Climate Policy & Economic Prosperity
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Climate Policy & Economic Prosperity: Can we have our cake and eat it too? Thank you to our Sponsors: David B. Layzell, PhD, FRSC. Professor and Director, Canadian Energy Systems Analysis Research (CESAR) Initiative, Univ. of Calgary. [email protected] 403 220-5161 www.cesarnet.ca Canadian Academy of Engineers - AGM Calgary - June 18, 2018 James Meadowcroft, PhD. Professor & CRC in Governance for Sustainable Dev’t, Dept Political Science & School of Public Policy & Admin., Carleton University, Ottawa, ON [email protected] 613 520-2600 X 2214 CRC IN GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Transcript of Climate Policy & Economic Prosperity
ClimatePolicy&EconomicProsperity:Canwehaveourcakeandeatittoo?
Thankyoutoour
Sponsors:
DavidB.Layzell,PhD,FRSC.ProfessorandDirector,CanadianEnergySystemsAnalysisResearch(CESAR)Initiative,[email protected]
CanadianAcademyofEngineers-AGMCalgary-June18,2018
JamesMeadowcroft,PhD.Professor&CRCinGovernanceforSustainableDev’t,DeptPoliticalScience&SchoolofPublicPolicy&Admin.,CarletonUniversity,Ottawa,[email protected]
CRCINGOVERNANCEFORSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT
Canada’sClimateChangeChallenge
Energy–Transportation
1990 2010 20300
200
400
600
800
GHGEmission
s(M
tCO2e/yr)
Year 2040
Energy–Stationary
Energy–Fugitive
205020202000
Ind.proc.&prod.Use
Agriculture
Agriculture Waste
ModifiedfromECCC2018(Draft)NationalInventoryReport
EnergySystems(81%)
2009Copenhagen1997Kyoto
Commitment
2015ParisCommitments
FailedFailed
ThisrequiresTRANSFORMATIVE-EVENDISRUPTIVE-SYSTEMSCHANGE
Canadianswanttoachievethiswhile:! Enhancingeconomicprosperity;
! GrowingtheCdnpopulation.
" Usefultools,buttheyarenotcapableofachievingthe2015Paristargets;
HowtoAchieveSystemsChange?
CURRENTCLIMATEPOLICYTOOLS:# CarbonPricing# Regulations# Incentives
…Forasignificantproportionofthepopulation,theclimatechangethreatisnotasufficientlycompellingreasontomaketransformative,systems-levelchanges.
WHY?
WeLiveinaTimeofTransformative/DisruptiveChange
SpreadofP
rodu
ctsintoUSHou
seho
lds
FromCoxandAlm,2016.OnwardandUpward.O’NeilCentreforGlobalMarkets&Freedom,SMU
Notincludedhere:" Media" Retail" Music" Images/printing" Telecommunications
" Movies" Books" Banking
Howcantheforcesoftransformative/disruptivechangebeharnessedtoaddresssocietalobjectives(includingGHGs)?
Outline
1. TheTransitionsPathwaysInitiative:# DirectingDisruption:Anewevidence-basedapproachto
climatepolicymaking
2. TransportationasanExample
3. Conclusions4. Discussion
TheTransitionsPathwaysInitiative
0
200
400
600
800Canada’s 2015 GHG Emissions
Fossil Fuel Industries
Supply Chain
Personal Mobility
Energy Using Ind.
Buildings
Bio-systems
Electricity Generation
MtC
O2e/yr
722 $
Data
Compile&assessdataon:• flowsofenergy&materials;
• GHGs,• Socio-economics;• Demanddrivers;• Etc…
Problems
Disruptors
• Whatworks?• Whatdoesn’t?• Why?
Identifytechnology,businessmodel&socialinnovationscapableofaddressingproblems.
Vision
…forhowdisruptiveinnovationscouldbestaddressthe‘problems’
Pathways
Howtoget‘there’from‘here’?
ScenarioModels
ModeltheproposedPathway(s)toensuretheyare‘Credible,Compelling&Capable’
EXPERT&STAKEHOLDERINTERACTION
PATHWAYSmustbe:1. CREDIBLE
" Technically,economically,socially
2. COMPELLING" Desirablebykey
stakeholders
EXISTINGSYSTEM
NEWSYSTEMPATHWAY
3.CAPABLEofachievingthetarget.
PATHWAY:Thetiming&magnitudeofspecifictechnology,infrastructure&behaviourchangesneededtomovefromonesystemtoanother.
DefiningPathways
TheTransitionsPathwaysInitiative
0
200
400
600
800Canada’s 2015 GHG Emissions
Fossil Fuel Industries
Supply Chain
Personal Mobility
Energy Using Ind.
Buildings
Bio-systems
Electricity Generation
MtC
O2e/yr
722 $
Data
Compile&assessdataon:• flowsofenergy&materials;
• GHGs,• Socio-economics;• Demanddrivers;• Etc…
EXPERT&STAKEHOLDERINTERACTION
Problems
Disruptors
• Whatworks?• Whatdoesn’t?• Why?
Identifytechnology,businessmodel&socialinnovationscapableofaddressingproblems.
Vision
…forhowdisruptiveinnovationscouldbestaddressthe‘problems’
Pathways
Howtoget‘there’from‘here’?
ScenarioModels
ModeltheproposedPathway(s)toensuretheyare‘Credible,Compelling&Capable’
“Wecannotpredictthefuture,butwecaninventit.”DennisGabor,NobelPrize(Physics)(1971)
Products
AdvicetoDecisionMakers
Interveneinsocietaldebate(reports,briefings,convening,media)
SpinoutConsortia(ideallyindustryled)
Identifyinnovationpriorities
Insteadoffocusingnarrowlyon:
ClimateChange…Expandthescopetoaddress:
SystemsChange…
…Policyandinvestmentdecisionscanbeusedtoencourage,discourage,nudgeorotherwise‘directdisruptiveforces’toachievesocietalobjectives:
" GHGreductions
" EconomicProsperity
" Improvedhealthoutcomes
" QualityofLife
" …
TheTransitionsPathwaysInitiative
Outline
1. TheTransitionsPathwaysInitiative:# DirectingDisruption:Anewevidence-basedapproachto
climatepolicymaking
2. TransportationasanExample
3. Conclusions4. Discussion
TransportationasanExample
0
200
400
600
800Canada’s 2015 GHG Emissions
Fossil Fuel Industries
Supply Chain
Personal Mobility
Energy Using Ind.
Buildings
Bio-systems
Electricity Generation
MtC
O2e/yr
722 $
WHY?" ~24%ofCanada’sGHGemissions;" Createsdemandforoil:% Contributesanother~23%ofCdnGHGs(incl.exports);% Transportationfuels=73%ofeachbarrelofoil;% Albertaoilprovidesfuelsequivalentto9XABdemand.
" Definesurbanform(esp.Sprawl);" 100+yearoldecosystempoisedfordisruptive
change.
Transportationisthecritical‘Linchpin’inCanada’sGHGmanagementstrategy:
" Accidents(est.@$62B/yrin2007)" Congestion(~4700per-yrslost/wkday)" Airpollution(est.@$36B/yrin2007)" GHGEmissions(WtW~225MtCO2e/yr)
" Valueformoney(persLDVcost$13.8K/ABfamily/yr,butusedonly~4%oftime)
" Parking(4+spaces/veh,est.$46B/yr)" UrbanSprawl
" Labourshortage/costs(i.e.truckdrivers)" Loadfactor/truckuserate" Maintenance/operationalcosts
ALL
PERSONAL
MOBILITY
FREIGHT
PROBLEMSINTRANSPORTATION
TECH
NOLO
GIES " Autonomousvehicles
" Carsharing" Electricvehicles" Bigdata/Digitalconnectivity" Faster/cheapercomputers" AI/robotics/drones
BUSINESS
MODELS
" MobilityasaService" PhysicalInternet" Consolidationofcarriers
SOCIAL " Generationalvalues
" Environmentalconcerns" Governmentpolicies
DISRUPTIVEINNOVATIONS
Data
Problems
Disruptors
Vision
TransitionPathways
ScenarioModels
" Accidents(est.@$62B/yrin2007)" Congestion(~4700per-yrslost/wkday)" Airpollution(est.@$36B/yrin2007)" GHGEmissions(WtW~225MtCO2e/yr)
" Valueformoney(persLDVcost$13.8K/ABfamily/yr,butusedonly~4%oftime)
" Parking(4+spaces/veh,est.$46B/yr)" UrbanSprawl
" LabourShortage(I.e.truckdrivers)" Loadfactor/Truckuserate" Maintenance/Operationalcosts
ALL
PERSONAL
MOBILITY
FREIGHT
PROBLEMSINTRANSPORTATION
TECH
NOLO
GIES " Autonomousvehicles
" Carsharing" Electricvehicles" Bigdata/Digitalconnectivity" Faster/cheapercomputers" AI/robotics/drones
BUSINESS
MODELS
" MobilityasaService" PhysicalInternet" Consolidationofcarriers
SOCIAL " Generationalvalues
" Environmentalconcerns" Governmentpolicies
DISRUPTIVEINNOVATIONS
Data
Problems
Disruptors
Vision
TransitionPathways
ScenarioModels
BuildingVisio
nsfor
Credible,Com
pelling&Cap
ablePathwa
ys
" Manypossible
pathwaystha
t–ifdeploye
dstrategicall
y–shouldbe
abletomitigate
climatechange,
improvehealth
outcomesand
enhanceeco
nomicprosperity;
" Ideally,the
morepromisingv
isionswillbe
backedbyco
mpanies,
environmentalg
roups,found
ations,inves
tors&gover
nments.
PersonalMobility FreightTransport&theElectricalGrid
Data
Problems
Disruptors
Vision
TransitionPathways
ScenarioModels
BatteryElectricVehicles
ConnectedVehicles
AutonomousVehicles
SharedVehicles
Mobility-as-a-Service(MaaS)
AhighlevelviewofCESAR’svisionsfortransformingtransportationinawaythatenhanceseconomicprosperitywhileaddressingclimatechange:
Historical(from1990)databyprovinceintegratedintoacoherentenergysystemsexploratorysimulationmodel.! Stockandflowof‘infrastructure’;! 1000’softechnologieswithenergyandmaterialflows;! Processemissions&otherbyproducts! Technology&behaviouralchoicesdefineprojectionsto2060+
Sources Harvesting Technologies Currencies
Service Technologies Services
Interconversion & Storage Technologies
Fossilfuels,Renewables
Infrastructure,andconversiontechnologies
Gasoline,diesel,electricity,hydrogen,etc
Cars,refrigerators,lights,furnaces,etc
Mobility,spaceheating,lighting,‘things’
CESARhasbeenworkingwithwhatIf?TechnologiesInc(Ottawa)tomakeourdataandthemodelopenaccess/opensourcewithinthenextyear.
Data
Problems
Disruptors
VisionTransitionPathways
ScenarioModels
CanadianEnergySystemsSimulationModel
0
10
20
30
2000 2020 2040 2060
Milli
ons V
ehic
les
PLD Vehicles ESAC
Vehicles
Billion
km/yr
#Vehicles0
200
400
600
800
PLDVehicles
ESACVehicles
BAUScenar
ioKmTravelled
BAUScenario
1ESACreplaces6PLDvehicles
Non-commuter
Commuter
Intercity
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
2000 2020 2040 2060
MbblOil/day
OilDemand
BAUScenario
0
40
80
MtC
O2e/Year
LifecycleGHGEmissions
BAUScenario
PLDVehicles
Combustion
Upstreamoil
ESACUpstreamelectricity
Mobility-as-a-Service
Note:" ThisScenariorunwasabletoachievea~90%reductionin2005levelsofGHGemissionsby2050.
Data
Problems
Disruptors
VisionTransitionPathways
ScenarioModels
Outline
1. TheTransitionsPathwaysInitiative:# DirectingDisruption:Anewevidence-basedapproachto
climatepolicymaking
2. TransportationasanExample
3. Conclusions4. Discussion
Conclusions
WHYBUILDTRANSITIONPATHWAYSFOCUSEDONSYSTEMSCHANGE?
1. Expandsthetoolsthatcanbeusedtosupport/managethekindoftransformative/disruptivechangesneededtoaddresssocietalgoals;
2. Potentialtoidentifycredible,compellingpathwaysthatarecapableofmeetingsocietalgoals(including,butarenotlimitedto,GHGmanagement);
3. Providesgovernment/industrywithmetricstomeasureprogresstowardsgoal;
4. Avoidinvestmentsin‘dead-end’pathways;
5. ContributestotheInnovationagenda;6. Hopefully,elevatetheclimatechangediscussionabovethepoliticallevel(toan
emergingconsensusonpositivesystemschange,ratherthan‘Ctaxes’and‘pipelines’);
Discussion
Data
Problems
Disruptors
Vision
TransitionPathways
ScenarioModelsAdvicetoDecisionMakers
Interveneinsocietaldebate(reports,briefings,convening,media)
SpinoutConsortia(ideallyindustryled)
Identifyinnovationpriorities
EXPERT&STAKEHOLDERINTERACTION
DavidB.Layzell,PhD,FRSC.ProfessorandDirector,CanadianEnergySystemsAnalysisResearch(CESAR)Initiative,Univ.ofCalgary,Calgary,AB
JamesMeadowcroft,PhD
Professor&CRCinGovernanceforSustainableDev’t,DeptPoliticalScience&SchoolofPublicPolicy&Admin.,CarletonUniversity,Ottawa,[email protected]
TransitionsPathwaysInitiative
