Climate Security 101

Francesco Femia & Caitlin Werrell

Co-Directors

The Center for Climate & Security

www.climateandsecurity.org - www.climatesecurity101.org

Is Climate Change A Security Risk?

THREAT MULTIPLIER- or accelerant of

instability, exacerbates existing

risks to security.

DIRECT THREAT - on critical

infrastructure underpinning a

nation’s security.

INDIRECT THREAT - Increases stresses on

critical resources underpinning a

nation’s security, including water, food

& energy. High Probability, High Impact Risk (WEF Global Risk Report)

Why Does the Security Community Care About Climate Change?

RISKS TO CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Sea level rise, storm surge, wildfires compromise military installations and operations, & critical economic hubs.

GEOSTRATEGIC RISKSClimate change increases state fragility and possibility of international tensions in strategically-significant regions

CONFLICT AVOIDANCEClimate stress on water, food & energy increases the likelihood of mass displacement, instability and conflict.

BIG BLUE RABBIT Gen. McLeod, PACOM“Call it climate change, call it the big blue rabbit…— the military has to respond to those kinds of things.”

When Did This All Start? A Climate Security Chronology

•1990s: CIA Environmental Task Force, MEDEA program•2003: DoD Office of Net Assessment, An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario & Its Implications for US National Security•2007: CNA Military Advisory Board Report: National Security & the Threat of Climate Change•2008: National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030

•2009: Establishment of the U.S. Navy Task

Force Climate Change•2010: U.S. DoD, Quadrennial Defense Review •2011: Defense Science Board Report, “Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security” •2012: U.S. DoD Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap •2014: U.S. DoD, Quadrennial Defense Review •2015: G7, A New Climate for Peace: Taking Action on Climate and Fragility Risks report •2015: U.S. National Security Strategy•See the Climate Security Resource Hub for full list

1990

s

2003

2007 20

08

2009 20

10

2011 20

12

2013 20

14

2015

Sampling of Significant Climate Security Reports/Actions

Can Climate Change Cause War & Conflict?

*

Not Likely Primary Cause

of War Between Nations

Increases Likelihood of Intra-state Conflict

& Instability

A Factor in Existing Sub-national Conflicts

Historical Record Not Sufficient For

Predicting Climatic Impact on Future

Conflicts

Foresight Exercises, &

“Games,” are Important

ARCTIC: Ice Melt & Shifting

Geopolitical Dynamics With

Russia

CENTRAL ASIA: Fed By Glacial

Waters, Pakistan Vulnerable

INDO-ASIA PACIFIC: Growing Coastal And

Urban Population, South China Sea

FRAGILE STATES: Greatest Impact On Unstable, Conflict-

Prone Regions

MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA: Political & Demographic Realities, Combined With

Climate Change

Where Is Climate Change The Biggest Threat To Security?

How Can We Address The Security Risks Of Climate Change?

Com

pre

hen

sive

Clim

ate

Ad

ap

tati

on

&

Mit

igati

on

Polic

iesIncorporating Climate Into National, Homeland Security,

Defense, Diplomatic And Development Strategies

Recognizing a U.S. National Security Consensus On Climate Change

Addressing Climate At Collective Security Institutions

Climate-proofing Efforts To Enhance Food, Water And Energy Security

Developing Legal And Institutional Structures To Manage Migration As A Climate Adaptation Strategy

Incorporating Climate Concerns Into Military-Military And Civilian-Military Cooperation On Disaster Risk Reduction

Improving Understanding Of How Climate Change Pressures Interact With State Stability And State Legitimacy

Reducing the Risk Profile Via Adaptation and Mitigation

Pillars of a More Climate Secure World

RESEARCH POLICY COMMUNICATIONS

CROSS-SECTORAL COLLABORATION

Sources

Conflict 2015: Werrell, Femia and Sternberg, “Did We See it Coming? State Fragility, Climate Vulnerability, and the Uprisings in Syria and Egypt,” SAIS Review of International Affairs, Volume 35, Number 1, Winter-Spring 2015, pp. 29-462014: USAID: Climate Change and Conflict, Findings and Lessons Learned from Five Case Studies in Seven Countries2012: Syria: Climate Change, Drought and Social Unrest. Femia, F. and Werrel, C. Center for Climate and Security2012: Special Issue: Climate Change and Conflict. Journal of Peace Research.

Where biggest threat 2013: The Arab Spring and Climate Change. Werrell, C. and Femia, F. Center for Climate and Security, Center for American Porgress, The Stimson Center.2013: Underpinning the MENA Democratic Transition: Delivering Climate, Energy and Resource Security. Mabey, N. et al., E3G2012: Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict in Northwest Africa Rising Dangers and Policy Options Across the Arc of Tension. Werz, M. and Conley, L. Center for American Progress and Heinrich Böll Stiftung2012: Cooperation from Strength: The United States, China and the South China Sea. Cronin, P. et al., Center for a New American Security (CNAS)

How do we address security risks 2015: Climate and Security Working Group recommendations (available upon request)2015: Climate Change as Threat Multiplier: Understanding the Broader Nature of the Risk, Center for Climate and Security2014: “National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change,” CNA Corporation2012: Protecting Americans in the 21st Century: Communicating Priorities for 2012 and Beyond. National Homeland Security Consortium.2011: Degrees of Risk: Defining a Risk Management Framework for Climate Security. Mabey, N. et al. E3G

Why does security community care 2014: Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap, U.S. Department of Defense2014: National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change, CNA Corporation2014: Quadrennial Defense Review, U.S. Department of Defense2014: US Navy Arctic Roadmap: U.S. Department of the Navy2011: Defense Science Board Task Force Report: Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security: Department of Defense

Read More

• The Center for Climate and Security: www.climateandsecurity.org

• Climate Security Resource Hub: www.climateandsecurity.org/resources

• Climate Security 101: www.climatesecurity101.org