Climate, Fire and Air Quality Climate Impacts Group June 1, 2006.
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Transcript of Climate, Fire and Air Quality Climate Impacts Group June 1, 2006.
Climate, Fire andAir Quality
Climate Impacts GroupClimate Impacts Group
June 1, 2006June 1, 2006
Research Team
USDA Forest ServiceUSDA Forest Service Don McKenzie, Susan O’Neill, Sim LarkinDon McKenzie, Susan O’Neill, Sim Larkin
WSU Laboratory for Atmospheric ResearchWSU Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Jack Chen, Brian Lamb, Jeremy Avise, Joe VaughanJack Chen, Brian Lamb, Jeremy Avise, Joe Vaughan
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Eric Salathe, Cliff Mass, Jeremy Littell, Robert Eric Salathe, Cliff Mass, Jeremy Littell, Robert
NorheimNorheim
National Center for Atmospheric ResearchNational Center for Atmospheric Research Alex Guenther, Christine WiedinmyerAlex Guenther, Christine Wiedinmyer
Goals and Funding Support
USDA Forest Service HAZE ProjectUSDA Forest Service HAZE ProjectAnalyze impacts of Fire Emissions on Analyze impacts of Fire Emissions on
Regional Haze at Class I Wilderness Areas in Regional Haze at Class I Wilderness Areas in terms of a Changing Climate.terms of a Changing Climate.
EPA Science To Achieve Results (STAR) EPA Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Project (Grant # RD83096201)Project (Grant # RD83096201) Impact of Global Change on US and Impact of Global Change on US and
Northwest Air Quality, with particular Northwest Air Quality, with particular emphasis on the role of fire, biogenic emphasis on the role of fire, biogenic emissions, and Asian emissions. emissions, and Asian emissions.
Class I Wilderness Areas
Visibility Degradation
Fort Collins, Fort Collins, COCO
Bext = Bext = 70/Mm70/Mm
Occurred Occurred twice since twice since 20002000
WinHaze WinHaze v2.9.6v2.9.6
Modeling Domains
Right: CMAQ domains at 36 and nested 12 km resolutions with 17 layers
Left: PCM and MOZART2 global model domain at 2.8o by 2.8o resolution with 18 layers.
Modeling Approach
Climate/Meteorology Emissions
Air Quality Model
• Visibility
• Particulate Matter
• Ozone Formation
• Wet & Dry Deposition
Modeling Approach
PCM
MM5
MCIP CMAQ SMOKE
MOZART2
FSB (Fire)MEGAN (Biogenics)NEI/EDGAR(Anthropogenic)
Global(IPCC A2)
Regional
Preprocessfor IC/BC
Climate/Meteorology Emissions
Air Quality
Modeling ApproachGlobal Scale
Parallel Climate Model (PCM)Parallel Climate Model (PCM)Simulations provided by NCAR Climate and Simulations provided by NCAR Climate and
Global Dynamics DivisionGlobal Dynamics DivisionModel of Ozone and Related Chemical Model of Ozone and Related Chemical
Tracers (MOZART) v2 with AerosolsTracers (MOZART) v2 with AerosolsSimulations provided by Jean-Francois Simulations provided by Jean-Francois
Lamarque (NCAR Atmospheric Chemistry Lamarque (NCAR Atmospheric Chemistry Division)Division)
Provide IC/BCProvide IC/BCAsian transport impactsAsian transport impacts
Modeling ApproachGlobal Scale
IPCC SRES A2 IPCC SRES A2 Scenario – Scenario – Business as Business as UsualUsual worst projected worst projected
emissionsemissions heterogeneous heterogeneous
worldworld regional self-regional self-
reliancereliance large global large global
populationpopulation
Modeling Approach
PCM
MM5
MCIP CMAQ SMOKE
MOZART2
FSB (Fire)MEGAN (Biogenics)NEI/EDGAR(Anthropogenic)
Global(IPCC A2)
Regional
Preprocessfor IC/BC
Climate/Meteorology Emissions
Air Quality
Modeling ApproachRegional Scale
Meteorology – MM5Meteorology – MM5 EmissionsEmissions
Anthropogenic emissions from EDGAR (future) and Anthropogenic emissions from EDGAR (future) and 1999 NEI (current)1999 NEI (current)
Fire Emissions from historical db and Fire Scenario Fire Emissions from historical db and Fire Scenario Builder (FSB).Builder (FSB).
Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN)Nature (MEGAN)
Biogenic emissions, 1-km resolution, multi-scaleBiogenic emissions, 1-km resolution, multi-scale Canopy scale model (vs. leaf level)Canopy scale model (vs. leaf level) Accounts for: light, leaf area index, solar angle, temperature, Accounts for: light, leaf area index, solar angle, temperature,
RH, wind speed, soil moisture.RH, wind speed, soil moisture.
Fire Emissions Modeling
Use heat released from Use heat released from the fire to calculate the fire to calculate plume rise to allocate plume rise to allocate emissions vertically in emissions vertically in the atmosphere.the atmosphere.
A portion of the fire A portion of the fire emissions are treated as emissions are treated as smoldering emissions smoldering emissions and allocated to the and allocated to the lowest model layer.lowest model layer.
MM5
Fire Scenario Builder
BlueSky-EM• FCCS• EPM
SMOKE
CAPENFDRS • Fuel Moistures
FCCS 1-km GIS layer
PM2.5 Emissions from Fire
2045 - 2055 1990 - 1999
MEGAN: Biogenic EmissionsTerpenes – Terpenes –
Particulate Matter Particulate Matter FormationFormation
Isoprene – Ozone Isoprene – Ozone ChemistryChemistry
Modeling ApproachRegional Scale
MCIPMCIP SMOKESMOKE Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ)
modeling systemmodeling system OzoneOzone Primary emission and secondary formation of Primary emission and secondary formation of
AerosolsAerosols VisibilityVisibility Gridded eulerian modelGridded eulerian model Wet and Dry DepositionWet and Dry Deposition
Project Status & Details SimulationsSimulations
Current Climate 1990 – 1999Current Climate 1990 – 1999 Future Climate 2045 – 2054Future Climate 2045 – 2054
Computing RequirementsComputing Requirements Two 20 node LINUX clusters available (WSU, FS)Two 20 node LINUX clusters available (WSU, FS) MM5: 2 TB per decade, 36 km domainMM5: 2 TB per decade, 36 km domain CMAQ: 1 TB per decade, 36 km domainCMAQ: 1 TB per decade, 36 km domain
StatusStatus 36 km current climate done (MM5 and CMAQ)36 km current climate done (MM5 and CMAQ) 36 km future climate – MM5 done, July only for CMAQ36 km future climate – MM5 done, July only for CMAQ Incorporating FSB Fire Emission Inventory in to future Incorporating FSB Fire Emission Inventory in to future
climate case.climate case. Starting MM5 12 km domain simulation (current and Starting MM5 12 km domain simulation (current and
future)future)
MM5 2m TemperatureCurrent and Future Decades
Boundary Condition Analysis
Current Decade EvaluationSurface Ozone Concentrations
Current Decade EvaluationSurface Ozone Concentrations
Preliminary Results:Surface Level Ozone
8-hr Average of 10 July Months8-hr Average of 10 July Months
Current ClimateCurrent Climate Future ClimateFuture Climate
Preliminary ResultsHours/Month 8-hr O3 > 60 ppb
Current Decade Evaluation MM5 2m Temperature
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Observed MM5 Current Case MM5 Future Case
Daily Summer (J-J-A) Max. Temperature Range for Sites in PNW for 10-Yr Period(Box and Wiskers Plot representing: 10, 25, 50, 75, 90 Percentiles)