Climate  Change  Risk  and  the  Ski  Industry:  An  Overview  of  North  American  Markets  

Frozen  Luleå  2016  –  Luleå,  May  2016  

Daniel  Sco@  Research  Chair  in  Global  Change  and  Tourism  

Direct  of  the  Interdisciplinary  Centre  on  Climate  Change    

Outline  

•  Evolving  Ski  Industry  QuesGons  about  Climate  Change  Risks  

•  Climate  Change  Risk  of  North  American  Ski  Markets  o  SkiSim  ski  opera;ons  model  o  Climate  change  analogue  seasons  o  A  coupled  ski  opera;ons-­‐skier  demand  model  

 

•  The  Future  of  the  Winter  Olympics  in  a  Warmer  World  

Evolving  QuesGons  on  Ski  Industry  Climate  

Change  Risk  

Ski  Industry  QuesGons  in  2000  1.  Combat  misinforma;on  in  the  media  2.  Science-­‐based  risk  assessment  with  adap;ve  

capacity  of  snowmaking  3.  Rela;ve  climate  change  risk  of  compe;tors  4.  How  will  skiers  adapt  to  changing  snow  condi;ons  

Other  Stakeholders  are  Now  Asking  QuesGons  Investors/Banks,  Communi;es/Governments,    

Ski  Organiza;ons  and  Companies,  Sports  Associa;ons    Environmental  Groups,  Real-­‐Estate  Associa;ons  

Headlines  Ma@er!:  Climate  Change  is  Influencing  Investment  Decisions  

- 34 -

Figure 2: Simulated Change in Housing Values by 2050

Note: Based on IPCC ensemble average of general circulation models, high A2 emissions

scenario. Source:  Federal  Reserve  Bank  of  San  Francisco  2009  

Expected  decrease  in  the  value  of  vacaGon  properGes  near  ski  resorts  under  +2°C  

Ski Area Characteristics

(snowmaking & lift capacity)

Ministry of Tourism & Environment

(daily ski conditions, water use, visitation patterns)

SkiSim 2.0

differential snowmaking capacity and new ‘emergency snowmaking’

decision rules

Snow Model

Snowmaking Module

Climate Station/Gridded Data

(daily T&P 1981-2010)

Opera;ons  Outputs:  •  Season  length  •  Open/closed  dates  •  Probability  of  being  open  

during  key  holiday  weeks  •  Snowmaking  requirements  

Number of Skiers in Simulation

(initial spatial distribution)

Ski Areas Open

Substitution Behaviour Rules

Agent-Based Model

Spatial: Redistribution to open ski areas

Temporal: Unmet

demand pool

Activity: Agent leaves simulation

(unmet demand)

Skier Survey (n=2448 at 10 resorts)

Visita;on  Outputs:  •  System  wide  skier  visits  •  Ski  area  market  share  

 •  Transferred  demand  •  Days  with  crowding  

 •  Unmet  demand  

Climate  Change  Analogues  &  

Integrated  Model  Climate Change Scenarios (2050s)

(CMIP-5 ensemble, RCP 2.6 and 8.5, downscaled with LARS-WG)

Ski Resorts Data

(season segments, resort size, visits)

CSC Future Ski Market Scenarios

(2040s) (Trend, Intervention Mid-Point)

North  American  Regional  Ski  Markets  

Pacific  West  &  Rocky  Mountains  

Midwest  &    Great  Lakes  

New  England  &  Quebec  44.3  million  

skier  visits/year  snowmaking  

coverage  ~15%  10.1  million  

skier  visits/year  snowmaking  

coverage  >85%    

24.1  million  skier  visits/year  snowmaking  

coverage  >80%  

California  Snow  

Drought  

Lake  Tahoe  2014-­‐15  snowfall  =  126″₺  (3.2m)  (least  on  record)  Average  snowfall  as  of  May  1st  =  396″₺  (10.1m)  

USA  Regional  Market  Inter-­‐comparison:  Trends  in  Average  Season  Length  and  Variability  

0"

20"

40"

60"

80"

100"

120"

140"

160"

Northeast" Southeast" Midwest" Rocky"Mtn" Pacific"West"

Season

'Len

gth'(days)'

1983@89"

1990s"

2000s"

2010@14"

•  Average  season  length  increased  in  1990s  &  2000s,  but  began  to  decline  in  2010s  •  Variability  followed  similar  paeern,  decreasing  in  2000s,  but  increasing  in  2010s  •  Have  we  surpassed  a  climate  ;pping  point  in  the  ski  industry?  

Great  Lakes-­‐Quebec-­‐New  England  Market  Risk  Inter-­‐comparison  

-­‐22%   -­‐20%  -­‐15%  

Average  Ski  Season  Length  

Standardized    Applica;on  of  SkiSim  2.0  with  Advanced  Snowmaking    Capacity  Under  RCP  8.5  Scenario  for  the  2050s  

Snowmaking  Requirements  

+143%   +331%  

+161%  

Number  of  Ski  Areas:    New  England  =  99,  Ontario  =  37,  Quebec  =  39  

Changes  in  Snowmaking  Requirements  at  Individual  Ski  Areas  in  Ontario  

USA  Regional  Market  Inter-­‐comparison:  RelaGve  Change  in  Season  Length  

Standardized  Applica;on  of  SkiSim  2.0  at  350  Ski  Areas  with  Advanced  Snowmaking  Capacity  Using  4km2  resolu;on  RCMs  (9)  with  a  RCP  8.5  Scenario  for  2011-­‐2050    

FGOALS  RCM  (warmest  scenario)  

‘Is  Colorado’s  Ski  Industry  Doomed  Due  to  Global  Warming?’  

-­‐Associated  Press  2008    

‘Ski  industry  becomes  potenGally  unviable  by  2050s’  

-­‐Zimmerman  et  al.  2006  

Will  global  warming  kill  off  skiing  in  North  America?  

-­‐Telegraph,  May  2015  

Ontario  Ski  Areas  (2011-­‐12  Season)  •  average  ski  season  shortened  16  days  (-­‐17%)    

–  small  resorts  (-­‐24%)  vs  large  size  resorts  (-­‐15%)  •  number  of  open  ski  slopes  (skiable  terrain)  was  reduced  (average  of  only  

69%  were  open)  •  number  of  operaGng  libs  was  substan;ally  reduced    (for  1/3  of  the  

season,  less  than  50%  were  open)  •  early  season  snowmaking  increased  over  300%,  late  season  ended  

early  because  uneconomic  /  not  possible  •  24%  decrease  in  the  number  efficient  snowmaking  days  •  Degraded  quality  of  snow  condiGons,  incidence  of  crowding  increased  •   skier  visits  decreased  -­‐10%  

–  small  ski  areas  (-­‐20%)  vs  large  resorts  (-­‐8%)  

Record  Warm  Winters:    What  Can  They  Tell  Us  

About  Climate  Change  Risk?  

Dec-­‐April  was  +3.6°C  warmer  than  clima;c  

normal,  with  a  decrease  in  natural  snowfall  of  20%  

Slopes  OperaGng  at  All  Ontario  Ski  Areas  

Libs  OperaGng  at  All  Ontario  Ski  Areas  

-­‐46%  -­‐36%  

Changes  in  Reported  Snow  CondiGons:  Reduced  Snow  Quality  

Integrated  Ski  OperaGons  and  Skier  Demand  Model  (Ontario  Market)  

Season  Type   OSRA  Reported  (million)  

ABM-­‐Simulated  (million)  

%  Difference  

Normal  (2010-­‐11)   3.362   3.148   -­‐6.3%  

Warm  (2011-­‐12)   3.028   2.950   -­‐2.6%  

Cold  (2013-­‐14)   3.067   3.080   +0.4%  

System-­‐Wide  Skier  Visits    (Observed  vs  Agent-­‐Based  Model  Simula;on)  

Modeled  Climate  Variability  with  3  Types  of  Winters:  •  climaGcally  normal  winter  (2010-­‐11)  -­‐  for  1981-­‐2010  baseline    •  record  warm  winter  (2011-­‐12)  –  a  climate  change  analogue  for  

normal  with  in  2050s  (under  higher  emission  scenario)  •  cool/cold  winter  (2013-­‐14)  -­‐  coldest  in  ~20  years  

Agent-­‐Based  Model  Results:  System-­‐Wide  Skier  Visits  in  Ontario  (millions)  

Market    Development    Scenario  (2040s)  

2050s  Climate  Scenario  (RCP8.5)  

With  Current  Snowmaking  Capacity  

Normal   Warm   Cool  

Simulated  Baseline  (2010s)   3.148  million   2.950  million   3.080  million  

Trend  (-­‐3%  market  decline)   2.804  (-­‐11%)   0.664  (-­‐77%)   2.813  (-­‐9%)    

Mid-­‐Point  (+59%  market  growth)   4.598  (+46%)   1.088  (-­‐63%)   4.613  (+49%)  

IntervenGon  (+146%  market  growth)   7.108  (+125%)   1.684  (-­‐43%)   7.131  (+131%)  

Conclusions  

 •  The  North  American  ski  industry  is  not  doomed  by  climate  change  •  More  snowmaking  capacity  at  smaller  resorts  did  not  improve                

system-­‐wide  visita;on    •  Resorts  with  advanced  snowmaking  can  cope  with  normal  &  cool  winters  •  Future  warm  winters  exceed  the  limits  of  snowmaking  adapta;on  and  

major  impact  on  skier  visita;on  (‘fat  tail’  of  climate  change  =  ‘yard  sale’  for  skiing)  

•  Ski  demand  is  fairly  resilient  under  marginal  condi;ons  •  Des;na;on  subs;tu;on  causes  significant  crowding  and  conges;on  •  Infrastructure  investment  is  needed  at  ‘go  to’  resorts  to  take  advantage  

of  transferred  ski  demand  and  peak  demand  periods  to  off-­‐set  poor  years  and  maintain  visitor  experience  

•  Market  development  is  a  key  adapta;on  strategy  

Under  a  Warmer  Climate    Change  Scenario  (RCP  8.5)  

The  Future  of  the  Winter  Olympics    in  a  Warmer  World  

Snow  reliability  and  can  sufficient  snow  be  made  

and  maintained?    

[>90%  probability  of  snow  depth  ≥30  cm  with  advanced  

snowmaking]  

Are  thermal  condi;ons  suitable  for  elite  winter  

sport  (i.e.,  safe  and  fair  snow  condi;ons,  abnormal  air  

temperatures  for  compe;;on)?  

 [>90%  probability  of  minimum  daily  temperatures  of  ≤0°C]  

Risk  Assessment  Criteria    

Climate  AdaptaGon  at  the  Winter  Olympics  

Climate  Suitability  of  Winter  Olympics  LocaGons  for  Future  Games  

For  more  informaGon:            Daniel  Scoe  Research  Chair  in  Global  Change  and  Tourism  &  Execu;ve  Director  of  the  Interdisciplinary  Centre  on  Climate  Change      daniel.scoe@uwaterloo.ca        

41Who’s doing what?

1992

Patrick Leung (BA ’92, Chartered

Accountancy; MAcc ’92, Accounting)

has been appointed chief financial

officer for GuestLogix Inc.

1993

Mark Conrad (BASc ’93, Civil

Engineering; MASc ’97, Civil

Engineering) was appointed

principal to Delcan.

1995

Glenn Feltham (PhD ’95,

Accounting) has been appointed

member of the Standards Council

of Canada.

1996

Shelley (Anne Michelle)

Macbeth (BA ’96, Psychology) is

the owner of Blue Heron Books

in Uxbridge, Ont. Her store has

been named Canadian Bookseller

of the Year 2012 by the Canadian

Booksellers Association, and listed

as one of the best bookstores in

North America by the Globe and

Mail. It was also recognized as one

of the top 10 favourite Canadian

bookstores by the CBC.

Paul Croft (BES ’96, Urban &

Regional Planning) was appointed

principal at Delcan.

1998

Andrew Lawrence (BASc ’98, Civil

Engineering) has been recognized as

an associate in the TLC Engineering

for Architecture board of directors.

1999

Jennifer Sheridan (BA ’99, English

Rhetoric and Professional Writing)

has won “Entrepreneur of the

Year 2013“ at the FDM everywoman

in Technology Awards in London,

England.

2000

Sarah Tate, (nee Burke) (BA ’00,

English Language and Literature)

talks about her role as executive

director of Habitat For Humanity,

Peterborough and District.

Matt Farrell (BA ’00, Economics),

now a professor at Fanshawe

College, is teaching Canada’s first

Massive Open Online Course (MOOC)

delivered by a community college.

2001

Jennifer Lapierre (BSc ’01; MSc ’03,

Biology) hopes her research into

the sleep physiology of northern

fur seals will help solve human

sleep disorders.

2002

Frank Clifford (Honourary

LLD, ’02) is the recipient of the

2013 Chancellor John Sweeney

Award for Catholic Leadership.

Malgosia Green (BASc ’02, Systems

Design Engineering) has been

appointed as chief product officer

of Top Hat Monocle, an education

company.

Phil Tilker (BMath ’02,

Combinatorics and Optimization;

MMath ’05, Computer Science)

played for Team Canada at

the Ford World Men’s Curling

Championship.

2003

Joseph Puopolo (BES ’03,

Planning) is a co-founder

of Printchomp, a company that

acts as an online broker for print

services.

Robert Earley (MES ’03, Planning)

recently became transport program

manager for Clean Air Asia. He

has also been appointed as the

executive director of the Beijing

Energy Network.

2005

Erik Wilhelm (BASc ’05, Chemical

Engineering; MASc ’07, Chemical

Engineering) is an assistant

professor in the Engineering

Product Development Pillar at the

Singapore University of Technology

and Design (SUTD).

2007

Diana Li (BA ’07, Psychology) has

launched MallDatabase.com, the

largest public directory of malls

in the world.

Christopher Henderson (BA ’07,

Social Development Studies) has

been appointed as head coach

for the Halton Hills Blue

Fins, effective August 1.

2008

Sara Haider (BSE ’08, Software

Engineering/Cognitive Science) is

a lead software engineer at Twitter.

Dustin Little (BSc ’08, Biochemistry)

has won the Lindau Award, a

prestigious national prize that will

have him rubbing elbows with

Nobel laureates.

Jeffrey McLarty (BASc ’08,

Mechatronics Engineering)

and Danilo Malanczyj (BASc ’09,

Mechatronics Engineering), co-

founders of They Innovate, have

debuted their pilot invention. The

patent-pending ‘Clipless’ makes

it possible to secure phones and

tablets to a variety of new surfaces,

including clothing.

Rami Alhamad (BASc ’08,

Mechatronics Engineering)

and Suresh Joshi (BASc ’08,

Mechatronics Engineering) have

founded PUSH, a company that uses

a chip device to analyze, manage

and track the progress of a person’s

weight-training workout.

2009

Hamoon Ekhtiari (BMath ’09,

Info Sys Mgt Option; MACC ’09,

Accounting, Professional) has been

awarded an $834,600 Trillium

Future Grant to develop online

links between young entrepreneurs

and resources.

Eric Migicovsky (BASc ’09, Systems

Design) announced that his Pebble

smartwatch project has secured

$15 million in funding from George

Zachary and Charles River Ventures,

one of Silicon Valley’s oldest venture-

capital funds.

2010

David Isern (BA ’10, Political Science;

MA ’11, Global Governance) is one

of a group of student legal advisers

featured in the Guardian video

“Filling the gap: the rise of pro

bono justice.”

Dr. Pamela Bederaux-Cayne  (OD ’10) has joined the Dr. Robert

Downey practice in Chatham.

THANK YOU!

To each and every alumnus from around the world who has taken the time to give back by volunteering your talents: THANK YOU.Year after year, your hard work and dedication advances our institution, and we are very grateful.

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