Climate Change Issues and Planning for Climate Change Issues and Planning for NYC’s Water SupplyNYC’s Water Supply

Lorraine L. Janus, Ph. D.Chief, Water Quality Science & Research

NYCDEP Bureau of Water Supply ljanus@dep.nyc.gov

2008 Watershed Science and Technology ConferenceThayer Hotel, West Point NY

Presentation Outline: Presentation Outline:

Climate change planning for NYC - contextClimate change planning for NYC - context Formation of DEP’s Climate Change Task Force Formation of DEP’s Climate Change Task Force Climate Change Observations and PredictionsClimate Change Observations and Predictions Water Quantity and Water Quality IssuesWater Quantity and Water Quality Issues NYCDEP’s Action PlanNYCDEP’s Action Plan Importance of climate change research as the Importance of climate change research as the

basis for planning the futurebasis for planning the future Direction of National Climate Change ResearchDirection of National Climate Change Research

AwwaRF’s Climate Change InitiativeAwwaRF’s Climate Change Initiative

NYC’s Future - PlaNYC Goals:NYC’s Future - PlaNYC Goals:

PlaNYC goal: sustainability in 2030PlaNYC goal: sustainability in 2030 Challenges are: pop growth, Challenges are: pop growth, aging infrastructureaging infrastructure, ,

increasing pollution pressureincreasing pollution pressure Must plan: Must plan: back-up systems for water networkback-up systems for water network, ,

upgrade transit systems, clean reliable powerupgrade transit systems, clean reliable power

Environmental goals: Environmental goals: Mitigate climate changeMitigate climate change – 30% GHG reduction – 30% GHG reduction Cleaner airCleaner air Clean-up of contaminated landClean-up of contaminated land Reduce water pollutionReduce water pollution

Genesis of DEP’s Climate Change Task ForceGenesis of DEP’s Climate Change Task Force

2001: Metro East Coast 2001: Metro East Coast Assessment, prepared by Assessment, prepared by scientists at the Columbia Univ. scientists at the Columbia Univ. Earth Institute Earth Institute

2004: Developed agency-wide 2004: Developed agency-wide DEP Climate Change Task Force DEP Climate Change Task Force in collaboration with Columbia in collaboration with Columbia University Center for Climate University Center for Climate Systems Research and NASA’s Systems Research and NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)Studies (GISS)

2006: Draft Guidelines Report 2006: Draft Guidelines Report and Climate Scenarios Reportand Climate Scenarios Report

Ensure that DEP’s strategic and capital planning take into account the potential risks posed by climate change — sea level rise, higher temperature, increase in extreme events, and changing precipitation patterns —on the City’s water supply, sewer and wastewater treatment systems.

Climate Change Task Force Mission Statement:

Climate Change Science is Required for Climate Change Science is Required for Planning: Observations and PredictionsPlanning: Observations and Predictions

NASA/GISS developed future climate scenarios for NASA/GISS developed future climate scenarios for the Northeastern USthe Northeastern US Sea level riseSea level rise Increasing temperatureIncreasing temperature

USGS has provided analysis of observations in USGS has provided analysis of observations in the Catskillsthe Catskills Increases in stream temperaturesIncreases in stream temperatures Earlier snowmeltEarlier snowmelt

Temperature increases in the Northeastern US:Temperature increases in the Northeastern US:

Past: 100+ years of measurementsIncrease of ~ 2.5 F

Future: predictions to 2080Increase of 4 to 7 F

Sea Level Rise in theSea Level Rise in the Northeastern US: Northeastern US:

Past: 85 years of measurementsRise of ~ 12 inches per century

Future: predictions to 2080Increase of ~ 15 inches

Projected Change in Days with Projected Change in Days with Heavy Precipitation (>1 inch/24 Heavy Precipitation (>1 inch/24

hours)hours) from the Metro East Coast Report, 2001from the Metro East Coast Report, 2001

Projected Change in the Flood Projected Change in the Flood Recurrence Interval of the 100-Recurrence Interval of the 100-

Year StormYear Storm from the Metro East Coast Report, 2001from the Metro East Coast Report, 2001

Why is this important?Why is this important?

Changes in temperature affect Changes in temperature affect many components and rates of many components and rates of

the hydrological cycle.the hydrological cycle.

Hydrologic Water Balance - climate forcingsPrecipitation

Snowpack

AirTemperature

Rain +Snowmelt

PET

ET

Direct Runoff

Infiltration

UnsaturatedZone

Saturated Zone Baseflow

Streamflow

Latitude

RelativeHumidity

Solar Radiation

MeltCoeff

VegetationCover Coeff

CurveNumber Delay

Coeff

RecessCoeff

Soil WaterCapacity

BypassCoeff

Elevation

Season

by HRU

Primarily a surface water supply

19 reservoirs & 3 controlled lakes

System Capacity: 550 billion gallons (over 2 billion kiloliters)

Serves 9 million people (1/2 of population of New York State)

Delivers approx. 1.2 billion gallons (4.5 million kiloliters) per day to the City

Source of water is a 2,000 square mile (5,180 square kilometer) watershed in parts of 8 upstate counties

Operated and maintained by NYCDEP

Climate Change will affect the vast resource of the water supply and its ecology in many ways:

How will climate change impacts How will climate change impacts reverberate through the natural system?reverberate through the natural system?

How does the hydrological cycle affect ecology and limnology?How does the hydrological cycle affect ecology and limnology? Shift of ecological zones, e.g., plant zonesShift of ecological zones, e.g., plant zones Lake trophic status is determined by the balance between Lake trophic status is determined by the balance between

nutrient loads and flushing rates, then light and temperaturenutrient loads and flushing rates, then light and temperature

What are the ecological repercussions and how will they affect What are the ecological repercussions and how will they affect water quality?water quality?

Animal habitats will shift with vegetation & temperatureAnimal habitats will shift with vegetation & temperature Algal growth and decay rates will determine oxygen depletion, Algal growth and decay rates will determine oxygen depletion,

metal and nutrient reflux, taste and odor, DBPs, fish kills, etc.metal and nutrient reflux, taste and odor, DBPs, fish kills, etc.

What are the What are the Water Quantity Issues?Water Quantity Issues?

Droughts Droughts Floods Floods Infrastructure capacities:Infrastructure capacities:

DamsDams WWTPsWWTPs Stormwater BMPsStormwater BMPs

Policies for operations, watershed protection, Policies for operations, watershed protection, ecological preservation, etc. ecological preservation, etc.

Delaware System: Delaware System: Flooding at Downsville due to Flooding at Downsville due to

Hurricane IvanHurricane Ivan

WWTPs shift to wet weather opsMonitoring of water supply intensified to track problemsEquipment moved to high ground

What are the Primary Water What are the Primary Water Quality Issues?Quality Issues?

Bacteria and pathogensBacteria and pathogens

Organic precursors to Organic precursors to disinfection byproducts and disinfection byproducts and dissolved substancesdissolved substances

Eutrophication (increased Eutrophication (increased biological activity)biological activity)

TurbidityTurbidity

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00

Nu

mb

er

of

Wa

terb

ird

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WATERBIRDMANAGEMENT

BIRD SURVEYS BEGAN HERE

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

31778 32144 32510 32876 33242 33608 33974 34340 34706 35072 35438 35804 36170 36536

% o

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>20

cfu

/100

ml i

n p

revi

ou

s 6

Mo

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CATLEFF DEL 18

SWTR COMPLIANCE LIMIT

WATERBIRD MANAGEMENT

BYPASS

Climate will affect waterfowl migrations - a significant source of coliform bacteria

BIRDS:

COLIFORMS:

Will climate change affect Will climate change affect

Pathogen abundance?Pathogen abundance? - - GiardiaGiardia varies inversely with temperature varies inversely with temperature

- - unknown why; will require future researchunknown why; will require future research

Nutrients lead to algal blooms:Nutrients lead to algal blooms:

ActionsActions Reduce nutrient loads: installed Reduce nutrient loads: installed

tertiary treatment at > 100 WWTPs tertiary treatment at > 100 WWTPs Develop Watershed Programs: Develop Watershed Programs:

Whole Farm Program to control Whole Farm Program to control agricultural sources from ~300 agricultural sources from ~300 dairy farmsdairy farms

Fine tune chlorination for Fine tune chlorination for DBP controlDBP control

Use low phosphate detergentsUse low phosphate detergents

Impacts• Increased rainfall, nutrient loading, and temperature effects:

-oxygen depletion- taste, odor and color problems- fish kills- and DBPs

Turbidity due to intense rainfall and erosion: Turbidity due to intense rainfall and erosion: - may require alum treatment- may require alum treatment

Schoharie reservoir after a major flood event

NYCDEP’s Climate Change Activities:NYCDEP’s Climate Change Activities:2003 – joined EU CLIME (Climate impacts on lakes)2003 – joined EU CLIME (Climate impacts on lakes)

– – book to be published soonbook to be published soon

2004 – Climate Change Task Force formed 2004 – Climate Change Task Force formed

2005 – Bureau-wide review of vulnerabilities2005 – Bureau-wide review of vulnerabilities

2006 – Assessment and Action Plan drafted2006 – Assessment and Action Plan drafted

– – AwwaRF PAC for project to apply AwwaRF PAC for project to apply

Decision Analysis for CC planning (WQD)Decision Analysis for CC planning (WQD)

2007 – refinement of science on-going; basis of actions2007 – refinement of science on-going; basis of actions

2008 – NYCDEP Climate Change Program: Assessment and 2008 – NYCDEP Climate Change Program: Assessment and Action Plan issued Action Plan issued

– – Integrated Modeling Plan created (WQD)Integrated Modeling Plan created (WQD)

– – AwwaRF involvement in Expert Panel to guide AwwaRF involvement in Expert Panel to guide

national research agenda (WQD)national research agenda (WQD)

– – WUCA member in support of Decision Analysis to WUCA member in support of Decision Analysis to guide costly policy and infrastructure decisions (OEPA) guide costly policy and infrastructure decisions (OEPA)

NYCDEP’s Climate Change NYCDEP’s Climate Change Action PlanAction Plan

Task 1 – Work with Climate Change Scientists to Task 1 – Work with Climate Change Scientists to improve regional climate change projectionsimprove regional climate change projections

Task 2 – Quantify potential Climate Change impacts on Task 2 – Quantify potential Climate Change impacts on NYC Water SystemsNYC Water Systems

Task 3 – Determine and Implement Appropriate Task 3 – Determine and Implement Appropriate Adjustments to NYC’s Water SystemsAdjustments to NYC’s Water Systems

Task 4 – Inventory and reduce Greenhouse Gas Task 4 – Inventory and reduce Greenhouse Gas EmissionsEmissions

Task 5 – Improve Communication and Tracking Task 5 – Improve Communication and Tracking MechanismsMechanisms

National Perspective: AwwaRF Climate National Perspective: AwwaRF Climate Change Strategic Initiative – priorities:Change Strategic Initiative – priorities:

Year I. Develop CC resources for water utilities; select Year I. Develop CC resources for water utilities; select content for central knowledge repository websitecontent for central knowledge repository website

Year II. Evaluate CC impacts on regulations and Year II. Evaluate CC impacts on regulations and opportunities for regulatory change opportunities for regulatory change

Vunerability assessment and risk management tools; Vunerability assessment and risk management tools; guidance to select adaptation optionsguidance to select adaptation options

Evaluate impacts of carbon sequestration Evaluate impacts of carbon sequestration Analyze changes in water use under regional CC Analyze changes in water use under regional CC

scenariosscenarios Develop approach to design sustainable water assetsDevelop approach to design sustainable water assets

What are the benefits of Climate Change What are the benefits of Climate Change Planning (Risk Management) ?Planning (Risk Management) ?

DEP has experienced events that demonstrate system DEP has experienced events that demonstrate system vulnerabilities even under current conditionsvulnerabilities even under current conditions

Adaptations for climate change improve ability to deal with Adaptations for climate change improve ability to deal with current climate variabilitycurrent climate variability

Proactive planning for climate change can reduce Proactive planning for climate change can reduce economic, social, environmental, and legal riskseconomic, social, environmental, and legal risks

Integrating adaptations into infrastructure maintenance and Integrating adaptations into infrastructure maintenance and replacement can be cheaper than playing catch-up or replacement can be cheaper than playing catch-up or bearing impacts of failurebearing impacts of failure

AcknowledgementAcknowledgement

Management of NYCDEP: Management of NYCDEP: Commissioner Lloyd, Commissioner Lloyd, DC Paul Rush, and DC Paul Rush, and Director Steve SchindlerDirector Steve Schindler

Staff of NYCDEP Water Quality DirectorateStaff of NYCDEP Water Quality Directorate Kerri Alderisio; Don Pierson; Elliot Schneiderman; Kerri Alderisio; Don Pierson; Elliot Schneiderman;

Chris NadareskiChris Nadareski

Climate Change Task ForceClimate Change Task Force Angela Licata; Gary HeathAngela Licata; Gary Heath

AwwaRF CC Expert PanelAwwaRF CC Expert Panel

Thank YouThank You

www.nyc.dep.govwww.nyc.dep.gov