Climate Change in the Arctic:A Landscape of Conflict or Cooperation?

EEA / OSCE Workshop, Copenhagen 28th of February 2013

Dennis Tänzler, Head Climate & Energy Policies adelphi

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Introduction

Key Questions:

• How is climate change related to peace and security in the Arctic?

• How can recent developments be assessed in terms of security challenges?

• How can future cooperation be supported?

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Climate Change, Conflicts and Stability

© UNHCR/H.Caux/December 2005

Fragility: Changing distribution

of resources and inadequate

management of climate impacts

may erode the social contract –

and may (further) destabilise

states.

Resources: Competition over

resources (land, water,

energy, food, labour, income,

…) will increase.

Borders: Sea-level rise will question

the territorial integrity of states and

it may exacerbate unresolved

maritime issues

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“Regions at risk”

Already fragile/ unstable states are primarily affected by climate change

German Advisory Council on Global Change (WGBU) (2007)

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Climate Change and Security in the Arctic?

Cooperation or Conflict in the Arctic?

• Illuisat Declaration, 28 May 2008:“We will work to promote safety of life at sea in the Arctic Ocean, including through bilateral and multilateral arrangements between or among relevant states.”

• Canada’s First Defense Strategy 2008:

“[..] changes in the Arctic could also spark an increase in illegal activity, with important implications for Canadian sovereignty and security and a potential requirement for additional military support.”

• Norwegian Foreign Policy on the High North 2008:

“[..] the Armed Forces play an important role by virtue of their operational capabilities with the emphasis on maintaining a presence and upholding national sovereignty in the North.”

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Climate Change and Security in the Arctic?

Selected Security Dimensions (Scoping Study by adelphi et al. 2010)

• Economic and Environmental Dimension• Resource Claims (“gold rush”, new geopolitical constellations)

• New Transportation Routes (internal or international waters?)

• Politico-Military Dimension• Territorial Claims (claims for extension of continental shelfs )

• Militarisation (strengthening of armed forces in the Arctic)

• Human Security Dimension • Impacts on Indigenous Communities (representation of Inuits)

• 2nd order Climate Security Impacts • Impacts of Albedo effect and further extraction of Arctic fossil

fuels

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Security Developments in the Arctic and beyond

Economic and Environmental Dimension

• Resource Claims (“gold rush”?):

• Number of new wells drills expected to be small despite interest• Energy landscape is changing: fracking and unconventional gas

as a barrier for extraction activities (>>cost factor)• Low probability for militarisation

• Northwest Passage as new transportation route

• Rapid sea ice retreat: predictions of an ice-free Arctic by 2035• Conflict such as that on the NWP between Canada & US: low

probability of violent conflict or even war• AC 2011: agreement on coordinating search & rescue indicates

willingness to cooperate (2013: oil spill preparedness)

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Security Developments in the Arctic and beyond

Politico-Military Dimension

• Territorial Claims for extension of continental shelfs to expand EEZ

• Submission: Norway (approved) and Russia (improved data needed). Canada and Denmark expected to follow.

• Overlapping claims not clear yet. Probability of militarised conflicts, however, low – even if Russian claim is not approved

• Militarisation (strengthening of armed forces in the Arctic)

• All countries are increasing military capabilities (e.g. Russia’ Arctic brigade; Canada army training base etc. )

• All Arctic coastal states stress peaceful cooperation – keeping defense questions away from Arctic Council

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Security Developments in the Arctic and beyond

Human Security Dimension

• Impacts on Indigenous Communities (Inuit):

• Sea ice loss opens up opportunities for fishing for some of the Arctic’s approximate four million inhabitants

• However, loss of sea ice also means coastal communities have less protection from storms etc.

• Thawing permafrost destroys vital infrastructure & can threaten indigenous communities’ traditional subsistence lifestyle.

• Current conflict at CITES on climate change impact on polar bears: – US/ Russia proposal to ban polar bear trade – opposed by Canada, Norway, Denmark and Inuit

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Security Developments in the Arctic and beyond

2nd order Climate Security Impacts

• Extraction of Arctic fossil fuels will increase climate insecurity

• UNEP Chief Achim Steiner on the Arctic (UNEP Year Book 2013 ):

“[…] the rush to exploit these vast untapped reserves have consequences that must be carefully thought through by countries everywhere, given the global impacts and issues at stake.”

• Drilling of oil & gas resources would add 520 mio tonnes of CO 2 a year to global emissions by 2020 (equal to entire emissions of Canada)

• As a result climate change may turn in fact serve as threat multiplier for water- and food security related risks around the worlds.

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Entry Points for increased Arctic Cooperation

Entry Point 1: Accept a multi-level cooperation architecture•Due to the multitude of actors and security issues not one single organizations is able to ensure peace and stability (e.g. Arctic Council)•Cooperation & conflict in the Arctic two sides of the same coin: Cooperation of the A-5 needs to be embedded in a broader governance framework

Entry Point 2: Strengthen Environmental Cooperation & Dialogue •Arctic Council proves to be an appropriate platform to address environmental security risks in the Arctic. This role should be strengthened•Arctic Impact Assessments needs to take a global perspective when it comes to 1st and 2nd order climate security impacts

Entry Point 3: Promote Sustainable Energy and Livelihoods•Build partnerships to design / implement policy measures such as low carbon and green growth strategies for the Arctic and globally.•Address human security concerns and develop concepts to balance competing interests and compensate for climate change related losses

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Please find more information at www.climate-diplomacy.org

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