Climate Science 102: The nonlinear climate system · 2017-02-16 · Climate Science 102: The...
Transcript of Climate Science 102: The nonlinear climate system · 2017-02-16 · Climate Science 102: The...
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Climate Science 102: The nonlinear climate system
Mara Freilich IAP 2016
Image credit: NASA
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Recap
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Outline
• A few major components of the Earth system • Water • Clouds • Volcanoes • Ocean circulation
• Feedbacks and interactions
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Summary
Image credit: Kay et al. (2014). "The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., in press, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1. Figure 4. Available at: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/cdeser/docs/kay.cesm_le.submitted.sep14.pdf
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Atmos. Temperature
Radiation Absorption
Atm CO2
Feedbacks
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Atmos. Temperature
Radiation Absorption
Evaporation
Atm CO2
Feedbacks
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Atmos. Temperature
Radiation Absorption
Evaporation
Atm CO2
Feedbacks
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Atmos. Temperature
Ocean Temperature Ocean
CO2
Radiation Absorption
Evaporation
Biomass
Atm CO2
Clouds
Ice Melt
Feedbacks
Volcanoes
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Atmos. Temperature
Ocean Temperature Ocean
CO2
Radiation Absorption
Evaporation
Biomass
Atm CO2
Clouds
Ice Melt
Feedbacks
Volcanoes
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→ positive feedback Increases original forcing by factor of 2-3
Water Vapor Feedback
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Image credit: John Knox, http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/slides/climate/Lec2Fig6cclap.html
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Atmos. Temperature
Ocean Temperature Ocean
CO2
Radiation Absorption
Evaporation
Biomass
Atm CO2
Clouds
Ice Melt
Feedbacks
Volcanoes
?
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→negativefeedback →positivefeedback
Changesincloudcoverinclimatemodelsarehighlyvariable,andcloudsthemselvesarenotresolved.
Cloud Feedback
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Clouds are small-scale withhighly variable reflectivity CERES
Reflected SW
March 18, 2011
1000 km
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Highaerosolconcentrations!
NASAMODISsatellite
Aerosols
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Atmos. Temperature
Ocean Temperature Ocean
CO2
Radiation Absorption
Evaporation
Biomass
Atm CO2
Clouds
Ice Melt
Feedbacks
Volcanoes
?
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Source:NASASource:Hansenetal1993
Volcano Data and Models
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Past Eruptions Had Global Effects
Image credit: William Ascroft via thepublicdomainreview.org
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Atmos. Temperature
Ocean Temperature Ocean
CO2
Radiation Absorption
Evaporation
Biomass
Atm CO2
Clouds
Ice Melt
Feedbacks
Volcanoes
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Carbon Reservoirs
Image credit: Sarmiento and Gruber, Ocean Biogeochemical Dynamics
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Carbon Reservoirs
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How Does Carbon Get Into the Ocean?
Image credit: Sarmiento and Gruber, Ocean Biogeochemical Dynamics
http://www.geol.umd.edu/sgc/lectures/climatepart2.html
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CourtesyGFDL
Ocean Circulation
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Heat Transport
12.842 lecture notes
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Abrupt Climate Change
WAIS Divide Project Members, Nature, 2015
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Timescales
Photosynthesis-respiration Seawater buffer
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Timescales
Reaction with calcium carbonate Silicate weathering
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Timescales
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Atmos. Temperature
Ocean Temperature Ocean
CO2
Radiation Absorption
Evaporation
Biomass
Atm CO2
Volcanoes
Clouds
Ice Melt
Feedbacks
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Summary
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Sunday Jan 24, 6pm: Arlington St Church 351 Boylston St Tu BiShvat Seder for Palestine, Climate, and Racial Justice
Monday Jan 25, 5:30pm: E51-315 (here!) Dispatches from Paris: Reflecting on the Climate Talks with COP21 Attendees (RSVP to [email protected])
Monday and Tuesday Jan 25-26, 10am-12pm: E51-085 From Turbines to Tariffs: Technical and Regulatory Issues for Scaling Up Wind Energy
Wednesday Jan 27, 8:30am-5:30pm: MIT 32-123 MIT on Climate = Science + Action
Friday Jan 29, 9am-5pm: MIT 3-415 Hackathon for Climate
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AR5 FAQ 2.1 Fig 2