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Environmental health: protecting the ecosystems beyond the

Millennium Development Goals

Prof Colin D Butler ARC Future Fellow

November 24-27, 2013, Ibadan, Nigeria

Climate change health impacts, current adaptation

strategies and the future

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SummaryClimate change science

Climate change and health: primary, secondary and

tertiary effects.

Rich countries mostly to blame; poor countries will

suffer first, but rich countries will be affected

The best adaptation in poor countries is development,

but that needs equity, education and slower population

growth (including in Nigeria)

The health lobby must use its voice to call for energy

transformation.3

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Most radiation

absorbed by

Earth, warming it

solar strength varies slightly

Aerosols: net cooling

effect

Feedback - additional

GHGs

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Climate change:

basic science

some energy radiated

back to space as

infrared wavesSome infrared trapped

by minor atmospheric

gases, warming Earth

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CH4 CO2

Green house gases

N2O

Sulfate particles

Radiative forcing

NO2

CH4

O3

CH4

CO2

Slide adapted from one courtesy Prof

Steffen Loft, University of Copenhagen,

Denmark

wetlands, rice, tundra,

biomass burning,

deforestation

CO2 CH4, black carbon

CO2

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Global mean surface temperature: 1850-2012 Rainfall intensity : 1900-2011

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Sea Level: 1993-2012

Earth system

observations

Greenland ice melt 2013

Held, 2013

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Secondary

Tertiary

Primary

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Heat waves, fewer cold

waves, injuries, floods,

fires, occupational heat

Infectious diseases,

especially vector borne,

allergies, air pollutantssecondary

primary

tertiary

famine, conflict,

population

displacement, refugees

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Mentalhealth

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despair, economic loss,

exposure to asbestos,

mould

40.3o 7.1.13; 40.2o 8.1.13

Bundaberg 25.1.13

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Typhoon Haiyan - 2013

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Old location

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3650m

(13,000 feet)

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Waterscarcity

Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses:

• population pressure

• water shortage

• climate change affecting crops

• sea level rise

• pre-existing hunger

• armed conflict, current/recent

From UK Ministry of Defence[May RM, 2007 Lowy

Institute Lecture]

Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions

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CRICOS #00212K16Cairo, 2013

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“The dangerous impacts of

climate change can only be

discussed in terms of

nonlinear behavior.’’

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Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

“The difference between 2 and

4 degrees of warming ..

is civilisation’’

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very dangerous

catastrophic

IPCC 2013

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me

my nephew

a baby

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1. cyclone shelter, Bangladesh 2. market, Philippines

3. transport, Thailand 4. border, India - Bangladesh

1-3: the currently acceptable face of adaptation

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Burden of

Disease

(proportion)

Year widely accepted

now 2050?

PRIMARY (eg heat, injury,

productivity)

SECONDARY (e.g.

vector-borne diseases,

air pollution, allergies)

TERTIARY: (a

“systemic multiplier”)

famine, conflict, large-

scale migration,

economic collapse

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“Social vaccine”

“Demand will create a parachute”

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Growth in wind turbine size and capacity (1980—2009)

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source:”Beyond

Zero”

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We need to wake up!

running out of time

.. but we are all at risk; some of us sooner than later

problems far more than climate change but

sustainability solutions will deliver many co-benefits

We need radically new ways of thinking and doing

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