Climate resilient agriculture in Africa
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Transcript of Climate resilient agriculture in Africa
Climate resilient agriculture in Africa
Rachid Mrabet, PhDINRA Morocco
Key threats to soils in Africa
Two thirds of Africa’s arable lands could be lost by 2025 because of the negative impact of climate change.
Soil: At the Heart of Water and Food Security Nexus
Soil erosion, loss of soil organic carbon, and nutrient imbalance (depletion)
The continent loses 3% of agricultural GDP annually from soil and nutrient loss on
farmlands
Mean size (ha)
% < 2 ha
Sub-Saharan Africa 2.4 69West Asia - North Africa
4.9 65
South Asia 1.4 78East Asia 1.0 79SE Asia 1.8 57Central America 10.7 63South America 111.7 36Europe 32.3 30USA 178.4 4
Vast majority of Africa’s farms are small and family operated
Eastwood et al., 2009
Africa has 33 million family farms of less than 2 hectares, accounting for 80% of farms
Women are the backbone of agriculture in Africa
Only 3% of farms have more than 10 hectares
Changes in Food production in SSA
FAOSTAT (2014)
Food availability in Sub-Saharan Africa has increased by nearly 12 percent over the past
two decades.
Agriculture as a driver of economic transformation in Africa
FAOSTAT (2014)
Cereal production has increased by 125%, yields by 32%, and cultivated land by 70% in 30
years
Yield Gaps Persist
ERS (2013)
Yield reduction in Africa due to past soil erosion may range from 2 to 40%, with a
mean loss of 8.2% for the continent.
• Double its production by 2030 and triple it by 2050.
• Zero hunger by 2025 • food available needs
to be increased by 437 million metric tons or 47 percent of current demand.
• Developing agriculture while protecting the continent’s natural resources depends on sustainable intensification.
• Effective and sustainable intensification efforts must be geared to family farmers.
• Local markets are the main and most dynamic destination for agricultural producers.
African Agriculture at Cross Road
Climate Resilient agriculture in Africa
Coupling and hybridizing
– Ecological Production Intensification: 4 for 100 per year of increased production is necessary
– Sustainable expansion of croplands to increase by 1.5 percent or by 38.9 million hectares.
60% of the planet’s unexploited arable lands are found in Africa, but land must be protected from degradation and
exhaustion
Contribution by sub-region to total food crop production of Africa
North Africa
Southern Africa
Central Africa
West Africa
East Africa
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
18
14
9
38
21
Cropland Increase in No Hunger-High Food Security
Region CHANGE IN LAND AREA in MILLION Ha
East Africa 20West Africa 10Southern Africa 5.1Central Africa 3.7North Africa 0.1Africa 38.9
NEPAD (2016)While 40% of the land in Africa is potentially arable, only nine percent is actually cultivated.
Yield history & trends in Africa
North Africa
East Africa
Southern Africa
Central Africa
West Africa
Crop Yields (tons per hectare) for African regions
Sustainable Soil Management, Improvements to local specific seed varieties, increases in use of fertilizer, and expansions in irrigation could dramatically improve yields.
NEPAD 2016
High potential in irrigated agricultureRainfed agriculture produces 90% of SSA’s staple food needs... ...and irrigated supply
provides only 5%
African (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions « (I)NDC analysis »: Adaptation measures
CSA= Climate Smart AgricultureSLM = Sustainable Land ManagementAF = AgroforesteryAE = Agro-ecology
Plans and policies are in progress for widening appropriation by farmers of resilience
CSA
AF
AE
SLM
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
21
20
15
85
21
20
15
50
Countries Projects
https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/73255
Richards et al., 2016
Agroforestry systems: wide variety of shapes and forms.
Beyond significant cocoa production, Cocoa agroforestry systems in Cameroun provide wood, fruits, medicine and a variety of ecological services.
Banana agroforestry system
Farm household resilience Social wealth Water cycling
Soil cover and fertilityCarbon sequestration
Fighting desert progression
Adaptation and mitigation
REDD+ or AFOLU CONCEPTS
Agroforestry systems: cost-effective solutions to enhance food security
Mbow et al., 2013
Maize Growing under Faidherbia Albida Trees in Tanzania
Agroforestry and Soil Carbon Sequestration Rates
kg C ha−1 yr−1 World Bank 2012
Conservation Agriculture (CA)
is an approach to managing agro-ecosystems for improved and sustained productivity, increased profits and food security while preserving and enhancing the
resource base and the environment
① Minimizing soil disturbance, consistent with sustainable production. ② Maximizing soil surface cover by managing crops, pastures and crop
residues. ③ Stimulating biological activity through crop rotations, cover crops
and integrated nutrient and pest management.
Crops do not ask for plow or disk … they demand a good soil condition for germination and growth.
CA World-Wide (2013)
Continent Cropland under
CA (Million ha)
Per cent of
global CA area
Per cent of
cropland
South America 66.4 (49.5) 42.3 60.0
North America 54.0 (40) 34.4 24.0
Australia & NZ 17.9 11.4 35.9
Asia 10.3 (2.6) 6.6 3.0
Russia & Ukraine 5.2 (0.1) 3.3 3.3
Europe 2.0 (1.5) 1.3 2.8
Africa 1.2 (0.4) 0.8 0.9
Global total 157.0 (106) 100 10.9Kassam et al. 2015
Conservation agriculture holds great promise for Africa
1.22 million ha in Africa
1973 1982 2002 2007 2009 2011 20130
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
Year
Area under Conservation Agri-
culture (ha)
Mrabet, 2016
Compelling evidence exists that CA farmers worldwide and in Africa can't be wrong
Closing the yield gaps with CA
Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, Kenya and TanzaniaCorbeels, M., et al., 2013
Africa will never feed itself without conservation agriculture
Increased productivity (for small, medium and large scale farmers).Savings in labour (up to 60%).
Closing the yield gaps with CA
Central Morocco
Mrabet, 2011
Africa will never feed itself without conservation agriculture
yield CT = 0,0033 Rainfall + 1,4116R2 = 0,1823
yield NT = 0,0028 Rainfall + 2,01R2 = 0,1457
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Rainfall (mm)
Gra
in Y
ield
(Mg/
ha)
No-tillage
Conventional Tillage
Internalizing benefits from environmental preservation
Carbon sequestration with CA
Ben Moussa Machraoui et al. 2010Tunisia
Indo-Gangetic Plains: 0.16 and 0.49 Mg C ha−1 yr−1
Sub-Sahara Africa: 0.28 and 0.96 Mg C ha−1 yr−1
Powlson et al. 2016
Mitigation Potential of CA in MtCO2e
Australia & New Zealand
USA & Canada
Brazil+Argentina+Bolivia+Uruguay
China + Kazakhistan
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
95.9
323.6
260.2
1.8
Avoided GHG emissionArea Under CA 2007
Kenya anticipates an increase in carbon uptake of 1.1 MtCO2e by 2030, equivalent to 0.04 MtCO2e per year, from no-till farming activities under its Climate Change Action Plan
UNEP Emission Gap Report, 2013
Conservation Agriculture with Trees
• Food security via increased productivity and biodiversity• Adaptation to climate change• Carbon sequestration – below & above ground
– Balanced nutrition– Micro climate creation– Arboriculture & Forest products– Biodiversity
Potentials
Trade-Offs Between Profitability and Carbon Sequestration of Sustainable Land Management
Technologies
World Bank 2012
Zai Pit indigenous system
Young sorghum grown in Zai pits in Burkina Faso(©FAO)
West African countries: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger but also in Kenya -
Nigeria
African Innovation: the key to farming system
adaptation
Combining Zai & Fertilizer
In Niger, planting millet in pits with inorganic fertilizer multiplied the yield by four (from 144 kg/ha to 659 kg/ha) – and by ten in a good rainfall year (1,486 kg/ha)...
CHANGE IN 2050 IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE AT RISK OF HUNGER, RELATIVE TO THE BASELINE SCENARIO, AFTER ADOPTION OF IMPROVED
AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGIES
Rosegrant et al. (2014)
Zero-tillage is the best option for wheat
Shifting from degradation to sustainability
Sustainability spirale Degradation spirale
In Africa, conservation agriculture is not just an opportunity, it must become a mandate.
KEY MESSAGES Transforming agriculture
– Tackling risks and drivers to limit (or overcome) amplification.– Sustaining diversity in soils, crops, livelihoods, eco-services, …– Managing adaptively for multifunctionality in agricultural systems.– Developing knowledge and access to robust technologies and
information as well as enhancing skills for all stakeholders.– Developing and marketing indigenous knowledge.– Identifying the policy space for agriculture resilience: defining and
allocating responsibilities.– Sustaining links among governments, research and extension offices,
NGOs and civil society, private sector and farmers communities. – Implementing national and regional level efforts to extend and scale-
up CSA, SLM and AF.
Many thanks for patience