Climate-Flow Forecast Research Motivations
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Transcript of Climate-Flow Forecast Research Motivations
Climate-Flow Forecast Research Motivations
ISI climate predictability is relatively limited in our region (CB)
water management in 7 states depends on regional climate and flow forecasts
plot -- JFM Precip correlation with Nino 3.4, lag 1 season
Linkage to Water/Energy ManagementLinkage to Water/Energy ManagementAverage contribution to Lake Powell Apr-Jul inflow:
Green River 34%Colorado River 50%San Juan River 13%
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ReclamationMidterm-Probabilistic Model
StakeholderAllocations
Graphic from Dr. Katrina Grantz, Bureau of Reclamation
In development… CFS-based flow forecasts for Reclamation water management
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Example of Experimental Ensembles Example of Experimental Ensembles
GFS and/or CFS based ensembles: CBRFC & CNRFC experimental products updated daily
GFS CFS
Contact: Andy Wood ([email protected])
Flow into Lake Powell
Partners in Water Management
ReclamationColorado Basin
Streamflow Forecasting Research
Development Operations
CBRFC
Academic Researchers
Gillies & Wang, USUTroch, UAPiechota, UNLVMoradkani, PSURajagopalan, CSU Wolter, CU
Others: Becky Smith (student, CSU); Sponsors (CWCB) and Consultant (RTI)
SI/Y2 Climate and Streamflow Forecasting WorkshopNOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, UT – March 21-22, 2011
Organized by Sponsored by CBRFC Colorado Water Conservation Board Reclamation NIDIS
Testbed Data
Climate-Flow Forecast Needs NWS Hydrology strategy depends on REFORECASTS
a decade of experience showing that we must calibrate climate/wx forecasts to our hydrology model input characteristics
water management decisions affected by long persistence months to seasons: land surface storages (soil, snow) years: artificial reservoirs, groundwater ISI to multi-year sequences are critical to stakeholders historical analogs are informative – hindcasts serve this purpose too
What about downscaling/calibration, skill? hydrologists have been very active efforts by climate forecast producers will be appreciated, but…
skill assessments must be tailored to user scales, predictands of interest…probably cannot all be done by NCEP.
many users (such as RFCs) may downscale products themselves provide raw forecast-component data as well as semi-calibrated/MM-
combination.
When data become available, engage with informed users from different sectors to firm up products / services