Climate Change, GLOF risk and glacial lake monitoring in Cordillera Apolobamba,

Bolivia

Bolivian Mountain Institute

Dirk Hoffmann

Instituto Boliviano de la Montaña - BMI

ICIMOD – The Mountain InstituteInternational Workshop on Climate Change

Adaptation in Mountains

Nepal, 25-26 September 2011

rapid retreat of mountain glaciers

is the most visible sign of global warming

Preliminary considerations 1

what is happening with glaciers worldwide is probably also happening

– silently and largely invisible to the majority of the people –

to the ecosystems around the world

Preliminary considerations 2

given the present rate of climate change,

in 20 years´ time the world is likely to look very different

than what we can now imagine

Preliminary considerations 3

Climate Change is a fact. Scientists are only debating the velocity and

the magnitude of the impacts.

Climate Change is a reality in the Bolivian Andes

• Temperature, precipitation and humidity have changed considerably over last 50 years

• Temperature increase is now about 0.3 C per decade

• Temperature increase is higher at higher altitudes

Global warming in mountain regions

Source: Bradley et al. 2006

The 2-degrees target

• The UN Climate Change Convention calls for limiting global warming to levels that do not interfere dangerously with the global climate system.

• Political consensus: 2 degrees C as a limit

• Reality: This is no more possible („warming in the pipeline“)

• September 2009: Scientific conference in Oxford to discuss a world four degrees warmer (in 2100, compared to pre-industrial times)

Global temperature 500 - 2100

IPCC, 2001

Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels

What are the consequences for Bolivian glaciers?

Glacier retreat in Bolivia

• Due to global warming, the world’s tropical glaciers are retreating at an unprecedented rate.

• The accelerated melting of glaciers - as in most parts of the world - commenced around 1980.

• Tropical glaciers: Peru 70%, Bolivia 20%, Ecuador & Columbia 4%, rest of the world 1%

• According to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS), Bolivia holds 566 km² of glaciated area (data from 80s).

Direct visual impact

March 2007 October 2009

Laguna Moro Kholla, Cordillera Real

Photos: Hoffmann

Glacier retreat in the Cordillera Real• The volume changes of 21 glaciers in the Cordillera Real

have been determined between 1963 and 2006 using photogrammetric measurements.

• From this relationship, the ice volume loss of 376 glaciers has been assessed in this region.

• The results show that these glaciers lost 43% of their volume and 48% of their surface area between 1975 and 2006.

Cordillera Real: 50 % reduction in surface area and volume over the last 35 years.

Soruco, A., C. Vincent, B. Francou, and J. F. Gonzalez (2009), Glacier decline between 1963 and 2006 in the Cordillera Real, Bolivia, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03502, doi:10.1029/2008GL036238.

Huayna Potosí summit, 6.088m

August 2003 October 2009

El ejemplo del Chacaltaya

Izquierda: competencia de ski en los años 70 Derecha: el parche superior del Glaciar Chacaltaya, 2005

Glacier retreat across the tropical Andes

-1600

-1400

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0

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Cu

mu

lati

ve l

eng

th e

volu

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(m)

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0

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mu

lati

ve a

rea

evo

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²)

antizana 15A

antizana15b

yanamarey

broggi

pastoruri

uruashraju

Cajap

Zongo (area)

Charquini-S (area)

Chacaltaya (area)

Edson Ramírez, Instituto de Hidráulica e Hidrología (IHH)

Glacial lakes and outburst floods

• The recent forming of glacial lakes in the Andes dates from the end of the Little Ice Age (1550-1850), but has increased sharply in the 1980s.

• GLOFs have been reported from Peru (e.g. Huaráz, 1941), the Himalayas and other high mountain regions of the world.

• A first documented case for Bolivia occurred in the Keara watershed in the Cordillera Apolobamba in November 2009.

The Keara GLOF incident, November 2009

All photos: Martín Apaza Ticona

Apolobamba glacier lake inventory

• Undertaken by Daniel Weggenmann, Heidelberg University

• Following Huggel methodolgy:

- using easily available satellite images

- overview of all existing lakes

- determination of age, size, volume, growth rates, material of dam, distance to glacier

- classification according to risk potential

- field visit to selected glacial lakes

The Cordillera Apolobamba

• Apolobamba mountain range accounts for about 7.5% of the world’s tropical glaciers. Yet, there is almost no documentation available on glacial retreat.

The geographical setting: Apolobamba mountain

range • Northernmost part of the Eastern branch of the Andean Cordillera in Bolivia; bordering with Peru• 120 km long• About 250 km northwest of La Paz and north of Lake Titicaca• One of the least explored and least accessible mountain ranges in the Andes• Various peaks higher than 5,500 m

Apolobamba glacier area

Source: World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS)

Source: Google Earth

• Largest continuous glaciated area in Bolivia, with an extent of 220 km² (in the 1980s).

Glacier area loss in the Cordillera Apolobamba 1976 - 2009

Elaboration: R. Tarquino

Glacier retreat in Cordillera Apolobamba

1976 - 2009

Elaboration: Rodrigo Tarquino

Area loss more than 50%

Satelite image of Apolobamba glaciers (Cololo region)

Glacier lake Ulla Khaya

Glacier lake Laguna Isquillani

Results of glacier lake inventory

• From 1986 – 2008 the number of contemporary glacier lakes went up from 174 to 216

• Total lake area grew by aprox. 2.5 km²

• Information integrated in GIS data base

• List of the potentially most dangerous lakes

• Recommendations for future monitoring

The Apolobamba Glacier Lake Inventory

Daniel Weggenmann 2011

The participatory approach to glacial lake monitoring

• Monitoring system of ANMIN Apolobamba, an essential tool of park managment.

• Monitoring “by the people of the protected area”, i.e. park guards and local population.

• Assistance from NGOs and university.

• What is being monitored: Water bodies, glaciers, traditional types of potatoes, fauna, peat bogs (bofedales), climate, conflicts with wild life, mining, knowledge about traditional plants, tourism, project management, education, financial management...

Apolobamba Protected AreaÁrea Natural de Manejeo Integrado (ANMIN)

• Recognized as a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve in 1977.

• Expanded to Apolobamba Natural Area for Integrated Management in 2000 (now 483,743 ha).

• Altitudinal range from 800 to more than 6,000 metres.

• Declared in 1972 as National Reserve Ulla Ulla for the protection of the vicuna (240,000 ha).

Photo: Hoffmann

Map of Apolobamba

Source: SERNAP

Measuring high altitude lakes

Institutional set-up

University/Science

Ecological Institute/UMSA, La Paz

Oxford University, UK

Heidelberg University, Germany State

SERNAP – Protected Areas Administration

NGOs

WCS – Wildlife Conservation Society

BMI – Bolivian Mountain Institute

Local population

Perspectives

• Long term glacier and glacier lake monitoring as integral part of park management (SERNAP & local people) on the basis of thesis work and glacier lake inventory prepared by D. Weggenmann, Heidelberg University as part of thesis on GLOFs and risk management

• Definition and implementation of adaptation measures (local people, municipalities, NGOs)

• Continuing documentation and establishment of a Bolivian glacier archive (BMI)

• Accompanying scientific work:- R. Tarquino, Instituto de Ecología: consequences of glacier retreat for park management

- C.K. López, FLACSO Ecuador: water management by local indigenous communities

www.climate2011.net

Thank you for your attention!

Contact:

dirk.hoffmann@bolivian-mountains.org

Instituto Boliviano de la Montaña - BMI