Climate Change, Energy & Innovation: a UK historical ... · Coal & new steam technologies in C18...
Transcript of Climate Change, Energy & Innovation: a UK historical ... · Coal & new steam technologies in C18...
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Climate Change, Energy &Innovation:
a UK historical perspective
Prof. Peter PearsonCentre for Energy Policy & Technology
(ICEPT)
Finance, food and energy crisesSymposium for SCOPE
London General Assembly, 12th June 2009
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Why Explore Energy Histories?
“A lantern on the stern can help with navigation ahead.”• Studying a country’s energy & environmental histories• Helps appreciate
– Energy’s role in human development– Environmental & resource impacts & challenges– Innovation/penetration of fuels & technologies– ‘Path dependency’ & ‘lock-in’– Roles of markets, institutions & policy– Past & potential ‘Industrial Revolutions’
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Background: Energy System Transitions
Long collaboration with Roger FouquetOutputs: Long Run Estimates for Britain• Fuels/energy carriers (coal, gas, electricity,
petroleum)– Prices; Consumption; Expenditure
• Energy services (today: lighting)– Energy conversion efficiency of devices– Cost/price of services– Consumption
[See journal papers & Fouquet’s book - Heat, Power andLight: Revolutions in Energy Services, Edward Elgar(2008)]
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Energy & Britain’s First ‘Industrial Revolution’• C16th-19th transitions: traditional agricultural (
‘organic’: Wrigley) economy, held back by limited– Productivity of scarce land &– Flows of energy for food, clothing, housing & fuel
• Moved to a new regime: growth & living standardstransformed– By exploiting stock of fossil fuel (coal) for larger energy
flows– Along with innovations
• inc. steam engine• & other institutional, social & political innovations
• Coal & steam helped drive mechanisation,urbanisation & Britain’s ‘Industrial Revolution’
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Source: Snooks (1994) and others; see Fouquet and Pearson (1998) for details
-Figure 1. UK population & real GDP per capita
(year 2000 prices), 1300-2000
‘Black Death’ –bubonic plague
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Woodfuels
Coal
Fig. 2: UK final energy consumption 1500-1800 (TWh)
By 1650equal shares ofwoodfuel & coal
Fouquet & Pearson (2003) World Economics, 4(3)
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Coal & new steam technologies in C18
• Engines pumped water from coal & coppermines
• 1698: Savery’s patent• By 1733 110 Newcomen ‘atmospheric engines’
in 7 countries• 1769-1800: Watt’s separate condenser patent
– raised efficiency & royalties• Rotary steam engine
– Could drive machines: Watt (1782) & others• But by 1800, only 2200 steam engines in
mining & manufacturing– High steam & water power price differential
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• Steam/water power price differential graduallyovercome– By mobility advantage– & increased engine efficiency
• Higher pressure boilers (1840s)• Corliss valves (1860s)
• Steam let production move from water & windpower sites– Helped develop the factory system
– Especially textiles: Manchester - ‘Cottonopolis’• Railways & then ships
Steam: development & diffusion
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Ships
Collieries
GasWorks
PowerStations
DomesticIron
OtherIndustries
Railways
Fig. 3: UK Coal consumption by economic sectors,1800-2000 (TWh)
Coal prices fell,technologies improved –new productive uses for
coal & steam
Fouquet & Pearson (2003) World Economics, 4(3)
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Coal
Petrol-eum
Gas
Electricity
Fig. 4: UK final energy consumption,1800-2000 (TWh)
The rise and fall of coal for final uses
DepletionConcerns:
Jevons, TheCoal
Question
Fouquet & Pearson (2003) World Economics, 4(3)
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Charcoal
Coal
Fig. 5: Real consumer fuel prices,1500-1800 (p/kWh)
Fouquet & Pearson (2003) World Economics, 4(3)
C17 woodfuel
‘crisis
’?
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1550-1850:Energy price falling:
1550-1850: Energyintensity rising
Fig. 6
Inverserelationshipbetween:
Energyintensity(E/GDP)
and
Real energyprices
Fouquet & Pearson (2003) World Economics, 4(3)
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Long-Run Perspective
• But new technology diffusion took time– Major productivity effects of steam engines,
locomotives & ships only observable after 1850– A few steam-intensive industries
• Mining, textiles & metal manufactures• Accounted for >50% of industrial steam power, 1800-
1900
• Not just steam: electric light slow to dominate gas(40 years: 1880-1920)
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UK Environmental Issues: Air Pollution &Climate• Growing 19th UK concerns - little action:
– Alexis de Tocqueville - Manchester (1835):‘A sort of black smoke covers the city. Under this half daylight
300,000 human beings are ceaselessly at work…’– Little serious action until C20
• London’s long air pollution history– 1952 ‘Great London Smog’: est. 3500-4000 premature
deaths– 1956 Clean Air Act
• Then small particles & acid deposition• Now climate change & GHGs, including CO2
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Perspective on Energy System Transitions
• Transitions mean interactions between– Fuels & energy converting technologies– Infrastructures (transport networks, pipes & wires…)– Institutions (markets, companies, finance…)– Policy regimes (institutions, regulations…)– Economic variables (prices, income/output…)– Environment– & people…
• Complex, evolving systems– Must focus on much more than fuels & technologies
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Innovation & Energy Services: UK lighting
• What’s the energy for? Energy services:– illumination, transportation, hot food, comfortable
temperatures…• Evidence: innovation’s extraordinary potential to
– Lower costs, raise service quality & welfare• UK lighting services innovation
– Mostly after 1800• In fuels, technologies, infrastructures & production
– Lower lighting costs & rising incomes– Meant ‘revolutions’ in light use & quality
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’ – - 9
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Fouquet & Pearson (2006) Energy Journal, Vol. 27(1)
Figure 7. UK Consumption of Lighting from TallowCandles & Whale Oil (billion lumen-hours, 1711-1900)
Public services: C18street lighting starts inLondon
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Fouquet & Pearson (2006) Energy Journal, Vol. 27(1)
Candle Light –
Tallow (animal fat):smoky/smelly
Whale OilLight –
volatileprices
Figure 8. The Cost of Lighting from Tallow Candles &Whale Oil (£ per million lumen-hours, 1300-1900)
Innovation incandles &fats
NB: ‘Cost’ is marginal (i.e. running) cost
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Fig. 9. UK Consumption of Gas, Kerosene &Candle Light (billion lumen-hours)
Gaslight
Gaslight
Candle light Kerosene
1800-1850 1850-1900
Fouquet & Pearson (2006) Energy Journal, Vol. 27(1)
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Fig. 10. UK Consumption of Kerosene, Gas &Electric Light, 1900-2000 (billion lumen-hours)
1900-1950 1930-2000
Electriclight
Electriclight
Gas light
Fouquet & Pearson (2006) Energy Journal, Vol. 27(1)
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Fouquet & Pearson (2006) Energy Journal, Vol. 27(1)
Fig. 11. UK Price Ratio of Lighting from CompetingEnergy Sources, 1820-1950
Ratio >1means new
source costsmore than old
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Efficiency, 1000
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Light Use/cap, 6567
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Light price
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Fouquet & Pearson (2006) Energy Journal, Vol. 27(1)
Fig. 17.
Fig. 12. Indices of Key Lighting Variables in the UK(Log Scale, 1800 = 1), 1300-2000
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TotalLighting
Candles KeroseneGas
Electricity
Fouquet & Pearson (2006) Energy Journal, Vol. 27(1)
Fig. 13. UK Consumption of Lighting - Candles, Gas,Kerosene & Electricity (billion lumen-hours, 1700-2000)
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Some Lessons from UK Experience ofEnergy transitions
• Energy innovations can have profound effectson human development & welfare– But takes time for new fuels, technologies,
infrastructures & institutions to develop– There can be much inertia in our systems
• We were slow to recognise & addressenvironmental impacts
• Government policy can make a difference
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Turning over the capital stock takes time…• Thompson’s
Atmospheric Engine– Ran for 127 years in
coal mines (1791-1918)
• Bell Crank Engine– Ran 120 years
(1810-1930)
• Both in Science Museum,London
•Path dependence? First mover advantage?•UK mining & textile industries slow to adopt electricity
•Relative to chemicals & engineering, shipbuilding & vehicles
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The Future for Low Carbon Technologies?
• Two previous Industrial Revolutions were aboutmanufacturing– C18 revolution driven by textiles, iron & steam– end C19 2nd revolution: electricity, chemicals, petroleum
& mass production• Improved technology (energy & ICT) might help break
link between energy services, fuel demands &emissions– Could enhance macro-level productivity– Energy & ICT as General Purpose Technologies– Steam engines, ICE, electrification & ICT raised
productivity growth (but took decades)
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Climate Change & Low Carbon Technologies
• Two key features of GPT’s:– Technological Dynamism: continuous innovation in efficiency
of the technology, so costs fall/quality rises over time– Innovational Complementarities: new technology users
improve own technologies, find new uses• How to get there from here?
– Means more than substituting low carbon technologiesinto existing uses and institutions
– Low carbon technologies need capacity:• For continuous innovation & cost reduction• To change what we do with them & how• To be proactively sustainable
• And so contribute to a 3rd ‘Industrial Revolution’
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In what ways might bioenergy & renewableraw materials meet these challenges?
• For example, are there routes frompetrochemical complexes to sustainablebiorefineries :– Are there prospects for synergystic co-evolution of
energy & chemicals production• Around bio-based renewable raw materials?
– Analogous to the ways in which petroleum & chemicalsco-evolved in 2nd half of C20?
– Or might it be not synergy but antagonism?
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SourcesBennett, SJ & PJG Pearson (2009, forthcoming) ‘From petrochemical complexes to biorefineries? The
past and prospective coevolution of liquid fuels and chemicals production in the UK’, ChemicalEngineering Research and Design (ChERD)
Edquist, H and Henrekson, M (2006), ‘Technological Breakthroughs and Productivity Growth’,Research in Economic History, Vol. 24.
Fouquet, R (2008) Heat, Power and Light: Revolutions in Energy Services, Edward Elgar.Fouquet, R and Pearson, PJG (1998). ‘A Thousand Years of Energy Use in the United Kingdom’, The
Energy Journal, 19(4).Fouquet, R and Pearson, P.J.G. (2003). ‘Long Run Trends in Energy Services: The Price and Use of
Road and Rail Transport in the UK (1300-2000)’, Proceedings of the BIEE Conference, St John’sCollege Oxford, September: http://www.biee.org/downloads/conferences/HISLIG20.PDF
Mokyr, J (2007) ‘The Power of Ideas’, interview with B Snowden, World Economics 8(3), 53-110Pearson, P J G and Fouquet, R (2003), ‘Long Run Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Environmental
Kuznets Curves: different pathways to development?’, Ch. 10 in Hunt, L C (ed.) Energy in aCompetitive Market, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
Fouquet, R and Pearson, P J G (2003). ‘Five Centuries of Energy Prices’, World Economics, 4(3): 93-119.
Fouquet, R and Pearson, P J G (2006): ‘Seven Centuries of Energy Services: The Price and Use ofLight in the United Kingdom (1300-2000)’, The Energy Journal, 27(1)
Fouquet, R and. Pearson, P JG(2007) ‘Revolutions in Energy Services, 1300-2000’, 30th Conferenceof International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE), Wellington, New Zealand, 18-21February
Foxon, T J, Pearson, P J G(2007)‘Towards improved policy processes for promoting innovation inrenewable electricity technologies in the UK’, Energy Policy (35),1539 – 1550.