Climate Predictions and Projections Ants Leetmaa Program Manager Contributions from: Jin Huang, Ming...

Climate Predictions and Projections


Ants LeetmaaProgram Manager

Contributions from: Jin Huang, Ming Ji, Arun Kumar; and Jim Todd


Program Performance Objectives

• Improve climate predictive capability from weeks to decades, with increased range of applicability for management and policy decisions

• Reduce uncertainty in climate change projections through timely information on forcing and feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earth’s climate

• Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems


Program Requirements: Legislative

• Global Change Research Act: This act mandates the development of a research program whose goal is to understand climate variability and its predictability

• Weather Service Organic Act: Outlines NOAA’s responsibility to produce climate forecasts

• Coastal Zone Management Act: Requires understanding and predicting long-term climate change which may have large impacts in the coastal zone (such as global warming and associated sea level rise)

• Strategic plan for the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP): requires reduced uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate may change in future.


Program Requirements: NOAA Mission

• Understand and predict climate variability on timescales ranging from intraseasonal through seasonal to decadal and beyond

• Monitor, assess, and forecast climate • Improve climate models to reduce uncertainty in the projections of

Earth’s climate• Improve knowledge of observed variability and change of the

Earth’s past and present climate and environment• Understand and predict long-term climate change and evaluate its

impacts on the coastal zone


Program Capabilities: 1

• Operational Predictions, Projections and Products: – To provide operational predictions and

products from intraseasonal-to-decadal time scales

– To provide climate assessments and projections in support of policy decisions with objective and accurate climate change information



• High-end Climate/Earth System Model Development: – To develop and implement the next generation

of climate and Earth System models and to transition improved models into operations

– Resources reside in the Environmental Modeling program under the Weather and Water goal



• Applied Research and Product Development: – To improve operational predictions and

projections– Develop new climate products– To sustain an applied research capability in

understanding, attributing climate variability and its predictability


Program Capabilities:4

• Test Models against observations and define requirements for observing systems to support forecasts and improve model: – Based on model simulations and predictions

studies, provide observational requirements for improving climate predictions and projections


Program Outcomes and the End-State

• The long-term outcomes:– NOAA has world-class Earth System Models providing the best

climate predictions and projections available. – Following users’ requirements develop new climate predictions

and projections products.– NOAA maintains a suite of routine climate outlooks, climate

projections, and climate assessments.– NOAA’s internal and external research community maintained

by sustained by research funding to enhance NOAA's climate forecasts, assessments, and applications products.

– Provide observational requirements to GEOSS for improving climate outlooks and projections.


Climate Services and Products

• Current Prediction Products– Operational monthly/seasonal outlooks– Seasonal hurricane outlook – Days 6-10, 8-10 outlooks– Drought Monitoring and seasonal outlook– Seasonal heat index and wind chill outlook– ENSO outlook


Climate Services and Products

• Current Informational Products:– Contributions to IPCC assessments– Climate Attribution reports – Observational system requirement reports


Unique Role of the Program in the NOAA

Climate Goal• Providing operational predictions, projections, and

information reports– Operational climate outlooks– Climate change projections– Attribution reports

• Provide a mechanism for transition-to-operations (the Climate Test-Bed; GAPP Core Project)

• Develop user required climate products and applications• Promote understanding of climate variability and change,

and its application for enhancing predictions and products• Linking observations with climate predictions and

projections


Functional Structure of the P&P Program

Capability 1

Capability 3 &4


Participating NOAA Line Offices

• NOAA Research– GFDL – NOAA Climate Program Office

• Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP)• Climate Prediction Program for Americas (CPPA)• Climate Variability and Predictability (CVP)

• National Weather Service– National Centers for Environmental Predictions

• CPC• EMC

– Office of Hydrology


Participating External Agencies/Organizations

• International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• National and international working groups (CRC; CCSP; CLIVAR; GAPP; GEWEX; IOC;WMO;…)

• Academia and research community external to NOAA

• Numerous bi-lateral and multi-lateral international agreements


Current Activities in the Program

• Operational climate forecasts on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and services (Climate Prediction Center)

• Model Development for climate predictions and projections

• Climate projections and decadal climate predictions

• Transition-to-Operations


Current Activities in the Program

• Climate Dynamics and Experimental Predictions – Applied research centers– assessments and predictions of global climate variability

and its regional implications

• Climate Prediction Program for Americas– Improving operational intraseasonal to interannual

climate prediction and the hydrological applications in the Americas

• Climate Variability and Predictability– To observe, model and understand patterns of climate

variability longer time scales


The Role of Competitive Programs

• Competitive Research– Address long-term needs (science driven future projects)– Merit based through competition– Mission oriented but not “directed”– Open to external and internal community

• Directed Research– Address short-term needs (e.g., improve operations)– Primarily done by the internal NOAA community

• Climate Test-bed example– Competitive externally lead transition projects– Base funded (NCEP) internal transition projects– Base resource allocated to support transition projects


Climate and Ecosystems

Program

Regional Decision Support Program

Climate Observations and Analysis Program

Relationship with the Other Programs in the Climate

Goal

Predictions and Projections Program

Climate Forcing Program


Program Outcome and Related Performance

Measures• NOAA has world-class Earth-System Models

– Number of improved model components• Following users’ requirements develop new products

– Number of improved products– Number of new products under development

• NOAA maintains a suite of climate outlooks– Climate Predictive Index: A weighted average of operational

skill on intraseasonal, seasonal, and decadal time scales– Intraseasonal prediction skill- research– Seasonal prediction skill-research– Decadal prediction skill-research

• NOAA’s internal and external research community maintained by sustained research funding– Number of information products


End Users and Beneficiaries

• General public, private sector, Regional, and National Managers in Water Resources, Ecosystem, Agriculture, Energy, Transportation, and Public Heath Sectors: – The program provides operational forecasts and outlooks of

intraseasonal to interannual variations and intradecadal trends.

• International Coastal Ecosystem Management, Fisheries, Public Health, Regional and National Managers: – The program provides objective information about climate

change projections in support of making informed policy decisions related to mitigation and adaptation strategies related to global change.

• Climate Observation and Analysis, Regional Decision Support, and Climate and Ecosystems Programs under the Climate Goal


Highlights and Past Successes

• Climate Process Teams

• Climate Model Evaluation Project

• Completion of the field phase of NAME

• Successful Hurricane outlooks

• Improved SI prediction techniques

• Development of Application Products

• Initiation of Climate Test-Bed

• Annual Climate Attribution Reports

• Contributions to IPCC AR4

• Development of Drought Prediction

• Clarifying the role of oceans in global climate

• NARCAPP


GFDL Simulation of Atmospheric Circulation in a Coupled Mode are

Among the Best

Average of rankings by R.M.S. error for each of 20 circulation, precipitation, TOA energy balance indices


Z200 Trends Reanalyses and Climate of 20th Century Simulation

Trend over last 40 years

Coupled model shows some ridging, but simulations could be better – especially in yearly mean and locations


Simulating and Understanding Active and Inactive Atlantic Tropical

storms/hurricanes Seasons

1982 – Inactive year 1995 – Active year

GFDL Zetac nonhydrostatic regional model, 18km resolution, with large-scale interior nudging

Observed (Aug.-Oct.), n=4 Observed (Aug-Oct.), n=15

Simulation 2: 48-hr nudging, n=14 Simulation 2: 48-hr nudging, n=6


Objective Consolidation of Different SI Prediction

ToolsCONSOLIDATION IMPROVES SKILL BY 12%


Multi-Model Framework for Attribution of Climate Anomalies

Observed Sfc. Temp.

Average Sfc. Temp. Simulated by 5 AGCMS


Vol. Soil Moisture 0-200 cm July 1988: Drought Summer

Pilot T126 Uncoupled GLDAS/LIS/Noah: 1979-1995 NCEP/DOE Global Reanalysis Surface Forcing


GFS/Noah reduced longstanding high bias of GFS/OSU over east half of

CONUSin the warm season:

Ops:GFS/OSU

Test:GFS/Noah

Example shown for 09-25 May 2005 Mean 17-day surface latent heat flux (W/mm**2) for the 12-36 hour GFS forecast.


North America REGIONAL REANALYSIS

Long-term set of consistent climate data on a regional scale for the North American domain (1979-present)

NCEP/ETA MODEL 32 KM Spatial Resolution; 3 Hourly Temporal Resolution

Superior to NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis due to:

1) Use of a regional model2) Advances in modeling and data

assimilation since 1995:• Precipitation assimilation• Direct assimilation of

radiances• Land-surface model updates

(REGIONAL REANALYSIS DOMAIN)


Budget Impacts and FY05 and FY06 Priorities

Budget Line Impact

Weather/Climate Connection Slowdown in improving Intraseasonal forecasts

Climate Observation and Services Program

Slowdown in development of new prediction products

Climate Modeling CenterReduce outlay for developing decadal predictive capability

Competitive ProgramsNo increases in various grants programs influencing research support


Future Directions and Priorities


10 Year Plan

Where we are now Our near term goals (‘07-’09) Where we plan to be 2020

Develop and implement strategy with community to improve range and skill

of forecast products.Implement systematic research

forecasting program

Implement routine capability for attribution of recent and past climate anomalies taking into account natural

and anthropogenic effects

Implement Earth System Modeling capability with

improved components related to forcings and feedbacks. Provide

high resolution projections for users

Implement systematic research program to assess potential predictability and improve

models

Seasonal forecasts for temperature and precipitation

with limited skill and regionality

Developing capability for attribution of recent major

climate anomalies

Projections of future climate limited by uncertainties in

forcings, carbon cycle feedbacks, and limited

regionality

Process research, hypothesis-testing and diagnostic studies not obviously linked to forecast

skill improvements and new products

Region specific climate projections based on the Earth System

models

Asses various technological mitigation activities and their

impacts on global and regional environmental changes

Real time attribution capability to predict potential climate surprises

and respond to new climate questions

Skillful Seamless suite of Forecasts and products utilizing

multi- earth system models

Forecast products of the impacts on the environment and

ecosystems on a global and regional scale


Desired End State (based on FY08-12 Planning)

• Initial State in FY08: – Improved operational seasonal forecasts– Experimental seasonal forecasts based on multi-model

ensembles– Develop an understanding of decadal trends– Experimental decadal prediction– Application models for drought, fire, water resources– Earth system models for next sets of national and

international assessment– Better knowledge of uncertainties in climate projections– Development of a vigorous research-to-operations

program with implementation of Climate Test-bed


Desired End-State (based on FY08-12 Planning)

• End State in FY12– Improved operational seasonal forecasts based primarily

on dynamical techniques– A broader suite of climate forecast products and services

(extending to health, energy, ecosystems, disaster mitigation etc.)

– IPCC AR5 in 2012 and reduced uncertainty in the projection of future climate

– Transition decadal forecasts into operations– Estimate of likelihood of abrupt climate change– A robust research-to-operations program implemented


Decision support products: management & policy

Operational Forecasts

Transition: Test bed

Research Forecasts, Projections and Product Development

Structured Model Experiments•NOAA, national, international

Process and diagnostic research•Climate variability and change

•Abrupt change•Forcings Program

Model Development and Computers(in W&W: Environmental Modeling Program)

Performance metrics

Performance metrics

Performance metrics

Observing Program

Predictions and Projections: An Approach to Attain Desired End-

State


How do we get There? Develop a Protocol for Linking Research to Improved Capabilities: A Possible

Process

Develop a “life cycle” approach (finite life time projects) for two tracks

• Areas where existing predictability studies show promise of enhanced skill• Where national/international programs (or other considerations) indicate

needed research foci – with goal to increase predictive understandingSteps• Establish priority areas via: a) results from predictability studies, b) other

research, c) AGM (or otherwise) high payoff/relevant areas• Finalize the list based on the input from the research community (SAB;

ARCs; …)• Include research needs in AOs of the appropriate program (CDEP, CPPA,

CVP)• Fund a group of proposals focusing on identified research needs• Monitor progress yearly• At the end of the 3-year funding cycle, prepare a “summary assessment

report”• Results of relevance will be transitioned either to systematic research fcst

category or to operations via CTB


How to get There? Developing a NOAA Capability for Multi-Model Ensembles

for Attribution and Prediction

• What we have now:

– C20C simulations with different natural and anthropogenic forcings

– Seasonal Diagnostics Consortium AMIP simulations forced with global SSTs

– MM ensemble predictions at IRI (based on tier-2 approach)

– Empirical-Dynamical prediction system at Climate Diagnostics Center


How to get There? Developing a NOAA Capability for Multi-Model Ensembles for Attribution and

Prediction

• What is the goal for 2012:

– A multi-model tier-1 SI prediction capability that would include several national models

– Multi-model ensembles for regional downscaling– Linking to application models – Formalization of climate attribution and predictability

assessment activity as a NOAA requirement– An ability to perform “on-demand” AGCM runs for

attribution and predictability assessments– A data distribution capability to enhance community

involvement in the attribution and predictability aspect of climate variability


Future Directions: Intraseasonal Predictions

• Improved week2 skill score• Develop a capability to predict climate

extremes for week 2,3,4• Develop a predictive understanding of

the impacts of climate on the statistics of extreme events, including hurricane


Future Directions: Seasonal-to-Interannual

Predictions

• Improved skill of SI Predictions– Establish a systematic community based multi-model

forecasting capability/infrastructure – Develop a dynamical understanding of trends– Incorporate impacts of other ocean basins in SI forecasts– Systematic predictability assessments to establish

baseline predictability limits• Implementation of a routine attribution capability• Implement drought monitoring, forecasting, and

attribution capability• Develop an understanding of the influence of

climate on environment• Develop new forecast products


Future Predictions: Decadal-to-Centennial

Climate Variability and Trends

• Develop experimental decadal forecast • Understand the contributions of natural and

anthropogenic effect on the major climate anomalies of 20th Century

• Understand feedback processes important of abrupt climate change

• Reduce uncertainty of future climate projections• Improve Earth System Model Capability


• Future Operational Forecasts, Projections and Products• Operational and research seasonal to interannual forecasts• An objective drought monitor and forecast system• Seasonal hydrologic outlooks• Seasonal malaria outlooks• Experimental decadal forecasts• Experimental seasonal air quality outlooks• Yearly attribution reports on previous year’s climate• WMO Ozone Assessment• CCSP Synthesis and Assessment products• Energy related seasonal outlooks• Dynamical seasonal hurricane outlooks• Attribution studies on climatic impacts on ecosystems• Seasonal outlooks for terrestrial carbon budgets• Available online forecasts, projections, structured numerical experiments for impact and application studies• Future IPCC Assessment Reports• Fire potential outlooks

Predictions and Projections: FY08-12

Products


Possible Threats-Summer 2020: hot, dry and unhealthy

Swimming and Fishing prohibited

African bacteria alerts

Expect fisheries downturn; health

threats

Health warning: Limit outdoor

activities; expect brownouts

Frequent floodings and Asian dust threats continue

Major fires Agricultural production at

50%, blowing dust

major fisheries regime change likely

Air quality alerts – 75% of days

High danger of toxic CO2 releases

New environmental forecast products will be feasible


Contribution of Prediction and Program to the Climate

Goal Priorities


P&P Program Structure

Operational Forecasts & Products

Research Forecasts and Products

Predictability Studies

Process Research and Hypothesis Testing

Activities contribution to development of NIDIS Objective model-based drought-relevant forecastsHigh resolution drought monitoring (nowcasts – utilizing various LDAS products)

Multi-model land and climate forecasts (coupled & off line), e.g. a national drought forecsting capabilityHigh resolution downscaling capabilitiesResearch forecasts utilizing dynamic vegetation & river runoff

Decadal predictability studies (utilizing global tropical information)Coupled & uncoupled studies to understand 20 th C. droughtsClimate of last 1000 years – modeling/data studies to understand potential for prolonged droughts & possible 21st C surprisesProjections for 21st C. exploring probabilities for future droughts

Assessing impacts of Indo-Pacific SST variability and trends on U.S. droughtsAssessing impacts of Atlantic decadal variability on U.S. droughtsNorth American research into understanding and predicting hydroclimatic regimes

P &P Program Actions Leading to Implementation of NIDIS


Seasonal Hydrologic Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction System: Prediction System:

A Multi-Model FrameworkA Multi-Model Framework

NCDC met. station obs.

up to 2-4 months from

current

local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs

soil moisturesnowpack

Hydrologic model spin up

SNOTEL

Update

streamflow, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, runoff

Now1-2 years back

LDAS/other real-time

met. forcings for spin-up

gap

Multiple HydrologicModels

Month 6 - 12

INITIAL STATE

SNOTEL/ MODIS*Update

Ensemble forecasts ESP traces (40) CPC-based outlook (13) NCEP CFS ensemble (20) NSIPP ensemble (9)

Source: Lettenmaier


P&P Program Contributions in Support of CCSP

CCSP Synthesis Report

Description

3.1Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis

3.3Climate extremes including documentation of current extremes. Prospects for improving projections

3.2Climate Projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios developed through CCTP

1.1 Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere- steps for understanding and reconciling differences

1.3Reanalysis of historical data for key atmospheric features. Implications for attribution of causes of observed change


P&P Program Contributions in Support of Ecosystems

• Development of Earth System models in support of coastal nutrient production and runoff

• Model based attribution (and future projection over the next few decades) of significant physical and biological changes to climate variability

• Increased understanding of how variability in climate and ecosystem are linked


Next Frontier for NOAA: Ecological Forecasting

(Nutrient delivery to the coasts)

Courtesy C. Vorosmarty, UNH


Appendix


Addressing the Environmental Challenges of the 21st Century

Applications Requiring ocean – atmosphere

forecasts from weather to climate timescales

Drought and Water Resources

Ecological Forecasting

Energy- Weather and Climate

Transoceanic Pollution and Climate

Extreme Events


June 1998-May 2002(The Perfect Oceans for Drought)

OBS

MODEL

Multi-Model Framework for Attribution of Climate

Anomalies


Ocean temperatures in hurricane formation area result from trends and

(natural) decadal variability

Understanding and ultimately forecasting state of Atlantic

variability

Simulating decadal Atlantic hurricane activity

Protecting the public with world’s best operational

hurricane forecast system

Understanding decadal variability in atmospheric conditions impacting

hurricane formation

Vertical shear - observed

vertical shear - modeled

August-October

Understanding and Prediction of Decadal Atlantic Variability and links to Changes in Hurricane Activity – a Research Program at

GFDL

A significant anthropogenic contribution to observed warming

Contrary to NOAA press release, data suggest Atlantic overturning circulation

is slowing down

Simulating and understanding climate

and hurricanes

Next step - develop understanding of causes

Composite of hurricanes in Gulf of Mexico and ocean surface temperatures summer 2005 -

what is link between these?

Model hindcasts


Note: Uses large-scale nudging


# of models that predict increase in precipitation by 2100

in A1B scenario, out of 20 models used by IPCC/AR4


Minimum spring total ozone: Simulated (3 runs 1960 to 2100) Observed (1979-2003)


Predictability of North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation


North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Index


-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

Cloud Forcing (W

m-2

)

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

Cloud Forcing (W

m-2

)

90S 60S 30S 0 30N 60N 90N

Empirical

Process -basedJuly

Standard AM2

Preliminary Results: Aerosol -Warm Cloud Interactions

Source: Ming et al., JAS, in review, 2005; Ming et al., JAS, in press, 2005; Ming et al., JGR, 110, D22206, doi:10.1029/2005JD0 06161, 2005.

Distribution of cloud droplet numbers (cm -3) at 844 mb

TOA flux change (W m -2) from preindustrial to present -day

Shortwave cloud forcing (W m -2)

Annual global mean Indirect effects: -1.8 W m -2

CO2: +1.5 W m -2

Satellite


Nutrient and CO2 Flux Hindcasts

Observed surface NO3 (uM)

Modeled surface NO3 (uM)

Observed CO2 Flux (mol m-2 yr-

1)

Modeled CO2 Flux (mol m-2 yr-

1)c


• Implies a strong role for the ocean model in the coupled simulation

• Unique capability to have multiple ocean models in coupled system

Replacing the ocean component of the climate model has a significant impact on

the SST error

MOM-based CM2.1 (in IPCC) HIM-based CM2.2 (pre-tuning)


• NSF/NOAA has funded CPTs between climate labs (GFDL, NCAR) and Universities to improve physical parameterizations in climate models.– Interaction of (Ocean) Eddies with Mixed Layers (EMILIE)

• http://www.cpt-emilie.org/

– (Ocean) Gravity Current Entrainment• http://www.cpt-gce.org/

– Low-Latitude Cloud Feedbacks• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~breth/CPT-clouds.html

• Teams include: - Observationalists - Process Modelers and Theoreticians- Model Developers - Climate Modeling Center participants

Already delivering improved parameterizations!

Climate Process Teams (CPTs)

http://cpt-emilie.org/


Observed profiles from Red Sea plume from RedSOX Courtesy CPT member H. Peters (U. Miami)

Interior Ri# +

Drag Mixing

Interior Ri#

Mixing Only

An Example of CPT Parameterization Improvements

With thick plumes, both interfacial shear mixing and drag-induced near-bottom mixing are needed

Legg et al., 2005

HIM10 km

HIM10 km

Resolved mixing (LES)

MITgcm500m x 30m

Well-mixed Bottom Boundary LayerMixing driven by bottom stresses

Actively mixingInterfacial LayerShear Ri# Param.appropriate here.


Global Mean Methane Trends

• Model with emissions held constant from year-to-year captures much of observed rise in the 1990s.

• Wetland pulse in 1998 is needed to capture magnitude post-1998.

• Trends in OH and temperature contribute to the CH4 rise, followed by a leveling off in the late 1990s.


Aerosol Model Evaluation

Observations

MO

ZA

RT

Sulfate (SO4=)


ModelEl Niño Events

Observation19

61-

1975

198

6-20

00

Model

La Niña Events

Observation

196

1-19

7519

86-

2000

200 mb Height

El Niño :• Before IWP (Indian-western Pacific) warming (1961-75), cold and wet conditions (200 mb troughs) prevail over U.S.• After IWP warming (1986-2000), ridge response to IWP forcing reduces strength of the trough anomaly.

La Niña :• Before IWP warming, warm and dry conditions (200 mb ridges) prevail over U.S.• After IWP warming, response to IWP forcing enhances ridge anomaly still further.


20th and 21st century Sahel rainfall in CM2

A2

B1

A1B

A2

B1

A1B

(CM2 mean)


MODEL

X2.4

Impact of AMO on Northern Pacific Variability

EOF 1 of Northern Pacific winter SST (1901-2000) Regression of winter 500mb geopotential height (m) on PC 1 of Northern Pacific winter SST (1949-2000)

OBS


oceanatmos landocean sea ice

Code Development & Model Configuration

atmos ocean

CM2.0dob: spring ‘04

CM2.1dob: fall ‘04

Each of the two sets of IPCC experiments represents ~2,600 model years of integrations.

The CM2.0 & CM2.1 experiments required 30% to 60% of GFDL’s computing resources for ~12 months and generated >300 TB of model output files.


oceanatmos landocean sea ice

Code Development & Model Configuration

atmos ocean

CM2.0dob: spring ‘04

CM2.1dob: fall ‘04

done: Oct ‘04 done: Jan ‘05

GFDL In-House

Research & Model

Evaluations

(part of GFDL’s

“traditional” science)

Share CM2.x output with

authorsof US

Climate Change Science Program

(US CCSP) reports

Ship CM2.x model output

to IPCC/PCMDI archive in Livermore CA(~4TB CM2.x data shipped)>300 IPCC WG1 registered

users

CM2.x Model Output Files*** Standardization of Output

Files ***

Making CM2.x model output & documentation accessible via the GFDL Data

Portalnomads.gfdl.noaa.gov (no registration,

wider range of users)

http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/








Improving Predictions over North America: Accomplishments

- NAME (North American Monsoon Experiment)

- LDAS (Land Data Assimilation System)

- Land model in NCEP Climate Forecast System

- Drought monitoring and prediction (NIDIS)

- EPIC (East Pacific Investigation of Climate)

- Transition of research to NCEP and NWS operations

- North America Regional Reanalysis

- Climate-based hydrologic forecasts

- the NCEP CFS


Elements of a Comprehensive Ongoing Analysis

• Enhancing and managing the observational database– Archeology, new sensors, continuity and feedback

• Ongoing analysis:– Continually update most recent reanalyses (CDAS)

– Use OSEs and OSSEs to document impact of continuing observing system changes

– Provide feedback to observing system developers/operators

• Periodic reanalyses– Post 1979 reanalysis with goal of continuous climate record

– Post 1950 reanalysis with same goal

– Post 1850 surface NH oriented

– Continental-scale regional reanalysis at very high spatial resolution

• Stewardship and dissemination – Ensure that the products are useable

• Applied research– Develop improved methods and products

– Intended to solve problems identified within program

STATUS: MERRA (NASA satellite-era effort) moving forwardNOAA planning begun

PRIORITIES: National and International CoordinationProgram Management in NOAA


Regional climate models have been developed to explore biases seen in Global climate models

IPRC ROAMTMI

GFDL-CM2.1 MPI/ECHAM

COUPLED MODELING: State of the art global coupled models (top panels) exhibit biases in the mean state such as a double ITCZ and west-shifted cold tongue, when compared to TMI satellite observations (bottom left). One way to explore whether these biases arise from local or global processes is to construct a regional coupled model forced at the lateral boundaries with prescribed data. Preliminary investigations with a regional model (bottom right) show a significant reduction in bias.

SST (°C) contours, wind vectors, and precipitation (mm/day color)


EPIC is leading to new parameterizations and improved general circulation models of the eastern tropical Pacific

Infrared brightness temperature can be predicted based on surface wind speed and convective inhibition

Derived formula for cloud base drizzle rate useful for GCMs

Raymond et al. (2004)

Comstock et al. (2004)

Chlorophyll based parameterization of solar transmission has been implemented in NCAR CCM and is superior to Jerlov type.


1. Downscaling

2. VIC hydrologic simulations

UW Experimental West-wide hydrologic prediction system

ESP as baseline fcst

Real-timeEnsemble Forecasts

Ensemble Hindcasts(for bias-correction

and preliminaryskill assessment) West-wide forecast products

streamflow

soil moisture, snowpack

tailored to application sectors

fire, power, recreation

* ESP extended streamflow prediction(unconditional climate forecastsrun from current hydrologic state)

climate model output

CPC official forecasts

(after Lettenmaier)


NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook


NOAA/CPC Climate ServicesNOAA/CPC Climate ServicesMajor Product CategoriesMajor Product Categories

Pre-1994Pre-1994 1994-991994-99 2000-2000-0606

Expert Assessments (e.g., Hazards, ENSO,Expert Assessments (e.g., Hazards, ENSO, 44 6 6 8 8 Drought, Degree Days, published Bulletins)Drought, Degree Days, published Bulletins)

Outlooks (e.g., Week-2, Monthly, Seasonal,Outlooks (e.g., Week-2, Monthly, Seasonal, 44 7 7 10 10 Drought, Hurricane Season, UV, Heat)Drought, Hurricane Season, UV, Heat)

Data, Monitoring, & “Nowcasting”Data, Monitoring, & “Nowcasting” 88 1212 16 16 (e.g., Reanalysis, Ozone, AO/NAO, ENSO)(e.g., Reanalysis, Ozone, AO/NAO, ENSO)

Partnerships (e.g., NOAA Lab MOUs, EPA,Partnerships (e.g., NOAA Lab MOUs, EPA, 44 7 7 11 11 USDA, NASA, IRI, USAID)USDA, NASA, IRI, USAID)

Note: Each major category/example/count above can represent a complexNote: Each major category/example/count above can represent a complex

set of dozens of climate and weather products unique to NOAA. set of dozens of climate and weather products unique to NOAA.

For example, the on-line ClimateFor example, the on-line Climate Diagnostics Bulletin aloneDiagnostics Bulletin alone

presents over 70 product.presents over 70 product.


PrototypePrototype

8-14-day8-14-day

Forecast fromForecast from

The The

North North

American American

Ensemble Ensemble

Forecast Forecast

SystemSystem

(NAEFS)(NAEFS)

The U.S., Canada and Mexico, through NAEFS, will develop a standard set of basic products from calibrated models. End products derived from basic products will be developed to suit each country’s requirements. A very early version of one such end product, developed at CPC, is shown above.

EXPERIMENTAL8-14-DAY FORECAST500-HPA HEIGHTS AND2-M TEMPERATURE (DEG F)MADE DEC 02, 2005VALID DEC 10-16, 2005


Reanalysis (OACS) is Essential

Given continuing improvement in our understanding of Given continuing improvement in our understanding of climate observations and the need for long time series, climate observations and the need for long time series, periodic reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate periodic reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing efforts. NOAA, NASA, and DOE collaboration is essential.efforts. NOAA, NASA, and DOE collaboration is essential.

Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate SystemWorkshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado

National and international National and international coordination, and an OACS, coordination, and an OACS, are essential to a successful are essential to a successful

GEOSS program GEOSS program

Climate Predictions and Projections Ants Leetmaa Program Manager Contributions from: Jin Huang, Ming...

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