Climate Ready:O SOntario’s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

Ministry of the EnvironmentMarch 8, 2012,

What is Adaptation?at s daptat o

• Adapting to climate change will require a fundamental shift in how governments develop policy and key sectors of our economy from tourism to go e e ts de e op po cy a d ey secto s o ou eco o y o tou s toinfrastructure operate, including:

• Coping with increased risk - taking measures to reduce the negative effects of climate change

• Taking advantage of the positive effects – opportunities

• This will require a longer-term view, ensuring future climate impacts (not just historical data) are considered/mainstreamed in decision-making.

• Examples of Adaptation :• Designing roads, bridges and buildings to better withstand greater storm activity

(e.g., ensuring culverts can withstand increased flow)• Replanting different tree species – to deal with warmer climates and increased pest p g p p

activity (e.g., pine beetle, spruce bud worm) • Changing agricultural patterns (planting different crops, taking advantage of longer

growing seasons)

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Ontario’s Changing ClimateO ta o s C a g g C ate

Increase of 1.4°C in average Days Over 30°C

▲ Toronto energy cooling demand ld i 7% b 2050

gtemperatures in Ontario since 1948 25

Days Over 30 C1960-19902020-2040

could increase 7% by 2050▲ Heat and ozone deaths could

increase mortality risk costs in Canada up $2.6 B/y by 2050

▲ Cost of staff days lost from heat15

20

ays

▲ Cost of staff days lost from heat estimated to increase by 80% by 2050 in U.K.

5

10# D

a

0Toronto London

3Sources: Environment Canada, NRTEE Climate Prosperity Report, UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

Ontario’s Climate – Economic ImpactsO ta o s C ate co o c pacts

Small changes mean big impacts:

G t L k l l ld f ll 1 b 2050

• Cost of extreme weather could increase by as much as 0.5 to 1%

• Great Lakes levels could fall 1m by 2050 – 100-270 tonnes per ship would be lost

• Ice roads for northern mining transport decreasing• Potholes created by constant freeze-thaw cycle

increase by as much as 0.5 to 1% world GDP by mid-century (Stern, 2006 and Garnaut, 2008).

• A new National Round Table ony y• A new National Round Table on Environment & Economy study suggests impacts of climate change to Ontario between $7.4-15.9B/year by 2050by 2050.

Ontario’s Climate – Extreme Events

Catastrophic Events in Canada

O ta o s C ate t e e e ts

160

200

120

#

40

80

01970 1980 1990 2000 2010

5Source: Insurance Bureau of Canada. Catastrophic Event = losses > $25M

1998 Ice Storm

Severe Winter Storm in Eastern Ontario, Québec and the Maritime Provinces in 1998 – resulted in $179M in damage costs to Ontario ($137 4M reimbursed by

998 ce Sto

1998 resulted in $179M in damage costs to Ontario ($137.4M reimbursed by Government of Canada)

•Ice loading damaged and brought down power lines telephone cables transmission towers andlines, telephone cables, transmission towers and utility poles

•Over 1,200,000 people in Eastern Ontario , , p pexperienced loss of electricity for periods of a few hours to almost three weeks

•700,000 insurance claims were filed for storm-related damages in Ontario and Québec - total payouts $1.5 Billion

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Sources: Ministry of Municipal Affairs & Housing; Natural Resources Canada

Ontario’s Climate – Finch Ave ($590M)O ta o s C ate c e ($590 )

Broken Watermain2 High Pressure Gas Mains

Bell Canada

Broken Maintenance Hole

PlantBell CanadaPlant

Parks Path

Toronto Hydro andRogers Cable

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Ontario’s Climate – Finch Ave ($590M)

In August 2005, up to 175 mm of rain fell in a very small area of Toronto over a short period of time washing out

O ta o s C ate c e ($590 )

area of Toronto over a short period of time, washing out Finch Avenue and causing extensive damage to both public and private property:

•Two broken gas mainsf f f•Infrastructure failure, section of Finch Ave.

washed away (5 months re-open, further impacting local homes and businesses - $45 million)•Backed up storm sewers• >4200 basements flooded

Damages and costs caused by this event could potentially have been mitigated in local planning processes by the use of: •permeable pavements•wrapping of communication cables •wider culvert •improved road drainage

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Ontario’s Climate – Extreme Wind / Tornadoes (V h T d )(Vaughan Tornado)

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Ontario’s Climate - Extreme Wind / Tornadoes

In 2009 Vaughan and Grey County tornadoes

O ta o s C ate t e e d / o adoes

In 2009, Vaughan and Grey County tornadoes resulted in $76M in insurance claims - wind damage resulting in personal injury, infrastructure/ property damage, and power failures

In June 2010 a wind and thunderstorm event in Leamington resulted in $120M in insuranceLeamington resulted in $120M in insurance claims.

Last August a tornado in Goderich resulted in $110M d t th it ’ d t d$110M damage to the city’s downtown core and disruptions in electricity and natural gas utilities.

Source: Insurance Bureau of Canada

1010 Photo: Tornado damage in Vaughan, 2009

Climate Impacts - Energy SupplyC ate pacts e gy Supp y

Impactsp• The changing climate may have impacts on the energy sector.

Impacts will vary across the province:• Rising water temperatures in Great Lakes reduce cooling efficiency in g p g y

thermal generation station (nuclear, coal), limiting production• Reduced water flow can reduce output in hydroelectric facilities (potential

50% reduction in Niagara/St. Lawrence by 2050, 1100MW)• More frequent severe weather damaging infrastructure (1998 ice storm

required replacement of 100 high-voltage towers and 10,500 poles)• Peak demand due to warmer and more frequent hot days could in some

regions exceed the maximum capacity of current transmission systemsregions exceed the maximum capacity of current transmission systems and will be combined with system stresses due to heat.

Source: Natural Resources Canada

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Climate Impacts – InsuranceC ate pacts su a ce

Impacts• Insurance sector is concerned

Catastrophic Insurance Loses in Canada

• Insurance sector is concerned with rising costs from climate impacts (particularly from water damage/flooding)

• Losses related to water damage (e.g. basement flooding) #1 cost to Canadian insurers ($1.5 billion annually)

• Finch Ave. washout is the 3rd most expensive catastrophic event in Canadian history, cost mainly covered through insurance payouts

• Insurance industry investing in research to promote reduced risk.

Source: Insurance Bureau of Canada

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Ontario’s Climate - Liability & RiskO ta o s C ate ab ty & s

Governments and private sector face liability over climate change impacts– Property damage and personal injuryProperty damage and personal injury– Failure to take climate risks into account

RBC using climate information to manage risks in investment portfolio decisions Sectors identified with significant climate risks:decisions. Sectors identified with significant climate risks:

– Hydropower– Insurance– Tourism & Recreation– Agriculture & Fisheries– Forestry

Ontario Securities Commission now requires publicly traded companies toOntario Securities Commission now requires publicly traded companies to disclose material risks related to climate impacts

Torys Law Firm found liability should be regarded as significant driver of climate change adaptation (NRTEE commissioned study)

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climate change adaptation (NRTEE commissioned study)

What is Ontario Doing?at s O ta o o g

In April 2011, MOE released Climate Ready: Ontario’s Adaptation Strategy and Action PlanOntario’s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan (2011- 2014)

• Provides a framework for 37 current adaptation actionsProvides a framework for 37 current adaptation actions and a vision for future actions that may be considered to 2014 and beyond

D l d th h ll b ti ff t 12• Developed through a collaborative effort across 12 ministries and informed by meetings with key external stakeholders and recommendations from the Expert Panel on Climate Change Adaptation

• MOE tracks and supports identification of new actions through partnerships with other ministries.

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Ontario’s Adaptation Vision and GoalsO ta o s daptat o s o a d Goa s

VISIONA i d f th i t f h i li t th h• A province prepared for the impacts of a changing climate through implementation of policies and programs that minimize risks to our health and safety, the environment and the economy, and maximizes the benefits from opportunities which may arise

GOALS1. Avoid loss and unsustainable investment, and take advantage of economic

opportunitiesT k bl d ti l t i li t ili f2. Take reasonable and practical measures to increase climate resilience of ecosystems

3. Create and share risk-management tools to support adaptation efforts across the provinceA hi b tt d t di f f t li t h i t th4. Achieve a better understanding of future climate change impacts across the province

5. Seek opportunities to collaborate with others

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Actions to Deliver the Strategy and Action Planct o s to e e t e St ategy a d ct o a

• Action 1: Require consideration of climate change adaptation• To ensure that government policies and programs consider the impacts of

climate change

A ti 2 Th i ill t k l d hi l d d i th• Action 2: The province will take leadership role and drive the implementation of the Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

– Act as a catalyst for new policy; assist review of existing policies– Report on adaptation actions– Sustain adaptation actions across government– Co-ordinate/undertake economic and climate impact studies– Integrate science and policy– Be a resource for the public and government on adaptationp g p– Establish OPS Climate Modelling Collaborative

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Climate Ready ActionsC ate eady ct o s

Water Resourcesate esou ces• A changing climate will affect both water quantity and quality. Intense rain storms and

changes in the annual snow melt may cause flooding to happen more often. A changing climate may lead to reduced winter ice cover on lakes, lower lake levels and more frequent water shortages due to increased evaporation rates.

• Some of the actions include:• promoting water conservation through the new Water Opportunities and Water Conservation Act,

2010 (Action 3)• ensuring climate change considerations are integrated into Ontario’s drinking water safety net

and source water protection framework (Action 9)• building consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation actions in all Great Lakes

Agreements (Action 18).

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Climate Ready ActionsC ate eady ct o s

Buildings & Infrastructure• Changing weather impacts all classes of

infrastructure from buildings, roads and bridges to hydro-transmission lines, and stormwater drainage. Impacts may cause flooding, road washouts, ice and windstorm damage.

• Some of the actions include:consulting on updates to the Ontario Building Code to• consulting on updates to the Ontario Building Code to increase resiliency to climate change impacts (Action 5)

• undertaking infrastructure vulnerability assessments to understand the impacts of climate change overto understand the impacts of climate change over time (Action 6)

• re-aligning and strengthening the winter road network in Northern Ontario (Action 11)

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Agricultureg cu tu e

• The agricultural sector will need to deal with increasing impacts of extreme weather events on farm operations such as drought and hail damage asweather events on farm operations such as drought and hail damage, as well as pest infestations and increased crop vulnerability.

• Warmer and longer growing seasons may present opportunities for some

• Some of the actions include:

g g g yfarmers and allow a northward extension of crop production, in some cases, where soil conditions are suitable.

Some of the actions include:• developing new approaches to protect plant

health by undertaking research on new crops and best management practices (Action 13)

• protecting animal health through detection and surveillance of new and emerging animal diseases (Action 12)

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The Natural Environmente atu a o e t

• Climate change may impact the composition, distribution and abundance of Ontario’s biodiversity For exampleand abundance of Ontario s biodiversity. For example, warming water temperatures will cause cold and cool water fish (e.g., lake trout) to lose habitat, while warm water species (e.g., smallmouth bass) will gain habitat.

• Ontario’s forests will be impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of disturbances such as fires, drought and severe storms. Damaging insect and disease attacks may also affect Ontario forests.y

• Some of the actions include:• researching and assessing forest and fisheries vulnerability to

the impacts of climate change (Actions 17 and 19)p g ( )• building the consideration of climate change impacts into Great

Lakes Agreements (Action 18)

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Healthea t

• Changing climate affects human health in many E t th h h t hways. Extreme weather such as heat waves, heavy

rain, high winds and poor air quality can cause serious health issues for Ontarians. Warmer temperatures have already begun to allow the

d d f it d ti k bappearance and spread of mosquito and tick-borne diseases, such as West Nile virus and Lyme disease.

• Some of the actions include:Some of the actions include:• supporting the development of a heat vulnerability tool

to identify at-risk populations (Actions 24 and 35)• raising awareness of Lyme disease, as disease vectors

expand into new areas of Ontario with warmingexpand into new areas of Ontario with warming temperatures (Action 25)

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CommunitiesCo u t es

• Climate change will have varying impacts across the different i f h i d d i ill b d d b ildregions of the province, and adaptation will be needed to build

community resiliency.

Th bli d th i ht i f ti d d i i k t th• The public needs the right information and decision-makers at the local level need effective tools to undertake adaptation planning.

• Some of the actions include:• Some of the actions include:• taking climate change adaptation considerations into

account in the Provincial Policy Statement and increasing local awareness of land use planning tools that support climate change adaptation (Action 22)climate change adaptation (Action 22)

• providing outreach and training to support communities as they assess local impacts and put effective adaptation strategies into place (Actions 28 and 35)

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Ontario Regional Adaptation Collaborative

• Initiative with Natural Resources Canada to advance community level adaptation planning and actions to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts.

O ta o eg o a daptat o Co abo at e

y g p

• Program value is up to $6.8M from December 2009 – March 2012.

• MOE’s RAC partners include:The Ministry of Natural Resources;• The Ministry of Natural Resources;

• The Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing;• Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources (OCCIAR);• Toronto Public Health;• York University;• Toronto and Region Conservation Authority;• Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction;• Clean Air Partnership; and• Association for Canadian Educational Resources.

• Potential opportunity for local engagement (e.g. Conservation Authorities) and participation in components of the RAC (e.g., workshops and risk management tools).

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Ontario Regional Adaptation CollaborativeUrban ComponentBuild capacity through outreach and training with large urban communities (e.g. municipalities, public health units) across Ontario.Partners: CAP.

Rural/Northern ComponentBuild capacity through outreach and training with small, rural, agricultural, resource-based and Northern communities across Ontario.Partners: OCCIAR.

Outreach & Capacity Building

Public Health ToolsDevelop heat vulnerability assessment tool

Ontario RAC

Weather and Water Information Gateway:Create a web-based integrated Provincial weather and water information discovery and access service to facilitate decision-

Develop heat vulnerability assessment tool to enable public health units to deliver scarce resources during a heat event. Partner: Toronto Public Health.

Municipal Risk Assessment Tools

Water Resources

Risk Management

RACmaking the community level.Partners: MNR, ACER.

Expand and update municipal guide to assist municipalities to create risk-based vulnerability assessments. Partner: MMAH.

Resilient BuildingsDocument and make available best practices to retrofit existing homes to improve resilience to climate extremes. Information could be used to update provincial building code,

Source ProtectionEnsure assessment reports and source protection plans for vulnerable communities in Ontario include climate change adaptation (e.g. potential water shortages) policies and data

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p p gmunicipal bylaws, current constructions practices, etc.Partner: Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction.

shortages) policies and data.Partners: MOE, TRCA/CO, York University.

RAC: Heat Vulnerability Assessment

Public Health—Extreme Heat Vulnerability Tool

C eat u e ab ty ssess e t

• Tool is used to geographically plot areas of high heat vulnerability against areas where there are high numbers of seniors living g galone.

• Allows Public Health Units to target programs like cooling centres in areas where high populations of seniors are most vulnerable to heat.

Sample Map Produced Using the Heat-Related Vulnerability Approach

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RAC: Infrastructure Best Practices

Increasing Building Resiliency• The Institute of Catastrophic Loss Reduction is developing best practice

C ast uctu e est act ces

• The Institute of Catastrophic Loss Reduction is developing best practice guidance for the construction of new buildings, and retrofitting of existing buildings, to improve their resilience to weather extremes (increased frequency and intensity of windstorms, precipitation & snowloads). Th d t th d th h t t it i ti ti d l b t• The data gathered through extreme event site investigations and laboratory simulations can be used to inform:

◦ updates of provincial and national building codes; ◦ municipal bylaws, and;municipal bylaws, and; ◦ current construction practices.

• ICLR is also identifying actions that owners of existing homes can take to protect their properties by preparing mitigation handbooks on wild fires andprotect their properties by preparing mitigation handbooks on wild fires and floods.

◦ Next steps have UWO Engineering staff documenting measures that homeowners could take to reduce risks associated with heavy snowfalls.

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RAC: Ministry of Municipal Affairs and HousingC st y o u c pa a s a d ous g

Municipal Risk Assessment ToolThe MMAH will create a user friendly interactive web enabled version of a municipal• The MMAH will create a user-friendly, interactive web-enabled version of a municipal climate change risk assessment Guide and Workbook, designed for use by small to medium sized municipalities in Ontario.

• The Tool will: • set out a risk assessment methodology to assist in the development of gy p

adaptation strategies for climate change impacts (the methodology is based on international risk assessment standards such as ISO 31000);

• incorporate up to date weather data, including climate projections for three climate regions in Ontario;include examples of ongoing and potential future climate change impacts with a• include examples of ongoing and potential future climate change impacts, with a particular focus on operational and infrastructure impacts that would be of interest to Ontario municipalities;

• incorporate case studies relevant to Ontario municipalities; and• provide templates with instructions to be used by municipalities during the risk p p y p g

assessment and adaptation strategy development process.• The Tool is being translated into French and will be tested in two pilot communities

before broader public release.

New Federal Adaptation Fundingp g

The Canadian Federal Government has been making significant investments in both climate science and adaptation planningp p g

• The current focus is sector-based (e.g., mining, forestry, economics & energy)

The Federal Government has announced $148.8 million over the next 5 years to better understand and adapt to the changing climate; Ontario has an opportunity to l f di f l d t tleverage funding from several departments:

• $35M Natural Resources Canada Enhancing Competitiveness in a Changing Climate • $29.84M Environment Canada’s Climate Change Prediction and Scenarios Program • $16.55M Department of Fisheries and Oceans’ Aquatic Climate Adaptation Program • $2.41M Parks Canada Understanding Ecological Changes in Canada’s North$2.41M Parks Canada Understanding Ecological Changes in Canada s North • $8.5M Health Canada’s Heat Alert and Response Systems• $10M Health Canada’s Health Adaptation for Northern First Nations and Inuit Communities • $12M Public Health Agency of Canada for Preventive Public Health Systems• $20.02M Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada’s Climate Adaptation and

Resilience Program for Aboriginals and NorthernersResilience Program for Aboriginals and Northerners• $3.5M Industry Canada and Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada, for

Integrating Adaptation into Codes and Standards for Northern Infrastructure• $10.99M Transport Canada’s Northern Transportation Adaptation Initiative

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Next Stepse t Steps

• We will be looking for opportunities across government to further integrate adaptation into government policies and programs

• The Environmental Commissioner released a special report on adaptation• The Environmental Commissioner released a special report on adaptation March 7, 2012.

• MOE will be drafting a report on status of Climate Ready (Spring 2012)

• Explore opportunities to leverage federal adaptation funding (Spring 2012)

W l f db k k t d i l ti Cli t• We welcome your feedback as we work towards implementing Climate Ready over the next four years and beyond.

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