Climate-FVS Version 0.1
description
Transcript of Climate-FVS Version 0.1
USING THE FOREST VEGETATION SIMULATOR TO MODEL STAND DYNAMICS UNDER THE ASSUMPTION OF CHANGING
CLIMATE
Climate-FVSVersion 0.1
Developed by :Nicholas L. Crookston, USDA-FS, RMRS, Moscow, IDGary E. Dixon, (Retired) USDA-FS, FMSC, Fort Collins, COGerald E. Rehfeldt, (Retired) USDA-FS, RMRS, Moscow, ID
Presentation Road Map
Background on Base FVS
Background on Climate Models
Climate-FVS Architecture
Climate-FVS “How to”
Description of FVS
FVS is a distance-independent, individual-tree forest growth model widely used in the United States to support forest management decision-making
Individual stands are the basic projection unit and projections are dependent on interactions among trees within stands, as well as site and stand conditions.
FVS allows users to compare management scenarios, to meet landowner objectives.
Extensions to FVS model the impact of disturbance-causing agents (fire, insects, and disease)
Variants of FVS
The component models differ depending on the geographic region represented by regionally specific model variants
Coefficients are estimated using available data from the variant’s geographic region
Each variant is a self-contained program executable written in FORTRAN (FORmula TRANslation)
Under development
FVS Basic Operation
FVS needs a keyword file to runKeywords are mnemonic words with
associated data that provide information to FVS
Keywords are used to enter stand and tree information describe management treatments control the printing of output adjust model estimates
Suppose
prepares the
keyword file for
you and
executes the
FVS variant of
choice
Processing Sequence
Initialize Stand
Simulation
Individual Tree Growth
(DBH & HT)Mortality
Fire and Fuels Adjustments
Crown Change Regeneration
Performs Cutting Activities
Report ProjectedConditions13 2
Insect and Pathogen Adjustments
End Stand Simulation
Growth Cycle
Prior to Projection
General Circulation Models
Canadian Center of Climate Modeling and Analysis
CGCM3-A2 CGCM3-B1 CGCM3-A1B
Met Office Hadley Centre –UK (HADMC3) HADMC3-A2 HADMC3-B2
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory -Princeton University, NOAA Research (GFDLCM21)
GFDLCM21-A2 GFDLCM21-B1
Emission Scenarios
Example of predicted changes in climate
Example of Viability Scores
Viability Scores* Location on Gifford Pinchot NFCODES: PSME TSHE PIPO
1990 0.973 0.96 0.376
2030 0.96 0.656 0.29
2060 0.857 0.236 0.546
2090 0.877 0.131 0.596
* Lat: 46.67, Long: 121.54, Elev: 2583, based on Hadley A2 Scenario
Douglas-fir climate profile-125°
-120°
-120°
-115°
-115°
-110°
-110°
-105°
-105°
35° 35°
40° 40°
45° 45°
stays
newrecede
Douglas-firclimate profile
location change
(current to 2060)
Climate-FVS: Architecture
Base FVS assumes site is constant over time, this assumption is not tenable under changing climate.
The current structure of FVS to apply management has not changed
Climate-FVS does NOT contain a climate model, it uses species viability scores.
The species viability scores are for 75 western U.S. species predicted from seven future climate scenarios (presently based on Rehfeldt et al, but user could use any source of scores)
Viability scores are used to compute mortality rates and modify FVS-predicted growth rates.
Changes to the model under Climate-FVS
Carrying capacity may changeAdditional species specific mortalitySpecies Establishment changesGrowth is impacted
by genetics by site quality changes
Site Carrying Capacity
Changes maximum density as a function of climate.Presently FVS uses Maximum SDI or BA as a
measure of carrying capacity and uses it to compute density related mortality.
These maximum densities are typically species based and the maximum for the stand varies based on the basal area-weighted average maximum
Climate-FVS computes a proportional change in carry capacity, where the viability scores are used instead of basal area-weighted to compute maximum density.
Additional Species Specific Mortality
Additional species specific mortality is applied to all species with a viability score below 0.50.
As the viability score decreases, the mortality rate increases.
The mortality rate is proportional to the viability score.
Species Establishment
Climate-FVS will establish 500 seedling/acre when stand density falls below a stocking threshold
The four most viable species will be regenerated
The number of trees of each species will be apportioned based on the relative viability scores
The consequence is that more trees of the most viable species will be regenerated
If no species are viable, none are regenerated.
Growth
Site quality If the stand site quality changes due to climatic
change, growth will be affected. The Annual Dryness Index (ADI) is used as an
indicator of site quality change. As ADI increases or decreases compared to contemporary, it proportionally affects Site Quality.
Tree genetics Trees growing on sites they are adapted for grow
faster than those growing on site they are maladapted for.
Transfer distances, seed zones
Growth modifiedbased on Seed Transfer Distance
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250 MAT at seed source: -2 CMAT at seed source: 2 CMAT at seed source: 4 CMAT at seed source: 8 C
Mean temp. of the coldest month transfer distance (⁰C)moved to colder climates moved to warmer climates
3-yr
Ht
(cm
)
Leites , L. (preliminary work, Univ. of Idaho)
How To Run Climate-FVS
Obtain climate executable from FMSCAdditional input file needed that contains
viability scoresOne additional keyword is mandatory
(CLIMDATA), that specifies the location of the viability scores files, and specifies the GCM scenario to be used.
Four other option keywords can me used to change the assumptions on climate change impacts on growth, mortality, and regeneration.
Example of additional input file needed
A source of the climate and species viability data file is at this web address: http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/customData/fvs_data.php.
Filename: FVSClimAttrs.csv
Four Optional Keywords
AutoEstb: Signal that Climate-FVS automatic establishment logic is turned on and that the base FVS automatic establishment features are turned off.
GrowMult :Specify a species-specific adjustment of the growth-rate multiplier computed by Climate-FVS.
MortMult :Specify a species-specific mortality multiplier.
MxDenMlt: Specify an adjustment of the maximum density multiplier computed by Climate-FVS.
Climate-FVS Reports
Main Output File – Options Selected by input lists viability scores by species
Climate Reports none yet developed see effects in standard output reports
Compare Climate Scenarios
Compare Species by Climate Scenarios
Compare Scenarios
98%
1% 1%
Species Composition by Basal Area 2006
Live DF Live RC Live WH
BASE
99%
0% 1%
Species Composition by Basal Area 2096
Live DF Live RC Live WH
99%
0% 1%
HADMC3_B2 Species Composition by Basal
Area 2096 Live DF Live RC Live WH Live GF Live WP
100%
0% 0%
HADMC3_A2 Species Composition by Basal
Area 2096 Live DF Live GF Live WP
GCM Scenario
Climate-FVS
Nicholas L. Crookston
USDA- Forest ServiceRocky Mountain Research
Station,Moscow, [email protected]
Forest Management Service CenterUSDA- Forest ServiceFort Collins, [email protected]
Questions?