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IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India
Climate Change impacts and Measures to develop
National Adaptation Plan in Japan
17th December, 2013
Yoshihiro MizutaniOffice of International Strategy on Climate Change,
Global Environment BureauMinistry of the Environment, Japan (MOEJ)
IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India
Contents
1. Climate Change Impacts in Japana. Temperatureb. Precipitationc. Heavy Rain Disasterd. Habitat Change to the Northe. Agriculture
2. Past Countermeasures for Adaptation to Climate Change by Ministry of the Environment, Japan
3. Planning and Implementation of adaptation plan4. Three Basic Concepts of National Adaptation Plan5. Steps towards Adaptation Plan
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IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India
Climate change and future prospect in JapanRise of average temperature (1.15 degree during this 100 years)Rise by 2.1-4.0 degree by the end of 21st century, compared with 1980-99(prediction using scenario and model in IPCC AR4)
1. Climate Change Impacts in Japana. Temperature (1/2)
Meteorological Agency(2012) MEXT, MA, MOE, Japan(2009)
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Deviation of annual average temperature in Japan
1.15℃/100yrs
Diff
eren
ce fr
om 1
981-
2010
ave
rage
tem
pera
ture
(℃)
Aver
age
tem
pera
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rise
in J
apan
(℃)
Observed Value
IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India
1. Climate Change Impacts in Japana. Temperature (2/2)2010 summer- Average temperature in Japan in summer was the highest since 1898.- Average temperature in North and East Japan in summer was the highest since 1946.- Average temperature in from north to west Japan in August was the highest since 1946.
2013summer- Average temperature in west Japan in summer was the highest since 1946.- 41 ℃ (day time) was recorded as the highest temperature in Japan since 1946 .
The number of patients* suffered from heat stroke
Reference: National Institute for Environmental Studies (2012) *Patients in 20major cities or districts in Japan
13,579
2,468
11,065
23 wards of Tokyo
5232712
33702182
3,190
10,357
15,180
(※) preliminary
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IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India
Frequency; >50mm/hour/year
1. Climate Change Impacts in Japanb. Precipitation (1/2)
Meteorological Agency(2012)
Frequency; >80mm/hour/year
changing compared with recent years
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Dev
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om 1
981-
2010
an
nual
ave
rage
pre
cipi
tatio
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m)
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uenc
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f clo
ud b
urst
per
1,0
00
obse
rvat
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poin
t
Freq
uenc
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f clo
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1,0
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IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India
1. Climate Change Impacts in Japanb. Precipitation (2/2)
Meteorological Agency(2012)
Typhoon No.12-August 30-September 6, 2011-1,652.5mm/72hr, totally 1814.5mm at Kamikitayama village (Nara prefecture)-Flood, mudslide, traffic hazard-68 dead, 16 missing in Wakayama, Nara, Mie prefecture
Typhoon No.15-September 15-22, 2011-Totally 1128.0mm at Misato-cho (Miyazaki prefecture), 30.5m/s wind at Edogawa-ku (Tokyo)-Flood, mudslide, blackout, traffic hazard-12 dead, 3 missing in Miyagi, Shizuoka, Aichi prefecture
Heavy rain in Northern part of Kyushu-July 11-14, 2012 -108mm/hour, 507.5mm/day at maximum at Aso city-Flood, debris flows, blackout, traffic hazard-21 people dead, 8 people missing in Kumamoto, Oita, Fukuoka prefecture
No.12No.15
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IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India
紀の川 宮川
北川
筑後川
松浦川 矢部川
嘉瀬川
本明川
菊池川
緑川
球磨川
大分川大野川
番匠川
五ヶ瀬川
小丸川
大淀川川内川
肝属川
六角川
吉野川
那賀川
土器川
重信川肱川
物部川仁淀川
渡川
千代川天神川日野川
斐伊川
江の川高津川
吉井川旭川
高梁川芦田川太田川
小瀬川佐波川
由良川
大和川
円山川
加古川揖保川
新川
九頭竜川
狩野川安倍川大井川
菊川
天竜川
豊川
矢作川庄内川
木曽川
鈴鹿川
雲出川 櫛田川
荒川
信濃川
関川
姫川黒部川
常願寺川
神通川庄川
小矢部川
手取川
山国川
久慈川
那珂川利根川
荒川
多摩川
鶴見川相模川
富士川
岩木川高瀬川
馬淵川
北上川
鳴瀬川
名取川
阿武隈川
米代川
子吉川
最上川赤川
遠賀川
雄物川
常呂川網走川
留萌川
石狩川
尻別川
後志利別川 沙流川
釧路川
十勝川
天塩川渚滑川
湧別川
阿賀野川
淀川
梯川
白川
鵡川
-0.50.5-0.70.7-0.90.9-1.01.0-1.11.1-1.51.5-2.02.0-3.03.0-5.05.0-10.010.0-
-0.50.5-0.70.7-0.90.9-1.01.0-1.11.1-1.51.5-2.02.0-3.03.0-5.05.0-10.010.0-
Disaster risks due to heavy rain are predicted to increase Possibilities of floods, which exceed final river maintenance target, are projected to be 1.8 – 4.4 times higher than current levels in Japan (based on the research for first-grade rivers in Japan)
Reference: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
Magnification of flooding in hydrographic basin
Magnification is a median of future magnification of flooding (2075-2099) divided by current magnification (1979-2003)
1. Climate Change Impacts in Japanc. Heavy Rain Disaster
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IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India
Future prediction shows that suitable water temperature for corals will shift northwards. However, coral habitats will be trapped between increased coral bleaching area and acidified area which are not suitable for coral growth. The habitat for tropical/subtropical corals around Japan might be decreased by half between 2020-2030 and lost completely between 2030-2040.
Reference:Yara, Y., M. Vogt, M. Fujii, H. Yamano, C. Hauri, M. Steinacher, N. Gruber and Y. Yamanaka, 2012: Ocean acidification limits temperature-induced poleward expansion of coral habitats around Japan,Biogeosciences, 9, 4955-4968. 8
1. Climate Change Impacts in Japand. Habitat Change to North
Changes in Coral Habitats shifting North between 2000 and Future (2040, 2060 and 2090)
- Mesh: indicator of acidification (saturation of aragonite) . Saturation of aragonite is decreased when carbon dioxide melts into the sea, and aragonite is dissolved when it is under 1.
- Green line: northern limit of tropical/subtropical coral habitat
- Yellow line: northern limit of temperature coral habitat
- Black line: 30 ℃ water temperature line (not suitable for coral habitat)
IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India
Yields of irrigated rice will be increased but the quality might be negatively impacted
Quality and crop situation of irrigated rice in 2010
Reference: Tomoya Watanabe (2012) “What level does climate change make impacts on agricultural production, how to address and how should agriculture, forestry and fishery sector tackle climate change? Research project funded by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.
Map of Japan shows: - Indicator of rice
production in each prefecture (number on prefecture)
- Ratio of Class 1 rice (colour of prefecture)
Number in the box shows: - the ratio of class 1 rice
in 2010 (upper box) - deviation from average
over last 5 years
Nation Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kanto
HokurikuChugoku/Shikoku
Kyushu Kinki
Tokai
Okinawa
Ratio of Class 1
Over 90 %
Less than 30 %
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1. Climate Change Impacts in Japane. Agriculture
IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India
Adverse Effect AdaptationDegradation of Crops(rice, fruits, etc.)
Breed Improvement
Increase of Disaster causedby heavy rains, typhoons, etc.
Improvement of Infrastructure
Effects to the eco-system(Habitat pattern change,Effect to Domestic Plants)
Establish a Corridor for native habitats (Green Pathway)
Risk of Heat Stress, Heat Strokes,Infectious Diseases, etc.
Greening in urban areas,Information DisseminationAwareness Raising
2. Past Countermeasures for Adaptation to Climate Change by Ministry of the Environment, Japan
Some Emerging Issues on Adverse Effects on Climate Change and Adaptation Activities to them in Japan
IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India
R and D Achievements
1994~2001
“Climate change impact in Japan”
2008 “Wise adaptation to climate change”
2009 “Comprehensive report on observation and prediction of climate change”
2010 “Approaches to climate change adaptation”
2011 “Statistic report and portal site for climate change impact”
2012 “New comprehensive report on observation and prediction of climate change”
Project for comprehensive
projection of climate change impacts
(2005-09)
Comprehensive Research on Climate
Change Impact Assessment and
Adaptation Policies (2010-14)
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2. Past Countermeasures for Adaptation to Climate Change by Ministry of the Environment, JapanPast Research and Development related to Adaptation and Climate Change Impact in Japan
IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, IndiaRef: Approaches to climate change adaptation (2010)(http://www.env.go.jp/en/earth/cc/adapt_guide/pdf/approaches_to_adaptation_en.pdf)
1. Analyze past observation data, review responses to climate change & extreme weather
2.Plan & implement monitoring ofclimate change and its impacts
3. Project future climate change and its impacts
4. Assess impacts, vulnerability & resilience; assess risk based on findings
5. Determine need for adaptation measures, determine priority
6. Design & implement adaptation measures
7. Track & assess progress & effects of adaptation measures
8. Conduct integrated adaptation measures, basic capacity enhancement
9. Communication and information sharing with citizens
10. Review & implement based on feedback & reassessment
Incorporate adaptation measures into existing plans,
programs, policies
10 steps for planning and implementation of adaptation plan
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3. Planning and Implementation of adaptation plan
IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India
National Adaptation
Plan
Risk management
Comprehensive and systematic measures
Collaboration with local governments
Risks in a lot of cases should be considered, including the case of beyond 2 degree target, even though mitigation measures is to be introduced as much as possible.
Adaptation measures should be promoted in local governments, where impacts are different from each condition, including climate, geography, culture and so forth.
Report from Central Environment Council in Jun. 2012 (provisional translation) 13
4. Three Basic Concepts of National Adaptation Plan
A number of impacts in various fields should be consisted in NAP, as a comprehensive plan of whole Japanese government.
IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India
Establish “Expert Committee on Climate Change Impact Assessment” at 114th Global Environmental Subcommittee, Central Environmental Council (2 July, 2013)
Summarize climate change impacts, risk assessment and future issues(around Jan, 2015)
Develop adaptation plan as a government-wide integrated effort (summer, 2015) ※ Periodical review (every 5 years)
• Extraction of priority areas/issues in short-term (- 10 years), middle-term (10-30 years) and long-term (30-100 years)
• Review at each ministry
• Further detailed projection of climate change in Japan to monitor extreme events
• Assessment on climate change impacts in Japan • Analysis on risk information
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5. Steps towards Adaptation Plan
IGES-TERI Policy Dialogue on “Shaping the Future Climate Change Regime”, Dec 16-17, 2013, New Delhi, India 15
Thank you for your kind attention
Contact:Yoshihiro MIZUTANI(Mr)