Climate change impacts in Eastern

Africa Sub-region: What next?

Insights from ASARECA Experience

Presentation made at EA-Sub-region

Workshop on CSA (29-09-14)

By

Hezron Mogaka, Program Manager, NRM

ASARECA

h.mogaka@asareca.org

Key argument

The Eastern Africa sub-region is one of

the most vulnerable regions to impacts

of climate change, but with

considerable potential to minimise the

effects of such changes through the

deployment of innovative institutions

Structure of the presentation

Key characteristics of the EA sub-region

Documented impacts of climate variability &

change

Strategic areas of intervention to minimise

climate-induced impacts

ASARECA Initiatives in the sub-region

Lessons learnt/success factors

Opportunities

Conclusions

About ASARECA

ASARECA: Established 1994 as a not

for profit sub-regional research

organisation comprised of 11 member

countries: Burundi, D.R. Congo, Eritrea,

Ethiopia, Madagascar, Kenya, Rwanda,

South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania Uganda.

Mission: To enhance regional collective

action in:

Agricultural research for dvepment,

Extension and

Agricultural training and education

To promote:

Economic growth,

Reduction of poverty and hunger

Enhance sustainable use of resources

in ECA.

Climate Smart Agriculture: New paradigm for African agriculture?

Based on the challenges and existing opportunities,

agriculture must be transformed to feed the increasing

population & provide the basis for economic growth and

poverty reduction

Agricultural productivity – climate change nexus

(transition to agricultural production systems that are):

①More productive

② Use inputs more

efficiently

③More resilient to risks &

shocks

① Enhance food security

& nutrition

②Mitigate climate change

③ Conservation of natural

capital & sustain the

flow of vital ecosystem

services

Key characteristics – contributing to

increased vulnerability of populations to CC

Global status of water resources

Effects of increasing seasonal variability

Accelerated loss of vegetation cover

Forest loss and hence loss of key ecosystem services

Ethiopia - Between 1990

and 2005, the country

lost 14% of its forests or

21,000 km²

Kenya - in 1963, forest

covered 10% of land in

Kenya and by 2006 that

dropped to 1.7%

Tanzania - between 1990

and 2005 an estimated

412,000 ha/yr were

cleared, i.e., about 1.1%

of the total forest area

Country July 1, 2013

projection

Average

relative

annual

growth (%)

Average

absolute

annual

growth

Estimated

doubling

time (Years)

Ethiopia 86,614,000 2.67 2,253,000 26

D. R. Congo 74,618,000 3.23 2,334,000 22

Tanzania 45,950,000 2.69 1,204,000 26

Kenya 43,291,000 3.01 1,266,000 23

Uganda 35,363,000 3.61 1,232,000 20

Sudan 35,150,000 2.52 863,000 28

Madagascar 21,852,000 2.75 585,000 26

Rwanda 10,780,000 2.63 276,000 27

South Sudan 10,334,000 4.40 436,000 16

Burundi 9,023,000 2.36 208,000 30

Eritrea 4,980,000 4.05 194,000 17

Total 377,955,000 3.08 10,851,000 24

Nutrition status at a glance

Melting of Mt. Kilimanjaro glaciers

An estimated 82 % of the icecap

that covered Mt Kilimanjaro

surveyed in 1912 is now gone.

According to some projections, if

the recession continues at the

present rate, the majority of the

glaciers on Kilimanjaro could

vanish in the next 15 years

Any Evidence of Climate change in E. Africa?

Documented impacts of climate variability

Major drought years and changes in GDP in the EAC countries (Source: Seitz and Nyangena (2009))

Drought

years

Rainfall

deficiency

in

%

Agricultural

GDP loss

in %

GDP

loss in %

Loss in export

earnings in %

1970/71 15.2 0.50 0.07 17.00

1978/79 22.0 1.58 1.13 7.98

1980–1983 29.0 27.0 10.00 20.00

1990/91 10.2 0.22 0.43 17.50

1992–1994 11.9 3.64 1.60 9.00)

1999/2000 7.0 11.18 1.44 8.48

Suppressed maize productivity – Kenya is drought prone and

in some years maize prodn has been suppressed by 50%

Source: Tea Research Foundation

y = 11.429x2 - 134.57x + 2386

R2 = 0.824

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

1969 1979 1989 1999 2009

Year

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

)

There is a rainfall decrease of 65mm (R² = 0.803) for

every ten-year period average

Rainfall Trends in Kericho (Source: Tea Research Foundation)

21 February, 2016 Tea Research Foundation

Source: Tea Board of Kenya (TBK) Statistics

Drought Drought Drought

Total tea production and average yields in

Kenya (Source: TRF)

Strategic areas of intervention to minimise

climate-induced impacts

Creation of knowledge and information hub on

climatic conditions – long-term & downscaled

Enhanced application of ICT in dissemination of

seasonal and climate information

Establishment of learning platforms across

borders

Promotion of market-lead innovations for the

diversification of livelihoods

Sustainable management of ecosystems

Efficient use of agricultural water (AW

productivity) & intensification of ISFM

ASARECA Interventions in the sub-region

1. Improving agricultural water productivity, ISFM

2. Crop-livestock integration

3. Sustainable agricultural intensification

4. Promotion of CA

5. Use of ICT in disseminating seasonal information

Community-Based Integrated Watershed Management

Afforestation with multi-purpose trees

Community mobilization

Trenches to control runoff

Water and soil conservation technologies

Moisture

management – crop

residue

Use of ridges

Rehabilitation-fodder spp

Use of micro-pits Use of tie-ridges

Water dams

Pasture establishment

– fodder, rehabilitation Use of terraces Use of Zai pits

Agricultural landscape transformation through IWM

Pits with animal manure

Improving efficiency of water use in smallholder

agricultural systems Traditional watering system Mechanised system

Promising technologies and innovations

Improved feed

production

Increased

maize

productivity

(from 0.5 tons

to 3 tons/ha)

Enabling climate data management

Installed community-

based rain-gauges

Downscaled forecasting

– reduction of climate

related risks – 2,000

farmers receiving climate

information every month

(SMS)

3. Climate Smart Technologies Promoted

Promoted rainwater water harvesting

and storage into underground tanks

Stored water used for market oriented

vegetable production under drip

irrigation. Water pumped using gender

friendly treadle after modification by

ASARECA

Promoted drought resistant Brachiaria

mulato and Panicum maximum to

sustain dairy production

Disseminated Napier grass production

under semi-arid conditions using the

“Tumbukiza technique”.

Impact CSA Agriculture promoted at 512 households

in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi.

Through projects interventions, fodder

availability increased by 76%; milk yield by

78.7% and average cash income by 52.3%.

Yield of Napier under Tumbukiza increased

from 3t ha-1 to 6.9t ha-1 (230% increment).

Forage seed and B.mulato planting material

brought a net income of US $ 1,360 per acre

per year in Uganda

Promotion of striga resistant sorghum varieties

High yield: Striga resistant Zero yield: Susceptible variety

SUSTAINABLE INTENSIFICATION OF SORGHUM –LEGUME SYSTEM TO IMPROVE LIVELIHOOD AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN ECA

Sorghum (SESO3 in a farmers’ field)

Sorghum-cowpea products

Pearl millet innovations for improved

livelihoods in drought-prone areas of

Eastern and Central Africa (ECA)

Success factors

1) Use of innovation & learning platforms to facilitate

interaction among stakeholders along the value

chain

2) Capacity strengthening of pastoralists and communities to enhance adoption and utilization of TIMPs - working with communities to strengthen local governance/institutional systems

3) Market/incentive driven approach

Working towards improving market access

Enhancing competitiveness of the target VCs

Demonstrating the value of environmental conservation in

community livelihoods

Opportunities

Brighter side of African agriculture

4 of the world’s 30 fastest growing economies are in ECA

sub-region (IMF World Economic Outlook)

Rwanda – 7.7 (14)

D. R Congo - 7.1 (21)

Ethiopia - 7.0 (23)

Tanzania - 6.5 (29)

Africa is a new frontier for agricultural expansion –

opening up new areas, sustainable intensification,

adoption of efficient technologies, shift to irrigated &

mechanised agriculture, growing political support to

agriculture & investment in climate smart agriculture

Irrigation potential – supplemental, deficit

Opportunities for fast-tracking adoption of CSA

Diversity of existing institutional frameworks for

cooperation (local, national and sub-regional)

Increasing interest and support in CSA and

Market integration across the sub-region –

hence expanding market for CSA-based value

chains

Challenge: How to shift away from piece meal,

project-oriented and externally supported

initiatives

Thank you – we appreciate the support from the WB,

EU, DFID, CIDA, SIDA, COMESA, & IDRC