Climate-­‐smart  food  systems    

Sonja  Vermeulen    John  R.  Porter  and  Eskild  Bennetzen  Department  of  Plant  and  Environmental  Sciences  

University  of  Copenhagen  

Montpellier  March  16-­‐18,  2015  

FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN

INPUTS

FARMING & FISHERIES

ECOSYSTEMS

JOBS

CLIMATE

ENERGY

MARKETS & TRADE

DEVELOPMENT

WATER

EDUCATION

POLITICAL ECONOMY

GOVERNANCE

NUTRITION & HEALTH

CIVIL SECURITY

CULTURE

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

DEMOGRAPHY

FINANCE

SERVICES

GENDER

1 No need for Climate-Smart Food Systems! Agriculture alone can achieve all three CSA goals at global level.

West et al 2014 Science

Closing yield gaps by 50% will feed ~850 million people. Half of these potential gains are concentrated in 5% of the harvested area.

Global  producNvity  &  food  security  

Global  adaptaNon  

Challinor et al 2014 Nature Climate Change

Meta-analysis of model results finds that, globally, adaptations (e.g. different cultivars, agronomy) compensate for crop yield losses due to changes in climatic means.

Global  food  system  emissions  FerNlizer  

Animal  feed  

PesNcides  

AGRICULTURE  

Food  processing  

Packaging  &  transport  

RefrigeraNon  

Retail  

Catering  and  home  food  

Landfill  

Vermeulen et al 2012 Ann Rev Env Res

Global  trends  in  ag  emissions  

Bennetzen, Smith and Porter, forthcoming

2 Really so simple? Or does change in agriculture need change in food systems?

Trade  for  food  security  &  adaptaNon?  

South

Sudan

Libya

Prevalence of undernourishment in the population (percent) in 2012-14

It costs as little

as US 25 cents a day

to feed a hungry child

and change her life

forever.

About 805 million

people, or 1 in 9 of the

world’s population,

go to bed hungry

each night.

We can achieve

Zero Hunger in our

lifetimes. In the world

today, we have the

knowledge, tools and

policies to feed

everyone.

***

Very low

<5%

Moderately low

5-14,9%

Moderately high

15-24,9%

High

25-34,9%

Very high

35%

and over

Missing

or insufficient data

***

State of Palestine

The map shows the prevalence of undernourishment in the population of developing countries as of 2012-14. The indicator measures

the probability that a randomly selected individual in the population is consuming an amount of dietary energy, which is insufficient to

cover her/his requirement for an active and healthy life.

Source: FAO, IFAD and WFP. 2014. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2014. Strengthening the enabling environment for

food security and nutrition. Rome, FAO. Further information is available at www.fao.org/publications/sofi/en/

Undernourishment data source: FAO Statistics Division (ESS) - www.fao.org/economic/ess

© 2014 World Food Programme

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this map does not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WFP concerning the legal

or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers.

* Dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not

yet been agreed upon by the parties.

** A dispute exists between the governments of Argentina and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland concerning sovereignty over the

Falkland Islands (Malvinas).

*** Final boundary between the Republic of South Sudan and the Republic of Sudan has not yet been determined.

Data for the Republic of South Sudan and the Republic of Sudan for the years 2012-14 are not reliable and are not reported.

Brunei

Darussalam

Comoros

Seychelles

Hunger Map 2014

Yield  gap  hotspots  

WFP e.g. Liu et al Global Environmental Change 2014

Trade-­‐offs:  trade  versus  miNgaNon  &  other  environmental  factors  

deforestation nitrogen transfers

Lassaletta et al 2014 Biogeochemistry Schmitz et al 2012 GEC Also see Lambin & Meyfroidt 2011

Achieving  global  emissions  reducNons?  

Bennetzen, Smith and Porter, forthcoming

Crop Livestock

Trade-­‐offs:  intensificaNon  versus  energy,  ferNlizer  &  food  demand  

Bennetzen, Smith and Porter, forthcoming

ReducNons  require  demand  restraint  (over-­‐consumpNon,  diets,  waste)  

Tilman & Clark 2014 Nature Also see Bajželj et al 2014

Nutritional quality of diets around the world

Imamura et al 2015 Lancet

BA

U

MED

I

FISH

VEG

Trade-­‐offs:  sustainability  versus    nutriNon  &  food  prices  

Photo: Vivek Prakash

If  prices  go  up  10%,  consump:on  goes  down:  

High  income  country  

Low  income  country  

Cereals   4  %   6  %  Meat   6  %   8  %  In  all  cases  poor  households  are  worst  affected.  

Green et al 2013 BMJ

3

Transformation is possible. Food systems are changing incredibly fast. Even ahead of “climate-smart” actions, there are multiple entry points for Climate-Smart Food Systems.

Consumers’  food  preferences  change  rapidly  –  and  drive  the  whole  system.  

e.g. Trends in meat consumption in USA

data from USDA

TransformaNon  of  value  chains    accelerates  waste  reducNon.  

Photo: Mint Photo: Reuters

data from Parfitt et al 2010 and Reardon et al 2012

2002 15%

e.g. Post-farmgate, pre-consumer rice waste in China

1997 23%

2012 2%

Public  health  concerns  on  obesity  provide  a  policy  headstart    

for  a  shic  to  sustainable  diets.