Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525...

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Transcript of Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525...

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Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 March 20, 2012 Slide 2 Class News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:2008 and 2010 Class http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action Slide 3 Project Timeline 22 March 2012 In Class Review: Each group should prepare about a 15 minute, 5 10 slides, of status of project. Projects will be in different stages, but should have a good idea of the scope and where you are going. This will be a time get some input and refine and focus. This need not be polished, but should represent vision, structure, and some essential elements of knowledge. 10 and 12 April 2012: Final presentation Slide 4 The Current Climate (Released Monthly) Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center.Climate MonitoringNational Climatic Data Center http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html State of the Climate: Global Interesting new document? OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of InactionOECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction Slide 5 Today An interim synthesis of lectures, readings, discussions Slide 6 Subjects that need covering Stabilization Military Interface to adaptation Geo-engineering Sea Level Elements of Argument Slide 7 Climate Science-Policy Relation CLIMATE SCIENCE KNOWLEDGE UNCERTAINTY POLICY PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE Slide 8 Framework Convention on Climate Change Slide 9 Dangerous climate change? Stern, 2006 Slide 10 Economics What about economics does the cost of climate change motivate the development of policy, motivate action? Stern Report What are things that link society together? Slide 11 Stern Report Considered a radical revision of climate change economics. If we dont act now it will cost between 5% and 20% of gross domestic product (an aggregate measure of economy.) Stands in contrast to many studies that usually come to numbers of closer to 1% The idea that initiation of a policy with a slow growth rate will have little impact on the economy or environment in the beginning, but will ultimately become important when the nature of expenditures is more clear. Slide 12 Global economic analysis Stern Review: Primary Web PageStern Review: Primary Web Page Stern Report: Executive SummaryStern Report: Executive Summary Nordhaus: Criticism of Stern ReportNordhaus: Criticism of Stern Report Tol and Yohe: Deconstruction of Stern ReportTol and Yohe: Deconstruction of Stern Report Slide 13 Stern Review: Criticisms Document is fundamentally political: An advocacy document. Not up to the standards of academic economic analysis Not based on empirical observations of the economy Observed discount rates Observed behavior Slide 14 Economics We see here a wide range of projected economic impacts 1 % Gross Domestic Product 20 % Gross Domestic Product Large difference strongly related to discount rate: how fast does the cost of an investment depreciate? Empirical Belief based evaluation of environment and impact on most vulnerable people Slide 15 Economics-Policy Relation ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE UNCERTAINTY POLICY Economic analysis is not the compelling catalyst to converge the development of policy at least on the global scale. Different story on the local scale. PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE Slide 16 Energy Security-Policy Relation ENERGY SECURITY KNOWLEDGE UNCERTAINTY POLICY PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE Slide 17 An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE UNCERTAINTY POLICY CLIMATE SCIENCE ENERGY PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE Slide 18 POPULATION An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE UNCERTAINTY POLICY CLIMATE SCIENCE CONSUMPTION ENERGY PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE Slide 19 Policy? As all of these pieces are brought to bear on policy, the fragmentation of those interests begins to show up in policy. Slide 20 POPULATION An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE UNCERTAINTY CLIMATE SCIENCE Fragmented Policy CONSUMPTION ENERGY PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE Slide 21 Fragmented Policy Represents the real, rational interests of different elements. short-term, long-term; local, global; poor, rich As a whole, however, does not work together, and may collectively work against, for instance, mitigation of climate change. Fragmented policy becomes, perhaps, an accelerator or more integrated, more federal or global policy. Slide 22 Impacts The knowledge that comes from climate science suggests a set of impacts Agriculture Forestry Fisheries Public health Water resources .... Slide 23 An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE UNCERTAINTY CLIMATE SCIENCE Fragmented Policy IMPACTS POPULATION CONSUMPTION ENERGY PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE Slide 24 Consideration of Impacts (1) Existing problem with existing system to address the problem Weaknesses in the system often associated with population stress, by vulnerable population, highly (anti) correlated with wealth and education Strongly dependent on extreme events, not the average Hence want to know how extreme events will change Not clearly and distinctly addressed by efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions Motivator for Kyoto like policy? Slide 25 Consideration of Impacts (2) Strongest levers for addressing the problem are Societal capability (social integration, structure, communications) Environmental warnings and alerts Education (first responders, general public,....) Engineering (air conditioners, green spaces,...) Slide 26 Imagine your job was to reduce deaths from heat waves POPULATION CONSUMPTION ENERGYCLIMATE CHANGE Its going to get hotter! MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE or USE MORE ENERGY or... Slide 27 Integrated or systematic impacts Water resources, public health, agriculture, taken in isolation rich countries can imagine that they have technological and engineering solutions to these problems, but what about their combined impacts Slide 28 An integrated picture? ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE UNCERTAINTY CLIMATE SCIENCE Fragmented Policy IMPACTS INTEGRATED IIMPACTS ? POPULATION CONSUMPTION ENERGY PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE Slide 29 What important elements are still missing? Law Business Religion Geopolitical Migration what people do Education Slide 30 There are important elements still missing Law Law offers a possible entry into the system. Links policy and de facto laws Links economic windfalls and losses Links impacts Links ethical considerations.... Promotes, perhaps, policy Slide 31 From Farber: Legal Status Climate models establish a lower end estimate for global temperature impacts, but the distribution is less clearly bounded on the high side or in simpler terms, the high- end risk may be considerable. The models are better at predicting temperature patterns than precipitation patterns, and global predictions are considerably firmer than more localized ones. Economic models are much less advanced, and their conclusions should be used with caution. Unfortunately, economists are not always careful about incorporating uncertainty into their policy recommendations. Slide 32 From Farber: Legal Status Climate scientists have created a unique institutional system for assessing and improving models, going well beyond the usual system of peer review. Consequently, their conclusions should be entitled to considerable credence by courts and agencies. Model predictions cannot be taken as gospel. There is considerable residual uncertainty about climate change impacts that cannot be fully quantified. The uncertainties on the whole make climate change a more serious problem rather than providing a source of comfort. The policy process should be designed with this uncertainty in mind. For instance, rather than focusing on a single cost-benefit analysis for proposed regulatory actions, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which oversees federal regulatory policy, might do better to require the development of standardized scenarios for agencies to use. Slide 33 The Polar Bear Problem The picture of polar bears in the sea motivated a lot of discussion about the Endangered Species Act... but, legal approaches have a difficult path,cause and effect, who are the damaged and damaging parties, what laws are relevant... Polar Bear as Endangered Species Slide 34 So what are the legal pathways? Public nuisance Clean Air Act National Environmental Policy Act Federal policy of pre-emption Less stringent federal regulations rather than more stringent state regulations Like tobacco liability litigation Like gun liability litigation Endangered Species Act Slide 35 National Environmental Quality Act (1969) Purpose Sec. 2 [42 USC 4321]. The purposes of this Act are: To declare a national policy which will encourage productive and enjoyable harmony between man and his environment; to promote efforts which will prevent or eliminate damage to the environment and biosphere and stimulate the health and welfare of man; to enrich the understanding of the ecological systems and natural resources important to the Nation; and to establish a Council on Environmental Quality. Slide 36 What are the obstacles? Political Question / Judicial Competence Court being asked, essentially, to make policy Standing The ability to show particular, or personal harm. Causation Demonstration that a particular, say, power plant or manufacturer has caused the harm Slide 37 Law Readings on Local Servers Supreme Court: Massachusetts versus EPA Sigman: Liability and Climate Policy Massachusetts Petition to the U.S. Supreme CourtMassachusetts Petition to the U.S. Suprem