attain a timely understanding of atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide trends, both natural and

human, that may be directly applied to climate projection and to policy decisions regarding climatemanagement that are related to limiting unwanted effects of future climate change.

Provide timely and adequate information on the climate roles of the radiatively important traceatmospheric species (e.g., fine-particle aerosols and ozone) that is needed to broaden the suite of

non-carbon options available for policy support regarding the climate change issue.

Desired End-State: The understanding needed to link emissions to the radiative forcing of climate change for science-based decision support in support of the mission outcome a predictiveunderstanding of the global climate system :

FY07: Improve long-term projections on the future state of the climate understanding of aerosol impactson Earths radiative balance and monitoring carbon over most of North America at coarse resolution.

FY11: Improve projections of the future state of the climate through better understanding of NorthAmerican carbon sources and sinks and improved parameterizations of aerosol and water vapor impacts on the Earths radiative balance

Climate Forcing Objectives


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Develop a predictive understanding of the global climate system on timescales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed decisions

Improve intraseasonal and interannual climate predictions to enable regional and national managersto better plan for the impacts of climate variability and change

Provide improved regional, national, and international climate assessments and projections tosupport policy decisions with objective information.

Desired End-State: A seamless suite of forecasts (e.g. outlooks and projections) onintraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and multi-decadal timescales and applications usingensembles of multiple climate models in support of the mission outcome a predictiveunderstanding of the global climate system :

FY07: Provide regional resolution forecasts to decision makers through increased computer and model

capacity.FY11: Provide a broader suite of climate forecast products and services through development of Earth

System Model.

Predictions and ProjectionsObjectives


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Warm phase Cool phase

Climate Regime Shifts and FisheriesHigh vs. low productivity associated with climate regimesNeed to manage fish stocks with this new paradigm

Warm phaseCool phase


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Climate Impacts on Ecosystems

Objectives

Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marineecosystems

Predict the probable consequences of global climate change on ecological systems and their livingresources

Deliver to fisheries and coastal zone managers the knowledge and tools needed to incorporateclimate variability into the management of living marine and coastal resources.

Develop indicators of climate variability that affect coastal and marine living resources.

Desired End-State: An ability to predict probable consequences of global climate change on ecologicalsystems and living resources in support of of the mission outcome a predictive understanding of theglobal climate system :

FY07: Increase understanding of climate decadal change impacts on North Pacific marine ecosystems over a wider geographic extent.

FY11: Better understanding of place-based impacts of climate variability and change on North Pacificecosystems and climate-induced sea level inundation on coastal ecosystems in southeastern US.


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Regional Decision Support

Objectives

Increase number and use of climate products and services to enhance public and private sector decision making

The climate literate public effectively incorporating NOAAs climate products into their regular operations.

Enhanced public and private sector performance through better access, understanding,

and use of climate information in planning and decision making. An operational infrastructure to continually infuse information to decision makers throughproduct development and delivery.

A responsive research enterprise focused on identifying the nations principal climatesensitive resource challenges and opportunities and creating knowledge and tools usefulto expanded options for decision makers.

Desired End-State: A mature and efficient system for understanding and respondingto stakeholder needs for products and services in support of mission outcome 2 toincorporate NOAA products into plans and decisions:

FY07: Improve coordination of research, transition, and operational products and services andbegin to evaluate outcomes

FY11 : Expand and improve regional and national services, based on evaluation, such thatoperations and management in climate sensitive sectors is markedly improved

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