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Climate Resilience Strategy for the Lower Limpopo Basin: A Water Resource Perspective
PEGASYS Final Report i
Climate Resilience Strategy for the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique
Adaptation to Changing Water Resources
Building Climate Resilience in the Limpopo Basin, Mozambique
Prepared for: CDKN; ARA-Sul Final Draft: March 2016 Attention: Mr. D. Sengo
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Context: Climate Vulnerability of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique ............................................. 1
1.2. Purpose and Genesis of this Report ............................................................................................... 3
2. Conceptual Background and Methodology ........................................................................................... 5
2.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 5
2.2. Assessing Climate Vulnerability ..................................................................................................... 5
2.3. Climate Adaptation and Mitigation .................................................................................................. 7
2.4. Climate Resilience Strategies ........................................................................................................ 8
2.5. Prioritising Resilience Strategies: No Regrets/Low Regrets ......................................................... 11
3. Vulnerability of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique ............................................................................. 14
4. Priority Strategies ............................................................................................................................... 28
APPENDIX A: Stakeholder Consultation ................................................................................................ 32
APPENDIX B: Review of Resilience Strategies ...................................................................................... 33
APPENDIX C: Sector-Specific Interventions ........................................................................................... 35
C1. Agriculture ................................................................................................................................ 35
C2. Water Supply and Sanitation .................................................................................................... 40
C3. Human Safety and Health ........................................................................................................ 45
C4. Built Economic Infrastructure .................................................................................................... 49
C5. Ecosystems and Conservation ................................................................................................. 52
C6. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 55
APPENDIX D: Vulnerability Assessment ................................................................................................ 56
5. Vulnerability Assessment .................................................................................................................... 56
5.1. Agriculture .................................................................................................................................... 56
5.2. Human Safety and Health ............................................................................................................ 59
5.3. Water Supply and Sanitation ........................................................................................................ 61
5.4. Economic Infrastructure ............................................................................................................... 64
5.5. Conservation and Ecosystems ..................................................................................................... 67
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1. Introduction
1.1. Context: Climate Vulnerability of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique
The Limpopo River Basin in Mozambique, which lies in the country’s southern region, is characterised by
climatic extremes. Communities in the basin have long had to contend with climatological extremes of both
droughts and floods, of heavy rainfall and water shortages. Occurrences of wildfires have been reported in
the past in some areas. In the coastal region where the river meets the ocean, land subsidence and coastal
erosion are already significant challenges, as is saltwater intrusion that causes salinization of groundwater
and reduced fertility of soils. Storm surges from tropical cyclones also impact the coastal belt of the basin.
Several recent studies have examined the impact that anthropogenic climate change is likely to have on the
river basin when it overlays on a region already beset by climate variability challenges. What emerges
clearly from these investigations (including ones that integrate climate change modelling using Global
Circulation Models or GCMs) is that climate change will make the impacts associated with climate
variability more intense and more frequent in this region.1 In other words, while the evidence available thus
far does not point to completely new and hitherto unknown phenomena taking place in the Limpopo basin
in Mozambique over the period the strategy is designed for (through mid-century or 2050) due to climate
change, climate change can be expected to markedly exacerbate the climate variability that the region
already struggles with. This includes the full range of extreme weather phenomena, such as torrential
rainfall events, prolonged droughts, widespread wildfires, cyclonic activity, storm surges, and impacts like
sea level rise. There is ever-strengthening evidence that both the intensity and frequency of such climatic
extremes and events will increase to levels not experienced in the past, thereby creating a burden on the
region that is distinct from what communities and authorities in the Mozambican Limpopo basin have dealt
with thus far.
This strategy has been framed in recognition of the fact that the severity, intensity, and frequency of
extreme weather events will increase with climate change. At the same time, it is important to take
account of the fact that the types of impacts that the basin will experience more of are not unknown in the
region. In fact, existing climate variability has familiarized the people of the Limpopo basin in Mozambique
with such events, and has also allowed for the formulation and implementation of several strategies that
address such impacts. Given that the level of impact is likely to increase, the application of existing
strategies to address climate variability also needs to be revisited and such strategies strengthened and
supplemented.
Thus, a study of climate change vulnerability in the basin becomes a study of significantly exacerbated
existing vulnerability to climate variability, with markedly heightened exposure (both in frequency and
severity) and thus far greater risks than what the region has known in the past. This is, in fact, what is
reflected in the climate change vulnerability assessment recently conducted for the Limpopo Basin in
Mozambique, which serves as background for the current report, a Climate Change Resilience Strategy for
the basin.
1 It should be noted that ocean acidification impacts off the coast of the Limpopo basin have not been adequately studied, and are thus excluded from consideration for the purposes of this resilience strategy.
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Given that climate change vulnerability in the basin can be viewed as an exaggerated version of
vulnerability to climate variability, and that several contributors of risk are the same for both climate
variability impacts and climate change impacts (for instance, sensitivity of human settlements and
economic activity in the basin to climatic factors), this resilience strategy has a strong focus on
strengthening resilience to climate variability. Thus, it should be regarded as a Climate Resilience Strategy
for the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique. The strategy does acknowledge, however, that as the types of
climate impacts associated with variability increase in frequency and intensity, the region is likely to face a
tipping point when the capacity to recover from one or more such events is heavily compromised because
of the compounding effect of ever more frequent and ever more severe events. Existing levels of resilience
to climate variability will not be adequate to ensure resilience to climate change through the mid-century
period, especially if high-emissions scenarios play out. A heightened level of resilience is certainly called for.
The starting point for such heightened resilience, however, need not be measures that have applicability
primarily in high-emissions scenarios or measures that respond to unprecedented impacts that are an order
of magnitude greater than what the region has dealt with thus far. Resilience is built from the ground up, in
an iterative fashion. And thus the priority for a climate resilience strategy should first be to ensure
strengthened resilience to the climate variability impacts that are already occurring, and then use that
foundation to build more climate change-specific resilience through climate-justified interventions.
These future climate-justified interventions do, of course, require critical and strategic conversations to be
initiated early. It is recommended that on the back of this report and when putting in place processes and
institutional arrangements to implement the strategies recommended herein, the government of
Mozambique also consider setting up a broader and more long-term approach to work with other basin-
countries to start collectively thinking about and planning for potentially significant climate change-driven
hydrological shifts basin-wide. Beginning a strategic dialogue with other basin-partners will help both to
strengthen the available knowledge-base about future climate change-driven impacts that vastly exceed
current variability (with research that allows for greater confidence about the actual direction of change),
and to take a more collaborative approach to building adaptive institutions, both nationally and
transnationally.
It is worth noting that the proximate relationship between climate variability and climate change in the
basin has shaped the resilience strategies suggested in this report. While the authors of the report set out
to identify strategies that would build or strengthen resilience to climate change specifically, and while the
mandate for this exercise was to provide guidance on strengthening adaptive capacity to climate change
(particularly future manifestations of climate change), the nature of expected climate change in the basin
within the mid-century timeframe has meant that these resilience strategies are, in effect, strategies to
address and reduce vulnerability to climate variability and extremes in the present and in the immediate
future. So much so, that even in the absence of climate change, these strategies would help make the
Limpopo Basin in Mozambique more resilient against nature’s vagaries and would strengthen development.
These resilience strategies can therefore be regarded as “low regret” strategies within the African Ministers
Council on Water’s (AMCOW’s) Strategic Framework for Water Security and Climate Resilient Development.
The strategies suggested herein could be regarded as a launch-pad for a programme similar to the Water,
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Climate, and Development (WACDEP) Programme to commence, investigating how the strategies could be
translated into viable projects and to thereafter proceed with concrete project-preparation.
1.2. Purpose and Genesis of this Report
The objective of the present report is to capture appropriate climate resilience strategies that would benefit the
Limpopo River basin in Mozambique, and to prioritize a list of strategies for the consideration of the
Government of Mozambique. The audience for this report is ARA-Sul, Mozambique’s water resources
management authority. Thus both the scope of the strategy and the areas of emphasis reflect the need for the
strategy to be usable by ARA-Sul.
This report is the culmination of a six-month project aimed at developing a Climate Resilience Strategy for the
Limpopo Basin in Mozambique. This project was undertaken through a two part process – first, a climate change
vulnerability assessment of the Mozambican section of the Limpopo Basin, to better understand areas of high
and medium vulnerability, and second, the development of resilience strategies to target high-priority areas of
vulnerability. It is therefore, envisaged that this strategy report will be read in conjunction with the vulnerability
assessment.
The vulnerability assessment focused on assessing the vulnerability of specific economic sectors within the basin
to climate variability and climate change. The sectors were:
Agriculture
Human Safety and Health
Water Supply and Sanitation
Physical Infrastructure (including energy infrastructure); and
Ecosystems and Conservation.
The assessment identified key climate change related risks to the chosen sectors, and attempted to provide a
differentiated picture of risks and vulnerability in the three main sub-regions within the Limpopo Basin in
Mozambique. These regions were:
(i) an “inland” region that largely coincides with the Changane river catchment (an extremely flat, arid,
and sparsely populated region with only subsistence agriculture, no noteworthy commercial
agriculture, and a region susceptible to tropical cyclones);
(ii) a “western” region that is primarily comprised of the main stem of the Limpopo river in Mozambique (a
region with some highland areas in the upper stretches of the river, a great deal of subsistence
agriculture but also a growing presence of commercial agriculture, several important population
centres, and a region that experiences orographic and convectional rainfall); and
(iii) a “coastal” region that, as the name suggests, comprises the estuarine areas where the river empties
into the ocean (a region with flat, low-lying terrain, wetlands, key population centres including a small
port, and a region susceptible to coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion).
It should be noted that the climate vulnerability assessment took a very specific lens when investigating
vulnerability in the basin: a water resources lens. It was a climate vulnerability assessment in the context of
water resources. Thus, the assessment focused on the impacts of climate change on water resources, and
not climate change impacts at large. The reason for this tailored approach was so that it could better serve
the needs of ARA-Sul, the water resources management authority in southern Mozambique, who need to
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target the implications of climate change for the resource they are tasked with managing, i.e. water. This is
not intended to be a national or even regional climate change adaptation strategy for Mozambique, and
the target audience for this strategy is not the competent national climate change authority or department.
It should be noted that this report is intended to serve as a first strategic step for ARA-Sul to consider the
implications of climate change in the Limpopo basin within its jurisdiction. Further steps are, of course,
critical. ARA-Sul should liaise with the national government and the other ARAs in Mozambique to put in
place institutional arrangements that would more explicitly and continually enable the ARAs to engage with
climate change, and to mainstream it into their work. This discussion should also be aligned with the
national government’s efforts to integrate and operationalize the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in
Mozambique, and to catalyze a more holistic approach to water resources management, such as one that
recognizes the food-energy-water nexus and relfects the same in planning and operations of the ARAs. In
terms of the SDGs, water is explicitly connected to goals 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15, and
implicitly relevant to goals 4, 5, 16, and 17. While this report cannot be transformed into a vehicle to
discuss climate change mainstreaming by the national government of Mozambique and a national-level
approach to aligning SDG implementation with water resources in the context of climate change, it does
acknowledge the strategic imperative of a more integrated approach, both for individual ARAs, and the
national government as a whole.
Since this resilience strategy report flows from the climate vulnerability assessment, it will adopt a similar
approach. It will discuss sector-specific strategies, and then pull out priority strategies overall. In keeping
with the thematic focus, it will examine resilience strategies pertinent to water resources. Where
applicable, it will also hone in on strategies that are particularly relevant to one or more geographic sub-
region (although most strategies are, by their nature, beneficial to the basin as a whole).
At this juncture, the report is intended for final consideration and endorsement by key stakeholders in
Mozambique (and already incorporates initial feedback from ARA-Sul and reflects several of the changes
suggested by expert reviewers). After a final round of stakeholder engagement, the strategy will be
finalized by the end of April 2016.
The final climate resilience strategy report is intended to help inform ARA-Sul, other consultants, and interested
stakeholders and decision makers in the water resources sector in Mozambique about the range of potential
options available to enhance resilience of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique to climate variability and climate
change.
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Exposure
This is the measure of the magnitude and
extent (i.e. temporal and spatial) of the
climate related aspects that will impact a
system at a certain location (i.e. it is a
function of geography). It refers to the
extent to which a given system will be
subject to or come into contact with a
climate change impact, such as an increase
in temperatures or a change in rainfall
patterns.
Sensitivity
This is the inherent qualities of a system
that make it susceptible to changes in
climate aspects. It refers to the degree to
which a system is likely to respond when
exposed to a climate induced stress.
Therefore, if a system is modified as a
result of changes in climatic aspects, it is
considered sensitive to climate change.
Adaptive Capacity
This is the ability of a system to adapt to the
impacts, cope with the consequences,
minimise potential damages, or to take
advantage of opportunities offered by
climate change or climate variability. One of
the most important factors shaping the
adaptive capacity of individuals, households
and communities is their access to and
control over natural, human, social,
physical, and financial resources.
Exposure
This is the measure of the magnitude and
extent (i.e. temporal and spatial) of the
climate related aspects that will impact a
system at a certain location (i.e. it is a
function of geography). It refers to the
extent to which a given system will be
subject to or come into contact with a
climate change impact, such as an increase
in temperatures or a change in rainfall
patterns.
Sensitivity
This is an assessment of the inherent
qualities of a system that make it
susceptible to changes in climate aspects. It
refers to the degree to which a system is
likely to respond when exposed to a climate
induced stress. Therefore, if a system is
modified as a result of changes in climatic
aspects, it is considered sensitive to climate
change.
Adaptive Capacity
This is the ability of a system to adapt to the
impacts, cope with the consequences,
minimise potential damages, or to take
advantage of opportunities offered by
climate change or climate variability. One of
the most important factors shaping the
adaptive capacity of individuals, households
and communities is their access to and
control over natural, human, social,
physical, and financial resources.
2. Conceptual Background and Methodology
2.1. Introduction
This chapter provides an overview of the methodology employed for the development of climate resilience
strategies. It initially lays out the conceptual underpinnings of climate change risk, vulnerability, and
adaptive capacity. Thereafter, it briefly highlights dual approaches for climate resilience, namely mitigation
(i.e. reducing emissions that drive climate change, thereby directly reducing the risk being faced) and
adaptation (i.e. coping with the impacts of climate, to respond better and reduce negative consequences).
2.2. Assessing Climate Vulnerability
As climate variability continues to impact the population and other systems along the basin, it is essential
for decision makers to gain a strong comprehension of what makes certain sectors vulnerable to climate
impacts. This is particularly true in the long-term, where the projected impacts are likely to increase due to
climate change.
The concept of ‘climate change vulnerability’ helps us better comprehend the cause/effect relationships
behind climate change and its impact on people, economic sectors and socio-ecological systems.2 The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate change vulnerability as the degree to
which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including
climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate
change and the variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity.3
Climate vulnerability assessments have some key components, each of which have a specific relationship
with the other components. Although these elements are defined differently depending on the source, the
core essence of the components is provided in Figure 1 below:
Figure 1: Components of a Vulnerability Assessment (Text adapted from CDKN and ARA-Sul, 2015)
To effectively assess vulnerability, we must understand the dynamic nature of climatic factors, human
activity or any conditions that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss
2 GIZ, 2014. The Vulnerability Sourcebook: Concept and guidelines for standardised vulnerability assessments 3 Nelitz M et al., 2013. Tools for Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Watersheds. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment
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of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage.4 A vulnerability
assessment provides the process for assessing, measuring, and/or characterizing the exposure, sensitivity,
and adaptive capacity of a natural or human system to disturbance.5
As prescribed by the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007), in a vulnerability assessment, the
combination of exposure and sensitivity amount to the potential climate “risk” to the system. This implies
that the exposure of a system to a specific climatic process, as well as how sensitive that system is to that
exposure, defines the level of risk. Merely because a sector or sub-sector (or any entity or system) is
exposed to climate change, it does not automatically qualify as being at risk of potential impacts. If the
sensitivity to climate is low, then the risk is moderated. Similarly, if something is sensitive to changes in
climate but not exposed to climate change, then risk is low as well.6
In the same vein, merely because a sector or sub-sector (or any entity or system) faces a risk of climate
impacts, this does not automatically make it vulnerable. Vulnerability to climate risk is also a function the
system’s adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity recognizes that human and ecological systems have some
capacity to respond to the climate effects, and that such coping capacity needs to be considered in
determining vulnerability.7
In other words, the ability of a system to adapt to climate risk can determine how vulnerable it is to the risk
(adaptive capacity includes the option of and ability to do something different to avoid risk altogether). The
greater the adaptive capacity (regardless of the magnitude of the risk), the lower the vulnerability of the
system. Similarly, a low adaptive capacity results in a high vulnerability, but only in instances when the risk is
established. This relationship is illustrated in Figure 2 below.
High Adaptive Capacity + High/Low Risk Low Adaptive Capacity + High Risk Low Adaptive Capacity + Low Risk
= Low Vulnerability = High Vulnerability = Low Vulnerability
Figure 2: Relationship between Adaptive Capacity, Risk and Vulnerability.
In order to determine the adaptive capacity of a system, various methodologies are used.8 Current adaptive
capacity is often estimated based on proven historical ability to cope with the climate aspects in question,
while future adaptive capacity is assessed through proxies such as levels of education and income, effective
programs that have been implemented, and policies being put in place to help the sector cope with climate
changes in a positive manner. While the current strategy is tailored towards ARA-Sul’s mandate in water
4 CARE, 2009. Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis (CVCA) Handbook. 5 Nelitz M et al., 2013. Tools for Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Watersheds. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment 6 It should be noted that the conceptual framing of risk and vulnerability evolved from the IPCC’s AR4 to AR5. While AR4 uses the concepts of sensitivity and adaptive capacity to describe the moderating attributes of the system, AR5 uses the concept of exposure (the presence of a system in places that could be adversely affected) and vulnerability (predisposition to be adversely affected). In effect, the AR5 approach uses a stronger Disaster Risk Reduction lens. In AR5, the harm to the system is the impact, or the risk, while in AR4 the harm is more closely tied to the vulnerability. 7 Nelitz M et al., 2013. Tools for Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments for Watersheds. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment 8 One particularly useful source that integrates over 40 variables of climate change vulnerability is the University of Notre Dame GAIN Index: http://index.nd-gain.org
Adaptive
Capacity
Adaptive
Capacity
Risk Adaptive
Capacity Risk
Risk Adaptive
Capacity
Adaptive
Capacity
Risk Adaptive
Capacity Risk
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resources management, it is strongly recommended that the government of Mozambique adopt a cross-
sectoral, integrated approach towards building climate resilience, and mainstream climate change
resilience into economic development planning. More broad-based resilience through increased education,
income, and access to services is critical; without such an effort, these recommended strategies in the
water sector will not bring about the required climate resilience.
To summarise the above discussion, a vulnerability assessment helps one understand exposure to current
and future climate, sensitivity of the environment to climatic factors, as well as the adaptive capacity of the
impacted system being investigated.
A typical approach for the determination climate change vulnerability is depicted in Figure 3.
This approach is closely aligned with the concepts
and guidance provided in the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fourth
Assessment Report (2007) and GIZ’s Vulnerability
Sourcebook: Concept and Guidelines for
Standardised Vulnerability Assessments (2014).9
To enable the implementation of the approach
portrayed in Figure 3, a formula is adopted, as
shown below.
As proposed by GIZ, the formula incorporates the calculation of risk. Adaptive capacity is then subtracted
from the risk, and only then is the vulnerability determined. In summary, this conceptual framework
includes the key components of climate change vulnerability, i.e. exposure and sensitivity, which combine
to produce “risk”, which are then be combined with adaptive capacity to determine a level of vulnerability.
2.3. Climate Adaptation and Mitigation
The methodology provided above describes the approach to determining vulnerability. This is crucial for
determining which sectors require aggressive measures to respond to current and future climate variability
and future climate change. These response measures typically take the form of climate change adaptation,
i.e. measures to increase adaptive capacity and thus cope better with the impacts of climate change (i.e.
the risks).
9 GIZ, 2014. The Vulnerability Sourcebook: Concept and guidelines for standardised vulnerability assessments
Risk
Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
Figure 3: Elements of Watershed Vulnerability Assessment (Adapted from Nelitz M et al., 2013)
Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
Risk
Sensitivity Exposure
Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
Risk
Sensitivity Exposure
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However, climate change mitigation is also a way to respond to climate change impacts, or to reduce the
exposure of any sector. The best cure for a problem is to avoid it or reduce its likelihood in the first place.
Since anthropogenic climate change is driven by emissions of global warming agents (mainly gases from
carbon-based fuel combustion), measures to respond to climate risks could focus on reducing Greenhouse
Gas Emissions (GHGs), thereby minimizing the severity of climate change (i.e. climate mitigation).
To enable readers to understand the difference between the two concepts (i.e. mitigating climate change
or adapting to climate change), it is essential to provide a brief description of what the two concepts entail.
This is provided in Figure 4 below.
Figure 4: Climate Mitigation and Climate Adaptation (Source: Adapted from IPCC Glossary, 4th Assessment Report)
A key distinction between the two concepts is that mitigation focuses on reducing or preventing GHG
emissions, while adaptation focuses on adapting to the impacts of climate variability and climate change.
In the case of the current project, we are focused climate change adaptation. Resilience strategies
developed and described in this report are aimed at building or strengthening adaptive capacity. Mitigation
is not within the scope of the current project (and is not currently a strategic priority for Mozambique,
given its marginal contribution to global GHG emissions). However, it is important to note that mitigation
can go hand-in-hand with climate change adaptation. Many adaptation actions can in fact contribute to
climate change mitigation -- for instance, hydroelectric power that contributes low carbon energy while
also providing energy security and potentially in sync with a water storage facility.10 Similarly, reforestation
and catchment management, which improves flows, and also contributes to carbon sequestration. If the
strategies recommended herein proceed to a project-preparation stage, it would be optimal to investigate
the integration of mitigation into the projects as well.
2.4. Climate Resilience Strategies
The vulnerability assessment conducted an investigation into five sectors in the Limpopo Basin (as
illustrated below). The approach identified in Section 2.2 was applied during the assessment, and the
10 It shouldbe noted, however, that a hydroelectric project could also negatively affect climate change vulnerability. For instance, releases of water for power generation can increase vulnerability during droughts. Moreover, countries that have a very high reliance on hydropower may find that climate change elevates energy insecurity due to less reliable or consistent future river flows.
Climate Mitigation
Mitigation refers to measures that reduce or prevent
emissions. These include technological changes and
substitutions that reduce resource inputs and emissions per
unit of output. Governance measures, such as introducing and
implementing policies to reduce GHG emissions and enhance
sinks can also be considered as mitigation measures.
Therefore, mitigation can mean using new technologies (such
as renewable energy), improving energy efficiency, changing
consumer behaviour and management practices.
Climate Adaptation
Adaption refers to adapting to life in a changing climate. This
includes initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of
natural and human systems against actual or expected climate
change effects. Various types of adaptation exist, e.g.
anticipatory and reactive, private and public, and autonomous
and planned. Examples are raising river or coastal dikes (to
prevent flooding or sea level encroachment), the substitution
of more temperature shock resistant plants for sensitive ones
(to promote agriculture resilience), etc.
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outcome was an understanding of which sectors have comparatively high vulnerability in each geographic
sub-region (relative to each other; while all sectors are vulnerable, some are more so than others).
Vulnerability was assessed against various current and future climate related factors (as shown below),
through a water resources lens. As the manner in which climate change manifests includes both first order
and second order impacts, the vulnerability assessment incorporated first order exposure (such as changes
in rainfall or temperature) and second order exposure (such as changes in water resource availability or
changes in the frequency of floods or droughts).
For each of the factors, the vulnerability of the sector (in each region) was assessed. This also included and
assessment of how the vulnerability of the sector would be impacted by future changes in these climate
factors. Note that sea level rise was approached as a primary climatic factor or indicator.
A key finding of the vulnerability assessment was that all the sectors are currently impacted by climate
variability, and all are vulnerable to exacerbated future climate variability (driven by climate change). While
the degree of vulnerability differs slightly from sector to sector, it was determined that all sectors would
benefit from climate resilience strategies.
2.4.1. Key Concepts in Climate Change Adaptation
This resilience strategy proposes several measures for building resilience in the Limpopo Basin. These
strategies are aimed at either reducing exposure to the primary driver of climate risks (i.e. the climatic
factors), or on reducing the effects of these climatic factors on the sectors.
Put differently, measures could be aimed at reducing vulnerability of the sectors by either decreasing the
exposure or decreasing the sensitivity of the sectors. Reducing either of these is a means of enhancing
adaptation, as is increasing the actual ability to cope with change (i.e. strengthening adaptive capacity,
regardless of change in exposure or sensitivity).
The two types of measures are discussed in detail below:
Measures to reduce the exposure to climate aspects include:
o Institutional interventions such as policy instruments or strategic approaches that improve
the management and flexibility of decision making around water resources;
o Physical approaches such as infrastructure or technical solutions associated with water
resources infrastructure development to store or manage water resources;
Water Supply and
Sanitation
Domestic drinking water
supply
Industrial / commercial
water supply
Water infrastructure
Human Safety
Health
Disasters
Human settlements
Linear Infrastructure
ICT (information &
communications
technology)
Roads & transportation
Electricity supply & access
Conservation and
Ecosystems
Biodiversity and natural
capital (ecosystems)
Ecosystem function
Tourism and wildlife
conservation
Agriculture
Subsistence agriculture
and food security
Commercial agriculture
(incl. irrigation)
Water
Availability
Climatic
Factors
Flood
Events
Drought
Periods
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o Natural approaches such as ecosystem approaches that provide assimilation or attenuation
of water flows and quality; and
o Monitoring systems focused on measuring, monitoring and evaluation, such as early
warning systems and information collection/sharing platforms
Note that while it is extremely challenging to alter exposure to first-order impacts, it is possible to alter
exposure to second-order climate impacts. In other words, through appropriate strategies we can reduce
the impacts of climate through water resources, by adopting water resources management techniques.
Measures to reduce the sensitivity of the sectors include:
o Socio-economic approaches focused on improving social resilience, such as improving
education levels, promoting income security, providing alternative livelihoods or different
crops in the basin or elsewhere in Mozambique through economic growth and
employment, and/or improving knowledge of climate risks;
Physical approaches such as irrigation infrastructure, household water storage solutions,
land management, and green infrastructure;11 and
o Institutional (governance) approaches such as land-use planning approaches, water
allocations and variable assurance of supply, farmer-based organisations, extension
services, and improving institutional capacity. This also includes financial mechanisms such
as insurance, low-interest loans or access to credit.
It should be noted that the above framework is helpful to conceptually define and categorise various
adaptation approaches. It provides guidance on the range of adaptation measures and strategies that have
been investigated for the development of this resilience strategy report, but is not indicative of the
strategies finally chosen for discussion and prioritisation herein.
It is important to remember that the above listed measures are often only effective when applied
simultaneously. For example, implementing a physical approach such as building a dam requires effective
(but site and project-appropriate) monitoring systems to monitor rainfall patterns and water flow, and to
optimise operations accordingly. Similarly, implementing monitoring systems such as early warning systems
requires effective institutions to ensure the effective operation and maintenance of the systems and timely
dissemination of the warnings to the relevant parties.
2.4.2. Implementation Scale: National Level v. Provincial Level v. Basin Level
Resilience strategies can be implemented at various geographic scales. Depending on the distribution of
powers between central, provincial, and local governments, the responsibility for implementation of any
given strategy could fall within the purview of each of these levels of government. Many a time, the same
strategy could be implemented at a national, provincial, or local level.
While the geographic focus of this report is the Limpopo river basin in Mozambique, adaptation strategies
that would strengthen resilience in the basin are not exclusively strategies that apply or are implemented at
11 While the impact of climate change on infrastructure contributes to risk (through the exposure of such infrastructure and consequent damage), building appropriate infrastructure in a climate resilient manner could contribute to adaptive capacity, thereby lowering climate risk.
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the basin level. Those within the basin cannot necessarily build resilience for themselves without support of
and implementation by national level agencies.
The very concept of broad-based resilience – which is a priority for the Limpopo basin but also for other
parts of Mozambique – is such that development-oriented resilience strategies could easily be applicable to
other areas as well. Merely because a strategy is also applicable in other regions of Mozambique or even
other countries and regions does not mean it is not an appropriate strategy for the Mozambican Limpopo
basin. In fact, strategies that are applicable elsewhere and have a broader relevance are those that merit
special attention, because these strategies can bring dividends beyond just one narrow spatial unit, and
likely have proven effective in other similar regions.
This strategy report examines each of the recommended strategies to identify whether it would be a
national level strategy (for instance, only a national government is empowered to decide and proceed with
the building of a dam, whereas a province in Mozambique cannot independently decide to build a dam and
implement the project without national sanction) or a strategy that could be implemented by the two
provinces that are home to the Limpopo basin in Mozambique – Gaza and Inhambane.
2.4.3. Literature Review of Relevant Strategies
The strategies in this report have been developed with an understanding of governance processes and
institutional frameworks in Mozambique in relation to climate adaptation (such as existing plans and
policies within various departments).
To develop this understanding, the project undertook a literature review of existing (traditional and
modern) adaptation priorities as identified by the Government of Mozambique and all relevant institutions
in Mozambique. In addition, adaptation measures identified by the Southern Africa Development
Community (SADC) and the Limpopo Basin Commission (LIMCOM) have also been reviewed. An exploration
of best-practice in international river basins (such as the Nile River, Volta Basin and Murray Darling) as well
as water resource best-practice guides (such as the approach proposed by the UNDP or InWent) has also
been conducted.
This literature review enabled the identification of innovative and cost-effective measures that can be
implemented to reduce the vulnerability of sectors in the basin (see sources listed in Appendix B).
2.5. Prioritising Resilience Strategies: No Regrets/Low Regrets
Improved water management can benefit many sectors (e.g. health, energy, agriculture and environment)
while also contributing to development goals, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction,
particularly floods and drought related disasters.12 In light of this, strategies, plans and investments that
promote sound water resources management are a cost-effective way of delivering both immediate
development benefits, contributing to SDGs, and of building resilience to longer term climate change.13
12 GWP, 2012a. Water Security and Climate Resilient Development. Strategic Framework. African Ministers Council on Water (AMCOW). 13 GWP, 2012a. Water Security and Climate Resilient Development. Strategic Framework. African Ministers Council on Water (AMCOW).
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In choosing priority strategies for the Government of Mozambique to consider for building resilience in the
Limpopo basin, it was deemed important to select strategies that are either low-cost and easy to
implement, or strategies that are either win-win or no/low regret investment options (i.e. where the
investment in the project will result in benefits regardless of the extent of climate change, and would not
cause detriment).
While the uncertainty over the scale and frequency of climate change impacts should influence how
adaptation measures are prioritized and applied, uncertainty over the impact of climate change should not
stand in the way of taking immediate steps to improve climate resilience. An approach that aims to
produce decisions that governments will not regret, no matter how the future turns out is sometimes
referred to as Robust Decision Making (RDM). These decisions give priority to no regret or low regret
investments since these would be the right choice, whether or not the predicted climate change takes place
or the extent to which it takes place. Some of the benefits of the approach include:
It can be applied to plans, policies and projects already in place, or being developed, to meet
national economic growth and anti-poverty aims.
It accepts the future uncertainty as a fact, but instead of attempting predictions and the estimation
of probabilities, uses a different logic. It asks what future conditions would render the investment
vulnerable, and seeks to bolster the investment against those eventualities.
It reaches decisions that perform well over a range of plausible futures, even though they may not
be the best for any specific future state.
It can be applied to both ‘hard’ investments in infrastructure and equipment, as well as ‘soft’
investments entailing such as changes in policies and procedures, research and capacity building.14
Options that are known as ‘no regrets’ and ‘low regrets’ provide benefits under a broad range of climate
change scenarios, although they may not be optimal for every future scenario, and are recommended when
uncertainties over future climate change directions and impacts are high.15 These ‘low regrets’ adaptation
options typically include improvements to coping strategies or reductions in exposure to known threats.16
No/low regret investments can consist of: (i) modifications to existing water assets, systems and
infrastructure, (ii) pursuing current development investments, again, modified as necessary if this can be
done cost-effectively, and (iii) building capacity to adapt through investments in information, research,
education, and piloting (all of which will create greater awareness and resilience in future). 17 Low regrets
can also include better forecasting and warning systems, use of climate information to better manage
agriculture in drought-prone regions, flood-proofing of homesteads, or interventions to ensure up-to-date
climatic design information for engineering projects. 18
No/low regrets investments should also consider alternative, and more sustainable means, of achieving a
development outcome, such as the use of land management incentives and pollution control rather than
14 GWP, 2012b. Managing Risks and Making Robust Decisions for Development. Policy Brief No. 4. Investing in water security for climate resilient growth and development 15 IPCC, 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. 16 IPCC, 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. 17 GWP, 2012a. Water Security and Climate Resilient Development. Strategic Framework. African Ministers Council on Water (AMCOW). 18 IPCC, 2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation.
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costly and inadaptable infrastructure.19 No/low regrets investments have the key characteristic of
delivering benefits under almost any future climate scenario and building confidence in the long term
sustainability of development activities. Fast-tracking these investments allows action to be put in place
now, despite the large uncertainties in the future climate. 20
Thus, investments in resilience-building should ideally not be “climate-justified” or be contingent on the
emergence of very specific frequency or intensity of climate change impacts. Optimal resilience strategies
should – even in the absence of any potential climate change – at a minimum provide greater resilience
against current climate variability. Moreover, they should strengthen development and growth in the
present day, and meet current needs, even as they strengthen capacity to address future risks.
19 GWP, 2012b. Managing Risks and Making Robust Decisions for Development. Policy Brief No. 4. Investing in water security for climate resilient growth and development 20 GWP, 2012a. Water Security and Climate Resilient Development. Strategic Framework. African Ministers Council on Water (AMCOW).
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3. Vulnerability of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique
In hydrological assessments it is important to consider the entire basin due to the interconnectivity of the
hydrological systems. In the context of this study, this means that upstream Limpopo Basin hydro-climatic
processes, and anthropogenic factors, have impacts on downstream portion of the basin. Therefore, for this
assessment the entire Limpopo Basin will be considered. The core of this report will, however, focus on the
Limpopo River Basin in Mozambique. This portion of the Limpopo Basin is sometimes referred to as the
Lower Limpopo Basin, since it is the downstream riparian region. However, in some technical literature the
Lower Limpopo Basin is also a sub-basin of the Limpopo Basin that extends across multiple countries. This
often creates a confusion when reading literature on the Limpopo Basin. To avoid this confusion, this
document will refer to the region in question as the “Mozambican Limpopo Basin,” or the “Limpopo Basin in
Mozambique.”
The Limpopo River is a transboundary river in Southern Africa. Originating in South Africa, it passes through
Botswana and Zimbabwe, before it enters Mozambique. The Mozambican section of the river basin
comprises the main stem of the Limpopo River, the Changane River catchment, the Olifants River
catchment, as well as the estuary. The river enters the Indian Ocean south of Xai-Xai. Figure 5 below
illustrates the location of the Limpopo Basin.
Figure 5: Location of the Limpopo River Basin. Figure A Illustrates the Sub-Basins of the Limpopo River Basin
(Source: LIMCOM, 2013) and Figure B Illustrates the Location of the Limpopo River Basin in Africa.
In Mozambique, the Limpopo River Basin straddles the Gaza and Inhambane provinces, and is home to
several population centres. These include the cities of Chokwe, Xai Xai, Bilene, Guija, and Chibuto, amongst
others. Communities residing in the Basin depend on the river, and the natural systems it supports, for
their livelihood and well-being. However, they are also susceptible to variances of the river’s flow and its
propensity for major flooding. In recent years, floods on the Limpopo River Basin have been one of the
most destructive disasters experienced in Mozambique, taking an immense human and economic toll. At
the same time, the Basin is also prone to intermittent drought, leading to failed harvests on parched
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farmland and loss of livestock, as well as acute water stress for local communities. Productivity of land in
the region is extremely low, largely due to the lack of adequate water resources during the dry season.
Industrial activity is negligible, straitjacketed by unpredictable and uneven access to water.
Those living in the Basin have coped thus far with the river’s tendency to flood after heavy rainfall and dry
out during times of drought, although these extremes are likely to have played an important role in
trapping the population in poverty and limiting growth. The current levels of economic activity that are
impacted by the variability may not be able to adequately support a rapidly growing population. As
Mozambique’s economy is growing, the government intends to harness this economic momentum to pull
communities in the Limpopo Basin out of poverty. Such a development imperative cannot be achieved
without more reliable access to water resources, and a greater level of protection from significant
variability in the Basin’s water resources.
As the government of Mozambique sets about its task to reduce poverty and spur economic development
in the Limpopo Basin, it must contend with the growing spectre of climate change. While inter-seasonal and
inter-annual climate variability already poses a challenge to economic stability and growth in the Basin,
climate change is expected to significantly exacerbate this challenge. The impacts of climate change could
negate Mozambique’s hard-won development gains, and could propel communities in the Basin further
into a spiral of deprivation and impoverishment.
Hydro-climatic Zones in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique
In the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique, three broad hydro-climatic processes are prevalent: cyclonic rainfall
in an arid region (with pluvial flooding); convectional rainfall and orographic rainfall in a semi-arid region
(and fluvial flooding influenced by upstream processes);
and a semi-tropical coastal drainage region with both
convectional and cyclonic rainfall, plus storm surge-
related flooding. On the basis of these somewhat distinct
elements, the basin can be sub-divided into three
corresponding broad regions. These three regions can be
referred to as the inland, coastal and western region, and
are described below (and are illustrated by the white
boundary shown in Figure 6).
The inland region is comprised of the Changane
Sub-Catchment. It is an arid region that is also
exposed to cyclonic activity during the spring and
summer seasons, resulting in pluvial flooding (i.e.
flooding caused by heavy rainfall events).
The western region is the downstream portion of the main stem of the Limpopo River. It is
comprised of the Mozambican parts of the Mwenezi, Luvuvhu, Shingwedzi and Lower Olifants Sub-
Catchments. In addition, it also includes the Lower Limpopo and Lower-Middle Limpopo Sub-
Catchments, excluding the portion where the Changane Sub-Catchment joins the main stem of the
Figure 6: The Three Regions of the
Lower Limpopo Basin
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Limpopo River. It is a semi-arid region that is also exposed to high-rainfall events during spring and
summer seasons, resulting in fluvial flooding (i.e. flooding caused by river(s) overflowing).
The coastal region is the portion of the basin where the Changane River joins the Limpopo River,
and also incorporates the portion where the Limpopo River drains into the Indian Ocean. It is a
tropical region that is also exposed to coastal storm surges and saltwater intrusion.
As described above, each of the three identified regions have different hydro-climatic processes which
influence the water resources distinctly. Impacts of climate change on water resources will therefore
manifest a little differently in each of regions. Consequently, major water users (or sectors) in each of the
regions will likely be impacted differently by the changes in water resources, at least with respect to certain
types of climatic events. This allows for the possibility that the climate change vulnerability of each sector
could differ from region to region, depending on where it is located. This assessment will therefore
examine the climate change vulnerability of each of the major sectors in each of the three regions – inland,
western, and coastal.
Climate change exposure in each of the three sub-regions applies to all the sectors (since climate change
and its manifestation in water resources won’t differ sector-by-sector in any one given region). However,
for each sector, this report provides a differentiated picture of sensitivity and adaptive capacity - and thus
vulnerability - in each of the three sub-regions. Such distinctions, however minor, may allow a greater
degree of direction regarding the appropriate adaptation measures and resilience strategies applicable in
different parts of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique.
3.1.1. Climate of the Basin
In Mozambique, there is a very clear annual variation in the amount of rainfall, with a rainy and hot season,
lasting from October to April, and a dry and cooler season, from May to September. The ITCZ starts to move
south over the country during October, and during the peak of the rainy season it is in its most southerly
position (approximately 19°S) during January to February. During January to March the ITCZ becomes more
active over the country.21 The rainy season is thus mainly a function of the southern migration of the ITCZ
and corresponds to the warmest months of the year.22
The Limpopo River Basin is located in southern Mozambique. This southern region of Mozambique is mainly
semi-arid, and has a relatively narrow coastal plain and a sandy coastline.23 In this region, inter-annual
variability in wet-season rainfall is very high. This variability causes severe stress on many sectors across the
country. Floods and droughts are common occurrences in the central and southern regions, often occurring
during the same year.24
Observed climate change trends in Mozambique suggest temperatures have already begun increasing, and
projections indicate a clear and sustained rise in future temperatures. At the country level, climate models 21 Tadross M, 2009. Climate change modelling and analyses for Mozambique. Final report detailing the support provided to the G adaptation to climate change project 22 World Bank and GFDRR, 2011. Vulnerability, Risk Reduction, and Adaptation to Climate Change. Climate Risk and Adaptation Country Profile: Mozambique. 23 INGC. 2009. Synthesis report. Climate Change Report: Study on the impact of climate change on disaster risk in Mozambique. 24 GFDRR, 2011. Climate Risk and Adaptation Country Profile: Mozambique. Vulnerability, Risk Reduction, and Adaptation to Climate Change.
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provide slightly less clarity regarding changes in precipitation. While there is no statistically significant
indication that overall rainfall volumes will increase or decrease substantially, there is an expectation that
more rainfall will fall in heavy rainfall events, and that some parts of the country could receive greater
volumes of annual rainfall. However, any increase in rainfall is likely to be offset by higher rates of
evaporation, due to warmer temperatures. In fact, climate models suggest that droughts could be more
prolonged or intense in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique, even if not more frequent. Sea levels are
expected to rise, leading to more coastal inundation and saltwater intrusion in low-lying areas. Cyclonic
rainfall is also expected to increase, with greater potential for storm surges.
Current and future climate trends can be slightly differentiated at the sub regional level:
Figure 7: The Three Regions of the Lower Limpopo Basin
3.1.2. Water Resources of the Basin
The river is perennial, but experiences inter-seasonal variability. During the summer rainfall periods, the
river experiences high flow, often resulting in floods, and low flows during the dry winter season, mostly
due to rainfall scarcity / droughts and upstream abstractions.
A large part of the Limpopo Basin is threatened by water scarcity.25 This is due to the catchment
experiencing inconsistent water availability and the over allocation of water resources, resulting in
challenges in meeting water needs throughout the year. Of particular influence in dry periods are the
alluvial aquifers associated with the Limpopo River, which are highly susceptible to over exploitation. In
Zimbabwe, for example, the water resources supplied by the river are already recognised as unreliable due
to climate variability, so groundwater is often relied upon.26
For the Limpopo Basin, river flows are projected to increase with climate change. However, due to sharply
increasing water use and extraction, actual availability of surface water is projected to decline significantly.
25 LIMCOM, 2013. Limpopo River Basin Monograph Study. Limpopo Watercourse Commission. 26 INGC, 2012. Understanding the socio-economic impacts of climate change and the development of a climate proofing strategy in the Limpopo river basin, Mozambique.
The inland region currently experiences the highest average temperature in the basin, and very low MAP (particularly in the northern regions). However, certain areas in the basin receive high amounts of rain during the summer season, which is primarily caused by cyclonic activity. In the future, the region will likely experience an increase in temperature as well as an increase in cyclonic activity (with intense rainfall events). This will potentially result in an increase in the risk to flooding during the summer season. Inter-seasonal variability is likely to increase, resulting in greater extremities of dry and wet seasons. The western region currently experiences the lowest average temperature and low MAP. As a result of climate change this region is expected to experience an increase in temperature. In addition, an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall events is projected; high rainfall in upstream basins will also impact Mozambique. This will likely result in an increase in the risk of flooding. Inter-seasonal variability is expected to increase, resulting in greater variances in dry and wet seasons.
The coastal region currently experiences high average temperature and the highest average MAP. Climate change projections for the region include an increase in temperature, although slightly smaller than the other regions, as well as an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall events and cyclonic activity. This is expected to result in an increase in the risk of coastal flooding. In addition, changes in oceanic processes are likely to lead to an increase in storm surges, sea level rise and saltwater intrusion.
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As some regions in the transboundary basin are currently under-developed, water shortages present a
challenge for the long-term development agenda. In the face of a changing climate future, upstream
development will pose concerns for the downstream water resource availability of sufficient quality and
quantity to meet development needs. In the Mozambique portion of the basin, inter-seasonal variability is
projected, resulting in periods of floods and droughts.
Ground water resources are already being depleted. Population pressure is likely to create additional water
stress. However, climate change could alleviate some of the stress if greater volumes of rainfall result in
greater recharge, provided that that rainfall intensity is not too high. Unfortunately, there is not enough
clarity on future groundwater trends to conclude whether a dryer future could lead to acute groundwater
shortages or whether a wetter future could lead to greater recharge.
The rivers of Southern Mozambique are characterized by long, wide floodplains which are highly
susceptible to saltwater intrusion.27 Saltwater intrusion is presently a problem in the Limpopo River as
there are large developments in irrigation, and high levels of water extraction. Vast areas of southern
Mozambique suffer from degradation of land caused by salt water intrusion.28 Salt water intrusion is likely
to affect the lower Limpopo Basin as far as 29-30 km inland by 2030, over an area as large as 83 km2.29
In the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique, there are mixed results regarding groundwater resources. Near the
main stem of the Limpopo River, shallow aquifers are influenced by the river and are valuable sources of
water. Further away from the main channel, in more remote areas of the Gaza Province, boreholes go
down fairly deep (down to +90m) and groundwater is often saline, a result of the marine origin of the
sedimentary rocks. This makes further exploitation of this water unfeasible. 30
Water quality concerns already plague both surface and ground water resources in the basin, and this is
likely to be accentuated by climate change, particularly if overall water availability declines. On the whole,
with a changing climate, water availability is predicted to decrease and become more erratic in the
Limpopo River Basin in Mozambique. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more common,
aggravating the condition of already degraded land through increased runoff and flooding. These climate-
induced hazards could exacerbate socio-economic problems and reduce the overall livelihood security of
those living within the basin.31
Minor differentiation is feasible between the sub-regions studied in this assessment:
27 INGC, 2009. Synthesis Report (First Draft): Study on the impact of climate change on disaster risk in Mozambique. 28 INGC. 2009. Synthesis report. Climate Change Report: Study on the impact of climate change on disaster risk in Mozambique. 29 INGC. 2009. Synthesis report. Climate Change Report: Study on the impact of climate change on disaster risk in Mozambique. 30 Petrie, B., et al., R., 2014. Risk, Vulnerability and Resilience in the Limpopo River Basin System: Climate change, water and biodiversity – A synthesis. For the USAI D Southern Africa “Resilience in the Limpopo River Basin” (RESILIM) Program. OneWorld Sustainable Investments, Cape Town. 31 INGC, 2012. Understanding the socio-economic impacts of climate change and the development of a climate proofing strategy in the Limpopo river basin, Mozambique.
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Figure 8: The Three Regions of the Lower Limpopo Basin
As some regions in the transboundary basin are currently under-developed, water shortages present a
challenge for long-term development agendas. In the face of a changing climate future, upstream
development will pose concerns for the downstream water resource availability of sufficient quality and
quantity to meet development needs. Therefore, water resource planning has to consider the long-term
projections in water use as well as water resource development in upstream countries.
For the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique, the impact of these upstream development futures will be more
significant in a drier future than in a wetter future, with Mozambique’s development potentially
constrained by the lack of available water for agriculture and industry.
3.1.3. Socio-Economic Vulnerability in Mozambique’s Limpopo Basin
The population of the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is estimated at 1.1 million people (as illustrated in
Table 8). This accounts for more than 8% of the total population of Mozambique. 15% of the population in
the Mozambique portion of the basin resides in urban areas, while 85% live in sparsely located rural areas.
The basin is characterised by urban centres at Chokwe and Xai-Xai and an extensive rural population
The population relies on rain-fed agriculture, as well as fishing in the estuary. Because of high poverty rates
and lack of infrastructure, the population is unable to cope with any adverse effects of climate change.32
According to Manjate (2009), the impact of climate variability on the population is already substantial, such
as straining food security due to reduction or failure of agricultural production; reducing peoples’ livelihood
assets, including housing, education centres, health provision, access to water and sanitation supply and
road infrastructure; harm to the work force through climate related diseases; and reducing income
opportunities. This suggests that even though local communities are familiar with the impacts of climate
variability, the adaptive capacity of populations across the Mozambican Limpopo Basin to variability (and
by extension to more dramatic climate change) is low.
32 LIMCOM, 2013. Limpopo River Basin Monograph Study. Limpopo Watercourse Commission.
The inland region is an arid region, with highly seasonal water flow, that relies mainly on groundwater. However, the quality of groundwater (due to geological processes) is a concern. The region experiences frequent droughts, but also experiences floods during the wet season due to cyclonic activity. Climate change is expected to result in an increase in extreme events (i.e. floods and droughts).
The western region currently experiences seasonal variations in water availability, frequently resulting in droughts during the dry season and flood during the wet season. In addition, although the region has moderate to high groundwater productivity, the extraction for irrigation purposes creates quality concerns. Climate change will likely result in an increase in extreme events (i.e. floods and droughts). In addition, upstream basin activities will influence the availability and quality of water resources.
The coastal region suffers from salt water intrusion, which impacts the usability of surface water. In terms of groundwater, the region has moderate to high yield, and the high productivity can be used for withdrawals of regional importance. In addition, the region has a high water demand as it is highly populated. The region currently experiences flooding due to upstream flooding of the Changane River and the main stem of the Limpopo River. All these factors are likely to increase as a result of climate change, including an increase in salt water intrusion and coastal storm surges, linked to sea level rise.
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Land ownership is comprised of small-holdings, and most households do not have notable savings, access
to capital, or productive inputs. Homes are built with low quality materials. Poverty is compounded by
pervasive malnutrition and food insecurity. Access to adequate healthcare, potable water, and sanitation
remains low. HIV-AIDS has contributed to low life expectancy and overall low levels of human capacity.
Educational levels have improved in recent years and a fair proportion of the population has access to and
has completed basic education.
The impact of climate variability on the population is already substantial, such as straining food security due
to reduction or failure of agricultural production; reducing peoples’ livelihood assets, including housing,
education centres, health provision, access to water and sanitation supply and road infrastructure; harm to
the work force through climate related diseases; and reducing income opportunities. Climate change is
expected to exacerbate such impacts on society.
3.1.4. Vulnerability Assessment for Major Economic Sectors
This report looks at the following major economic sectors in the Limpopo Basin. As major users of water,
these sectors are therefore most likely to be impacted by changes in water resources resulting from climate
change:
3.1.5. Agriculture
The agriculture sector in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is the primary means of livelihood for the
majority of the population. It is characterised predominantly by subsistence agriculture (mainly maize and
cassava cultivation), raising livestock (chiefly cattle, goats, and poultry), and fishing.
Published literature on climate change risk and vulnerability within Southern Mozambique and the
Mozambican Limpopo Basin indicates that climate variability already has impacted on the agriculture sector
in this Basin, and that climate change is likely to exacerbate such impacts. Rainfall is likely to increase in
many areas in the wet season, contributing to a greater likelihood of flood events. The risk of drought
remains similar to present levels, but with greater temperatures and evaporation rates, droughts may
become more pronounced or intense. In addition, Coastal erosion and submergence are likely to have
negative impacts on the coastal region’s soil fertility, through salinization from saltwater intrusion.
Variable and potentially lower water availability could be a key contributor to falling crop yields (although
yields may, in some cases, show marginal increases – e.g. sorghum and soybeans). In terms of socio-
economic vulnerability, prior studies on the basin suggest that in terms of socio-economic capacity,
Water Supply and
Sanitation
Domestic drinking water
supply
Industrial / commercial
water supply
Water infrastructure
Human Safety and Health
Disasters
Human settlements
Health
Economic Infrastructure
ICT (information &
communications
technology)
Roads & transportation
power production, supply,
transmission & access
Conservation and
Ecosystems
Biodiversity and natural
capital (ecosystems)
Ecosystem function/flows
Species conservation
Tourism
Agriculture
Subsistence agriculture
and food security
Commercial agriculture
(incl. irrigation)
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Massingir is the most vulnerable district, closely followed by Chicualacuala and Xai-Xai. This is mainly due to
the dependence on natural resources and reliance on social support.
Below is a brief summary of the sector’s characteristics that influence its vulnerability to current and future
climate. The complete vulnerability assessment can be found in Appendix D.
Sensitivity to climate change: The agricultural sector in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is sensitive
to climate change impacts. Apart from the irrigation schemes in Xai-Xai and Chokwe, the sector is rain-
fed, making it susceptible to changes in precipitation. Maize, the primary crop, is particularly
temperature sensitive. Cattle, which are among the livestock reared by local communities, are also
sensitive to changes in temperature as this affects their physiological health (through thermal stress). In
addition, the rural population is heavily dependent on subsistence farming, with few alternative
sources of income, and is therefore highly sensitive to climatic factors, changes in ground and surface
water availability, floods, and droughts.
Adaptive capacity: Adaptive capacity, to cope with and manage the impacts of climate variability and
change in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, is low on the whole. Areas benefiting from irrigation
schemes have relatively stronger adaptive capacity than those relying on rain-fed agriculture, but even
the irrigation schemes are susceptible to climate change impacts on the river. Initiatives that have
helped increase adaptive capacity in some areas include income diversification projects to reduce
reliance on cultivation, mixed farming, community-based Disaster Risk Management and Early Warning
Systems, and the relocation of households away from flood prone areas. In coastal areas, mangroves
provides natural adaptive capacity, but are also at risk from climate change impacts.
Sector Vulnerability: The agriculture sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo basin in Mozambique is
primarily a function of water availability, as well as the effects of climatic extremes - chiefly droughts
and floods. For all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the agricultural sector in the Mozambican
Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to change in the future, can be summarised as
follows:
Figure 9: Sector Vulnerability for each of the Three Regions of the Lower Limpopo Basin
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3.1.6. Human Safety and Health
Human safety and health in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique suffers from significant challenges. Human
safety is most at risk from the recurrent floods that plague the region. Several large flood events in recent
years have taken a high toll in terms of loss of human lives as well as displacement. Damage to property is
particularly severe because most housing stock is made up of low-grade, natural materials. Resource-poor
communities in the area struggle with malnutrition and food insecurity, particularly amongst children.
Livestock diseases and low quality grazing lands impact livestock productivity, which also contributes to
human malnutrition. The region has a high prevalence of HIV-AIDS, which further lowers human capacity.
Malaria is endemic in the region, and there have been several occurrences of other communicable
diseases.
The increasing occurrence of climate related extreme events including floods, droughts, cyclones, sea level
rise, saltwater intrusion, and related disasters has resulted in deaths, injuries, displacements, and property
losses. These events negatively impact Mozambique’s GDP and GDP growth rate, lower labour productivity,
and increase the country’s disease burden (through post-disaster water-borne disease epidemics). In the
coastal region, land is being lost to submergence and subsidence, causing depreciation of coastal property
value and forced displacement.
Below is a brief summary of the sector’s characteristics that influence its vulnerability to current and future
climate. The complete vulnerability assessment can be found in Appendix D.
Sensitivity to climate change: Widespread poverty makes communities living in the Mozambican
Limpopo Basin particularly sensitive to the impacts of climate change on human health and human
safety, including to natural disasters that have often had devastating consequences. Lack of access to
infrastructure, poor quality of roads and built structures, and low levels of education heighten
sensitivity. This is also reflected in relatively low access to clean drinking water.
Adaptive capacity: Adaptive capacity in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin in the human safety sector has
strengthened over the last decade, especially in relation to flood events. Government agencies as well
as donor initiatives have increased the capacity for early warning, monitoring, and forecasting. Local
community-based disaster preparedness and response efforts (which also address HIV-AIDS) have
produced some promising results. However, there is still a relative lack of adaptive capacity in the
health sector, in the context of climate change related impacts on human health. Similarly, disasters
other than floods also require a build-up of adaptive capacity. Hence, there is room for improvement.
Sector Vulnerability: The principal driver of climate vulnerability in the human safety and health sector
is the occurrence of climate related disasters, primarily floods and droughts (and the associated
malnutrition and vulnerability to disease). For all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the human
safety and health sector in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to
change in the future, can be summarised as follows:
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Inland Region Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors High High
Water Availability High High
Flood Events High High
Drought Periods High High
Western Region Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Medium Medium
Water Availability High High
Flood Events High High
Drought Periods High High
Coastal Region Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Low Low
Water Availability High Medium
Flood Events High High
Drought Periods Medium High
Figure 10: Sector Vulnerability for each of the Three Regions of the Lower Limpopo Basin
3.1.7. Water Supply and Sanitation
Water demand in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is relatively low, particularly in terms of urban
(domestic) and industrial use.
Over a third of the population in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin relies on an unimproved water source,
while the vast majority of people and households lack access to improved sanitation facilities. Water quality
problems have emerged in recent years due to agricultural runoff and contamination of streams and
groundwater with agricultural chemicals and fertilizers.
Even though current water demand is relatively modest, this is in part a reflection of the region being
largely arid, with limited water resources and thus hasn’t become a natural growth hub of in-migration and
population growth, However, the low demand is also a function of poverty and underdevelopment,
preventing populations from expanding water-consumptive activities at home and in commercial settings.
As domestic water supply improves, and the population increases in the Basin, per capita water
consumption is projected to rise, leading to a marked decline in water availability by mid-century. At
current rates of extraction, flow of the Limpopo River in Mozambique is under threat within a few decades.
Per capita water consumption is expected to grow with greater income levels and economic development.
As this trend materilizes, strategic approaches should be investigated to cater to this growing demand as
efficiently as possible. At the same time, it is important to examine whether all forms of water demand
growth should be encouraged, or if some areas of demand should be considered as trade-offs. For instance,
if agriculture in the region expands significantly, the river and the basin will likely become heavily water
stressed. This then has implications for domestic water supply and sanitation.
Climate change is expected to bring more heavy rainfall events, but not necessarily an overall increase in
annual rainfall volume. Heavy rainfall events do not improve water availability greatly because
groundwater recharge is low, and much of the rainfall is lost as runoff, and there is little storage.
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Moreover, climate change could increase drought intensity, creating drier, parched land with a reduced
absorption ability. Thus, there is a pressing need to develop new water sources for the region and enhance
resilience of the water supply and sanitation sector to climate change. Decisions made in upstream
countries will continue to influence the water availability and water quality in the basin.
Below is a brief summary of the sector’s characteristics that influence its vulnerability to current and future
climate. The complete vulnerability assessment can be found in Appendix D.
Sensitivity to climate change: In addition to overarching socio-economic contributors to sensitivity that
apply to all sectors in the Basin (covered in Chapter 5), key factor that contributes to sensitivity is
inadequate access to water supply and sanitation services and infrastructure, and water quality
degradation due to extractive activities in the Basin. Future sensitivity could potentially change due to
the movement of rural poor into towns, placing additional pressure on domestic water supply and
sanitation systems. In terms of exposure, existing water infrastructure is exposed to damage from
floods. Furthermore, drought contributes to catchment degradation, which increases flash flooding and
reduces recharge.
Adaptive capacity: The most significant source of adaptive capacity in the Limpopo Basin in
Mozambique is water storage in the form of the Massingir Dam and reservoir. The dam allows seasonal
and inter-annual variability to be moderated to a degree, assuring water for irrigation to the agrarian
communities of the Basin. Water supply for drinking and sanitation also benefits from Massingir, but
the main efforts at adaptive capacity in this regard are donor-led development projects that aim to
build more bore-wells and hand pumps and improve overall water supply management in the area.
During the investogation that informed this report, there was relatively less information about ongoing
efforts to increase recharge through catchment conservation.
Sector Vulnerability: The water supply and sanitation sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo Basin in
Mozambique is primarily due to insufficient and inconsistent water availability. For all three sub-
regions, current vulnerability of the water supply and sanitation sector in the Mozambican Limpopo
Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to change in the future, can be summarised as follows:
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Figure 11: Sector Vulnerability for each of the Three Regions of the Lower Limpopo Basin
3.1.8. Economic Infrastructure
Economic Infrastructure in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is severely lacking, making infrastructure
development an important stimulus for growth. There is a limited road network in the Basin, serving mainly
the coastal region. A north-south railway line is present but without a significant feeder network. Internet
access in the region is extremely low, although cell phone penetration is fairly high (along with a 3G
network). ICT infrastructure is accessible in Xai Xai and Chokwe, but otherwise deficient in the basin (not
including the power lines that carry electricity from Cahora Bassa to South Africa, which cross the region).
Floods in 2000 and 2013 demonstrated that Economic Infrastructure – particularly roads but also postal
and telecommunications systems – are at risk of significant damage from climate related extreme events.
Climate change has major implications for infrastructure in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique. A rise in
temperatures and dry spells affect road quality, increasing the need for maintenance. Similarly, damage to
roads, bridges, and culverts from extreme weather events such as floods will likely result in economic losses
– from both the cost of repairs as well as the slow down of economic activity such as trade (due to impaired
transportation). Additionally, there is the opportunity cost of money invested in repairs rather than in
building new infrastructure to support or spark economic activity. Thus, infrastructure damage from
climate change is expected to have economy-wide, long-term impacts.
Climate change is also expected to have impacts on the basin’s energy systems. Variability and
unpredictability of stream flow will likely affect hydropower generation at Massingir, which would in turn
affect revenue earned through the export of such hydroelectricity. Reliance on charcoal and wood for
cooking fuel could also face a threat from climate change, due to more intense droughts that could affect
vegetation (noting that this type of energy use also contributes to catchment degradation, further
exacerbating the impacts of floods).
Below is a brief summary of the sector’s characteristics that influence its vulnerability to current and future
climate The complete vulnerability assessment can be found in Appendix D.
Inland Region Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Low Medium
Water Availability High High
Flood Events High High
Drought Periods High High
Western Region Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Low Low
Water Availability High High
Flood Events High High
Drought Periods High High
Coastal Region Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Low Low
Water Availability High High
Flood Events High High
Drought Periods Medium Medium
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Sensitivity to climate change: The sector’s sensitivity is a function of the lack of adequate development
of the sector. Less than a tenth of the country (and the Basin) has paved roads. Of the roads that exist,
several are of poor quality. Infrastructure is located in areas that are at risk from flooding (both from
overflows on the main stem of the Limpopo river and coastal storm surges).Widespread damage to
roads and transport infrastructure during the 2000, 2013, and other recent floods is testament to the
sensitive location and quality of the road network. The damage has cost Mozambique millions of dollars
and negatively impact its GDP.
Adaptive Capacity: Several of the measures that have strengthened adaptive capacity of the Human
Safety sector, building resilience to extreme events such as floods, also contribute to adaptive capacity
of Economic Infrastructure. For instance, Early Warning Systems have improved provide the ability of
managers to be aware of risks to energy and telecommunications infrastructure. While it is challenging
to make infrastructure more adaptive once it has been built, recent initiatives by the AfDB and the
World Bank (amongst others) have been launched to integrate climate resilience into the infrastructure
design and development process, i.e. climate mainstreaming for climate-robust infrastructure. Pilot
projects on climate-resilient roads are underway. Adaptove capacity can be strengthened even ex post
facto by improving draininge on roads, strengthening roads in areasprone to flood damage,
strengthening pylons, diverting flod waters, constructive and maintaining clear culverts etc.
Sector Vulnerability: The single biggest contributor to climate vulnerability of economic infrastructure
in the Limpopo basin in Mozambique is extreme weather, specifically recurrent floods on the main
stem of the Limpopo River. For all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the economic
infrastructure sector in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to
change in the future, can be summarised as follows:
Inland Region Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Low Medium
Water Availability Low Medium
Flood Events High High
Drought Periods Low Medium
Western Region Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Low Low
Water Availability Medium High
Flood Events High High
Drought Periods Low Medium
Coastal Region Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Low Low
Water Availability Low Medium
Flood Events High High
Drought Periods Low Low
Figure 12: Sector Vulnerability for each of the Three Regions of the Lower Limpopo Basin
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3.1.9. Conservation and Ecosystems
The Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is home to several national parks and conservation areas. The region
already attracts tourists interested in wildlife and natural landscapes, and has significant potential for the
growth of ecotourism. The Basin is characterised by a diversity of vegetation types in the different sub-
regions, including mangroves in the coastal zone, and a network of small wetlands. Climate change poses a
threat not only to these ecosystems, but also to the tourism potential that rests on them. Aquatic
biodiversity includes a range of fish species. However, fishing activities are not carried out through
sustainable methods.
Climate change will have an impact on Mozambique’s biodiversity and ecosystems, including in the
Limpopo Basin. This is likely to result from both direct climatic impacts of warmer temperatures and
changes in rainfall, as well as from altered water availability within the ecosystems and the effects of
extreme weather events. Changes in climate affect the range, the length and timing of growing season.
Climate change is expected to alter the onset of the rains, thereby shifting some of the signals that trigger
key lifecycle events. Changes in temperature and rainfall and the tolerance of species can affect the range
of those species. Together these consequences make climate change one of several key factors contributing
to biodiversity loss. Fire-related degradation, as well as desertification, are also climate change related
impacts expected to increase and threaten the Limpopo Basin’s conservation areas and ecosystems.
Conversely, natural ecosystems provide critical regulating functions, helping mitigate the impacts of climate
change.
Below is a brief summary of the sector’s characteristics that influence its vulnerability to current and future
climate. The complete vulnerability assessment can be found in Appendix D.
Sensitivity to climate change: Ecosystems in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin are susceptible to climate
change due to the direct impacts of changing temperature and water availability on plant growth, on
animal health, on habitat ranges etc. The sensitivity of this sector is elevated through human-caused
degradation, such as the prevalent deforestation and poor land use and agricultural practices.
Freshwater ecosystems are also sensitive to salinisation, which is an increasing challenge due to
saltwater intrusion from rising sea levels, reduced freshwater flows and coastal subsidence.
Adaptive capacity: While Mozambique has several environmental frameworks, policies, and even laws
in place, it does not appear that any of them directly pertain to better protecting ecosystems and
biodiversity from climate change. Innovative measures to enhance or preserve adaptive capacity exist
on paper, such as maintaining Environmental Flows as advised by LIMCOM, but implementation
appears to be weak. Adaptive capacity is low in this sector. New and innovative mechanisms to improve
catchment conservation through micro-financing support could be considered.
Sector Vulnerability: The vulnerability of ecosystems, biodiversity, and the conservation sector in the
Limpopo basin arises from direct and indirect impacts of climate change that affect ecosystem health.
For all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the conservation and ecosystems sector in the
Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to change in the future, can be
summarised as follows:
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Inland Region Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors High High
Water Availability High High
Flood Events High High
Drought Periods High High
Western Region Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors High High
Water Availability High High
Flood Events High High
Drought Periods High High
Coastal Region Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Medium Medium
Water Availability High High
Flood Events High High
Drought Periods High High
Figure 13: Sector Vulnerability for each of the Three Regions of the Lower Limpopo Basin
3.1.10. Conclusion
Based on the vulnerability assessment conducted, there is a clear and pressing need to develop, introduce,
and strengthen adaptive capacity in each sector so that it is better equipped to cope with and manage the
impacts of climate change. With appropriate and effective climate change adaptation strategies in place,
Mozambique will be in a position to minimize the effects that climate change could have on development
gains made in the Limpopo Basin. Moreover, such strategies can establish a strong foundation for climate-
resilient development that empowers communities living in the Basin through the assurance of adequate
water resources.
4. Priority Strategies
The following strategies have been highlighted as priority strategies due to the scale of their potential
benefits within and across various sectors. The prioritization was guided by a qualitative evaluation of the
low regrets / no regrets nature of the available range of options, the connectivity of the strategies to
broader socio-economic development in the region, and their contribution to several of the SDGs, and an
understanding of how such strategies have been used with favourable outcomes elsewhere in similar
settings such as Mozambique.
These strategies are not listed in an ascending or descending order of priority, but rather have been
categorized based on where the primary responsibility lies for the design, financial investment, institutional
resources, and implementation of the strategy – i.e. national versus provincial strategies. It should be noted
that several strategies are applicable both at a national level and a provincial level, even though the spatial
context of these strategies remains the Limpopo river basin in Mozambique, covering Gaza and Inhambane
provinces.
Strategies to be Directed and Implemented by National Level Government Authorities in Mozambique
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Build new flood management infrastructure in Gaza province, on the main stem of the Limpopo River, and accelerate plans to enhance or expand existing flood management and control structures. This can protect human settlements, irrigation schemes, and built economic infrastructure from damaging impacts of floods. The proposed Mapai dam could be such a potential intervention. The Massingir could also be studied for further flood management potential. In both cases, the value of these dams for flood attenuation would rely strongly on improved warning systems and adaptive operational protocols to respond to flood peaks. This strategy would be particularly focused on the western hydro-climatic zone (primarily the Limpopo main stem area). It would lower risk by lowering exposure to hazards. Given that frequent floods are already a challenge for this region and exact a large human and economic toll regularly, building flood management infrastructure would be a low-regret option (as long as an appropriate and evidnece-based return period is chosen). While it may not be a low-cost option in terms of the budget required for such infrastructure, when a detailed evaluation of averted costs is conducted, it is likely that such a strategy may be cost-effective in the long run.
Accelerate existing plans to build new irrigation schemes and expand existing irrigation schemes in Gaza province, to increase the availability of, and access to, adequate water supply to support agriculture. This can help reduce reliance on rain-fed agriculture and enable greater income-generation from farming. For new or expanded irrigation schemes, additional sources of water need to be harnessed. This strategy could therefore be supported through the building of a dam and storage reservoir, if it adequately takes into account current climate variability and anticipated climate change. The proposed Mapai dam could be a potential source of new irrigation schemes. This strategy would be particularly focused on the western hydro-climatic zone (primarily the Limpopo main stem area). It would lower risk by strengthening adaptive capacity. Given that improved irrigation would support more productive agriculture and boost income levels in the region through a strengthened agriculture sector, it would be a low-regret option. While it may certainly entail sizeable costs, when a detailed evaluation of potential socio-economic benefits is conducted, it is likely that such a strategy may be cost-effective in the long run.
Accelerate existing plans to build a barrage or series of dikes in the coastal region of the Limpopo river basin, in Gaza province, to address the problem of storm surges, which will be compounded in the future with sea level rise. The design and location of such a physical barrier should adequately take into account current climate variability and anticipated climate change, should ensure that no damage occurs to natural barriers such as mangrove forests. This could be supplemented by implementing estuarine flows to address saltwater intrusion. This strategy would be particularly focused on the coastal hydro-climatic zone (primarily the Xai Xai area). It would lower risk by reducing exposure. Given that the coastal region is currently a source of significant economic activity, property, and home to a large section of the basin’s population, providing adequate protection in this region against storm surges and coastal erosion would be a low-regret option. Barrages and dikes come at a significant cost, and thus a full examination of the costs and benefits would be necessary to determine whether this should indeed remain within the priority strategies or be deferred for a later time when sea level rise and storm surge impacts are more clearly understood in the region.
Increase access to, and availability of, adequate water supply systems to communities in the Limpopo basin to meet their drinking water and sanitation needs. The meeting of basic water and sanitation needs supports population resilience, including improved health and a reduction in the water-borne disease burden. For an increase in water supply for human (and potentially industrial) use, additional sources of water need to be harnessed. This strategy would therefore be supported through the building of a multipurpose dam (such as the proposed Mapai dam) and storage reservoir, if it adequately takes into account current climate variability and
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anticipated climate change. This strategy would be focused on all three hydro-climatic zones within the basin. It would lower risk by strengthening adaptive capacity. Given that improved access to water would support human development as well as industrial activity regardless of climate change, it would be a low-regret option. While it may certainly entail sizeable costs, when a detailed evaluation of potential socio-economic benefits is conducted, it is likely that such a strategy may be cost-effective in the long run.
Redouble efforts to work with upstream nations to strengthen transboundary river basin management. No matter what Mozambique does within its section of the Limpopo basin, its resilience to climate change is dependent on developments in the remainder of the basin. Development, and with it increased water use and pollution in upstream nations, can alter the quality, timing and quantity of the Limpopo river’s flows when it enters Mozambique; watershed management and catchment management upstream can alter the integrity of the basin as a whole. Thus it is critical that Mozambique strengthens efforts to work closely with upstream countries, and for all basin partners to work in close alignment to ensure basin-wide climate change resilience.
Strategies to be Directed by and Implemented by Provincial Governments of Gaza and Inhambane
Continue and rigorously expand existing disaster management efforts by provincial disaster management departments that have demonstrated positive impacts. Substantial resources should be directed to the scale up of efforts including: (a) relocation of communities from high-flood risk areas, particularly through the provision of second, well-constructed homes with improved amenities; (b) the use of community-based teams that engage directly with rural populations to build awareness of disaster risk reduction and disaster response; and (c) the use of early warning systems.
Explicitly integrate climate variability and anticipated climate change into land-use planning frameworks, laws, regulations, tools, models, etc. Ensure that all land use decisions are informed by current and future climate change risk, and that human settlements and key economic infrastructure are carefully sited in low or no-risk areas, over time shifting land-use patterns away from disaster-prone regions.
Increase economic resilience by strengthening income-security of small-holder subsistence farmers, through support for value-addition – including assistance with livestock and mixed farming, small business development, market creation and access (perhaps through outgrower schemes attached to the existing irrigation developments), training for agro-based commodity development. This strategy should explicitly integrate preparedness for climate change, and thus include Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) approaches.
Scale up current efforts for natural and mechanical rainwater harvesting, though an expansion of the existing programme of building earthen or excavated reservoirs (but redesigned so as to allow not only for temporary seasonal storage but also groundwater recharge) and rooftop rainwater harvesting equipment (which could be supported through incentive programmes involving rebates and subsidies). Initiate catchment rehabilitation programmes, with the associated micro-financing incentives.
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Significantly expand existing disease surveillance and monitoring systems in the Gaza and Inhambane provinces, specifically with the integration of climate change into disease surveillance and monitoring protocols. Train health care providers to record and track climate-related impacts, to provide both a long-term evidence base as well as a means of identifying outbreak patterns that can inform well-designed future climate-health interventions.
Expand ecosystem-based conservation programmes in Gaza and Inhambane provinces, to help repair, maintain, and enhance the natural resilience of ecosystems. With strong ecosystem functioning (based in particular on ecosystem diversity), natural landscapes and species are more robust in their response to climatic shocks. Such an ecosystem-based conservation programme (expanding on any existing efforts) should include, inter alia: (a) effective implementation of e-flows regulations, and strengthening e-flows requirements as needed; (b) maintenance of riparian zones; (c) adequate implementation of policies to curb deforestation and degradation (including from fuelwood collection); (d) the introduction of local (indigenous) but climate-resilient vegetation after in-depth, locally tailored research; and (e) the creation of a digital information and monitoring system to better track and understand species and landscape changes in response to climate change, such as species range shifts, invasive species, changes in growing seasons etc.
While the scope of this current strategy-development effort does not provide for an investigation of actual
and relative costs of the recommended strategies, it is recommended that the strategies be fully and
comprehensively be investigated by ARA-Sul through the proposed pre-feasibility and feasibility study
stages of the Mapai Dam project development cycle. Additionally, a project-preparation effort similar to
the WACDEP programme could be launched in Mozambique to make a detailed assessment of the costs,
benefits, and other implications of each of these strategies, to further identify where investment should be
prioritized.
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APPENDIX A: Stakeholder Consultation
The vulnerability assessment and the climate resilience strategy were developed in consultation with a
variety of stakeholders in Mozambique. The list of stakeholders that were consulted during the two phases
are provided below.
Stakeholders Consulted during the Development of the Vulnerability Assessment
ANAC: Administração Nacional das Áreas de Conservação - National Agency for Conservation Areas
ARA-SUL: Administração Regional de Águas do Sul – Regional Water Administration South Region
Chokwe Irrigation Scheme
IIAM: Instituto de Investigação Agrária de Moçambique - Institute of Agricultural Research
INAM: Instituto Nacional de. Meteorologia - National Meteorology Institute
INGC: Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades (Gaza Province) - National Institute of Disaster
Management
INGC: Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidades (Head Quarters) - National Institute of Disaster
Management
INIR: Instituto Nacional de Irrigação - National Irrigation Institute
GIZ: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH – representative of the
Vulnerability Sourcebook project
MISAU: Ministério de Saúde - Ministry of Health
MITADER: Ministério da Terra, Ambiente e Desenvolvimento Rural - Ministry of Land, Environment
and Rural Development
UEM: Universidade Eduardo Mondlane - Eduardo Mondlane University (Hydrologist)
UEM: Universidade Eduardo Mondlane - Eduardo Mondlane University (Climatologist)
Xai-Xai Irrigation Scheme
Stakeholders Consulted during the Development of the Climate Resilience Strategy
ARA-SUL: Administração Regional de Águas do Sul – Regional Water Administration South Region
National Irrigation Institute
(To be completed based on receipt of written comments from stakeholders)
To Be Consulted in Anticipated Stakeholder Consultations:
Mozambique Council for Sustainable development (CONDES)
Ministry for Coordination of Environmental Affairs (MICOA)
LIMCOM
Energy Sector Decisionmakers
Civil Society and NGOs
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APPENDIX B: Review of Resilience Strategies
This appendix provides a list of various water-resource-focused climate resilience strategies that have been
explored in the development of the climate resilience strategy for the Limpopo basin in Mozambique.
These strategies include current sector-specific strategies already being implemented by the Government
of Mozambique, a review of traditional and modern adaptation practices prevalent in the region, and an
examination of case studies in international basins plus best practice guidelines.
Strategies by the Government of Mozambique
Agenda 2025 (GoM 2003)
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) (2007)
National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy (NCCAMS) (2013 - 2025)
INGC: Responding to Climate Change in Mozambique (INGC Phase II, 2009 -2012)
Strategic Plan for Agricultural Development (PEDSA 2010 - 2019)
Poverty Reduction Action Plan (PARP) (2011 - 2014)
National Programme for Agricultural Development (PROAGRI)
Rural Finance Strategy (2011)
Master Plan for Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Disasters (2006)
Environmental Strategy for the Sustainable Development (EADS) of Mozambique (2007)
National Water Resources Management Strategy (2006)
Strategies related to the Limpopo Basin
LIMCOM: Limpopo River Basin Monograph (2013)
RESILIM: Risk, Vulnerability and Resilience in the Limpopo River Basin (2015)
Strategies by the Southern African Development Community (SADC)
Regional Climate Change Programme (RCCP): Strategic Transboundary Water Resources
Assessment (2011)
SADC: Climate Change Adaptation in SADC - A Strategy for the Water Sector (2011)
SADC Issue Paper on Climate Change: Assessing the Policy Options for SADC Member States (by D
Lesolle, 2012)
Strategies by International Institutions on Mozambique
World Bank and GFDRR: Vulnerability, Risk Reduction, and Adaptation to Climate Change (2011)
Strategies by International River Basin Authorities
Nile Basin Climate Change Strategy (2013)
Murray Darling Basin: Building Resilience to a Changing Climate - A climate Change Adaptation Plan
(2014)
Volta Basin: Water, Climate, Food, and Environment in the Volta Basin (Ghana) (2003)
Catskill Creek - Hudson River: Catskill Village Resilience Strategy (2014)
Rising Waters: Helping Hudson River Communities Adapt to Climate Change Scenario Planning 2010
– 2030 (2009)
California Climate Adaptation Strategy (CAS) (2009)
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Best Practice Review
African Ministers' Council on Water (AMCOW), Global Water Partnership (GWP) and Climate and
Development Knowledge Network (CDKN): Strategic Framework - Water Security and Climate
Resilient Development. Water, Climate and Development Programme (WACDEP) (2012)
IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
(2012)
United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and Global Water Partnership (GWP): Strategic
Framework - WASH Climate Resilient Development (2014)
Asia-Pacific Water Forum, Asian Development Bank and Global Water Partnership (GWP): Meta-
Guidelines for Water and Climate Change: For practitioners in Asia and the Pacific (2015)
Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) and South African National Biodiversity Institute
(SANBI): Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios (LTAS) Flagship Research Programme (2013)
InWent: Towards Climate Change Adaptation - Building Adaptive Capacity in Managing African
Transboundary River Basins (2008).
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APPENDIX C: Sector-Specific Interventions
This section provides an overview of various interventions that have the potential to reduce the exposure
and sensitivity of key economic sectors in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique, and can increase adaptive
capacity of the sectors. As such these represent a large universe of adaptation options available to
Mozambique for water-sector (and broader) climate resilience in the Limpopo river basin. Some of these
are already reflected in existing approaches. While the scope of the current project does not allow for a
detailed evaluation of the on-the-ground efficacy of each of these options, the list that follows is indicative
of the variety of options both the provinces of Gaza and Inhambane, ARA-Sul, and the national government
have at their disposal.
As discussed previously, these strategies can include:
Socio-economic approaches focused on improving social resilience, such as improving education
levels, promoting income security or improving knowledge of climate risks
Physical approaches such as irrigation infrastructure, household water storage solutions and green
infrastructure
Institutional (governance) approaches such as land-use planning approaches, farmer-based
organisations and improving institutional capacity. This also includes financial mechanisms such as
insurance, low-interest loans or access to credit.
C1. Agriculture
C1.1 Vulnerability of the Agriculture Sector
The agriculture sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo basin in Mozambique is primarily a function of
water availability in the face of increased demand, as well as the effects of climatic extremes - chiefly
droughts and floods. These exposure elements – which are expected to increase and intensify with climate
change - are compounded by the sensitivity of the sector, given the high proportion of rain-fed subsistence
agriculture in the Limpopo basin, the physical location of critical irrigation schemes in flood-risk areas in
Gaza province, and the climate-sensitive nature of major crops grown in this basin (maize and sugarcane).
Adaptive capacity is typically lacking in this basin (and the two provinces it straddles), with low levels of
income generation from agriculture leading to less income-security and lower access to resources when
crops fail or are damaged by floods.
Sub-regional Perspective
In the arid inland sub-region (Changane catchment), there is frequently and seasonally a scarcity of water and as there is virtually no storage, water yields are low. This limits the nature of agriculture in the area to rain-fed, subsistence agriculture. This makes the region particularly vulnerable to drought. Limited infrastructure in this sub-region (including roads) constrains access to markets for agricultural products.
In the western sub-region (Limpopo main stem), there is a large irrigation scheme in Chokwe enabling the growth of commercial agriculture, but areas farther upstream do not benefit from these irrigation facilities. Even the irrigation scheme that does service Chokwe is at risk from floods on the Limpopo river, which have been known to cause damage to dykes and canals. The Massingir dam is being expanded to provide more yield and support more irrigation, but there is still greater need.
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In the coastal sub-region, there is a run of river irrigation scheme in Xai Xai (which also supports commercial agriculture, in addition to subsistence farming). However, saltwater intrusion into the scheme has caused salinity in the water, leading to crop losses. This is likely to be exacerbated with sea level rise. Additionally, this scheme is also at risk of damage when the Limpopo river main stem floods. However, water demands at this scheme are lower due to the higher rainfall.
C1.2 Potential Adaptation Measures for Agriculture
A range of possible adaptation measures could be introduced in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique to
strengthen climate resilience in the agricultural sector. A survey of best practices from similarly situated
countries, review of select climate adaptation strategies and programme reports from across Africa, and an
investigation of what is already being done in Mozambique reveal a wide choice of adaptation actions.
Some of these are listed below as examples:
Socio-economic approaches
i. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should promote diversification of income sources, to reduce
reliance on subsistence agriculture. When households have a diversity of revenue sources, they are
less affected by single shocks such as an extreme event that destroys crops or a climate-related
pest infestation etc. The provinces’ agricultural extension services and economic development
offices should identify which additional income sources are most viable (e.g. value-added
agriculture or small-scale agro-based industries, or alternately meat and dairy farming with cattle,
or making agro-based products like mats and reed furniture etc.) and invest resources in vocational
trainings, skills development, and income generation workshops. It should be noted that livestock
farming is not a climate-resilient option in many cases (due to both water demand and the animals’
sensitivity to climatic shocks); thus this option should be introduced only after careful consideration
and study.
ii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces, with support from the national government, should improve
overall education levels in the community to enhance awareness of climate change and variability
related risks, so that farmers are empowered to make choices to reduce their risks. Specific
educational drives (such as workshops that use material additional to existing curricula) should be
conducted by the provinces with a clear focus on climate change, as opposed to agricultural
development more generally (which is already happening in some form). This is particularly
necessary in Inhambane province, which has relatively poor educational indices in comparison, and
where farmers have fewer options at their disposal in coping with climatic impacts compared to
those along the Limpopo main stem. These educational drives should focus on the types of climate
change impacts that are locally relevant in this region, e.g. flooding on the main Limpopo stem, sea
level rise on the coast, drought etc.
Physical approaches
iii. Develop new irrigation schemes in Gaza province with storage, and expand existing irrigation
schemes to ensure the agricultural sector can evolve from rain-fed and subsistence based to having
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a secure and consistent source of water. This would support the growth of commercial agriculture
(including commercial agriculture incentivised to have outgrower schemes).
iv. In the Changane catchment, developing new irrigation schemes is a greater challenge, but a
possible physical approach is to invest in more pumps for farmers to use. Those implementing such
a strategy should study the benefits from different type of pumps and choose the ones with greater
benefits – treadle, solar, or ram. Similarly, communities could benefit from the construction of
more earthen reservoirs (to collect and use water in the wet season), a strategy that is already
being implemented but could be ramped up, after careful study about water quality and quantity
impacts downstream.
v. A less viable and higher-risk approach is inter-basin transfers of flood water from the Limpopo
mainstream to the Changane basin. This should only be considered when low-regret approaches
have been exhausted. However, this strategy has elicited interest from ARA-Sul, and the national
government could thus invest more resources into studying the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of
this, especially in light of climate change in these basins.
Institutional approaches
Note that these all have varying implementation and delivery timescales.
vi. Through collaboration with agricultural research institutes, update agricultural sector
plans/strategies with a focus on climate change. There is an example of a strategy that is already
underway (by the National Irrigation Institute), but there is scope for even more climate change
mainstreaming into all agriculture and irrigation plans, both at the national level and within the
provincial level. These updates can provide an opportunity to assess which aspects of such existing
plans and strategies have been successful and which have produced limited results, allowing for
recalibration and strengthening of agricultural strategies in the context of climate change.
vii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should provide training to farmers on climate change adaptation, in
collaboration with private sector actors. This is already being done in Xai-Xai as a collaboration
between Wanbao and local farmers, through the auspices of the provincial Directorate of
Agriculture. These types of knowledge and skills-building trainings could focus on Climate Smart
Agriculture, and enhance awareness of impacts from climate change as well as teaching how to use
response measures such as drought-resistant seeds, improved soil tillage practices (such as
conservation tillage), and related adaptation measures. Initial results of such a strategy indicate
that farmers were able to double or triple yields, and thus the provinces should scale this up,
investing more resources.
viii. A corollary of the above approach is to build greater institutional capacity in the very institutions at
the Province level that support such trainings in the agricultural community, such as extension
services, agricultural research facilities, local governments’ agricultural departments etc. Budgets of
the Directorate of Agriculture in Gaza and Inhambane province should be increased, and more skills
training should be provided to these officials.
ix. Gaza and Inhambane provinces (including state universities situated within them) should conduct
research on the inhibiting factors to small-holder farming expansions, and develop relevant
business development mechanisms (in collaboration with different sectors). This should identify
specific factors within Gaza and Inhambane that impede farm expansion (e.g. lack of credit) and
should target interventions that are suitable for these local communities specifically.
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x. Both the national and provincial agricultural agencies, in coordination with INGC, should develop
agricultural disaster management plans, to prepare for times when crops and livestock are affected
by climate related events such as floods, droughts, wildfires etc. Having institutionalised processes
and mechanisms in place in Gaza and Inhambane (such as reimbursements, crop insurance, or
other forms of assistance) can help reduce the negative consequences of such disasters on the
agriculture sector in the basin.
xi. Gaza and Inhambane provinces (and universities situated within them) should conduct more
research on locally relevant climate adaptation for the agriculture sector, focused on the specific
crops that grow here (e.g. maize and sugarcane). While a wealth of information is available globally
and regionally, it is important to invest in research that is specific to local conditions in these two
provinces (i.e. in the Limpopo basin), such as local staple crops, local farming practices, locally
available resources, local soil conditions etc., so as to identify the most location-specific adaptation
measures that can be used within the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique. More R&D could focus on
identifying which species will benefit from or thrive in changing climatic conditions in the Limpopo
basin, and will inform crop switching. It could help the development of climate resilient seeds or
varieties for local staples. It could highlight which crops are most at risk and indicate how to
specifically protect them within local conditions, and so on. These provincial efforts could also be
supplemented by national level climate change R&D initiatives that study the Limpopo basin.
xii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces’ disaster management authorities should collaborate with the
provinces’ agricultural agencies to provide early warning systems that detect the types of climatic
events or factors in this region that materially affect the agriculture sector in the Limpopo basin.
Existing EWS systems do not appear to be specially customized to the agriculture sector. Even
where ag-specific warnings exist, communication and information-dissemination remain a
challenge.
xiii. Introduce / improve water allocation mechanisms to provide for variable assurance of supply.
C1.3 Recommended Resilience Strategies for ARA-Sul to Consider
At the core of agricultural vulnerability in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique – to both climate variability
and climate change (which includes sea level rise) – is the variance and unpredictability of water availability
(or firm yield). This has constrained agricultural development, the growth of value-addition in the sector,
hampered commercial farming, and limited the areas where farming can take place.
Thus, the primary (water resource related) climate resilience strategy for the basin as a whole is as follows:
I. Increase the availability of, and access to, adequate water supply to support agriculture.
This would translate into the construction of new irrigation schemes and extending existing
irrigation schemes. The national government would have to mandate and facilitate this, but the
actual management of this strategy would rest on the provinces.
However, in a region that is often water-stressed, any development of new irrigation schemes or
extension of existing schemes is only viable if the firm yield of water is increased. Moreover, given
the seasonal variation in the Limpopo river, which often floods in the wet season and falls to
extremely low levels in the dry season, the feasibility of new or extended irrigation schemes would
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be dependent on safeguarding against seasonal inconsistencies in water availability. This would
require the development of adequate water storage to ensure that the irrigation schemes can be
fed sufficiently at all times, and increasing the yield through variable assurance of supply.
Ideally, this water infrastructure project would be sited upstream of Chokwe, so that areas
currently north-west of Chokwe that do not have access to an irrigation scheme could also see the
development of a scheme that services them, but it would also provide water into schemes farther
downstream. The proposed Mapai dam could be such an option, once investigated thoroughly.
While irrigation schemes can serve areas around the main stem of the Limpopo river (in Gaza
province), there are more far-flung areas (including in the Changane sub-basin) where irrigation
schemes cannot be extended. For such areas, it is recommended that an existing strategy being
implemented by ARA-Sul be expanded. This involves the building of excavated reservoirs in the
earth that can capture rainwater (i.e. rainwater harvesting), filling up with as much as 35,000 m3 of
water.
Additional resilience strategies recommended for the Limpopo basin (mainly Gaza province) include the
following:
II. Protect irrigation scheme infrastructure and crops in the river’s flood plain from floods
While intermittent flooding is beneficial to the agricultural sector in the Limpopo’s flood plain if the
flooding is managed carefully (to provide fertile alluvium for crops and provide more soil moisture),
larger floods can be catastrophic for crops in Gaza. Thus, new and additional flood prevention,
control and management infrastructure and processes should be introduced to better regulate
floods. This is also beneficial to existing and potentially expanded irrigation schemes, so as to
protect these capital assets and reduce the need for rebuilding and costly repairs after extreme
flooding. The construction of new and additional flood control structures in Gaza would be
mandated by the national government (including a key role by ARA-Sul), but the management of
such interventions would be the responsibility of the province. One potential source of guidance in
designing and implementing such a strategy is the EU flood directive.
III. Increase income-security of small-holder subsistence farmers through support for value-addition,
or more outgrower schemes and assurance of markets for supply.
Adaptive capacity for farmers in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique, particularly small-holder,
subsistence farmers in Gaza and Inhambane, should be increased by providing them greater income
security. Higher income levels would enable not only greater savings to help tide over crop failure
or crop loss from floods and droughts, but would allow re-investment into agriculture so as to
improve productivity and efficiency (for instance, through the purchase of fertilizers, higher yielding
seed varieties, purchase of livestock for mixed farming etc.). Income levels can be boosted by
providing greater access to markets (through improved road connectivity), through promoting
more access to credit (such as low-interest loans), and by providing extension services and trainings
to educate farmers about Climate Smart Agriculture, value-addition opportunities, and improved
farming practices overall. As described earlier in this chapter, Gaza and Inhambane provinces
should promote diversification of income sources, to reduce reliance on subsistence agriculture.
When households have a diversity of revenue sources, they are less affected by single shocks such
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as an extreme event that destroys crops or a climate-related pest infestation etc. The provinces’
agricultural extension services and economic development offices should identify which additional
income sources are most viable (e.g. value-added agriculture or small-scale agro-based industries,
or alternately meat and dairy farming with cattle if viable, or making agro-based products like mats
and reed furniture etc.) and invest resources in vocational trainings, skills development, and income
generation workshops.
For the inland sub-region (Changane catchment), where new or extended irrigation facilities are not a cost-
effective option (due to the distances that water would have to be transported and the flat nature of
terrain that would impede storage), the following climate resilience strategy is suggested as an alternate
version of the strategy above:
Increase income-security of small-holder subsistence farmers by supporting livestock farming,
where such livestock farming contributes to climate resilience and not climate vulnerability.
Improved irrigation is not a feasible option to increase water availability in the inland area. This
inherently limits the development of commercial agriculture and value-addition for crops like grain,
fruits, vegetables etc. However, even in semi-arid regions like this, greater resilience can be
generated by increasing income levels. This can be done through an increase in livestock-based
agriculture, which can also be supported by increasing access to credit, plus trainings and skills-
development on livestock rearing plus value-addition through dairy and meat based products.
Farmers in Gaza province own many heads of cattle, but cultural factors have resulted in cattle
owners not using their cattle for productive activities and income generation. The provinces of
Gaza and Inhambane should actively create markets where cattle and derivative products (milk,
cheese, hide etc.) can be traded. Examples of such market creation have worked well in Zambia and
other parts of southern Africa, and thus can be introduced in the Limpopo basin, customizing the
markets to local needs and after engaging local cattle owners to make them more aware of such
opportunities, so as to counteract the cultural disinclination to trade in cattle or cattle-related
products.
C2. Water Supply and Sanitation
C2.1 Vulnerability of Water Supply and Sanitation in the Limpopo Basin, Moz.
The water supply and sanitation sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is primarily
due to insufficient and inconsistent water availability. The basin alternates between an overabundance of
water during the wet season, often manifesting as floods, and a scarcity of water in the dry season,
resulting in parched lands and often as a period of drought. Groundwater gets replenished periodically, but
with an increasing population expansion and growing water demand for both irrigation and domestic use,
groundwater levels are not expected to keep up with levels of demand. Current per capita water
consumption levels in urban areas are low, but this is also expected to see an upward trend, creating more
demand for drinking water in households and industries. The overall lack of consistency in river flows and
inadequate water supply and sanitation infrastructure make this sector vulnerable due to its
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underdevelopment. Additionally, insufficient water supply and sanitation is in turn a contributor to
vulnerability of the population to disease, leading to overall low levels of adaptive capacity.
Sub-regional Perspective
In the inland sub-region (Changane catchment), the population largely relies on groundwater. However, groundwater quality is a matter of concern for geologic reasons, and is likely to worsen with climate change and heightened pressure on limited freshwater aquifers.
In the western sub-region (Limpopo main stem), water supply and sanitation is less of a challenge in relative terms because most urban users have access to water, and many have access to improved sanitation facilities (albeit there is significant room for improvement). This sub-region is more densely populated than the inland region, with a higher concentration of towns and cities and commercial centres. Thus, water demand here is expected to grow more sharply.
In the coastal sub-region, water quality issues also affect water supply and sanitation. Saltwater intrusion as accelerated due to sea level rise is already a challenge for the main stem of the Limpopo. While some towns like Xai Xai are well supplied with water, more remote regions still lack adequate water supply and sanitation. As population grows and cities expand, demand on water is expected to grow markedly.
C2.2 Potential Adaptation Measures for Water Supply and Sanitation
A suite of possible adaptation measures could be considered in Gaza and Inhambane provinces to
strengthen climate resilience in the water supply and sanitation sector. A survey of best practices from
similarly situated countries, review of climate adaptation material, and an investigation of what is already
being done in Mozambique reveal a wide choice of adaptation actions. Some of these are enumerated
below as examples:
Socio-economic approaches
i. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should continue to implement and should expand communication
and knowledge sharing drives on how to treat water that is sourced directly from the river and from
aquifers. In addition, the human health impacts associated with drinking unsafe water should also be
addressed in more awareness building trainings. This is already underway in the form of an
awareness drive about the use of chlorine to disinfect water, but these communication drives by the
provinces should be redesigned to also focus in particular on the growing prevalence of climate-
change related water quality hazards including water-borne diseases.
ii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should continue to implement and should expand communication
and knowledge sharing drives on safe sanitation in instances where sanitation infrastructure is not
available. In addition, general water pollution from improper waste disposal, and inadequate waste
management practices should also be addressed. This is being done both by governments and by
non-profit organizations, but given the increased risk from climate change the climate element
should be integrated into these drives in the provinces in the Limpopo basin (e.g. flooding and
overflow of waste disposal facilities). Sanitation is especially a problem area in rural areas of the
basin, because urban centres largely have facilities, as per official figures. Thus the focus should be on
rural areas, especially those population centres that are situated close to the river’s main stem.
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Institutional approaches
iii. ARA-Sul should regularly update catchment management and water management plans for the
Limpopo river basin, integrating climate change. This includes water planning frameworks and water
supply strategies that also address short- and long-term water availability and supply changes due to
anticipated climate impacts. This type of water resource management should be done not only at a
catchment level, but also a local level.
iv. ARA-Sul should lead the strengthening of strict water governance frameworks for regulating water in
the region. This should be a cross-sectoral and inter-departmental process to help incorporate
climate adaptation into all water related activities and sectors. An example of this would be
integrating climate change into a water quality framework, which also includes water contamination
during flood events.
v. ARA-Sul should develop and implement a digital, online water resource management and monitoring
information system that houses up-to-date information on water availability, water use and water
quality. This will also assist in effective planning for water use in the region, and can be shared with
provinces and also be accessible to the general public.
vi. The national government should build the capacity both nationally and sub-nationally that is required
to ensure sustainable and adaptable management of water resources, including for sanitation
purposes. This can be achieved through knowledge generation (i.e. research), knowledge
dissemination (i.e. training, education or workshops) and informed action (i.e. pilot programs). More
resources in the budget should be allocated for this.
vii. Water supply agencies in the provinces, in coordination with the national government, should
implement tiered domestic and commercial water tariffs systems which not only promote efficient
water use by charging high water users (based on their deviation from average baseline use and
relative to their specific water needs), but also raise capital for the water supplying entity to enable
more adaptation interventions, routine maintenance, network expansion etc.
Physical approaches
viii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should develop new water supply systems, infrastructure, and
networks and expand existing systems to provide more water supply, and to keep up with growing
water consumption and demand. This should be done taking climate change projections and trends
into account, in a climate-resilient manner, and less vulnerable to droughts and floods.
ix. With the help of national level technical staff and ARA-Sul, Gaza and Inhambane provinces should
adapt existing water supply infrastructure to changing climatic conditions, and integrate climate
change into new water infrastructure to be planned and built. For instance, examine the impact of
growing sedimentation on water supply and sanitation systems, or scouring from floods.
x. ARA-Sul should collaborate with the provinces to develop adaptable water supply infrastructure that
can deal with multiple climate impacts. An example of this is building a large dam that stores water
during droughts, and also regulates or diverts flood water during flood events. The mandate for this
may have to come from national government agencies.
xi. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should conduct risk and engineering reviews of existing infrastructure
to identify climate adaptation needs, particularly with respect to their ability to survive floods. This
could be done in collaboration with the National Institute of Irrigation.
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xii. ARA-Sul and the two provinces should update existing infrastructure to deal with prevalent climate
impacts. An example of this would be raising the heights of dams or water treatment plants, or
expanding the capacity of drainage systems, depending on the impacts that are anticipated.
xiii. The national government as well as the two provinces in the Limpopo basin should develop
partnerships with the insurance industry to promote regular system and infrastructure maintenance.
xiv. Gaza and Inhambane, in collaboration with provincial Disaster Management agencies, should develop
an early warning system and/or monitoring framework that ensures early detection of material
climate risks that are likely to result in damage to water supply and sanitation infrastructure.
xv. ARA-Sul and the two provinces should investigate the value of multiple smaller water storage systems
(such as a series of small multi-purpose dams or excavated reservoirs) that provide water to several
dispersed urban areas or a large conglomeration of rural areas, instead of building a few large or
mega dams. Feasibility studies should be conducted to ensure this does not in fact increase
evaporation.
xvi. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should develop household water supply mechanisms for local
communities (i.e. water harvesting), targeting the rural population, to promote water supply. The
national government should promote the adoption of such equipment by providing financial
subsidies and rebates for the same.
xvii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should expand the existing network of boreholes / borewells, in
coordination with ARA-Sul.
xviii. The two provinces should invest in further expansion of newer technologies for household rural
sanitation systems (and/or adapt current latrine systems to climate related impacts. This could also
involve exploring small-scale biological systems (i.e. creating fertiliser and healthy soils from human
waste) or leveraging wetlands and water ponds common in the Changane sub basin.
xix. Ventilated and Improved Pit-latrines should be avoided in flood prone areas.
xx. Gaza and Inhambane should develop back-up/alternate infrastructure to be used in instances when
climatic factors or extreme events impact existing infrastructure. This can include cost-effective
backup household water storage and supply mechanisms for the urban population.
xxi. The provinces should expand access to household water treatment technologies, such as filters and
disinfectants. This is already happening but can be scaled up and could target universal coverage.
xxii. ARA-Sul and the provincial authorities should invest in technologies that reduce the impact of
saltwater on water supply infrastructure, such as through lined pipe systems and filtration systems
etc.
C2.3 Recommended Resilience Strategies for ARA-Sul to Consider
Season variation and inconsistent timing and availability of water underlies the water supply and sanitation
sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique. Currently, while some towns have adequate
access to improved water supply and sanitation, this supply network has yet to provide for more far-flung,
rural areas. As population and density grow, it will become imperative to provide the area with more water,
which will require accessing new and additional sources of water supply.
Thus, the primary climate resilience strategy for the basin (Gaza and Inhambane provinces) is as follows:
I. Increase the availability of, and access to, adequate water supply and sanitation for population
use
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This would translate into the development of new water supply and sanitation systems and
expansion of existing networks in both Gaza and Inhambane provinces. There is already traction for
this at the national and provincial level, thus it is recommended that these existing plans be
expedited and better resourced so as to fully implement this within a 2-3 year timeframe.
However, given that water supplies in the basin are already stretched (with competing demand
from irrigation), any development of new water supply networks or extension of existing networks
is only viable if there are additional sources of water to bring into the additional systems.
Moreover, given the seasonal variation in the Limpopo river, which often floods in the wet season
and falls to extremely low levels in the dry season, the feasibility of new or extended irrigation
systems would be dependent on safeguarding against seasonal and inter-annual unpredictability in
water availability. This would require the development of adequate water storage to ensure that
the water treatment and supply systems could have a reliable source at all times.
Ideally, this water infrastructure project would be sited where there are currently no safe and
reliable drinking water supplies, so that areas that presently rely on groundwater and do not have
adequate water for drinking and sanitation can receive access. This would enable more resilient
development of currently underserved populations. The Mapai dam could be one such option.
Given the slight variations in water supply and sanitation needs in the different sub-regions, the following
are suggested as slight alternatives to the recommendation above (which applies largely to the western /
main stem sub—region):
II. For the Inland (Changane catchment) sub-region, increase groundwater recharge through water
harvesting
There is less potential for new river-based water supply and storage systems in the Changane
catchment. However, to make the region more climate resilient in terms of water supply and
sanitation, Gaza and Inhambane provinces should continue to build and enhance water harvesting
systems. This includes both ground-based water harvesting such as through earthen tanks or
excavated reservoirs (to increase groundwater recharge and replenish aquifers) and household
based systems (such as rooftop rainwater harvesting) for domestic use. The national government
could initiate support for the adoption of such measures, through subsidies, rebates, and similar
incentives. While ARA-Sul is already building excavated reservoirs, these have thus far only been
designed to capture and store water for seasonal use during the wet season. It would be more far-
sighted to design the water structures to allow for percolation and groundwater recharge (a
method that has been successful in arid regions of India, for instance). This would enhance long-
term resilience as opposed to just being a short-term seasonal measure.
III. For the coastal sub-region, invest in measures to safeguard from storm surges and to also
supplement groundwater
A physical structure such as a barrage could be investigated to address storm surges, but even
natural coastal defences such as mangrove forests should be protected and promoted to reduce
coastal erosion and subsequent saltwater intrusion. Similar to the Changane catchment, the
government could support measures for household based rainwater harvesting systems and
filtration systems to help supplement existing water supply with additional non-saline water. Such a
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barrage would have to receive a mandate from the national government (ARA-Sul and INGC) but its
management would be the responsibility of Gaza province.
C3. Human Safety and Health
C3.1 Vulnerability of the Human Safety and Health Sector in the Limpopo Basin
The principal driver of climate vulnerability in the human safety and health sector is the occurrence of
climate related disasters, primarily floods. Not only do large floods on the Limpopo river in Mozambique
cause massive casualties in terms of human deaths and injuries, they destroy or damage property, leaving
affected populations without adequate shelter or even completely displaced. Floods also cause damage to
transportation and electricity infrastructure, leaving communities without recourse to travel to safer areas
or without electricity and communication mechanisms. Moreover, in the aftermath of major flood events,
water supplies are compromised due to contamination or due to a larger group of people relying on the
same limited amount of clean water sources. This precipitates water borne disease outbreaks, and also
increases the risk of vector multiplication, increasing the risk of diseases like malaria.
Sub-regional Perspective In the inland sub-region (Changane catchment), greater flooding is likely due to climate change,
as a result of increased heavy rainfall events. In particular, increased tropical cyclones rainfall activity is anticipated. Drought, on the other hand, is also likely to increase and become more intense due to higher temperatures and greater rates of evaporation. This also raises the risk of wild fires.
In the western sub-region (Limpopo main stem), climate change projections indicate more variable rainfall, including more heavy rainfall events. This could contribute to more frequent and more intense floods. As above, droughts are also predicted to become more prolonged, due to more rainfall variability, and higher temperatures and evaporation. Similarly, wildfire threats could increase.
In the coastal sub-region, rising sea levels and elevated coastal erosion are likely to result in more flooding from coastal inundation and from storm surges. Being a low-lying area near the mouth of the main stem of the Limpopo, this also makes the area vulnerable to flooding when water levels in the main stem overflow. .
C3.2 Potential Adaptation Measures for Human Safety and Health
Socio economic approaches
i. Provincial departments of Disaster Management in Gaza and Inhambane should engage in more
research to investigate what can be improved in terms of communication about disasters. Evidence
suggests even when people receive information about floods they choose to not move. Greater
insights should be evolved on why this is and what can be done to address this. This is already
taking place but these efforts should be scaled up with additional resources and by bringing in
communication science and behavioural experts who would work closely with the provinces.
ii. Provincial departments of Disaster Management in Gaza and Inhambane should expand
programmes to improve overall levels of disaster related education so that people have a stronger
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understanding of risks from extreme events such as floods. While this is already being done,
effective strategies like this need to be scaled up and provided greater resources.
iii. Provincial governments in Gaza and Inhambane should work towards improving livelihood
opportunities for local communities, particularly in rural areas, and support income generation so
that people have increased levels of income and savings to provide a buffer when affected by
extreme events.
iv. Bespoke flood warnings, pertinent to the impacts for specific areas, and relevant to the expected
magnitude of the flood and recommended response need to be developed. These must be bottom
up approaches.
Physical / technological approaches
v. ARA-Sul, in collaboration with INGC and provincial governments of Gaza and Inhambane, should
build flood regulating infrastructure to control and manage the flow of flood water in the Limpopo
basin. Tis would not only require greater coordination with upstream nations, but also the building
of large flood attenuation infrastructure .
vi. ARA-Sul, in collaboration with INGC and the provincial government of Gaza, should investigate the
viability of a barrage to prevent and/or minimise storm surges, and other measures to reduce
saltwater intrusion.
vii. Gaza province should build more formal housing structures for the rural population to move them
from flood-risk to non-flood risk areas (based on existing floor risk zoning). To provide adequate
incentives to move, these houses should be electrified, have adequate drinking water supply and
sanitation facilities, and other essentials. This will also enable the implementation of household
water harvesting systems, which will minimise the use of water sourced from the river or wells. This
may require the sourcing and securing of additional funding. This is already being done, and this
programme should be scaled up and receive high priority. The fact that the government of
Mozambique is already trying to provide people with a second home and incentivizing people to
move or at least store valuable belongings and legal papers in a second home on higher ground
suggests the approach is economically viable, as was indicated to the authors of this paper during
field visits and in-person interviews with officials. Disaster Management officials interviewed
indicated that the project had potential to scale up and the government had plans to increase the
population size targeted.
viii. Disaster management agencies in Gaza and Inhambane provinces should improve the
implementation of early warning systems, and ensure that systems are accessible to the entire
population in the basin. This may require the review of current emergency/disaster management
structures and systems, and then the implementation of necessary improvements, including
engaging with transboundary flood warning systems. Existing early warning systems in the Limpopo
basin have proven helpful, so this strategy should be enhanced.
ix. During disaster events, it is essential that information on the related events is shared in a timely
manner. Implementing technical solutions such as sirens or radio notifications to warn people of
approaching flood waters, would ensure that information is shared. To supplement these existing
approaches, innovative ICT should be used such as SMS alerts, which have shown to be successful
in several areas for climate and health related disasters. Gaza and Inhambane provincial
departments of disaster management should invest in an applied research and pilot programme to
design and test SMS-based alert systems and identify glitches and necessary recalibrations of such
systems to be more locally applicable and effective (and to also reduce chances of misuse).
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x. INGC and the provincial departments should implement a digital information system to enable data
monitoring and information sharing at local, regional, national, and basin level in relation to
disaster response.
xi. Provincial departments of health and the national health directorate should invest in a digital
information system to similarly enable health related data monitoring and information sharing at
local, regional, and national levels in relation to health – particularly climate related health impacts.
This will, for example, improve disease surveillance and enable a proper comprehension of the
linkages between health and disasters. This will enable the design and implementation of effective
climate adaptation strategies in the health sector.
Institutional approaches
xii. The national government should update land-use and human settlement plans/strategies through
collaboration with various institutions (especially the two provinces of Gaza and Inhambane), and
should seamlessly incorporate climate change in land use planning, which is a low-regret option. In
addition, the monitoring of established land use plans/strategies should be promoted in light of
climate change, to assess successes and shortcomings, and enhance factors that have worked so as
to be better prepared for climate change. This should be an ongoing effort at all levels of
government.
xiii. INGC, as well as local universities, should continue research efforts that are focused on climate
related extreme events and disasters, as well as on the human health impacts of the same.
Research should also be scaled up at the local/urban level, to enable responsive disaster
preparedness in all parts of Gaza and Inhambane, and to inform disaster management plans in
these provinces. This ongoing research should be annually integrated into all such plans, as
opposed to a one-time effort.
xiv. INGC, working with Gaza and Inhambane provinces, should ensure the effective implementation of
disaster management plans that are already in place. Strengthening disaster management
approaches and institutions overall will automatically also build adaptive capacity to climate related
disasters.
xv. The national government should set up an institutional mechanism – such as a special committee
or task force – to enable cross-sectoral information and knowledge sharing. In addition, this will
catalyse the design and implementation of climate resilience interventions that can benefit
multiple sectors.
xvi. The national and provincial (Gaza and Inhambane) departments of health should continue to
conduct research and/or leverage the research conducted by international and regional institutions
on how to improve human health and nutritional status in the population, because a healthier and
more food secure population automatically has better adaptive capacity to respond to changes.
The national treasury could devote more resources to funding efforts to improve nutrition and food
security in the Limpopo basin.
xvii. INGC and provincial disaster management agencies should improve and expand community
involvement in disaster response efforts, such as the community based efforts already in place that
have started demonstrating positive impacts. These could receive more resources to be scaled up.
xviii. Provincial (Gaza and Inhambane) departments of health as well as disaster management should
collaborate to develop and implement more community awareness programs, which not only focus
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on disaster related impacts, but also on the health impacts associated with disasters. In addition,
education on health impacts of climate change specifically should also be conducted.
xix. Implement overall health focused programs, such as vaccination and family planning drives. A
healthy population is a more resilient population, whether to climate or other types of shocks.
These efforts are already underway but could receive a boost so that population health becomes a
priority.
C3.3 Recommended Resilience Strategies for ARA-Sul to consider
A great deal is already bring done in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique in terms of Disaster Risk Reduction,
Disaster Preparedness, and Disaster Management. Many of these initiatives have shown significant success,
as is evidenced by the lower levels of deaths and displacement in the 2013 floods, compared to earlier
floods.
Thus, there is no requirement to “reinvent the wheel” and suggest brand new approaches simply for the
sake of novelty. The primary recommendation for the human safety and health sector is as follows:
I. Strengthen resilience by increasing or expanding current approaches to disaster management
This will require additional financial and human resources, but as past experience in Gaza province
in particular has demonstrated, this will be money well spent.
These Disaster Management approaches include community-based disaster warning networks and
response protocols; the provision of a second home for people to save their valuable belongings in,
located in a non flood risk area in Gaza; increased early warning systems including the use of new
technologies; the introduction of ICT systems for disaster warning and response etc. These
strategies are, and would continue to be, the responsibility of INGC and provincial disaster
management authorities.
Disaster response and management should, of course, be coupled with disaster risk reduction. In this
context, certain physical interventions could be promising strategies.
II. For the western sub-region (Limpopo main stem), build flood control infrastructure such as a dam
with flood gates and flood control design elements. The most destructive floods are on the
Limpopo main stem. Flood control and regulation structures on this river could considerably
improve the response to flooding. ARA-Sul and INGC should work with Gaza province to implement
this. The Mapai dam could be one such option, if thoroughly investigated and found feasible.
III. For the coastal sub-region, investigate building a barrage or other physical barriers like dykes to
reduce damage from storm surges. This could help reduce the impacts of flooding and keep
seawater out of low-lying coastal lands. This intervention too would be the responsibility of ARA-Sul
and INGC, working in close coordination with the province of Gaza.
IV. To better understand the impact that climate change is having on human health in Gaza and
Inhambane, improve disease surveillance and monitoring of climate related health conditions.
This will help provide an evidence base and indicate trends, areas of occurrence etc. More
information in the hands of health care providers will allow better adaptation of the health sector
to climate change and related impacts. While the responsibility for implementation would lie with
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provincial departments of health, this could also be a strategy applied more widely at the national
level.
C4. Built Economic Infrastructure
C4.1 Vulnerability of the Built Economic Infrastructure Sector in the Limpopo Basin
The single biggest contributor to climate vulnerability of built economic infrastructure (including linear
infrastructure like roads and telecom cables but also power supply infrastructure) in the Limpopo basin
in Mozambique is extreme weather, specifically recurrent floods on the main stem of the Limpopo River.
Several studies have shown how floods in 2000, 2007, and most recently in 2013 wreaked havoc on roads,
causing millions of dollars’ worth of damage to road networks around the basin. The damage done to
transportation infrastructure such as roads has a compounding effect on climate vulnerability in the region,
since it reduces or negates entirely the mobility of affected populations, thereby reducing their adaptive
capacity. Moreover, it hampers commercial activity such as the carriage of goods, and lower levels of
economic activity in turn lead to lower incomes, further constraining adaptive capacity. In the same way,
reduced transportation facilities affects the movement of food, preventing access to necessary supplies for
populations in need, thereby having negative impacts on their adaptive capacity in the form of good health.
In a region that has limited road networks and inadequate connectivity as it is, the impacts of extreme
weather events such as floods exacerbates vulnerability. This is also true of flood impacts on Information
and Communications Technology (ICT) infrastructure, which created disruption in communities’ ability to
cope with external shocks, and the loss of which is detrimental to productive economic activity.
Sub-regional Perspective In the inland sub-region (Changane catchment), greater flooding is likely due to climate change,
as a result of increased heavy rainfall events. In particular, increased rainfall activity is anticipated.
In the western sub-region (Limpopo main stem), climate change projections indicate more variable rainfall, including more heavy rainfall events. This could contribute to more frequent and more intense floods.
In the coastal sub-region, rising sea levels and elevated coastal erosion are likely to result in more flooding from coastal inundation and from storm surges. Being a low-lying area near the mouth of the main stem of the Limpopo, this also makes the area vulnerable to flooding when water levels in the main stem overflow.
C4.2 Potential Adaptation Measures for Built Economic Infrastructure
Socioeconomic approaches
i. The provinces of Gaza and Inhambane should enhance their existing activities to enable
diversification of livelihoods and opportunities for value-addition and upskilling, as well as greater
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access to markets for agricultural products and value-added agricultural goods. This is likely to result
in more people living in higher-density areas such as towns or cities. With greater convergence of
populations in certain areas, it will become easier to provide them access to adequate, well
maintained and operated infrastructure. This would be the responsibility of provincial economic
development directorates or agencies, including those responsible for small business development.
Physical / technological approaches
ii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces, as well as the national government, should create regulatory
frameworks that ensure private developers (including international actors such as the Chinese, who
are very active in this area) will develop infrastructure that addresses current climate impacts,
minimises the impacts that are already prevalent, and/or incorporates the currently existing climate
regimes. An example of this is building underground power lines in areas that are regularly flooded.
Flood zone mapping could help prioritize areas where such infrastructure is most needed, or most at-
risk?
iii. National and provincial governments (Gaza and Inhambane) should regularly conduct engineering
reviews of existing infrastructure specifically to identify climate adaptation needs.
iv. National and provincial governments should collaborate with the insurance industry to promote
regular system and infrastructure maintenance, taking climate variability and change explicitly into
account.
v. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should update existing infrastructure to deal with anticipated climate
impacts, where feasible. An example of this would be raising the heights of dams and dikes,
depending on the impacts that are considered likely in the majority of climate change scenarios. This
is particularly applicable in Gaza province, where the bulk of existing infrastructure lies.
vi. INGC and provincial disaster management agencies should work in collaboration with builders,
developers, and contractors to develop an early warning system and/or monitoring framework that
ensures early detection of material climate risks that are likely to result in damage to the
infrastructure.
vii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should ensure that all future infrastructure development prioritizes
adaptable infrastructure that can deal with multiple climate impacts, and can also be easily updated
and changed in future depending on the anticipated climate. An example of this is building a dam
that stores water during droughts, and also regulates or diverts flood water during flood events. This
dam would have to be large in order to contribute to flood attenuation, but could be valuable for the
region.
viii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should develop back-up/alternate infrastructure to be utilised in
instances when climate related events impact existing infrastructure. This can include launching a
widespread programme for installing household/building solar electricity.
Institutional approaches
ix. National level and provincial level planning departments and public works departments should
develop a best-practice guide for effective management of existing infrastructure in changing
climates. This guide should be a cross-sectoral and inter-departmental guide that helps to integrate
climate aspects in the management process and all operational processes, and also provides guidance
on how to address climate related disasters. Regular updates (i.e. every 5 years) will ensure that the
guide is relevant.
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x. National and provincial planning departments and departments of public works should prepare
guidance on better design and siting of public infrastructure, taking into account current climate
variability and anticipated climate change.
xi. National planners and the national public works department should develop an infrastructure
planning/development framework that utilises a risk rating system to identify areas where
infrastructure development should be promoted and/or prohibited. This framework should also be
regularly updated to reflect continuous increase in available climate data.
xii. National planners, including ARA-Sul in the water resources planning and management field, should
develop an infrastructure planning/development regulatory framework that ensures that climate
related aspects are considered throughout the entire project planning and development process, and
not only in the late stages of the project cycle (as currently done through the EIA and ESIA process).
This will ensure that climate variability and change are explicitly and by law integrated into the
infrastructure planning and project / programme development initiation stage.
C4.3 Recommended Resilience Strategies
Given that floods are the most destructive climate related impact on built economic infrastructure
(including linear infrastructure and power supply), the primary approach to reducing vulnerability in this
sector is to reduce the physical impact of floods. This can occur through flood control and management
infrastructure.
Thus the central recommendation for this sector is as follows:
I. Prioritise land use planning as well as flood risk zoning that prevents the siting and construction
of important infrastructure in flood-prone areas, including when taking climate change into
consideration. This is challenging because much of the population in the Limpopo basin lives in
flood prone areas, and infrastructure such as roads are necessary to serve them, and to improve
their overall well-being and adaptive capacity. However, investment frameworks should take into
account climate change and avoid forseeable and preventable damage to infrastructure by building
it away from areas with the highest risk (this would also be an incentive to shift economic activity
and human settlements away from high risk areas).
In addition to better planning about the design and siting of infrastructure, two specific approaches in
different sub-regions could be as follows:
Invest in flood control and management infrastructure, to better regulate the flows during high water
levels and to divert flood waters away from critical infrastructure.
II. For the western sub-region (Limpopo main stem), build flood control infrastructure such as a dam
with flood gates and flood control design elements. The most destructive floods are on the
Limpopo main stem. Flood control and regulation structures on this river could considerably
improve the exposure of infrastructure in this region to floods.
III. For the coastal sub-region, build a barrage or other physical barriers like dykes to reduce
seawater intrusion and the impacts of sea level rise. This could help reduce the impacts of coastal
flooding and keep seawater out of low-lying coastal lands, reducing impacts of floods and salinity
on infrastructure.
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C5. Ecosystems and Conservation
C5.1 Vulnerability of the Ecosystems and Conservation Sector in the Limpopo
Basin
The vulnerability of ecosystems, biodiversity, and the conservation sector in the Limpopo basin arises
from direct and indirect impacts of climate change that affect ecosystem health. With temperature rise,
there are likely to be changes in flora and fauna of the region, including invasive species, range shifts or
expansions, and competition for habitat or food sources. Some species may be less capable of adapting
than others. The prospect of disruption in ecosystems is particularly challenging for conservation areas and
national parks, which have the potential to bring in large amounts of tourism revenue but, if climate change
is not adequately adapted to, could suffer from degradation and extreme events such as wildfires, also
losing tourism potential.
Sub-regional Perspective Ecosystem vulnerability is particularly of concern in the western (Limpopo main stem) sub-
region, as this is home to the transboundary conservation area).
Ecosystem changes could also affect marine biodiversity, leading to shocks to the local fisheries industry in the coastal sub-region. Sea level rise could affect ecosystems upstream.
Climate change impacts such as high evaporation rates could prove extremely damaging for wetlands and the network of surface ponds (“machongos”) in the inland region (i.e. the Changane sub-basin).
C5.2 Potential Adaptation Measures for Ecosystems and Conservation
Socio-economic approaches
i. National and provincial (Gaza and Inhambane) departments of tourism as well as environmental
and forestry should initiate a programme to consult with the local (rural) population to ascertain
what the indigenous knowledge is on conservation. Validation of this research will need to be
conducted with scientific research. This could be done in collaboration with local universities.
ii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should implement regular knowledge sharing with the local
population to educate them on sustainable fishing and hunting (i.e. focused particularly on
minimising over-exploitation of species, especially in light of anticipated climate change impacts).
iii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should promote sustainable fishing and hunting practices. Using
innovative fish farming practices on the Gaza coast, for example, could not only ensure human
livelihoods, but could potentially also be a business opportunity and allow for income
diversification.
iv. ARA-Sul and the two provinces, as well as environment departments, should launch collaborations
with private sector entities to implement local water stewardship efforts (i.e. public-private-
community partnerships) that are focused on promoting healthy ecosystems and catchment
management.
v. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should conduct research on the dependence of their respective
populations in the Limpopo basin on local ecosystems. This will provide a better sense of how to go
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about income diversification and will shed light on the economic value of local ecosystems,
providing an impetus to protect these from negative impacts of climate variability and change.
Physical / technological approaches
vi. The national and provincial departments of environment and forestry should develop digital
biodiversity and climate change information systems where up-to-date information and data can
be housed. This will also assist with effective conservation planning, as the strategies and
approaches planned will be based on relevant information. Similar approaches have proven
successful in South Africa through the efforts of CSIR.
vii. National and provincial departments of environment and forests should implement monitoring
systems that specifically track species and ecosystems responses to changing climate.
Institutional approaches
Tourism related
viii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should conduct research and a climate risk assessment for eco-
tourism sites along the basin. This will ensure a better understanding of changes to the
ecosystems and to the tourist sites that are vulnerable to climate impacts, and will therefore
enable the development of site-specific climate adaptation interventions.
ix. The department of tourism, at the national and provincial levels, should develop a tourism and
recreational areas plan/strategy through cross-sector collaboration. The plan/strategy should be
focused on further growing the eco-tourism sector (through natural systems) based on sustainable
mechanisms. However, in an effort to grow the eco-tourism sector and in promoting socio-
economic development, it is essential that biodiversity should simultaneously be conserved. In
addition, eco-tourism plans/strategies should incorporate envisaged changes in climate and the
resultant changes in ecosystems.
x. Gaza and Inhambane provinces, in collaboration with the national department of tourism, should
develop a digital portal that houses eco-tourism information, as well as the above listed
information related to ecosystems and biodiversity. Public accessibility to this information system
should be promoted.
xi. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should identify and develop natural buffers around their tourism
sites that are also ecologically important or fragile.
xii. At a national level, the environment department (through inter-departmental efforts) should
conduct research and promote the expansion of species conservation and seed storage.
xiii. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should expand the use of early warning systems that detect the
manifestation of climate related phenomena that have the potential of materially impacting the
eco-tourism sector should be developed.
xiv. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should conduct research on the dependence of local rural
populations on the eco-tourism sector. This should include a focus on how future changes in
climate will influence the dependence of the rural population on eco-tourism. In other words,
apart from employment opportunities, this effort should elucidate how tourism and ecosystems
conservation benefit the local population.
xv. Gaza and Inhambane provinces, in collaboration with the national departments of tourism and
environment and forestry, should conduct further research into developing recreational areas
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with climate resilient trees. This will promote the conservation of species as well as promote
species diversity.
Species / Biodiversity related
xvi. Gaza and Inhambane provinces should conduct detailed and in-depth local level research focused
on species diversity, ecosystem status and the identification of endangered species, specifically
with a climate change lens added on.
xvii. The national government should regularly update existing biodiversity and conservation strategies
to include climate adaptation. This should be conducted in consultation with different sectors, so
as to ensure that the synergies and inter-dependencies with difference sectors are incorporated.
In addition, the manner in which sustainable poverty reduction and development objectives can
be met through biodiversity and conservation should also be discussed. While these strategies
already exist and do integrate climate change, annual updates would better reflect emerging
climate science.
xviii. Gaza and Inhambane should further develop strategies to promote the protection of endangered
species in the Limpopo basin, especially taking into account climate change. This includes
expanding the current list of protected areas and national parks, to allow for expanded species
resilience.
xix. In the instance of wildfires, it is essential that Gaza’s and Inhambane’s disaster management
agencies should specifically address climate change risk in their wildfire management plans. This
will potentially reduce the damage to terrestrial ecosystems during wildfire events. In addition,
fire resistant and/or fire adaptive species should be promoted. As wildfires can also promote the
growth and abundance of certain species, a study on species diversity and adaptive capacity
should be conducted by each of the provinces; adaptive species should be promoted.
xx. Ecosystem connectivity should be promoted by provincial and national environment departments.
These critical connectivity systems should be designed to incorporate current and future climate
impacts. This will not only ensure that ecosystems are able to grow and expand, but that will
ensure that species are able to migrate when required, to cope with changing climate conditions
and habitats. Any new infrastructure should attempt to create as little disruption as possible.
xxi. Provincial forestry officials in Gaza and Inhambane should implement strict bush clearing, fishing
and hunting practices (i.e. implementing quotas), and should ensure compliance.
xxii. Gaza’s and Inhambane’s provincial environmental departments should implement an intensive
program to restore streams, rivers and wetlands to their natural state. This can be achieved
through the use of natural processes (such as vegetation) or scientific/technical approaches (such
as chemicals). A naturally robust water system will be more resilient to climate variability and
change.
xxiii. Provincial environmental departments in Gaza and Inhambane should implement an intensive
program to rehabilitate and revegetate river banks. This is beneficial both to terrestrial and
aquatic ecosystems. However, it is essential to utilize indigenous and climate resilient species that
do not compete with water users (by using large amounts of water). Exotic species that are
present should be removed (and any green waste material from such clearing can be used for
recycling purposes).
C5.3 Recommended Resilience Strategies
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Maintenance of natural ecosystem health is the single most effective adaptation strategy for this sector.
Healthy, diverse, and robust ecosystems have stronger inherent capacity to adapt to changes in the
environment.
Thus, with a view on water resources, the following recommendations form the primary resilience strategy:
I. Implement Environmental Flows in rivers, particularly the Limpopo (and its tributaries): While
Mozambique has eflow requirements in existing policies, it is not clear that these are being
adequately or effectively implemented. Maintaining eflows will contribute to a healthy aquatic
ecosystem in the Limpopo basin, which will automatically make it a more resilient one. An allied
element is to promote riparian zones adequately in both Gaza and Inhambane.
II. Preserve ecosystem functioning: Prioritise the preservation and maintenance of healthy
landscapes to prevent forest cover loss, land degradation, and denudation. Protect mangroves in
coastal zones. Communities should be enabled to reduce the use of fuelwood, to ensure vegetation
cover remains robust and keeps overall ecosystems healthy. Several of the actions enumerated
above could be consolidated into an ecosystem-based approach to climate change adaptation.
Both of these would be the responsibility of the national department of environment and forestry, but with
the implementation taking place at the provincial level by officials in Gaza and Inhambane.
C6. Conclusion This appendix provides numerous adaptation and resilience options that can be used and further
investigated in the Limpopo Basin, Mozambique. However, the current socio-economic status of the
country means that all the strategies cannot be implemented simultaneously. It is for this reason that
Chapter 4 highlights strategies that should be prioritized, especially due to the cross-cutting nature of
benefits across multiple sectors.
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APPENDIX D: Vulnerability Assessment
5. Vulnerability Assessment This appendix provides detailed vulnerability assessments for the following major economic sectors in the
Limpopo Basin. As major users of water, these sectors are therefore most likely to be impacted by changes
in water resources resulting from climate change:
5.1. Agriculture
This section provides an overview of the vulnerability of the agricultural sector in the Lower Limpopo Basin.
The assessment is conducted through a sub-regional lens, as the hydro-climatic processes are different in
each of the three sub-regions. This assessment focuses on not only the current vulnerability to climate
variability, but also looks at how future changes in water resources resulting from climate change are likely
to influence the sector. The assessment applies the approach presented in Chapter 2 for each of the
vulnerability components, the characteristics that were considered for rating the indicators have been
summarised.
In the inland region, the following can be observed for the agricultural sector (based on the literature and
data review conducted):
Exposure: The region currently experiences the highest average temperature in the basin, and very
low MAP (particularly in the northern regions). However, certain areas in the basin receive high
amounts of rain during the summer season, which is primarily caused by cyclonic activity. In the
future, the region will likely experience an increase in temperature as well as an increase in cyclonic
activity (with intense rainfall events). Inter-seasonal variability is likely to increase, resulting in
greater extremities of dry and wet seasons. In addition, this is an arid region, with highly seasonal
water flow, that relies mainly on groundwater. However, the quality of groundwater (due to
geological processes) is a concern. The region experiences frequent droughts, but also experiences
floods during the wet season due to cyclonic activity. Climate change is expected to result in an
increase in extreme events (i.e. floods and droughts). Therefore, the current and future exposure
of the sector is high.
Sensitivity: The rural population is largely dependent on subsistence farming, and is therefore
highly sensitive to climate processes, flood, droughts and changes in water resource availability.
Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is high.
Adaptive Capacity: The region is very rural with the poor population having no formal income. In
addition, there are not any large scale irrigation projects. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the
sector is poor.
Water Supply and
Sanitation
Domestic drinking water
supply
Industrial / commercial
water supply
Water infrastructure
Human Safety and Health
Disasters
Human settlements
Health
Economic Infrastructure
ICT (information &
communications
technology)
Roads & transportation
Electricity production,
supply & access
Conservation and
Ecosystems
Biodiversity and natural
capital (ecosystems)
Ecosystem function/flows
Species conservation
Tourism
Agriculture
Subsistence agriculture
and food security
Commercial agriculture
(incl. irrigation)
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Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors High High High Poor High High High
Water Availability High High High Poor High High High
Flood Events High High High Poor High High High
Drought Periods High High High Poor High High High
In the western region, the following can be observed for the agricultural sector (based on the literature and
data review conducted):
Exposure: The region currently experiences the lowest average temperature and low MAP. As a
result of climate change this region is expected to experience an increase in temperature. In
addition, an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall events is projected; high rainfall in upstream
basins will also impact Mozambique. This will likely result in an increase in the risk of flooding.
Inter-seasonal variability is expected to increase, resulting in greater variances in dry and wet
seasons. In addition, this region currently experiences seasonal variations in water availability,
frequently resulting in droughts during the dry season and flood during the wet season. In addition,
although the region has moderate to high groundwater productivity, the extraction for irrigation
purposes creates quality concerns. Climate change will likely result in an increase in extreme events
(i.e. floods and droughts). In addition, upstream basin activities will influence the availability and
quality of water resources. Therefore, the current exposure of the sector is medium for all
indicators except flooding and droughts, which are high. In the future, exposure is expected to be
high for all indicators except Climatic Factors.
Sensitivity: The rural population is largely dependent on subsistence farming and agriculture. There
is large potential for crop diversification (to tap into opportunities offered by climate change) that
has been explored but not to a large degree. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is medium.
Adaptive Capacity: Although there have been many measure that have been implemented in the
region, these strategies do not reach the entire population in rural areas. Floods however in the
past resulted in large losses in agricultural production throughout the region. However, the
irrigation schemes help minimise the impacts of droughts, although they are not accessible to all
citizens. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is average for all indicators expect for
floods, which is poor.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Medium Medium Medium Average Medium Medium Medium
Water Availability Medium Medium Medium Average Medium High High
Flood Events High Medium High Poor High High High
Drought Periods High Medium High Average High High High
In the coastal region, the following can be observed for the agricultural sector (based on the literature and
data review conducted):
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Exposure: The region currently experiences high average temperature and the highest average
MAP. Climate change projections for the region include an increase in temperature, although
slightly smaller than the other regions, as well as an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall
events and cyclonic activity. In addition, this region suffers from salt water intrusion, which
impacts the usability of surface water. In terms of groundwater, the region has moderate to high
yield, and the high productivity can be used for withdrawals of regional importance. In addition, the
region has a high water demand as it is highly populated. The region currently experiences flooding
due to upstream flooding of the Changane River and the main stem of the Limpopo River. All these
factors are likely to increase as a result of climate change, including an increase in salt water
intrusion and coastal storm surges, linked to sea level rise. Therefore, the current exposure on the
sector is medium for all indicators except floods, which is high. In future, the exposure will be
medium for Climatic Factors and droughts, while exposure to changes in water availability and
floods will be high.
Sensitivity: Due to the types of agriculture practiced on the coast, the region is not very sensitive to
climate. However, salt water intrusion and floods will result in increases the impacts on the sector.
Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is medium for all indicators except Climatic Factors, which
is low.
Adaptive Capacity: Apart from mangroves, the rural communities have little adaptive capacity for
current climate variability and for climate change. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is
poor.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimated Future Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Medium Low Low Poor Low Medium Low
Water Availability Medium Medium Medium Poor Medium High High
Flood Events High Medium High Poor High High High
Drought Periods Medium Medium Medium Poor Medium Medium Medium
Summary
The agriculture sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo basin in Mozambique is primarily a function of water
availability, as well as the effects of climatic extremes - chiefly droughts and floods. For all three sub-
regions, current vulnerability of the agricultural sector in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well as how
vulnerability is estimated to change in the future, can be summarised as follows:
Inland Region Western Region Coastal Region
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors High High Medium Medium Low Low
Water Availability High High Medium High Medium High
Flood Events High High High High High High
Drought Periods High High High High Medium Medium
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5.2. Human Safety and Health This section provides an overview of the vulnerability of the human safety and health sector in the
Mozambican Limpopo Basin. The assessment is conducted through a sub-regional lens, as the hydro-
climatic processes are different in each of the three sub-regions. This assessment focuses on not only the
current vulnerability to climate variability, but also looks at how future changes in water resources resulting
from climate change are likely to influence the sector. The assessment applies the approach presented in
Chapter 2 for each of the vulnerability components, the characteristics that were considered for rating the
indicators have been summarised.
In the inland region, the following can be observed for the human safety sector (based on the literature
and data review conducted):
Exposure: The region currently experiences the highest average temperature in the basin, and very
low MAP (particularly in the northern regions). However, certain areas in the basin receive high
amounts of rain during the summer season, which is primarily caused by cyclonic activity. In the
future, the region will likely experience an increase in temperature as well as an increase in cyclonic
activity (with intense rainfall events). Inter-seasonal variability is likely to increase, resulting in
greater extremities of dry and wet seasons. In addition, this is an arid region, with highly seasonal
water flow, that relies mainly on groundwater. However, the quality of groundwater (due to
geological processes) is a concern. The region experiences frequent droughts, but also experiences
floods during the wet season due to cyclonic activity. Climate change is expected to result in an
increase in extreme events (i.e. floods and droughts). Therefore, the current and future exposure
of the sector is high.
Sensitivity: The population is largely rural with informal dwellings located in high risk areas. In
addition, people have limited access to health services. They are therefore highly sensitive to
floods, droughts and changes in water resource availability. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector
is high.
Adaptive Capacity: The region is very rural and poor, with no formal income to adapt to the
impacts of climate change. In addition, the flood management strategies that have been initiated
have not reached the rural population in the Changane Catchment. Therefore, the adaptive
capacity of the sector is poor.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this Inland region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors High High High Poor High High High
Water Availability High High High Poor High High High
Flood Events High High High Poor High High High
Drought Periods High High High Poor High High High
In the western region, the following can be observed for the human safety sector (based on the literature
and data review conducted):
Exposure: The region currently experiences the lowest average temperature and low MAP. As a
result of climate change this region is expected to experience an increase in temperature. In
addition, an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall events is projected; high rainfall in upstream
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basins will also impact Mozambique. This will likely result in an increase in the risk of flooding.
Inter-seasonal variability is expected to increase, resulting in greater variances in dry and wet
seasons. In addition, this region currently experiences seasonal variations in water availability,
frequently resulting in droughts during the dry season and flood during the wet season. In addition,
although the region has moderate to high groundwater productivity, the extraction for irrigation
purposes creates quality concerns. Climate change will likely result in an increase in extreme events
(i.e. floods and droughts). In addition, upstream basin activities will influence the availability and
quality of water resources. Therefore, the current exposure of the sector is medium for all
indicators except flooding and droughts, which are high. In the future, the exposure will be high
for all indicators except Climatic Factors.
Sensitivity: Although the region has a few urban areas, there is high poverty and the population is
largely rural. Human health is also of concern, due to malnutrition and a lack of sufficient health
facilities. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is high for all indicators except Climatic Factors,
which is medium.
Adaptive Capacity: There are numerous strategies that have been implemented successfully, such
as early warning systems and relocation during floods. However, these strategies are not accessible
to everyone. In addition, rural poverty is a concern, thus influencing the ability to adapt to health
incidences. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is average.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Medium Medium Medium Average Medium Medium Medium
Water Availability Medium High High Average High High High
Flood Events High High High Average High High High
Drought Periods High High High Average High High High
In the coastal region, the following can be observed for the human safety sector (based on the literature
and data review conducted):
Exposure: The region currently experiences high average temperature and the highest average
MAP. Climate change projections for the region include an increase in temperature, although
slightly smaller than the other regions, as well as an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall
events and cyclonic activity. In addition, this region suffers from salt water intrusion, which
impacts the usability of surface water. In terms of groundwater, the region has moderate to high
yield, and the high productivity can be used for withdrawals of regional importance. In addition, the
region has a high water demand as it is highly populated. The region currently experiences flooding
due to upstream flooding of the Changane River and the main stem of the Limpopo River. All these
factors are likely to increase as a result of climate change, including an increase in salt water
intrusion and coastal storm surges, linked to sea level rise. Therefore, the current exposure on the
sector is medium for all indicators except floods, which is high. In the future, the exposure will
likely be medium for Climatic Factors and droughts, while exposure to changes in water
resources and floods will be high.
Sensitivity: Although the region has a few urban areas, there is high poverty and the population is
largely rural. There area is also located at a low altitude and is exposed to sea level rise. Therefore,
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the sensitivity of the sector is high to all indicators except Climatic Factors, which is low, and
drought periods, which is medium.
Adaptive Capacity: There are numerous strategies that have been implemented successfully, such
as relocation during floods. However, these strategies are not accessible to everyone, and people
still reside in high risk areas. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is average.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future
Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Medium Low Low Average Low Medium Low
Water Availability Medium High High Average High High Medium
Flood Events High High High Average High High High
Drought Periods Medium Medium Medium Average Medium Medium High
Summary
The principal driver of climate vulnerability in the human safety and health sector is the occurrence of
climate related disasters, primarily floods. For all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the human
safety and health sector in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to
change in the future, can be summarised as follows:
Inland Region Western Region Coastal Region
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors High High Medium Medium Low Low
Water Availability High High High High High Medium
Flood Events High High High High High High
Drought Periods High High High High Medium High
5.3. Water Supply and Sanitation This section provides an overview of the vulnerability of the water supply and sanitation sector in the
Mozambican Limpopo Basin. The assessment is conducted through a sub-regional lens, as the hydro-
climatic processes are different in each of the three sub-regions. This assessment focuses on not only the
current vulnerability to climate variability, but also looks at how future changes in water resources resulting
from climate change are likely to influence the sector. The assessment applies the approach presented in
Chapter 2 for each of the vulnerability components, the characteristics that were considered for rating the
indicators have been summarised.
In the inland region, the following can be observed for the water supply and sanitation sector (based on
the literature and data review conducted):
Exposure: The region currently experiences the highest average temperature in the basin, and very
low MAP (particularly in the northern regions). However, certain areas in the basin receive high
amounts of rain during the summer season, which is primarily caused by cyclonic activity. In the
future, the region will likely experience an increase in temperature as well as an increase in cyclonic
activity (with intense rainfall events). Inter-seasonal variability is likely to increase, resulting in
greater extremities of dry and wet seasons. In addition, this is an arid region, with highly seasonal
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water flow, that relies mainly on groundwater. However, the quality of groundwater (due to
geological processes) is a concern. The region experiences frequent droughts, but also experiences
floods during the wet season due to cyclonic activity. Climate change is expected to result in an
increase in extreme events (i.e. floods and droughts). Therefore, the current and future exposure
of the sector is high.
Sensitivity: Water supply and sanitation provision is relatively low throughout the basin, and the
rural population relies mostly on boreholes for water. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is
high for water resources and flooding, medium for droughts, and low for Climatic Factors.
Adaptive Capacity: The population in this area is very poor, and therefore does not have adequate
resources to provide themselves with adequate water and sanitation services. Therefore, the
adaptive capacity of the sector is poor for all indicators except climate factors. As climate factors
do not directly influence this sector, the adaptive capacity for this indicator is not a priority.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future
Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors High Low Medium Good Low High Medium
Water Availability High High High Poor High High High
Flood Events High High High Poor High High High
Drought Periods High Medium High Poor High High High
In the western region, the following can be observed for the water supply and sanitation sector (based on
the literature and data overview conducted above):
Exposure: The region currently experiences the lowest average temperature and low MAP. As a
result of climate change this region is expected to experience an increase in temperature. In
addition, an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall events is projected; high rainfall in upstream
basins will also impact Mozambique. This will likely result in an increase in the risk of flooding.
Inter-seasonal variability is expected to increase, resulting in greater variances in dry and wet
seasons. In addition, this region currently experiences seasonal variations in water availability,
frequently resulting in droughts during the dry season and flood during the wet season. In addition,
although the region has moderate to high groundwater productivity, the extraction for irrigation
purposes creates quality concerns. Climate change will likely result in an increase in extreme events
(i.e. floods and droughts). In addition, upstream basin activities will influence the availability and
quality of water resources. Therefore, the current exposure on the sector is medium for all
indicators except flooding and droughts, which are high. In future, the exposure will be high for
all indicators except climatic factors.
Sensitivity: The urban population has access to water and sanitation services. However, the
population is largely rural and water supply and sanitation services provision is relatively low. The
rural population relies mostly on groundwater. In addition, the water supply infrastructure that is
available is aging, making it more vulnerable to flooding. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is
high for water resources and flooding, medium for droughts, and low for climate.
Adaptive Capacity: Alternative water supply and adequate sanitation provision for the rural
population is very low, although new infrastructure projects are currently under way, which will
improve adaptive capacity. In addition, the irrigation projects and dams that are in this region are
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PEGASYS Final Report 63
able to ensure water supply. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is poor for all
indicators except water resources, which is average, and climate factors which is good. As climate
factors do not directly influence this sector, the adaptive capacity for this indicator is not a
priority.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future
Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Medium Low Low Good Low Medium Low
Water Availability Medium High High Average High High High
Flood Events High High High Poor High High High
Drought Periods High Medium High Poor High High High
In the coastal region, the following can be observed for the water supply and sanitation sector (based on
the literature and data overview conducted above):
Exposure: The region currently experiences high average temperature and the highest average
MAP. Climate change projections for the region include an increase in temperature, although
slightly smaller than the other regions, as well as an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall
events and cyclonic activity. In addition, this region suffers from salt water intrusion, which
impacts the usability of surface water. In terms of groundwater, the region has moderate to high
yield, and the high productivity can be used for withdrawals of regional importance. In addition, the
region has a high water demand as it is highly populated. The region currently experiences flooding
due to upstream flooding of the Changane River and the main stem of the Limpopo River. All these
factors are likely to increase as a result of climate change, including an increase in salt water
intrusion and coastal storm surges, linked to sea level rise. Therefore, the current exposure on the
sector is medium for all indicators except flooding, which is high. In future, the exposure will
likely be medium for Climatic Factors and drought periods, while exposure to changes in water
availability and floods will be high.
Sensitivity: The urban population has access to water and sanitation services. However, the
population is largely rural and water supply and sanitation services provision is relatively low. In
addition, the water supply infrastructure that is available is aging, making it more vulnerable to
flooding. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is high for water availability and flooding,
medium for droughts, and low for Climatic Factors.
Adaptive Capacity: The population is largely rural, and does not have the resources required to
adapt to water supply absences of water and sanitation services. Alternative water supply and
adequate sanitation for the rural population is very low, although new infrastructure projects are
currently under way, which will improve the adaptive capacity. For the urban population, water is
available, which is obtained from upstream water infrastructure. Therefore, the adaptive capacity
of the sector is poor for all indicators except water resources, which is average, and climate
factors which is good. As climate factors do not directly influence this sector, the adaptive
capacity for this indicator is not a priority.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
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Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future
Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Medium Low Low Good Low Medium Low
Water Availability Medium High High Average High High High
Flood Events High High High Poor High High High
Drought Periods Medium Medium Medium Poor Medium Medium Medium
Summary
The water supply and sanitation sector’s vulnerability in the Limpopo Basin in Mozambique is primarily due
to insufficient and inconsistent water availability. For all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the
water supply and sanitation sector in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is
estimated to change in the future, can be summarised as follows:
Inland Region Western Region Coastal Region
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Low Medium Low Low Low Low
Water Availability High High High High High High
Flood Events High High High High High High
Drought Periods High High High High Medium Medium
5.4. Economic Infrastructure This section provides an overview of the vulnerability of the Economic Infrastructure sector in the Lower
Limpopo Basin. The assessment is conducted through a sub-regional lens, as the hydro-climatic processes
are different in each of the three sub-regions. This assessment focuses on not only the current vulnerability
to climate variability, but also looks at how future changes in water resources resulting from climate
change are likely to influence the sector. The assessment applies the approach presented in Chapter 2 for
each of the vulnerability components, the characteristics that were considered for rating the indicators
have been summarised.
In the inland region, the following can be observed for the Economic Infrastructure sector (based on the
literature and data review conducted):
Exposure: The region currently experiences the highest average temperature in the basin, and very
low MAP (particularly in the northern regions). However, certain areas in the basin receive high
amounts of rain during the summer season, which is primarily caused by cyclonic activity. In the
future, the region will likely experience an increase in temperature as well as an increase in cyclonic
activity (with intense rainfall events). Inter-seasonal variability is likely to increase, resulting in
greater extremities of dry and wet seasons. In addition, this is an arid region, with highly seasonal
water flow, that relies mainly on groundwater. However, the quality of groundwater (due to
geological processes) is a concern. The region experiences frequent droughts, but also experiences
floods during the wet season due to cyclonic activity. Climate change is expected to result in an
increase in extreme events (i.e. floods and droughts). Therefore, the current and future exposure
on the sector is high.
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Sensitivity: There is relatively little Economic Infrastructure in this region. The roads that do exist
are rural, and are sensitive to flooding. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is high for flood
events, and low for all other indicators.
Adaptive Capacity: There are only rural roads in this region. There is no evidence of whether these
roads have been rehabilitated or whether tarred roads will be installed. Therefore, the adaptive
capacity of the sector is average for flood events. As all other indicators do not directly influence
this sector, the adaptive capacity for the indicators is not a priority.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future
Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors High Low Medium Good Low High Medium
Water Availability High Low Medium Good Low High Medium
Flood Events High High High Average High High High
Drought Periods High Low Medium Good Low High Medium
In the western region, the following can be observed for the Economic Infrastructure sector (based on the
literature and data review conducted):
Exposure: The region currently experiences the lowest average temperature and low MAP. As a
result of climate change this region is expected to experience an increase in temperature. In
addition, an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall events is projected; high rainfall in upstream
basins will also impact Mozambique. This will likely result in an increase in the risk of flooding.
Inter-seasonal variability is expected to increase, resulting in greater variances in dry and wet
seasons. In addition, this region currently experiences seasonal variations in water availability,
frequently resulting in droughts during the dry season and flood during the wet season. In addition,
although the region has moderate to high groundwater productivity, the extraction for irrigation
purposes creates quality concerns. Climate change will likely result in an increase in extreme events
(i.e. floods and droughts). In addition, upstream basin activities will influence the availability and
quality of water resources. Therefore, the current exposure on the sector is medium for all
indicators except flood events, which is high. In future, the exposure will be high for all indicators
except Climatic Factors.
Sensitivity: There is relatively little Economic Infrastructure in this region, except for in the urban
areas which have various Economic Infrastructure (such as electricity and ICT), and the Massingir
dam. The existing infrastructure is sensitive to flooding. Hydro-electricity is also sensitive to
changes in water resources. Therefore, the sensitivity of the sector is high for flood events,
medium for changes in water availability, and low for all other indicators.
Adaptive Capacity: Existing infrastructure in the region is relatively old, which makes the adaptive
capacity poor. Although there are new infrastructure projects are currently under way, which will
improve the adaptive capacity, the projects are not widespread. The adaptive capacity of the
energy sector is poor because of the negative impacts a lack of water availability has on hydro-
power generation. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is average for flood events and
poor for changes in water availability (since water is required for energy production). As all other
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indicators do not directly influence this sector, the adaptive capacity for the indicators is not a
priority.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future
Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Medium Low Low Good Low Medium Low
Water Availability Medium Medium Medium Poor Medium High High
Flood Events High High High Average High High High
Drought Periods High Low Medium Good Low High Medium
In the coastal region, the following can be observed for the Economic Infrastructure sector (based on the
literature and data review conducted):
Exposure: The region currently experiences high average temperature and the highest average
MAP. Climate change projections for the region include an increase in temperature, although
slightly smaller than the other regions, as well as an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall
events and cyclonic activity. In addition, this region suffers from salt water intrusion, which
impacts the usability of surface water. In terms of groundwater, the region has moderate to high
yield, and the high productivity can be used for withdrawals of regional importance. In addition, the
region has a high water demand as it is highly populated. The region currently experiences flooding
due to upstream flooding of the Changane River and the main stem of the Limpopo River. All these
factors are likely to increase as a result of climate change, including an increase in salt water
intrusion and coastal storm surges, linked to sea level rise. Therefore, the current exposure of the
sector is medium for all indicators except flood events, which is high. In future, the exposure will
be medium for Climatic Factors and drought periods, while exposure to changes in water
availability and flood events will be high.
Sensitivity: Besides a few key roadways, there is relatively little Economic Infrastructure in this
region, except for in the urban areas which have various Economic Infrastructure (such as
electricity and ICT). The existing infrastructure is sensitive to flooding. Therefore, the sensitivity of
the sector is high for flood events and low for all other indicators.
Adaptive Capacity: There existing infrastructure is relatively old. However, there are new
infrastructure projects are currently under way, which will improve the adaptive capacity. The
projects, however, are not widespread. Therefore, the adaptive capacity of the sector is average
for flood events. As all other indicators do not directly influence this sector, the adaptive capacity
for the indicators is not a priority.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future
Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Medium Low Low Good Low Medium Low
Water Availability Medium Low Low Good Low High Medium
Flood Events High High High Average High High High
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Drought Periods Medium Low Low Good Low Medium Low
Summary
The single biggest contributor to climate vulnerability of economic infrastructure in the Limpopo basin in
Mozambique is extreme weather, specifically recurrent floods on the main stem of the Limpopo River. For
all three sub-regions, current vulnerability of the economic infrastructure sector in the Mozambican
Limpopo Basin, as well as how vulnerability is estimated to change in the future, can be summarised as
follows:
Inland Region Western Region Coastal Region
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Factors Low Medium Low Low Low Low
Water Availability Low Medium Medium High Low Medium
Flood Events High High High High High High
Drought Periods Low Medium Low Medium Low Low
5.5. Conservation and Ecosystems This section provides an overview of the vulnerability of the conservation and ecosystems sector in the
Lower Limpopo Basin. The assessment is conducted through a sub-regional lens, as the hydro-climatic
processes are different in each of the three sub-regions. This assessment focuses on not only the current
vulnerability to climate variability, but also looks at how future changes in water resources resulting from
climate change are likely to influence the sector. The assessment applies the approach presented in
Chapter 2 for each of the vulnerability components, the characteristics that were considered for rating the
indicators have been summarised.
In the inland region, the following can be observed for the conservation and ecosystems sector (based on
the literature and data overview conducted above):
Exposure: The region currently experiences the highest average temperature in the basin, and very
low MAP (particularly in the northern regions). However, certain areas in the basin receive high
amounts of rain during the summer season, which is primarily caused by cyclonic activity. In the
future, the region will likely experience an increase in temperature as well as an increase in cyclonic
activity (with intense rainfall events). Inter-seasonal variability is likely to increase, resulting in
greater extremities of dry and wet seasons. In addition, this is an arid region, with highly seasonal
water flow, that relies mainly on groundwater. However, the quality of groundwater (due to
geological processes) is a concern. The region experiences frequent droughts, but also experiences
floods during the wet season due to cyclonic activity. Climate change is expected to result in an
increase in extreme events (i.e. floods and droughts). Therefore, the current and future exposure
on the sector is high.
Sensitivity: The Banhine the Zinave National Parks, which are an important conservation and
tourist attraction, are located in this region. The park, as well as the aquatic ecosystems, also
support the livelihood of communities in the region. Ecosystems are sensitive to all changes in
climate as this influence the preferred habitat for species. Therefore, as the sensitivity of the
sector is high for all indicators.
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PEGASYS Final Report 68
Adaptive Capacity: Numerous conservation strategies have been implemented. However, the over-
exploitation of species (because they serve as a source of livelihood) is a major concern. Therefore,
the adaptive capacity of the sector is poor for all indicators.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future
Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climatic Induces High High High Poor High High High
Water Availability High High High Poor High High High
Flood Events High High High Poor High High High
Drought Periods High High High Poor High High High
In the western region, the following can be observed for the conservation and ecosystems sector (based on
the literature and data overview conducted above):
Exposure: The region currently experiences the lowest average temperature and low MAP. As a
result of climate change this region is expected to experience an increase in temperature. In
addition, an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall events is projected; high rainfall in upstream
basins will also impact Mozambique. This will likely result in an increase in the risk of flooding.
Inter-seasonal variability is expected to increase, resulting in greater variances in dry and wet
seasons. In addition, this region currently experiences seasonal variations in water availability,
frequently resulting in droughts during the dry season and flood during the wet season. In addition,
although the region has moderate to high groundwater productivity, the extraction for irrigation
purposes creates quality concerns. Climate change will likely result in an increase in extreme events
(i.e. floods and droughts). In addition, upstream basin activities will influence the availability and
quality of water resources. Therefore, the current exposure on the sector is medium for all
indicators except flood events and drought periods, which are high. In the future, exposure will
be high for all indicators except Climatic Factors.
Sensitivity: The Limpopo National Park, which is an important conservation and tourist attraction,
is located in this region. The park, as well as the aquatic ecosystems, also support the livelihood of
communities in the region. Ecosystems are sensitive to all changes in climate as this influence the
preferred habitat for species. Therefore, as the sensitivity of the sector is high for all indicators.
Adaptive Capacity: Numerous conservation strategies have been implanted. However, the over-
exploitation of species is a major concern as they serve as livelihood. Therefore, the adaptive
capacity of the sector is poor for all indicators.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future
Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climate High High High Poor High Medium High
Water Resources High High High Poor High High High
Floods High High High Poor High High High
Droughts High High High Poor High Medium High
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PEGASYS Final Report 69
In the coastal region, the following can be observed for the conservation and ecosystems sector (based on
the literature and data overview conducted above):
Exposure: The region currently experiences high average temperature and the highest average
MAP. Climate change projections for the region include an increase in temperature, although
slightly smaller than the other regions, as well as an increase in rainfall intensity during rainfall
events and cyclonic activity. In addition, this region suffers from salt water intrusion, which
impacts the usability of surface water. In terms of groundwater, the region has moderate to high
yield, and the high productivity can be used for withdrawals of regional importance. In addition, the
region has a high water demand as it is highly populated. The region currently experiences flooding
due to upstream flooding of the Changane River and the main stem of the Limpopo River. All these
factors are likely to increase as a result of climate change, including an increase in salt water
intrusion and coastal storm surges, linked to sea level rise. Therefore, the current exposure on the
sector is medium for all indicators except flooding, which is high. In future, the exposure will be
medium for climate and droughts, while water resources and floods will be high.
Sensitivity: There are no national parks located in this region. However, the river and coastal areas
serve as important aquatic ecosystems and tourist attractions, and also support the livelihood of
communities in the region. Ecosystems are sensitive to all changes in climate as this influence the
preferred habitat for species. Therefore, as the sensitivity of the sector is high to all indicators
except climate, which is medium.
Adaptive Capacity: Numerous conservation strategies have been implanted. However, the over-
exploitation of species is a major concern as they serve as livelihood. Therefore, the adaptive
capacity of the sector is poor for all indicators.
Therefore, by applying the methodology provided in Chapter 2, the overall vulnerability of the
sector in this region is illustrated in the table below.
Assessment of Current Vulnerability Estimate of Future Vulnerability
Current Exposure
Current Sensitivity
Current Risk
Current Ad Capacity
Current Vulnerability
Future Exposure
Future Vulnerability
Climate Medium Medium Medium Poor Medium Medium Medium
Water Resources Medium High High Poor High High High
Floods High High High Poor High High High
Droughts Medium High High Poor High Medium High
Summary
The vulnerability of ecosystems, biodiversity, and the conservation sector in the Limpopo basin arises from
direct and indirect impacts of climate change that affect ecosystem health. For all three sub-regions,
current vulnerability of the conservation and ecosystems sector in the Mozambican Limpopo Basin, as well
as how vulnerability is estimated to change in the future, can be summarised as follows:
Inland Region Western Region Coastal Region
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Current Vulnerability
Future Vulnerability
Climate High High High High Medium Medium
Water Resources High High High High High High
Floods High High High High High High
Droughts High High High High High High