Transcript of Climate change signals in the Greater Horn of Africa and possible adaptation options Christopher...
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Climate change signals in the Greater Horn of Africa and
possible adaptation options Christopher Oludhe Department of
Meteorology University of Nairobi/ICPAC THE 3RD CRAM (CROP AND
RANGELAND MONITORING) WORKSHOP IN NAIROBI, 26 - 30TH September,
2011, RCMRD, Nairobi, Kenya.
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Climate Is the average weather conditions (taken over a period
not less than 30 years), including seasonal to inter-annual
extremes and variations locally, regionally and across the globe.
Weather is the day to day variations in the climate parameter.
Climate variability Is the year to year fluctuation or the
variation in mean state of climate on all spatial and temporal
scales. Climate Change refers to a change in the state of the
climate that persists for an extended period, typically decades or
longer. Climate change may be due to natural and anthropogenic
processes. Some Definitions
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The climate of any given place is determined by the global
climate system that includes the atmosphere, the hydrosphere
(liquid water), the cryosphere (ice and snow), the lithosphere
(rock and soil) and the biosphere (plant and animals, including
humans). The science of climate change The Earths climate is
influenced by the amount of energy coming from the sun, and also by
other factors including amount of greenhouse gases and aerosols in
the atmosphere, and the properties of the Earths surface, which
determine how much of this solar energy is retained or reflected
back to space. greenhouse gasesaerosolsatmosphere
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Climate Change Concept: Change in mean, frequency and
magnitude
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CO 2, NH 4 and N 2 OConcentrations before Industrialization and
Now
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SOURCES OF GHG Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ): combustion of fossil
fuels, solid waste, wood, and wood products; cement manufacture.
Human activities can also enhance or reduce removals of CO2 from
the atmosphere by vegetation and soils (e.g., via reforestation or
deforestation). Methane (NH 4 ): coal mining, natural gas handling,
trash decomposition in landfills, and digestion by livestock.
Significant natural sources include wetlands and termite mounds.
Nitrous oxide (N 2 O): nitrogen fertilizers, certain industrial
manufacturing, and combustion of solid waste and fossil fuels.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC),
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur
hexafluoride (SF 6 ): commercial, industrial, and household
products. ;
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Global air temperatures amomalies
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Observed effects of Climate Change Sea level is rising. Arctic
sea ice is melting Glaciers and permafrost are melting. Sea-surface
temperatures are warming. The temperatures of large lakes are
warming. Heavier rainfall cause flooding in many regions. Crops are
withering Extreme drought is increasing. Ecosystems are changing
Hurricanes have changed in frequency and strength. More frequent
heat waves. Warmer temperatures affect human health. Seawater is
becoming more acidic
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Courtesy: NASA
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SOME REGIONAL INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE It is now evident
that some climate change signals are already making themselves
apparent in the GHA subregion. They include: Temperature rises;
Decreasing rainfall trends Melting and retreat of mountain
glaciers; Increasing frequency of ENSO events (extreme climate
events- Frequent occurrence of droughts and Floods); These change
signals have been associated with the following observed impacts:
Sea level rises Resurgences of some diseases; Rivers becoming more
seasonal or disappearing altogether; Shrinking of lake levels and
sizes; and Shifts in rainfall seasons among others.
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Shrinking Lake Nakuru Drying of Rivers Mt. Kilimanjaro in 1990
and 2000
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13 Observed Climate Change Signals in the Eastern Africa
Temperature rise
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INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA: OND Rainfall Trends In
Kenya Marsabit Narok Nyahururu
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Rainfall Trends Kenya and Tanzania
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Trends of Maximum and Minimum Temperature over Mandera
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Rainfall Trends in Moyale
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Rainfall Trends in the GHA
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Vulnerability of the African Continent
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Climate Projections The future climate will be determined
partly by the amount of the greenhouse gases that will be emitted,
which in turn is determined by future developments in the economy,
technology, and population growth. Population size, affluence,
fossil fuel consumption, and energy efficiency all have tremendous
influence on the overall global emissions.
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Visualising Family of Scenarios
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Family of Scenarios A1FI (fossil fuel intensive), A1B
(balanced), and A1T (predominantly non-fossil fuel)
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Future Climate Projections By 2100, temperature will rise 1.8 4
C. Sea level will rise: 18 - 59 cm. Oceans will become more acidic.
Hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will become
more frequent. There will be more precipitation at high latitudes
and less precipitation in most subtropical regions. Tropical
cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense.
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Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Africa Temperature
and precipitation changes over Africa. Differences between
1980-1999 and 2080-2099, averaged over 21 GCMs
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Projected Impacts of Climate Change Climate variability and
climate change are already a threat to food security. Frequent
droughts mean famines as a result of loss in livelihoods.
Temperature rises have been accompanied by an increase in
vector-borne diseases such as highland malaria, typhoid and
cholera. Decrease in length of growing season, and areas suitable
for rain- fed agriculture. Areas with >20% loss in length of
growing season by 2050
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The severe impacts associated with extreme climate events in
the various sub-sectors can be reduced through good understanding
of the climate patterns/events, enhanced monitoring, early warning,
effective and timely dissemination of early warning products and
awareness creation on the usefulness of climate information and
prediction products. Reducing Climate Impacts
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Examine, Identify and document the extreme weather and climate
events that affect the various sectors. Develop relevant policies
that will factor climate information and prediction products into
disaster preparedness and management. Encourage closer
collaboration between the producers of climate information and the
users of these information. Proposed Activities for reducing
climate impacts
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Setup early warning units for disaster preparedness and
management within the above sub-sectors Build Capacity in the
usage, understandability and relevance of climate information
products within each of the sectors. Document the potential
benefits of utilizing climate information products in the sectors.
Encourage collaborative/joint research amongst the research
institutions in addressing the devastating impacts of extreme
weather and climate events. Document the climate information
repackaging needs for the various sectors. Cont..
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Adaptation strategies in the Water Sector Management of water
outflows from dams More efficient water use Proper management of
water resources Rain water harvesting Catchments protection River
bank protection Soil water conservation measures Crop
diversification Intercropping so as to spread the risk Adoption of
drought resistant crops Stocking of hay as well as livestock
destocking prior to drought period and restocking when the season
improves Timely, Efficient and effective early warning systems on
climate anomalies
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Adaptation Technologies in Agriculture
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Conclusions Climate change impacts have the potential to
undermine and even, undo progress made in improving the
socio-economic well-being of many countries in Africa. There is
need to focus on reducing the risks associated with the current
climate variability and extremes in order to be able to adapt to
future changes in climate.
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RECOMMENDATIONS Need to Conduct studies to understand of local
/ regional climate systems Understand and Predict regional
variability / change Need for mapping regional climate hazards Need
to Address Regional climate data gaps, Capacity building needs,
Climate modelling and the use of various climate change impact
tools.