Climate change mitigation by cassava-based bio-ethanol production in Mali: Feasible and

sustainable ?

Kjeld Rasmussen

Laura Vang Rasmussen

The rationale of renewable energy in Mali

Mali has no commitment to reduce GHG emissions, yet

• Mali depends on imports of oil (for the transport sector, for industry and for a limited part of the power production)

• Most power comes from hydropower, yet the potential for expansion is limited

• The rate of growth in power demand is > 7 % per year

therefore

• It makes sense that Mali develops a modern, productive renewable energy system

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A mapping of Mali’s renewable energy resources

First phase of a joint project between Mali Folkecenter, Risø, GRAS and Dep. of Geography and Geology, funded by Danida (the Embassy in Mali)

Results:

• Wind energy is presently a realistic option to supplement diesel-based power generation in isolated grids in the northern part of Mali

• Solar energy resources of relatively evenly distributed over Mali and over the year, especially in southern Mali. Its use is mainly a matter of price

• Bio-energy resources (in addition to the traditional use of wood) are concentrated in the southern part of the country, where a substantial potential for bio-fuel production exists. and where concentrations of crop residues may be used for power production.

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Phase 2, component C: Cassava-based bio-ethanol production

• The 1st phase of the project suggested that four bio-energy productions might be interesting in Mali:

• Plant-oil/bio-diesel from Jatropha

• Use of agricultural residues in power plants

• Rice straw

• Cotton residues

• Use of wood-fuel in power plants

• Bio-ethanol from cassava

• We chose the latter because:

• Little has been written about it

• Cassava is widely cultivated by smallholders

• We found that major negative (local and national) effects on food security were unlikely

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Participants

UC /GRAS:

• Thilde Bech Bruun

• Torben Birch-Thomsen

• Bo Elberling

• Ronja Egsmose

• Niels Fold

• Søren Kristensen

• Laura Vang Rasmussen

• Kjeld Rasmussen

MFC:

• Ousmane Ouattara

• Ibrahim Togola

• Oumar Traoré

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Questions - 1

• Are there land resources available to avoid the negative impacts of competition between food production for subsistence and cassava production for bio-ethanol ?

• Will large-scale production of cassava for bio-ethanol be environmentally sustainable, and will it have the intended climate change mitigation effects ?

• Is it realistic that farmers will be able and willing to increase cassava production to provide feedstock for bio-ethanol production at a price making such a production possible and profitable ?

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Questions - 2

• What will the impacts be on household incomes and equality?

• Who are the key actors in Mali’s value chain for cassava, and what will be the effect on these actors of establishing a bio-ethanol production ?

• What will be the overall effect on food security, locally, regionally, nationally and globally, of increasing cassava production for bio-ethanol ?

• Will increased cassava production for bio-ethanol be sensitive to future climate change ?

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’Systems analysis’

• The market (in Mali or the nearest neighboring countries) can absorb a production of 10 million liters of bio-ethanol

• A facility is located in the vicinity of a cassava production area capable of producing in the order of 50-70.000 tons/year

• In this area the production of cassava should take place in parallel with a food crop production large enough to assure food security

• The yields obtained should be a minimum of 10 tons/ha, or it should be feasible to attain this (or preferably a higher) level by greater use of inputs and agronomic expertise

• The smallholders should be willing to produce a guaranteed amount at a guaranteed price of 30-40 CFA/kg

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Selection of study site – criteria - 1:

• The availability of the basic production factors required to increase the production of cassava. These include mainly suitable land and labour resources.

• Environmental criteria, including

• Suitable soil and climatic conditions

• Acceptable impacts of increased cassava production on ecosystems, biodiversity and water resources

• Acceptable impacts on carbon stocks in vegetation and crops

• Institutional criteria (in a broad sense), including

• The presence and competence of local institutions, public as well as private, providing a framework for involving smallholders in the production

• Experience with contract farming

• Land rights, allowing flexible expansion of cassava production

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Selection of study site – criteria - 2:

• Economic criteria, not the least an actual or potential price of cassava allowing economically sound bio-ethanol production

• Infra-structural factors, including

• Possibilities of transporting the cassava from fields and villages to the processing site at reasonable cost

• Access to relevant markets, in Mali and/or neighbouring countries

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Land use

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Environmental sustainability

• How will production of bio-ethanol from cassava affect net-emissions of GHGs, directly as well as indirectly, and locally as well as globally ?

• Will expanding or intensified cassava production draw upon water and plant nutrient resources, and will this be sustainable ?

• Will expansion of the cassava production area cause loss of biological diversity, locally or globally ?

• Will the expansion of cassava production cause changes in the pollution with pesticides and insecticides and greater leaching of plant nutrients, with effects on ground- and surface water ?

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Carbon-pools in the vegetation and soil

Carbon in the vegetation: Selected results

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

18,0

20,0

Maximum estimation Minimum estimation Maximum estimation Minimum estimation

Fallow areas with a maximum age of 5 years All sampled fallow areas

Carb

on

sto

ck

in

th

e b

iom

ass

(M

g C

/ha)

Carbon in preserved biomass

Carbon in removed biomass

Carbon in above-ground biomass on the areas into which cassava will potentially expand

Carbon in vegetation: Repay times

0

4

8

12

16

20

Min estimation Max estimation Min estimation Max estimation Min estimation Max estimation

Removal of non-useful trees at fallow

areas with a max age of 5 years

Removal of non-useful trees at all

sampled fallow areas

Total removal of all trees

Carb

on

deb

t all

ocate

d t

o c

han

ges

in a

bo

ve-

gro

un

d b

iom

ass

an

d f

ert

iliz

er

use

(M

g C

/ha)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Min estimation Max estimation Min estimation Max estimation Min estimation Max estimation

Removal of non-useful trees at fallow

areas with a max age of 5 years

Removal of non-useful trees at all

sampled fallow areas

Total removal of all trees

Tim

e t

o r

ep

ay

carb

on

deb

t (Y

ears

)

A

B

Pay-back times of 8-25 years are considered ’good’

Below-ground carbon is not included. Preliminary estimations show repay times of 37-81 years

Social impact and sustainability

• What are the likely impacts of cassava-based bio-ethanol production on poverty and livelihoods ?

• How are the cassava value chains structured, and what are the implications hereof on the social consequences of cassava-based bio-ethanol production ?

• Will existing inequalities (ethnic, social, age and gender related) in the access to natural resources and income opportunities be affected by the establishment of cassava-based bio-ethanol production ?

• Will food security at local, regional, national and international levels be compromised by establishment of a cassava-based bio-ethanol production ?

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Climate change sensitivity analysis

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Conclusions

1. Cassava-based bio-ethanol production is feasible in southern Mali, even at current oil-prices, and especially if positive externalities are taken into account

2. Establishment of such a production will in the first place be claimed to cause a ‘carbon debt’, which may subsequently be repaid over few decades

3. There are no local or national scale negative consequences in food security, if certain regulations are implemented

4. A bio-ethanol production mainly based on cassava produced by smallholder farmers would have a positive impact on household incomes

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