Climate smart tools for east africa
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Transcript of Climate smart tools for east africa
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Climate SMART Tools for East Africa
Key NOTE Presentation to COP21- EAC Side Event: 4th December 2015
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Contributors: Gideon Galu1 , Christopher Shitote1 , Joseph O Ogutu2, Geoffrey Sabiti3, Christopher Oludhe4 and Mohammed Y Said5
1USGS/FEWS NET, P.O. Box 66613, Nairobi, Kenya 2 Biostatistics Unit , University of Hohenheim, Fruwirthstrasse 23, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany
3IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), P.O. BOX 10304, 00100 - Dagoretti Corner, Nairobi, Kenya
4University of Nairobi, PO Box 30197-00100 Nairobi, Kenya
5The Centre for Sustainable Dryland Ecosystems and Societies (CSDES), University of Nairobi, P.O. 30197-00100 Box, Nairobi, Kenya
Outline
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What’s NEW ? – EAC Climate datasets & tools !
Results – Opportunities and Challenges
What are the next steps - Post COP21 ?
CLIMATE HAZARDS INFRARED PRECIPITATION (CHIRP 2.0)
Characteristics :
IR temperature, FEWS NET Climatology + More Station
Data
Compositing Period:
5-day (pentadal), and monthly
Spatial Resolution:
0.05 degree; ~ 5 kilometer
Latency:
Available 2 days after the end of the composite
Regions:
Global : 50 to -50 latitude
Climate Hazards Infra-Red Precipitation with
Stations (CHIRPs)
Global Raingauge Obs inputs to CHIRP 2.0
24725 stations Oct. 1981
+155 EAC Rainfall stations
AVAILABLE CLIMATE DATASETS & TOOLS
http://chg.ucsb.edu/data/
Citation: "The climate hazards infrared precipitation with stations—a new environmental record for monitoring extremes" in Scientific Data, DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2015.66
AVAILABLE CLIMATE DATASETS & TOOLS
http://chg.ucsb.edu/tools/
Climate data-
visualization and analysis tool for
climate risk mapping”
GeoCLIM
Basic crop
modeling tool for crop monitoring, forecasting and
agricultural risk
mapping.”
GeoWRSI
Statistical forecasting & Interpretation
tools that allows for automated
seasonal
forecasts & Early Warning with
improved spatial scale .”
GeoCOF
“Dynamic tool that allows for integration of
climate changes and socio-
economic trends to characterize
changing human vulnerabilities.”
VIA & A
“Web-based
decision support information systems for
monitoring and analyzing climate variability trends
and their impacts.”
EAC Web-Server
Geospatial tools and datasets developed and supported through strategic partnerships: USAID/PREPARED Program, ICPAC, CIESEN, RCMRD, FEWSNET , NMS, LVBC and EAC Member States
Decision Support Tools
CHIRPS DRIVEN TOOLS
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SHRINKING MAIZE ZONES – STAPLE CROP Maize growing zones are declining due to changing climatic stressors and human settlements …
Conclusion:
Observed drying trends in medium and marginal maize growing areas.
Increased rainfall variability making difficult for farmers to predict and plan.
Warming trends (Tmin and Tmax) affecting maize yield at critical stages of seed development.
Parts of highly populous regions of central Kenya and northeastern Tanzania showing declining trends
Observed increased rainfall variability Shrinking changes in rainfall patterns
Maize zones 1990 - 2009 1960 - 1989
KENYA
UGANDA
TANZANIA
Stable Slightly Highly Extremely
MAIZE PRODUCTION per CAPITA Declining maize production per capita for deficit areas and increasing trends for some export countries, with consistent declining, but, high inter-annual variability in rainfall per capita trends…
Conclusion:
Source: FAOSTAT data
1. Observed high inter-annual maize production per capita trends in past 5 decades.
2. Also, highly variable, but, declining annual rainfall per capita trends.
3. National agriculture policies and export strategies, have encouraged increased maize production in Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda..
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DRYING RAINFALL TRENDS
WARMING TRENDS
KENYA DECLINING COFFEE PRODUCTION
Conclusion:
1. Area under coffee declined by 35% and production by 62%.
2. Global prices increased by over 300% per ton in the last decade.
3. Observed warming and drying trends in hitherto coffee growing areas have affected yield.
4. Worsened by increased population density and high incentive for property development.
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KENYA DECLINING COFFEE PRODUCTION “Every 1◦C rise in Tmin will result in annual yield losses of 137 ± 16.87 kg ha−1(P = 1.80e-10)”
Craparo ACW, et al, Journal of Agricultural & Forestry Meteorology, (2015) .
Kiambu – Windsor hotel and real estate properties, formerly a large coffee estate Tmin Trend
Estimated Kenya Population Density
Urban Heating?
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2015 ETHIOPIA: WORST DROUGHT THAN 1984 ! Recent FEWS NET & Partners Assessment in Afar & Sitti Regions of Ethiopia
Is climate change changing ENSO events coupled with increasing populations, worsening their adverse impacts ?
Vulnerability Impact Assessment & Adaptation
Questions: • Who is vulnerable? • Why are they vulnerable? • What are their adaptive
capacities?
Demand for geospatial Data & Analytical Tools: • Historical climate trends and
future climate scenario’s • Socio-economic trends • Local Capacities
Source: CIESIN
“characterize changing human vulnerabilities….”
EAC - VULNERABILITY INDEX MAPPING APPROACH: Supported through USAID/PREPARED Program
Source: VIA analysis supported by USAID/PREPARED Program partners (CIESEN, RCMRD, FEWSNET and EAC Member states)
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Vulnerability Index Map FEWS NET
Food Insecurity Frequency map
EAC/PREPARED Program – VULNERABILITY INDEX MAPPING
Source: VIA analysis supported by CIESEN, RCMRD, FEWSNET and EAC Member states
COMMUNITY BASED ADAPTATION ACTIVITY (CBA)
Objectives
1. Identify climate change “hot-spots” at community-level, their risks and adaptation strategies.
2. Show case climate change adaptation best practices in the region.
3. Support small scale pilot climate change adaptation project at community level
Practical field training and support
Lake Victoria Basin Commission – VIA Map
Goal: To Establish and enhance climate change risks adaptive capacities of
community groups in selected hot-spots in East Africa.
Ownership (formal agreements)
Data and information sharing (policies)
Data Rescue (DARE initiative)
Building sustainable networks
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HISTOGRAM OF RAINFALL STATION DATA SERIES IN UGANDA
TANZANIA DARE INITIATIVE (12/2015)
EMERGING CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES
NEXT STEPS – POST COP21!
Build sustainable EAC - Climate Change Network
Agriculture & Food Security
Energy Health Water Disaster Risk Reduction
Enhance quality, quantity and applications of climate services in-line with WMO/Global Framework of Climate Services
FEWS NET is a multi-agency food security monitoring and assessment effort
EAC Implementing
Institutions
Support Technical
Teams
EAC-PREPARED
Building on existing local and international capacities
LEVERAGING ON STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS
For More Information:
www.eac.int
www.icpac.net
www.fews.net
www.rcmrd.org
http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews