Climate Change Problem Solving(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

Richard B. RoodCell: 301-526-8572

2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)rbrood@umich.edu

http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood

Winter 2010January 7, 2010

Class News

• Ctools site: AOSS 480 001 W10• 2008 Class On Line:

– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

• First Reading: Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html

– And in particular two subsections• Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect:

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm• Simple climate models http://

www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm

Today

• Who am I?

• Course Description Overview

• Some Questions and Discussion

• Glimpse in the Climate Change Problem

What is the Point of View that I Bring?

• Scientist and manager at NASA publishing in ozone modeling, climate modeling, data analysis, high-performance computing.

• Worked on multi-agency strategies for climate modeling and addressing the interface between the science of climate change and the use of climate information by stakeholders.

• Participant in national and international assessments of ozone depletion and environmental impact of aircraft.

• Teaching this course for the fifth time.

What is the Point of View that I Bring?

• “Complex problems with no known solutions.”

• There is something of “text” evolving on the web from my blogs.– Blog data base.– http://climateknowledge.org/Blogs/index.php/Main_Page

SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE

What are the pieces which we must consider?(what are the consequences)

Belief System Values Perception Cultural Mandate Societal Needs

information flow: research, journals, press, opinion, …

SecurityFood

EnvironmentalNational

Societal SuccessStandard of Living

...???...

ECONOMICSPOLICY

“BUSINESS” PUBLIC HEALTH SOCIAL JUSTICE

ENERGYRELIGION ??????

From Course Description

• Identify the important elements of science, policy, economics, public health, etc.– Where should we pay attention?– What do we know versus what do we believe?

• Identify and map the interactions between these elements and connections to other external elements– How big is the problem?

• How is all of this changing?

Course Project

• Reflective of workplace …– “Complex Problems with no Known Solutions.”

• Groups of individuals with varied expertise• Responsive to “news”

– Relationship of news to science• Project will provide recommendations, a strategy for addressing the

complex problem.– What are first steps?– What do we need to look out for as these steps are taken?

• Monitor progress // briefing during the course– Use of community web page– Development of wiki book– Possible publication on widely accessed web site.

• Presentation at end of course

Course News

• Project– Grade will be determined on the project

• Start to think about them – perhaps today• Teams that bring together several elements of the project

– Should be no larger than 4 people.

– Should not be your friends that have the same background.

• Should be defined by late January– I will provide a template for thinking about the problem.

• We will visit and re-visit the projects over the course– That means I will provide management / customer oversight.

• Final presentations at the end– Five or less small (1 page) writing exercises during the course.

Who are we?

• Name

• Major or Interest

• Any particular reason you wanted to take this course.

• When some one asks you about global warming, or you hear about global warming, what is your first reaction?

Questions

• Do you think that the planet is warming?– Is this warming consequential?– Is this warming manmade?– Can we do something about it?

Glimpse into the issues of Climate Change

• Some global climate predictions

The motivator: Increase of CO2

(Keeling et al., 1996)

Note: There isconsistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C)

Also, it’s still going up in 2100!

Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non-controversial.

The prediction:

Projected Global Temperature Trends

IPCC ‘01

2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990.Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).

Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/

See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2008http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/

See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

IPCC 2007: The last

~100 years

What parameters/events do we care about?

• Temperature• Water

– Precipitation– Evaporation– Humidity

• Air Composition– Air quality– Aerosols– Carbon dioxide

• Winds• Clouds / Sunlight

• Droughts• Floods

• Extreme Weather

The impact of climate change is Water for EcosystemsWater for PeopleWater for EnergyWater for Physical Climate

Thanks

• We’ll really get started next time!