Climate Prospecting with Silo Enhanced Meteorology Data

Peter BriggsCSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research

Kristen Williams, Di Prestwidge, Ian BiggsCSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems

New Growing Areas for Macadamias

This talk is about‘Climate Prospecting’: A new application of Silo Enhanced Meteorology

Daily meteorology gridded continent-wide at 5 km scale

Assisting change management in agricultural industries

Identifying potential for industry expansionCoping with climate change

An illustrative exampleIdentification of potential new growing areas for Macadamias

Thanks to co-authorsKristen J. Williams, Ian Biggs, Cameron McConchie, John Underhill, Paul

Ryan, Randal Storey, Di Prestwidge, Luis Laredo, Trev Parker, Craig Hardner, Peter Thorburn (2005) Identification of Potential New Growing Areas for Macadamias. A report for Horticulture Australia Limited. CSIRO, Brisbane.

Talk OutlineSilo DataMacadamia Nuts in AustraliaClimate Risk and OpportunityClimate ProspectingA Couple of ResultsClimate Change

Silo DataGridded daily meteorology at 0.05° (~ 5km)BoM data interpolated by QDNRMWhat’s Available

Quantity Precision PeriodRainfall 0.1 mm d-1 from 1880Pan evap 0.2 mm d-1 from 1970Solar irradiance 1 MJ m-2 d-1 from 1889Air temp minimum 0.5 °C from 1889Air temp maximum 0.5 °C from 1889Vapour pressure 1 hPa from 1889

Coming soonBoM version of Silo (1980+, also 0.05°) Most surfaces very similar (same source data, duh)But, solar irradiance will incorporate GMS satellite data

Principle Problem: Sparse Network

Interpolation Increasingly difficult prior to 1965

MAX TEMPMIN TEMPVAPOUR PRESSSOLAR RAD

800

RAINFALL~5000 stations

Year1880 2000

Samples (1) Tropical Cyclone "Peter" dumps 1947mm in 48 hrs on Bellenden Ker QLDJan 4-6, 1979

24 hrs to 9am 9amJan 5thJan 5th

Sample (2) ‘Ash Wednesday’ Fires Devastate Victoria - Feb 16, 1983

Macadamia Nuts in AustraliaMacadamia industry wants to expand (and move)

Land pressure from peri-urban development (Northern Rivers)Limited water availability (Bundaberg)Want more money (all of them)

Macadamias are climatically very sensitive (subtropical rainforest natives)

Vulnerable to temperature extremes (cold and hot)Particular requirements (temperature) and vulnerabilities (rainfall) for reproductionVulnerable to wind/cyclone damage (shallow rooted)Drought sensitive

Economics6 to 7 years to first crop12 years to first net income Productive life 30+ years

800 growers800 growers16000 ha16000 ha

A Year of Macadamia FarmingSummer Autumn Winter Spring Summ

NOV DEC

Vegetative flushing

Flower initiation

Flowering

Fruit developmentNut set, growth

oil accummulation

Fruit drop

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT

Premature nut fall

18-20 ºC nights for flower initiation

Nut development requres mean daily temps of ~25 ºC. Moisture stress may result in early shell hardening and smaller nuts

Any frosts will destroy flowers

Potential for wind damage to flowers and nuts

Rainfall in this period may result in reduced light levels either limiting photosynthate production or inducing vegetative growth and thus reducing flowering

Misty or cloudy weather can result in fungal diseases of flowers and young nuts

Presence of bees aids pollination

Whinge:

Climate Risk…

Frost DamageEvent type Macadamia Life Stage Threshold

Temperature Threshold Duration Proposed Output

Light frost (damaging to lethal)

Young tree, orchard establishing (age up to 4 or 8 years) < 2ºC 2 successive days

Probability of more than two successive days with temperatures < 2ºC

Heavy frost (sub-lethal)

Mature tree, established orchard (> 5 or 8 years) < –2ºC 4 successive days

Probability of more than four successive days with temperatures < -2ºC

Event type Macadamia Life Stage Threshold Temperature Threshold Duration Proposed Output

Heat damage (damaging to lethal) Young or established orchard > 38ºC 4 successive days

Probability of more than four successive days with temperatures > 38ºC

Heat damage (lethal to rapid death) Young or established orchard > 42ºC 2 successive days

Probability of more than two successive days with temperatures > 42ºC

Heat Damage

…and Opportunity

Requirements for Flower Initiation → Fruiting (Uncertain but thought to be…)

4 or more continuous days with a minimum temperature in the range: 12°C ≤ Tmin ≤ 20°CBut, initiation event can be annulled if temperatures subsequently exceed 20°C for approximately the same period or longer Can decide the difference between one crop, two crops, and no crop in a given year

Climate Risk and Opportunity:

Assessing the suitability of local climate for new agricultural adventures can be complicated

Climate risks come from various sources with varying probabilityGood and bad events can be defined by:

ThresholdsDurationsSpecific sequencesCombinations of all of the aboveOther stuff I haven’t thought of

Assessing it relies on good plant physiological knowledge (CSIRO CSE, PI)good farming industry knowledge (Horticulture Australia Ltd.)a mediocre programmer (CMAR)

“Climate Prospecting”

Probabilistic analysis of gridded met time series to assess and map climate potential and risk Comparison with other spatial data (land-use, soil, irrigation, cadastral, etc.) to define areas of practical potential and actual risk

My contribution…Write some code to achieve Come up with the term Climate ProspectingTM

“Climate Prospector”A pilot program for tracking flower initiation events through 50 years of

daily min and max temperature, continent wide

Definition of an event12°C ≤ Tmin ≤ 20°C for 4 or more consecutive days

TaskTo determine for each of 12 months and each of 4 seasons…

Mean number of events in that month or seasonMean event duration…Probability of at least one event…Mean starting date for first event (if any)…(i.e. earlier or later in the month/season?)

Mean number of event days… (number of days that were part of an event, regardless of what month/seas the event started or finished in)

Outputs12 monthly and 4 seasonal maps for each quantity

Coding The ProblemComplete event-tracking for ~280000 5km x 5km grid cells, through a 50-

year (18263-day) time-series of min and max temperature, in one pass

Tailor-made for Fortran 95: Efficient for large arrays both computationally, and for code writing, and I know it…how convenient

Define a large number of new continent-sized arraysFlag arrays

Record event status “On” or “Off” (i.e. within temperature range)

Timing arraysRecord event start date, date of significance (≥ 4 days)

Statistical arrays (x 12 months and x 4 seasons)accumulate timestamps, durations, and counts

March through the daily meteorology in chronological orderAs events finish

Send event timestamp, duration, count increments to corresponding cells of stats arraysReset event status flags, initialise timing arrays

Mean Probability of At Least One FI Event (1955-2004)

D J F

M A M

J J A

S O N

Apparently not very

limiting but…

Mean Monthly Event Duration (1955-2004)

D J F

M A M

J J A

S O N

Days

Spring

Autumn

Climate Change – Trends in Extremes Collins et al. 2000, Aust. Met MagExtreme temperature trends, high quality station records, 1957-1996

Increasing hot nights for Macadamias, implications for flower init?Also reduced risk of frosts (not shown)

Freq Tmin ≥ 20°C Freq Tmin ≥ 20°C for 3-5 consecutive nights

Climate Change – Trends in Rainfall

Bureau of MeteorologyTrends in Annual Total Rainfall (mm per decade)

Freq Tmin ≥ 20°C Freq Tmin ≥ 20°C for 3-5 consecutive nights1950-2004 1970-2004

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi

Summary (1) Climate Prospecting Advantages

Simple problems can get quick answers‘Event tracking’ framework can deal with complex climate scenarios (e.g. greater than PlantGro)……without resorting to complex process-based models of plant growth……and using a relatively simple toolkit

Thresholds, durations, conditionalsProbability analysis well-suited to agricultural risk-management

Summary (2) Future Prospects

Other crops, other questionsCode is currently Macadamia specific, but addresses several generic classes of problem.Easy to modify manuallyGeneralisation harder but possible

Climate change risk and adaptationInstead of Silo, model-generated met under enhanced CO2 conditionsEarly identification of areas of new potential, and current areas under threat

BTW, where are my freebies?

Macadamia Potential – 700,000 haSuitability

RatingDetermined usingANUCLIM and PlantGro

Good

Marginal

Poor

IncludingAvailable for agricultureprevailing temperature (thermal development)temp extremes within limits for mature treeswater availability (with irrigation)solar radiation (rainfall modified)wind (mean prevailing)

Not including (beyond scope)Climate Prospecting “events” affecting crop development: flowering, veg flush, nut and oil development