Climate Change & International Treaties

Climate ChangeClimate Change& International Treaties& International Treaties

East Asia DepartmentEast Asia DepartmentAsian Development BankAsian Development Bank

2929thth October 2009 October 2009

2

Contents Contents

1. Climate Change: Science and Politics

2. the UNFCCC3. the Kyoto Protocol

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IrreversibilityIrreversibility

IndifferenceIndifference

UncertaintyUncertainty

The tragedy of the commonsThe tragedy of the commons

Immaturity of alternative technologyImmaturity of alternative technology

No sovereign governmentNo sovereign government

Climate Change: CharacteristicsClimate Change: Characteristics

• Tyndale: a slight change in the composition of the atmosphere can cause a big climate change (1861)

• Arrhenius: verified the greenhouse effect (1896)

• Callendar: discovered fossil fuel consumption could increase the mean surface temperature through the increase in atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (1938)

Scientific Background of Climate Scientific Background of Climate ChangeChange

CO2 concentration

• Pre-industrial revolution: 280ppm

• Present: 380ppm+

• The end of 21st century:

490-1,260ppm

Mean surface temperature 1.4~5.8℃increase

Sea-level rise 9~88cm

6

Greenhouse Gases

CO2

• Accounts for 80% of GHGs

• Caused by the burning of fossil fuel

• livestock enteric fermentation, mining, and manual management

• Decomposition of organic wastes• Coal mining and burning fuels in high temperature

• Production and consumption of fertilizers

HFCs/ PFCs/ SF6

• Man-made, chemical elements• Small amount, but big effect on

Green House Effect• Caused by Refrigeration

system, fire suppression system

CH4

N2O

Gases causing greenhouse effect in the earth atmosphere. Six GHGs are controlled by the Kyoto Protocol.

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GWP (Global Warming Potential)GWP (Global Warming Potential)

COCO22 CHCH44 NN22OOHFCs HFCs

(HFC23)(HFC23)

PFCs PFCs

(PFC-116)(PFC-116)SF6SF6

IPCC IPCC SARSAR

(1995)(1995)11 2121 310310

140~11,700140~11,700

(11,700)(11,700)

6,500~9,2006,500~9,200

(9,200)(9,200)23,9023,90

00

IPCC IPCC AR4AR4

(2007)(2007)11 2525 298298

124~14,800124~14,800

(14,800)(14,800)

7,390~12,2007,390~12,200

(12,200)(12,200)22,8022,80

00

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Trend on Climate changeTrend on Climate change

A task force in World Economic Forum issued initial policy suggestions to G8 leaders about long term policy aiming to cut global emissions of greenhouse gases by 50% by 2050. (June 2008)

Over 70% of Fortune 500 companies are regarding the climate change as a risk factor.

U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon put the issue of climate change the high priority task since his inauguration.

Summit such as G8 or APEC also discussed as a main issue.

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Global Reports on the adverse effects and the cost of climate change attract the public

attention.

IPCC 4th Report (Feb. 2007)It predicts the average rise of 5.8°c in temperature, and 88cm rise in the sea level by 2100 without any additional efforts. Melting glaciers would increase flooding and rockslide risks, while millions are exposed to flood risks.

Stern Review (Dec. 2006)The costs of action to reduce GHG emissions to avoid the worst impacts can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year. However, if the efforts are delayed, the estimates of damage could rise to 5~20% of GDP or more.

Reports on the Effects of Climate change Reports on the Effects of Climate change

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GHG Emission Reduction Goals of Selected GHG Emission Reduction Goals of Selected CountriesCountries

EU

Canada

Republic of Korea

Japan

“60~80% below

the present level by 2050”

England UNFCCC IPCC

USA

17% reduction by 2020,

80% reduction by 2050

compared with 2005 level(’09.5 W-M Act)

Australia

(’08.6.9 prime minister Fukuda)

(’08.7.9 president Lee Myung Bak)

Source: Ministry of Environment, Republic of Korea


compared with 1990 level

60~80% reduction by 2050








a voluntary target be declared in 2009

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Issues on Developing Countries’ participation

Negotiation PointDeveloped Countries : demand for participation in GHG emissions reduction of developing countries such as China, India, South Korea, and MexicoDeveloping Countries: suggested more aggressive ER target, and enhance technological and financial support for developing countries

ProposalsDivide developing countries into “capable and responsible developing countries” and “other developing countries”

USA

Among non-Annex I parties, OECD members and OECD candidates need to set targets for emission reduction E U

Include OECD members in Annex I and establish Annex C for fragmenting developing countriesJapan

China : minimize amending the Kyoto Protocol and emphasize technology transfer to developing countries

India: need a new system to promote technology transfer and financial support

Developing

Countries

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The first World Climate Conference (WCC) in 1979The first World Climate Conference (WCC) in 1979 Triggered international response to climate change issue Explored how climate change might affect human activities Issued a declaration calling on the world’s governments "to foresee and

prevent potential man-made changes in climate that might be adverse to the well-being of humanity".

Endorsed plans to establish a World Climate Program (WCP) under the joint responsibility of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), and the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU).

UN General Assembly

UNFCCC

WMO

IPCC

UNEP

< International Organization on the Climate Change Convention >< International Organization on the Climate Change Convention >

The Climate Change Convention: HistoryThe Climate Change Convention: History

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Villach Conference and Toronto ConferenceVillach Conference and Toronto Conference

The Villach Conference, AustriaThe Villach Conference, Austria

Held by Held by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) in October, in October, 19851985

The first assessment of the role of carbon dioxide in climatic The first assessment of the role of carbon dioxide in climatic variability and its associated impacts variability and its associated impacts

Predicted that a temperature would rise about 5Predicted that a temperature would rise about 5ooC in the next C in the next 50 years 50 years if the current COif the current CO22 emission level maintains emission level maintains and and adopted a statement calling for international cooperation for adopted a statement calling for international cooperation for measures to prevent global warmingmeasures to prevent global warming

The Toronto Conference, CanadaThe Toronto Conference, Canada

Held in 1998, in which climate change experts, government Held in 1998, in which climate change experts, government officials, and business men over 40 countries participated. officials, and business men over 40 countries participated.

Adopted a statement calling for a specific reduction target of Adopted a statement calling for a specific reduction target of CO2: 20% below 1988 levels by 2005. CO2: 20% below 1988 levels by 2005.

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IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Established by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WMO)

Provide the world with a clear scientific view on the Provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequencesenvironmental and socio-economic consequences

As a scientific body, the IPCC reviews and assesses the As a scientific body, the IPCC reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technmost recent scientific, technologiological and socio-economic cal and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change understanding of climate change

IPCC’s results are considered the most prestigious study IPCC’s results are considered the most prestigious study on climate change and had a significant impact on on climate change and had a significant impact on discussions at the Climate Change Conventions discussions at the Climate Change Conventions

Establishment of IPCC

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3 Working Groups (WG) 3 Working Groups (WG)

．． WGⅠ: The Physical Science BasisWGⅠ: The Physical Science Basis

．． WGⅡ: Impact, Adaptation, and VulnerabilityWGⅡ: Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

．． WGⅢ: MitigationWGⅢ: Mitigation Task force on National Greenhouse Gas InventoriesTask force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

< IPCC< IPCC Structure >Structure >

Sructure of IPCC

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The Second World Climate ConferenceThe Second World Climate Conference

Sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), and other United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), and other international organizations, the conference was held in Geneva international organizations, the conference was held in Geneva from 29 October to 7 November 1990.from 29 October to 7 November 1990.

Negotiation was conducted amongNegotiation was conducted among 137 states and European Community

Committed to adopting Committed to adopting a global framework convention on climate change to cope with global warming to cope with global warming (Based on the 1st IPCC report)

Recognize a number of principles that had emerged in Recognize a number of principles that had emerged in international climate discussions such as:international climate discussions such as:

Common but differentiated responsibilitiesCommon but differentiated responsibilities• Recognize that the emissions from developing countries Recognize that the emissions from developing countries

must still grow to accommodate their development needs must still grow to accommodate their development needs • Urge developed states, which are responsible for 75% of the Urge developed states, which are responsible for 75% of the

world’s emissions of greenhouse gases, to "establish world’s emissions of greenhouse gases, to "establish targets and/or feasible national programs or strategies targets and/or feasible national programs or strategies which will have a significant effect on limiting emissions of which will have a significant effect on limiting emissions of greenhouse gases ..."; greenhouse gases ...";

Precautionary principlePrecautionary principle• Response measures must be adopted without delay, despite Response measures must be adopted without delay, despite

remaining scientific uncertainties remaining scientific uncertainties

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Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC/FCCC)

•1990. 12: agreed on establishing INC/FCCC respond to the statement of 1990. 12: agreed on establishing INC/FCCC respond to the statement of the UN General Assembly’s resolution the UN General Assembly’s resolution •1991.2 ~ 1992.5: drafted the Climate Change Convention 1991.2 ~ 1992.5: drafted the Climate Change Convention •1992. 5: INC 51992. 5: INC 5thth meeting (New York) meeting (New York)

- The FCCC was opened for signature after the INC produced the text - The FCCC was opened for signature after the INC produced the text of the Framework Conventionof the Framework Convention

•1992.6 1992.6 UNCED: 154 Governments at the Rio "Earth Summit" signed a UNCED: 154 Governments at the Rio "Earth Summit" signed a major environmental treaty, the UN Framework Convention on Climate major environmental treaty, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.Change.

•1995. 2: dissolved after the 11th meeting 1995. 2: dissolved after the 11th meeting

- Conference of the Parties became the "supreme body" of the - Conference of the Parties became the "supreme body" of the Convention and the highest decision-making authority to review Convention and the highest decision-making authority to review all the process of Convention all the process of Convention

AdoptionAdoption Entry into force Entry into force No. of Ratified CountriesNo. of Ratified Countries

1992.61992.6 1994.3.211994.3.21 189(as of 2008.9)189(as of 2008.9)

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Climate Change ConventionClimate Change Convention

As the significance of climate change was widely acknowledged, the As the significance of climate change was widely acknowledged, the Convention easily entered into force effective since the Convention easily entered into force effective since the “Convention” is not mandatory“Convention” is not mandatory

Conventions on environmental issues Conventions on environmental issues

Geneva Convention, Vienna Convention, Climate Change Geneva Convention, Vienna Convention, Climate Change ConventionConvention

Geneva Convention(1979)Geneva Convention(1979) Convention on trans-boundary air pollution in Europe Convention on trans-boundary air pollution in Europe Based on the hypothesis that air pollutants could travel several Based on the hypothesis that air pollutants could travel several

thousands of kilometers before deposition and damage thousands of kilometers before deposition and damage occurred.occurred.

Also implied that cooperation at the international level was Also implied that cooperation at the international level was necessary to solve problems such as acidificationnecessary to solve problems such as acidification

First international legally binding instrument to deal with First international legally binding instrument to deal with problems of air pollution on a broad regional basisproblems of air pollution on a broad regional basis

Vienna Convention (1985) Vienna Convention (1985) The convention on stratospheric ozone layer depletionThe convention on stratospheric ozone layer depletion Montreal Protocol (1987) Montreal Protocol (1987)

International treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by International treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out the production and consumption of a number of phasing out the production and consumption of a number of substances believed to be responsible for ozone layer depletionsubstances believed to be responsible for ozone layer depletion

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The Climate Change ConventionThe Climate Change Convention

• Goal of achieving “Stabilization of greenhouse gas Goal of achieving “Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”climate system”

• PartiesParties

- Annex I parties and non-Annex I parties take different - Annex I parties and non-Annex I parties take different responsibilities responsibilities

• CommitmentCommitment

- Annex I: reduce GHG emissions below their 1990 levels by - Annex I: reduce GHG emissions below their 1990 levels by 20002000

- Annex II: provide financial resources to enable developing - Annex II: provide financial resources to enable developing countries to undertake appropriate policies and measurescountries to undertake appropriate policies and measures

- All Parties: develop national inventories, prepare policies - All Parties: develop national inventories, prepare policies and acts on emission reductions, promote and cooperate and acts on emission reductions, promote and cooperate technological / socio-economic researches, call for public technological / socio-economic researches, call for public attention, submit national communications attention, submit national communications

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Annex I partiesAnnex I parties

Under obligatory compliance: 37 Industrialized countries + Under obligatory compliance: 37 Industrialized countries + ECEC

Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America + Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America + European Community European Community

Without obligatory compliance: 2 countries ( Turkey, Belarus)Without obligatory compliance: 2 countries ( Turkey, Belarus)

Belarus and Turkey are listed in Annex I but don’t have the Belarus and Turkey are listed in Annex I but don’t have the obligatory target because of their national situations. Their emission obligatory target because of their national situations. Their emission reduction targets are held back temporarily. reduction targets are held back temporarily.

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UNFCCC: Structure

UNFCCCUNFCCC

COPConference of the Parties

IPCCSecretariat

IPCCSBI

Subsidiary Body for Implementation

SBSTASubsidiary Body on

Technical Advice

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Party vs. Non-partyParty vs. Non-party

Party – country that has ratified the UNFCCC. Party – country that has ratified the UNFCCC. • Annex I Parties : all the countries in the OECD in 1990, plus Annex I Parties : all the countries in the OECD in 1990, plus

countries with ‘economies in transition(EIT)’ countries with ‘economies in transition(EIT)’ • Annex II Parties Annex II Parties

all countries in the OECD in 1990 except EIT countriesall countries in the OECD in 1990 except EIT countriesexpected to promote the transfer of environmentally sound expected to promote the transfer of environmentally sound

technologies to developing countries and EIT countriestechnologies to developing countries and EIT countriesare obligated to provide financial resources to assist are obligated to provide financial resources to assist

developing countries comply with their obligationsdeveloping countries comply with their obligations• Non-AnnexⅠParties: Countries which were not included in Non-AnnexⅠParties: Countries which were not included in

Annex IAnnex I Non-party: country that has not ratified the UNFCCC. Non-party: country that has not ratified the UNFCCC.

Non-parties may attend talks as observersNon-parties may attend talks as observers

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Conference of the Parties, COPConference of the Parties, COP

The "supreme body" of the Convention

- the highest decision-making authority The COP is responsible for: The COP is responsible for:

Reviewing the implementation of the Convention and examining Reviewing the implementation of the Convention and examining the commitments of Parties in light of the Convention’s the commitments of Parties in light of the Convention’s objective, new scientific findings and experience gained in objective, new scientific findings and experience gained in implementing climate change policies;implementing climate change policies;

Keeping international efforts to address climate change on track;Keeping international efforts to address climate change on track; Reviewing the national communications and emission Reviewing the national communications and emission

inventories submitted by Parties; andinventories submitted by Parties; and Assessing the effects of the measures taken by Parties and the Assessing the effects of the measures taken by Parties and the

progress made in achieving the ultimate objective of the progress made in achieving the ultimate objective of the Convention.Convention.

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Secretariat and Subsidiary bodySecretariat and Subsidiary body

The main functions of the secretariat make practical arrangements for sessions of the make practical arrangements for sessions of the

Convention Convention monitor implementation of the commitments under the monitor implementation of the commitments under the

ConventionConvention assist Parties in implementing their commitments and assist Parties in implementing their commitments and

support negotiations, including through the provision of support negotiations, including through the provision of substantive analysis substantive analysis

coordinate with the secretariats of other relevant coordinate with the secretariats of other relevant international bodies, notably the GEF and its the IPCC and international bodies, notably the GEF and its the IPCC and other relevant conventionsother relevant conventions

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Subsidiary Body

two permanent subsidiary bodiestwo permanent subsidiary bodies Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice

(SBSTA) (SBSTA) - to provide the COP with advice on scientific, - to provide the COP with advice on scientific, technological and methodological matters technological and methodological matters - link between the scientific information provided by - link between the scientific information provided by expert sources and the policy-oriented needs of the COPexpert sources and the policy-oriented needs of the COP

Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) - to give advice to the COP on all matters concerning the - to give advice to the COP on all matters concerning the implementation of the Convention implementation of the Convention - to examine the information in the national - to examine the information in the national communications and emission inventories submitted by communications and emission inventories submitted by Parties in order to assess the Convention’s overall Parties in order to assess the Convention’s overall effectiveness. effectiveness.

Temporary subsidiary bodiesTemporary subsidiary bodies

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Principles

The Parties should protect the climate system with The Parties should protect the climate system with common common but differentiated responsibilities, precautionary principle and but differentiated responsibilities, precautionary principle and sustainable development rightsustainable development right

the developed country Parties should take the lead in the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof (Article 3.1) (Article 3.1)

The specific needs and special circumstances of developing The specific needs and special circumstances of developing country Parties should be given full consideration. (Article 3.2)country Parties should be given full consideration. (Article 3.2)

The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects (Article 3.3)mitigate its adverse effects (Article 3.3)

The Parties have a right to, and should, promote sustainable The Parties have a right to, and should, promote sustainable development. (Article 3.4)development. (Article 3.4)

The Parties should cooperate to promote a supportive and The Parties should cooperate to promote a supportive and open international economic system (Article 3.5) open international economic system (Article 3.5)

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Differentiated Responsibilities Differentiated Responsibilities

• Commitment Commitment of all parties (Article 4.1)of all parties (Article 4.1)

①① Develop national inventories of anthropogenic emissions Develop national inventories of anthropogenic emissions

②② Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update programs Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update programs containing measures to mitigate climate change containing measures to mitigate climate change

③③ Promote technologies, practices and processes that control Promote technologies, practices and processes that control and reduce GHGsand reduce GHGs

• Commitment of Annex I parties (Article 4.2)Commitment of Annex I parties (Article 4.2)

- Achieving their committed emission reduction targets to 1990 level - Achieving their committed emission reduction targets to 1990 level by 2000.by 2000.

• Commitment of Annex II parties (Article 4.3, 4.5)Commitment of Annex II parties (Article 4.3, 4.5)

- Provide new and additional financial resources, and the transfer of, or - Provide new and additional financial resources, and the transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound technologies and know-how to other access to, environmentally sound technologies and know-how to other Parties(developing countries)Parties(developing countries)

Commitments

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All Parties should report on the steps they are taking to implement the All Parties should report on the steps they are taking to implement the Convention Convention

submit a report of GHG inventories and sinks which followed COP’s submit a report of GHG inventories and sinks which followed COP’s guideline and methodology guideline and methodology Deliver research, polices and acts on GHGs or climate change Deliver research, polices and acts on GHGs or climate change Since 1996, Annex I Parties are requested to submit national Since 1996, Annex I Parties are requested to submit national

communications and GHG inventories to the secretariat by April 15 in communications and GHG inventories to the secretariat by April 15 in each yeareach year

Each non-Annex I Party shall submit its initial national communication Each non-Annex I Party shall submit its initial national communication within three years of the entry into force of the Convention for that within three years of the entry into force of the Convention for that Party, or of the availability of financial resources. Party, or of the availability of financial resources. (** submitting initial report is a precondition for the participation in the Kyoto mechanism)a precondition for the participation in the Kyoto mechanism)

Annex I parties: details on the policies or acts, effectiveness analysis. Annex I parties: details on the policies or acts, effectiveness analysis. Submit initial report Submit initial report within 6 month of the entry into force of the within 6 month of the entry into force of the Convention Convention

IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

methodologies for estimating anthropogenic emissions by sources and methodologies for estimating anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in calculation of legally-binding removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in calculation of legally-binding targets during the first commitment period.targets during the first commitment period.

National Communication

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UNFCCC Negotiation Process

Conference of the parties (COP)

The highest decision-making authority The highest decision-making authority has an annual meeting among parties;has an annual meeting among parties; review implementation of the Conventionreview implementation of the Convention mainly a political processmainly a political process assisted by SBSTA, SBI in decision-makingassisted by SBSTA, SBI in decision-making

Main issues

Annex I parties’ emission reduction target, timing Annex I parties’ emission reduction target, timing of developing countries’ emissions reduction, of developing countries’ emissions reduction, technology transfer, adaptation of flexible technology transfer, adaptation of flexible mechanism, etc. mechanism, etc.

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1995 - COP 1, The Berlin Mandate1995 - COP 1, The Berlin Mandate Established a 2-year Analytical and Assessment Phase (AAP), to negotiate a

"comprehensive menu of actions" for countries to pick from and choose future options to address climate change which for them, individually, made the best economic and environmental sense.

1996 - COP 2, Geneva, Switzerland Accepted the scientific findings on climate change offered by the IPCC in its second Accepted the scientific findings on climate change offered by the IPCC in its second

assessment (1995); assessment (1995); Called for "legally binding mid-term targets."

1997 - COP 3, Kyoto, Japan1997 - COP 3, Kyoto, Japan Adopted the Kyoto Protocol (CDM, ET,JI)

1998 - COP 4, Buenos Aires1998 - COP 4, Buenos Aires Adopted a 2-year "Plan of Action" to advance efforts and to devise mechanisms for

implementing the Kyoto Protocol, to be completed by 2000. 1999 - COP 5, Bonn, Germany 1999 - COP 5, Bonn, Germany

• Discussed the emission target of Developing countries 2000 - COP 6, The Hague, Netherlands2000 - COP 6, The Hague, Netherlands

The discussions evolved rapidly into a high-level negotiation over the major political issues

Unable to reach agreement on some of the key outstanding issues because of different viewpoint among U.S, Japan, Australia and EU

Planned adopting a comprehensive and balanced package of decisions on Kyoto Protocol

Main Issues of Conference of Parties (COP)

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2001 - COP 6 part 2, Bonn, Germany

Agreed on all the operational details of the Kyoto Protocol w/o U.S.

2001 - COP 7, Marrakech, Morocco 2001 - COP 7, Marrakech, Morocco

Decided operational rules for international emissions trading among

parties to the Kyoto Protocol and for the CDM and joint implementation

2002 - COP 8, New Delhi, India• Emphasized the continued smooth operation of the Climate Convention,

settled statistics and discussed Post Kyoto Protocol

2003 - COP 9, Milan, Italy• Decided on definitions and modalities for including afforestation and

reforestation activities under the CDM; the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF); and the Least Developed Countries (LDC) Fund.

2004 - COP 10, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Unofficial discussion on Emission Reduction Target

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2005 - COP 11/MOP 1, Montréal, Canada

Agreement on text for future action under the Kyoto Protocol

Article 3.9

setting out a process under the UNFCCC on a dialogue for

enhancing implementation of the Convention. 2006 - COP 12/MOP 2, Nairobi, Kenya

Negotiating commitments beyond 2012 for countries under the

Kyoto Protocol and Stern report on the result of the extensive

review of the economics of climate change

2007 - COP 13/MOP 3, Bali, Indonesia

Agreement on a timeline and structured negotiation on the post

2012 framework (a successor to the Kyoto Protocol).

These negotiations would take place during 2008 (leading to COP

14/MOP 4 in Poznan, Poland) and 2009 (leading to COP 15/MOP 5

in Copenhagen).

2008 - COP 14/MOP 4, Poznań, Poland

Continue to discuss on a new target

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Bali Roadmap Bali Roadmap Negotiate the emissions targets of Annex I parties to

succeed the limits set by the Kyoto Protocol, which Protocol, which expire in 2012.expire in 2012.

Encouraged the participation of U.S.

Re-emerging of U.S. with positive attitude

The major developing countries to agree in principle to The major developing countries to agree in principle to firm targets in the future firm targets in the future

Industrialized countries to commit to emissions cuts of Industrialized countries to commit to emissions cuts of 25-40% from 1990 levels by 2020.25-40% from 1990 levels by 2020.

Nations should commit to greenhouse gas emissions Nations should commit to greenhouse gas emissions reduction appropriate to their states of developmentreduction appropriate to their states of development

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Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol • COP1 in 1995

- Berlin Mandate: agreed on the adoption of a legally - Berlin Mandate: agreed on the adoption of a legally binding international treaty binding international treaty

• Adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997Adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997

Entry into Force of the Kyoto Protocol• Russia deposited the instrument of ratification in Russia deposited the instrument of ratification in

November 2004November 2004• Entered into force on 16 February 2005. Entered into force on 16 February 2005.

The Kyoto Protocol: adoption & entry into The Kyoto Protocol: adoption & entry into forceforce

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< Main Contents >< Main Contents >

Greenhouse Greenhouse GasesGases

COCO22, CH, CH44, N, N22O, HFCs, PFCs, SFO, HFCs, PFCs, SF66

AnnexⅠ AnnexⅠ Countries’ Countries’ Mandatory Mandatory Reduction Reduction TargetsTargets

Reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by an Reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by an average of 5.2% below 1990 levelsaverage of 5.2% below 1990 levels from 2008 to from 2008 to 2012 (the first commitment period).2012 (the first commitment period).

Sets differentiated reduction targets from nation Sets differentiated reduction targets from nation to nation (Assigned amounts and emission to nation (Assigned amounts and emission reduction targets varies from -8% toreduction targets varies from -8% to +10%: USA+10%: USA -7%, Japan -6%, EU-7%, Japan -6%, EU -8%, Australia-8%, Australia +8%, etc.)+8%, etc.)

OthersOthers

Introduce the Kyoto MechanismIntroduce the Kyoto Mechanism

: The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), : The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI), Emissions Trading (ET)Joint Implementation (JI), Emissions Trading (ET)

Allow for generation of carbon sink credits Allow for generation of carbon sink credits

36

R.FED & UKRAINE

0%W&E EUROPE -8%

CANADA - 6%

US - 7%

AUSTRALIA +8%

JAPAN -6%

N. ZEALAND 0%

• 38 countries take 38 countries take reduction/limitation reduction/limitation commitments - commitments - overall reduction of overall reduction of 5.2% below 1990 5.2% below 1990 emission levelsemission levels

• Non-compliance - emission < allowance : add the difference to the allowance

of next commitment period - emission > allowance : subtract from the allowance of the

next commitment period. (subtract 130% of excessive emissions)

Emissions Reduction Commitment

37

1

Global efforts

to respond to

climate

change

following the

UNFCCC

3

the Kyoto

Mechanism →

the Carbon

Market created

Main Implications of the Kyoto Protocol

2

Legally

binding ER

commitments

of Annex I

parties

38

Main provisions Defined quantified GHG emissions reduction targets for

Annex I parties Introduced 3 market mechanisms, namely the Kyoto

Mechanism -Joint Implementation, the Clean Development Mechanism, International Emission Trading (Article 6, 12, 17 respectively)

Allow to achieve emissions reduction target through international cooperation (Article 4)

Others: Prepare a national system for the estimation of

anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases (Article 5)

All parties need consider their common but differentiated responsibilities (Article 10)

Developed countries to provide financial resources and the transfer of technology (Article 11)

The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol

39

The Kyoto Mechanisms: Art. 6, 12, 17

Joint Implementation CDM

A developed country can receive "emissions reduction units" when it helps to finance projects that reduce net greenhouse-gas emissions in another developed country

Industrialized countries with a greenhouse gas reduction commitment (called Annex 1 countries) to invest in projects that reduce emissions in developing countries as an alternative to more expensive emission reductions in their own countries.

Emissions Trading (ET))

An Annex I Party may transfer to or acquire emission quotas from another Annex I Party.

CoConference of Parties CoConference of Parties

Developed Countries (corporate)


Developing Countries (Corporate)

Developing Countries (Corporate)



JI, ET CDM

Transfer/registration of emission credits & assigned amount

Certify, issue CERs

40

Conditions for entry into force: Article 25

For the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol,

• The Kyoto Protocol shall enter into force on the The Kyoto Protocol shall enter into force on the 90th day after90th day after the date on which the date on which not less than 55 not less than 55 ParParties to the UNFCCC, incorporating Annex I ties to the UNFCCC, incorporating Annex I Parties which accounted in total for Parties which accounted in total for at least 55% at least 55% of the total COof the total CO2 2 emissions for 1990 of the Annex I emissions for 1990 of the Annex I PartieParties, have deposited their instruments of s, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession. ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.

USA EU Russia Japan Canada Australia

36.1% 24.2% 17.4% 8.5% 3.3% 2.1%

<Annex I parties’ CO2 emission percentage in 1990>

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AustraliaAustralia 108108AustriaAustria 92 92BelgiumBelgium 92 92BulgariaBulgaria 92 92CanadaCanada 94 94CroatiaCroatia 95 95Czech RepublicCzech Republic 92 92DenmarkDenmark 92 92EstoniaEstonia 92 92European CommunityEuropean Community 92 92FinlandFinland 92 92FranceFrance 92 92GermanyGermany 92 92GreeceGreece 92 92HungaryHungary 94 94IcelandIceland 110110IrelandIreland 92 92ItalyItaly 92 92JapanJapan 94 94LatviaLatvia 92 92

LiechtensteinLiechtenstein 92 92LithuaniaLithuania 92 92LuxembourgLuxembourg 92 92MonacoMonaco 92 92NetherlandsNetherlands 92 92New ZealandNew Zealand 100100NorwayNorway 101101PolandPoland 94 94PortugalPortugal 92 92RomaniaRomania 92 92Russian FederationRussian Federation 100100SlovakiaSlovakia 92 92SloveniaSlovenia 92 92SpainSpain 92 92SwedenSweden 92 92SwitzerlandSwitzerland 92 92UkraineUkraine 100100U.K.U.K. 92 92U.S.A.U.S.A. 93 93

Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol(percentage of base year or period)

Quantified emission limitation or reduction commitment

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EU Burden SharingBurden Sharing Target of the EU Burden Sharing Target of the EU

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Ultimate goal of Climate Change Conventions Ultimate goal of Climate Change Conventions

““stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”climate system”

Promoting environmentally sound technology and Promoting environmentally sound technology and sustainable developmentsustainable development

Implications of Implications of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol

1. The first international convention aiming emissions reduction

2. Allow different obligations to encourage global participation

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Implications of the Kyoto Protocol

legally binding under international lawlegally binding under international law (Framework Convention on Climate Change, (Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed in 1992, signed in 1992,

only committed nations to "aim" to stabilize emissions )only committed nations to "aim" to stabilize emissions ) Set the emissions reduction as a global trend Set the emissions reduction as a global trend

A step stone for iterated reviewing of adequacy of the A step stone for iterated reviewing of adequacy of the Commitments and Further ReductionsCommitments and Further Reductions

Trigger the further international efforts to prevent Trigger the further international efforts to prevent climate changeclimate change

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Questions and CommentsQuestions and Comments

Climate Change & International Treaties

Documents

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