Climate Crisis – Global and African Dimensions

Mohamed Adow

Christian Aid[presented @ ATN12, Accra, August’09]

A wealthy minority of the world’s countries and corporations are the principal cause of climate change; its adverse effects fall first and

foremost on the majority that is poor. This basic and undeniable truth forms the foundation of the global climate justice movement.

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Temperature increase related to Climate Change

So if temperature has increased by 0.8°C, at least 0.7°C is due to anthropogenic (i.e. man-made emissions of greenhouse gases)

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Potential impacts according to the Stern Review

• Severe impacts in marginal Sahel region

• Small mountain glaciers disappear worldwide - potential threat to water supplies in several areas

• Coral reef ecosystems extensively and eventually irreversibly damaged

• Onset of irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet

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AR3 QUOTATION ON THE VULNERABILITY OF AFRICA

“Although Africa of all the major world regions, has contributed least to potential climate change because of its low per capita energy use and hence low greenhouse gas emissions, it is the most vulnerable continent to climate change because widespread poverty limits capacity to adapt. The ultimate socio- economic impacts will depend on the relative resilience and adaptation abilities of different social groups”.

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• “Failure to combat climate change will increase poverty and hardship in our nations, and increase the debts owed to us for excessive emissions by the developed countries”

– The LDC Group (49 countries)

• “Proposals by developed countries in the climate negotiations, on both mitigation and adaptation, are inadequate…We therefore call on developed countries to fully, effectively and immediately repay the climate debt they owe to African countries”– PACJA, AMCEN Statement

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Developing countries face Triple Crisis

• Poverty: 2.6 billion people living in income poverty, but also without many basic rights

• Climate change: The impact of a small level of global warming is already intensifying poverty

• The threat of the solution: Poor people likely to be denied their ‘right’ to use the atmosphere – the crisis of ‘false/unfair climate solutions

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… in the midst of a development crisis?

• 2 billion people without access to clean cooking fuels

• More than 1.5 billion people without electricity

• More than 1 billion have poor access to fresh water

• About 800 million people chronically undernourished

• 2 million children die per year from diarrhea

• 30,000 deaths each day from preventable diseases

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UNFCCC: The preamble

“Acknowledging the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an

effective and appropriate international response, in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities”

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The basis for fair and effective outcomes under UNFCCC

• A fair and effective solution to climate change requires a principle-based approach

• Responsibilities and capabilities should be established on the basis of:– Latest science– Equity and fairness– Relevant principles and provisions of the Convention

• A focus on climate budget/debt:– Promotes fair sharing of the Global Commons -- including the

Earth’s limited atmospheric space -- between rich and poor – Addresses adaptation, mitigation, financing and technology aspects

of climate change in a holistic manner– Provides a basis for a fair, effective and development-oriented

outcomes in Copenhagen under the Climate Convention and its Kyoto Protocol

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Repay the climate debt!

• Rich countries and corporations are the main cause of climate change

• Poor countries, communities and people are its first and worst victims

• Rich owe the poor a climate debt for:– Excessive emissions (emissions debt)– Climate harms (adaptation debt)

• Climate debt provides a science-based and principled approach to solving climate change

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A crisis of climate and development• Climate change threatens the balance of life on Earth and the survival

and prosperity of billions of people, especially the poor in developing countries

• Crops are failing, livestock dying, people are going hungry and thirsty • Oceans are rising and acidifying; ice caps and glaciers are melting;

forests, coral reefs and other ecosystems are changing or collapsing • The existence of some communities is imperilled, while others face

growing barriers to their development • Unless curbed, an impending climate catastrophe risks increasingly

violent weather, collapsing food systems, mass migration and massive human conflict

• The solutions to climate change -- unless fair and effective -- may also undermine development

• Any just solution to climate change must address these crises holistically and be fair, effective and development-oriented. To be effective, the solution to climate change must also be fair.

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Problems of the poor• Poor countries, communities and people have contributed least to the causes of

climate change, yet are among its first and worst victims:– Indigenous and local communities are harmed by changing ecosystems and threats to

traditional livelihoods

– Farmers and farming communities. In some countries rain-fed agriculture is expected to drop by up to 50% by 2020, leaving millions without food

– Women. 70% of the world’s poor are women. Women provide half of the world’s food. They are the hardest hit by climate change and must be at the heart of any solution

– Poor communities concentrated in high-risk areas, such as coastal and river flood plains, or areas prone to extreme weather are particularly at risk

– People relying on scarce water resources. Between 75 and 250 million of people are likely to face increased water stress by 2020 due to climate change

– Communities susceptible to health impacts. The health of millions of people will likely be affected through malnutrition, diseases and death and injury from extreme weather

• The poor are harmed both by climate change and by the activities -- fossil fuel extraction, deforestation, large-scale agribusiness -- that cause it

• The rights of these affected communities must be at the center of efforts to address climate change

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Responsibilities of the rich• A wealthy minority of the world’s countries, corporations and people are the

principal cause of climate change• Developed countries:

– Have consumed more than their fair share of the Earth’s atmospheric space– Emitted almost three quarters of all historical emissions– Emitted, on a per person basis, more than ten times the historical emissions of

developing countries – Are emitting, on a per person basis, more than four times the current emissions of

developing countries

• Large corporations have also played a major role:– Oil and coal (Exxon, Shell, etc)– Agribusiness (Cargill, ADM, etc))– Large-scale forestry– Automotive (GM, Ford, etc)– False solutions (Nuclear, Bio-fuels)

• Their excessive historical and current emissions occupy the atmosphere and are the main cause of current and committed future warming harming the poor

• Continued excessive emissions means the Global Commons -- including the Earth’s limited atmospheric space or “emissions budget” -- is being taken from the poor by the rich without compensation for use by the wealthiest and most polluting corporations

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The concept of climate debt

• For their excessive contribution to the causes and consequences of climate change, a rich minority owe a two-fold climate debt to the poor majority

• Emissions debt:– The rich are over-consuming the Global Commons– The poor are being denied their fair share without compensation– The rich thus owe an “emissions debt” for over-consumption of shared

atmospheric space

• Adaptation debt: – Over-consumption by the rich is the main cause of climate change– The poor are now suffering its adverse effects– The rich thus owe an “adaptation debt” for climate costs and harms

• Together the sum of these debts – emissions debt and adaptation debt – constitutes a climate debt

• Climate debt is part of a larger ecological, social and economic debt owed by the rich industrialized world to the poor majority

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Excessive use of atmospheric space: An emissions debt

• The Global Commons -- including the Earth’s atmospheric space -- are a resource to be fairly shared among all people and life

• Rich countries, corporations and people have consumed more than their fair share, causing climate change while benefiting from “cheap carbon” growth

• They now propose denying the poor a fair share of the remainder by: 1) continuing their high per-person emissions and: 2) locking the poor into low and declining per-person emissions

• Rich countries have also failed to offer the financing and technology required by developing countries to develop under the constraints of a limited global emissions budget. Rather, they propose strengthening intellectual property rights and control over technologies.

• Rich countries, in other words, are appropriating the Earth’s emissions budget for use by their wealthiest and most polluting corporations and people without compensation to the poor, who will need it in the course of their development

• Developing countries must now develop under the twin burdens of mitigating and adapting to climate change

• Excessive emissions by the rich -- denying the poor a fair share of the Global Commons -- constitutes an “emissions debt”

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Fair carbon budgetting (2)• World has only 600 g ton of carbon emission to budget between 1800 to 2500

• Given population ratio, the equitable share of annex I countries is 125 GtC of

the total 600.  Non Annex I should be allocated 475 GtC in an equitable system.

• But Annex I has already consumed (years 1800 to 2008) 240 GtC, which is

115 GtC above its fair share of 125 GtC.

• And given the scenario (global cut by 50% by 2050 and Annex I cut of 85%), Annex I will consume another 85 GtC from 2009 to 2050.

 

• Thus the total Annex I consumption is 325 GtC in all, from 1800 to 2050. 

Since its fair share is 125 GtC, there is a Carbon Debt of 200 GtC.

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Carbon budgeting

• On the other hand, if there was a fair sharing of allocation of carbon space, developing countries have a share of 475 GtC for years 1800 to 2050. 

• However the situation till now plus the scenarios if accepted for now to 2050 would mean that developing countries can in actual fact only emit  275 GtC.  Thus they are under-consuming by 200 GtC.

• However the situation till now plus the scenarios if accepted for now to 2050 would mean that developing countries can in actual fact only emit  275 GtC.  Thus they are under-consuming by 200 GtC.

 

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Actual vs Fair Carbon Budget

in gigatonne carbon

1800- 2009- Total Fair

2008 2050 Share

Annex I 240 85 325 125

Non A1 91 184 275 475

Total 331 269 600 600

Assuming 50% global cut and Annex1 cut by 85% in 1990-2050

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Historical emissions debt

• Developed countries’ historical and current excessive emissions are limiting the atmospheric space available to developing countries

• With less than twenty percent of the world’s population, they are responsible for around three quarters of historical emissions (Fig 1)

• This far exceeds their fair share on a per person equal allocation (Fig 2)

• Excessive emissions by the rich have caused climate change and denied atmospheric space to the poor, giving rise to an emissions debt

• Developed countries intend to write-off rather than repay this debt to poor countries, communities and people

Figure 1

Figure 2

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Increasing emission debt• Developed countries now seek to

appropriate a disproportionate share of the Earth’s remaining atmospheric space

• By basing their future emission allowances on their past excessive level of emissions they would deepen their emissions debt

• A wealthy minority will continue to occupy excessive space through to 2050 denying a shared resource to the poorer majority who needs it in the course of their development

• Economists value the annual “emissions budget” at over 1 trillion dollars

• The rich countries are thus proposing to take billions of dollars in shared resources from the South, without compensation

• This constitutes one of the largest distributions of wealth and resources in modern history -- to some, a form of “climate colonialism”

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Figure 4

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 Population

%

Income ($/capita)

Capacity

%Responsibility

%

RCI (obligations)

%

EU 27 7.3 30,472 28.8 22.6 25.7

EU 15 5.8 33,754 26.1 19.8 22.9

Germany 1.2 34,812 5.6 5.3 5.5

EU +12 1.5 17,708 2.7 2.8 2.7

Poland 0.6 17,222 1.0 1.2 1.1

United States 4.5 45,640 29.7 36.4 33.1

China 19.7 5,899 5.8 5.2 5.5

India 17.2 2,818 0.7 0.3 0.5

South Africa 0.7 10,117 0.6 1.3 1.0

LDCs 11.7 1,274 0.11 0.04 0.07

Annex I 18.7 30,924 75.8 78.0 76.9

Non-Annex I 81.3 5,096 24.2 22.0 23.1

High Income 15.5 36,488 76.9 77.9 77.4

Middle Income 63.3 6,226 22.9 21.9 22.4

Low Income 21.2 1,599 0.2 0.2 0.2

World 100 9,929 100% 100% 100%23

National obligations based on capacity and responsibility in 2010

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“Countries will be asked to meet different

requirements based upon their historical share

or contribution to the problem and their relative

ability to carry the burden of change. This

precedent is well established in international law,

and there is no other way to do it.”

Al Gore (New York Times Op-Ed, 7/1/2007)

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The impacts and costs of climate change: An adaptation debt

• Developed countries are principally responsible for the historical emissions contributing to current atmospheric concentrations and to current and committed future warming

• Poor countries and people who live daily with rising costs, damages and lost opportunities for development

• These impacts are the direct result of current atmospheric concentrations, which have been caused predominantly by emissions from developed countries

• Developed countries are responsible for around 90% of current and committed warming

• Developed countries are thus responsible for compensating developing countries for their contribution to the adverse effects of climate change

• Failure to honor payment of financing and compensation constitutes an an “adaptation debt” owed by the rich to poor countries, communities and people

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Implications of recent science

• Recent science suggests IPCC4AR understated extent and rate of climate change

• Emerging science suggests the world may be committed to 2.4C (in the absense of emergency efforts to cut emissions and create sinks)

• Committed warming surpasses likely “tipping points” and risks “runaway” climate change with catastrophic consequences

• Addressing this challenge requires:– Much greater efforts at mitigation: including both rapid emission reductions

and creation of sinks (e.g. ecosystem restoration)– Much greater efforts at adaptation: including emergency efforts to secure

food supplies and limit adaptation harms

• Rich countries and companies’ historical emissions are principally responsible for this committed warming

• Rich countries and corporations may thus have a greater climate debt to poor countries, communities and people than previously considered

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Climate and ecological debt

• Climate debt is part of a larger ecological, social and economic debt owed by the rich to the poor

• Many groups are calling for full payment of ecological debts, including climate debts

Source: WWF Living Planet Report

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Rich countries propose deepening rather than honoring their debts

• Rich countries aim to deepen rather than honor their debts:– They seek to take more than their fair share of the Earth’s remaining

atmospheric space without compensation– They seek to pass on the costs of adapting to climate change to developing

countries

• To advance these goals, some countries are seeking to alter the climate regime by:

– Ending rather than implementing the Kyoto Protocol (hence claims of the “post-Kyoto” regime when they are legally bound to agree a “second commitment period” under the Protocol); and/or

– Changing rather than implementing the Convention (hence calls for a “post-2012 regime” when the Bali Action Plan mandates “full, effective and sustained implementation” of the Convention)

• A number of countries also intend to use trade sanctions to impose new obligations on developing countries (e.g. Waxman-Markey), further tilting the international trading system against development

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Fair and effective outcomes in Copenhagen

• Copenhagen must deliver on two distinct negotiating mandates:– A second commitment period for Annex I countries under the Kyoto

Protocol; and– Full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention, in

accordance with the Bali Action Plan

• There is no legal basis for collapsing these mandates or ending the Kyoto Protocol, as proposed by some developed countries

• There is no legal basis for re-opening rather than implementing the Climate Convention

• Repayment of climate debt provides one means for ensuring effective emissions reductions for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol, and for implementing obligations relating to mitigation, adaptation, technology and financing under the Convention

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Implementing the Kyoto Protocol

• The Kyoto Protocol does not end in 2012• Parties are legally bound to agree a second commitment period for

Annex I countries under the Kyoto Protocol commencing in 2012 (see Article 3.9)

• In the KP negotiations the Least Developed Countries have stated that “failure to combat climate change will increase poverty and hardship in our nations, and increase the debts owed to us for excessive emissions by the developed countries”

• Four countries -- Bolivia, Malaysia, Paraguay and Venezuela -- have formally proposed climate debt as the basis for calculating Annex I countries responsibilities under the Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC/KP/CMP/2009/12)

• Sri Lanka has formally supported the four country proposal• These proposals are reflected in the texts under consideration in the

AWG-KP

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Implementing the Climate Convention

• The Bali Action Plan commits Parties to ensure the “full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention” now, up to and beyond 2012

• It calls for an “agreed outcome” and a “decision” to be adopted in Copenhagen (there is no legal mandate requiring a “post-2012 climate agreement”)

• A number of Parties -- including the Least Developed Countries and Bolivia -- have formally proposed climate debt as a basis for ensuring full implementation of the Convention

• These proposals are reflected in the revised negotiating text under consideration in the AWG-LCA (e.g. paragraphs 3, 13.4, 14.2 and 14.5)

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Proposals to repay climate debt

• These proposals provide a means to ensure a balanced outcome to the negotiations in relation to mitigation, adaptation, technology and financing

• In summary, Annex I Parties are to take on “assigned amounts” that “reflect the full extent of their historical climate debt” taking into account:

– Their responsibility, individually and jointly, for current atmospheric concentrations;

– Their historical and current per-capita emissions;– Technological, financial and institutional capacities; and– The share of global emissions required by developing countries to meet

their social and economic development needs, eradicate poverty and achieve the right to development

• The difference between their assigned amounts and their actual GHG emissions (e.g. 45% cut by 2020) shall be quantified as an increase in emissions debt; and

• This debt, in turn, shall provide the basis of fulfillment by Annex I Parties of their commitments to provide financing, technology and compensation to developing countries for mitigating and adapting to climate change

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Proposals to repay climate debt (2)

• This approach to climate debt links developed countries’:– Historical responsibilities/debts;– Emissions reduction obligations; and – Obligations for financing and technology transfer to developing countries.

• It recognizes the rights of poor countries, communities and people to a fair share of the Global Commons

• It provides a means to link obligations relating to mitigation, adaptation, financing and technology together as part of an integrated and holistic approach

• It provides a credible basis for ensuring the provision of new and additional financial resources for adaptation and mitigation

• It is science-based and based on principles of the Convention, and is now reflected in the negotiating texts in the AWG-KP (Kyoto Protocol) and AWG-LCA (Climate Convention)

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• Developed countries should play a leadership role by undertaking ambitious nationally appropriate mitigation commitments. In these actions, the key underlying principle should be aspiring to minimize and avoid impacts to the vulnerable countries. Failure to combat climate change will increase poverty and hardship in our nations, and increase the debts owed to us for excessive emissions by the developed countries.

– STATEMENT BY LESOTHO, CHAIR OF THE LDC GROUP, ON BEHALF OF LDCS AT JUNE 2009 BONN CLIMATE CHANGE TALKS

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• We call upon the Parties to the UNFCCC to recognize the importance of our Traditional Knowledge and practices shared by Indigenous Peoples in developing strategies to address climate change. To address climate change we also call on the UNFCCC to recognize the historical and ecological debt of the Annex 1 countries in contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. We call on these countries to pay this historical debt. To address climate change we also call on the UNFCCC to recognize the historical and ecological debt of the Annex 1 countries in contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. We call on these countries to pay this historical debt.

– ANCHORAGE DECLARATION AGREED BY INDIGENOUS REPRESENTATIVES FROM THE ARCTIC, NORTH AMERICA, ASIA, PACIFIC, LATIN AMERICA, AFRICA, CARIBBEAN AND RUSSIA

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• By their excessive emissions, this wealthy minority has appropriated the majority of the Earth’s atmospheric space, which belongs equally to all and should be fairly shared. For their disproportionate contribution to the causes of climate change – denying developing countries their fair share of atmospheric space – the developed countries have run up an “emissions debt”. These excessive emissions, in turn, are the principal cause of the current adverse effects experienced by developing countries, particularly in Africa. For their disproportionate contribution to the effects of climate change – causing rising costs and damage in our countries that must now adapt to climate change – the developed countries have run up an “adaptation debt”. Together the sum of these debts – emissions debt and adaptation debt – constitutes the climate debt. Proposals by developed countries in the climate negotiations, on both mitigation and adaptation, are inadequate. They seek to pass on the costs of adaptation and mitigation, avoiding their responsibility to finance climate change response efforts in Africa. They also seek to write-off rather than reduce their emissions and continue their high per-capita emissions. This would deepen their debt and deny atmospheric space to the developing countries like ours, which would be asked to crowd into a small and shrinking remainder. We therefore call on developed countries to fully, effectively and immediately repay the climate debt they owe to African countries.

– STATEMENT BY PAN AFRICAN CLIMATE JUSTICE ALLIANCE (63 NGOS FROM ACROSS AFRICA)

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• As the basis of a fair and effective climate outcome we therefore call on developed countries to acknowledge and repay the full measure of their climate debt to developing countries commencing in Copenhagen. We demand that they:

– Repay their adaptation debt to developing countries by committing to full financing and compensation for the adverse effects of climate change on all affected countries, groups and people;

– Repay their emissions debt to developing countries through the deepest possible domestic reductions, and by committing to assigned amounts of emissions that reflect the full measure of their historical and continued excessive contributions to climate change; and

– Make available to developing countries the financing and technology required to cover the additional costs of mitigating and adapting to climate change, in accordance with the Climate Convention.

– STATEMENT BY OVER 230 GROUPS INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT, ENVIRONMENT, GENDER AND YOUTH ORGANIZATIONS, FAITH BASED COMMUNITIES, INDIGENOUS PEOPLES AND SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC JUSTICE MOVEMENTS IN AFRICA, ASIA, LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN, MIDDLE EAST, EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA

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Final Comments• The scientific evidence is a wake-up call. Carbon-

based growth is no longer an option.

• A rigorous, binding commitment to North-to-South flows of technology and financial assistance is critical. Domestic reductions in the North are only half of the North’s obligation.

• The alternative to something like this is a weak regime with little chance of preventing catastrophic climate change

• This is about politics, not only about equity and justice.38

THANK YOU!39