Pastoralism in dryland areas. A case study in sub-Saharan Africa
Climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and implications for the “Future of...
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Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa: Consequences and
Implications for the “Future of Pastoralism”
P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, A. Ayantunde, M. Said, M. Herrero and A. Notenbaert
THE FUTURE OF PASTORALISM IN AFRICAInternational conference to debate research findings and policy options, Addis Ababa, 21-23 March 2011
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Pastoralists and climate risk
Oromiya Region, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens
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Current climate variability
Figure 1: Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kajiado district from 1982 to end of 2009. Source: unpublished ILRI analysis.
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Climate variability, Niger
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Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality
0
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Jan-82
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Jan-90
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Jan-08
ND
VI
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TLU
per
sq
km
Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya
Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya
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Management strategies for climate risk
PHOTO HERE of Ndulenge
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Climate Change
Image of the Future
Image of the Future
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Region Jun-Aug Dec-Jan
Sahara Small decrease(5-20%)
Inconsistent
West Africa Inconsistent Inconsistent
East Africa Small increase (5-20%) Inconsistent
Southern Africa Inconsistent Large decrease (>20%)
GCM consistency in regional precipitation projections for 2090-2099 (SRES A1B). IPCC, 2007
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Coefficient of variation (%) of the change in length of growing period for an ensemble of 14 GCMs
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Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall event
Ericksen et al, 2011
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Unpublished IRLI analysis
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Doherty et al 2009
East Africa:Simulated plant funtional types:
(top) 20th century
(bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one climate model)
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Implications for herds, livelihoods
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Photo: P. Little 2011
Thank you…