Climate Change Concerns, Research Needs and Effort in Pakistan Dr. Arshad M. Khan Technical Advisory...
-
Upload
harold-jennings -
Category
Documents
-
view
244 -
download
1
Transcript of Climate Change Concerns, Research Needs and Effort in Pakistan Dr. Arshad M. Khan Technical Advisory...
Climate Change Concerns, Research Needs and Effort in Pakistan
Dr. Arshad M. Khan
Technical Advisory Panel on Climate ChangeIslamabad, 15 February 2008
2
Rate of Change (oC per decade)
1850 – 2005 ───────────── 0.045
1905 – 2005 ───────────── 0.074
1955 – 2005 ───────────── 0.128
1980 – 2005 ───────────── 0.177
Warmest 12 years:2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 2000, 1999
Average Global Temperature OC1999 ───────────── 14.38
2000 1995
──────────────────────────
14.4014.48
. . . 1998
2007
2005
─────────────
─────────────
─────────────
14.57
14.60
14.63
3
• 0.6 0 C increase in average global temperature during the last century;
• Further increase by 1.8 – 4.0 0 C projected over the 21st Century;
• Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and decreases) of temperature and precipitation in different world regions;
• Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events (severe cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase considerably;
• Large scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps, particularly the Arctic;
• Substantial rise in sea level.
Some Major Findings of IPCC Some Major Findings of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007
4
Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan
Increased variability of Monsoon;
Increased risks of floods and droughts;
Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid region;
Food Insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity;
060212/0018
5
Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan (Contd.)
More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers;
Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline;
Upstream intrusion of saline water in the
Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral
reefs and breeding grounds of fish;
060212/0020
6
Economy largely based on agriculture, which is climate
sensitive;
Flows in IRS threatened by melting of Himalayan glaciers;
Low technological and scientific base and limited access to
knowledge;
Weak institutional mechanism and low financial resources
to undertake appropriate adaptation measures.
Vulnerability of Pakistan to Climate Change
7
Research Needs of Pakistan Proper understanding of the past trends of:
i. Region-wise Climate Change
ii. Changes in flow patterns of IRS
iii. Changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events
iv. Recession of Karakoram Glaciers
v. Degradation of the Indus delta region
Fine resolution projections of climate change in Pakistan in line with global trends
Scientific assessment of likely future impacts of climate change on country’s key sectors, in particular Water and Agriculture
Identification of appropriate adaptation measures to cope with adverse impacts
8
Climate Change Related Work in Pakistan – An Overview
1992: IUCN/Env. & Urban Aff. Div., GoP report: “The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy”,
1994: ADB report: “Climate Change in Asia – Regional Study on Global Environmental Issues;
1998: ADB report: “Asia Least Cost Abatement Strategy(ALGAS)”
1998: MoEnv., GoP and UNEP report: “Climate Change and Impact Assessment & Adaptation Strategy for
Pakistan”;
Mid-1990s onwards: Various studies coordinated by Dr. Amir Muhammed
9
Climate Change Related Work in Pakistan – An Overview (contd.)
2002: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) established;
2003: Pakistan’s First National Communication to UNFCCC by MoEnv., GoP;
2004: Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change established, with GCISC as its Secretariat;
2005: PARC/ UNEP/ ICIMOD/ APN/ START report on Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes in Pakistan Himalayas;
2007: Briefing of National Planners and Policymakers on Climate Change research results by GCISC.
10
GCISC Activities at a Glance
Agricultural Data
Identification of adaptation
measures in agriculture sector
Identification of adaptation
measures in water sector
Dissemination of Project
Outcomes
Water Simulation
Models
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources
Water Resources
Data
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on
Agriculture
Regional Climate Models
Crop Simulation
Models
Climate Change Scenario
Development
Climate Data
Capacity Building/ Research Analysis of Enhancement and Dissemination Historical Data
11
Anthropogenic Influences
Internal driving forces
External drivingforces
Global ClimateScenarios
Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
Reg
ion
al Clim
ate S
cenario
s
Effects on Crop Yields
Crop-growth Simulation ModelsMesoscale Climate
Models (MMs)Watershed Models
Effect onRiver inflows
Imp
act Stu
dies
Information at 300 km x 300 km level
Information at 30 km x 30 km
level
Information at Sub-km level
Adaptation Measures
Adaptation Measures
Health Energy Biodiversity
Area of GCISC Activities at Present
Future Activities
Agriculture
Global Circulation Models (GCMs)
Super ComputerLand use &
Topographic data etc.
GCISC Approachfor CC Research
12
Simulation Models Currently in Use at GCISC
Regional Climate Models :• RegCM3 (AS-ICTP, Italy) • PRECIS (Hadley Centre, UK)• WRF (NCAR, USA)
Watershed Models :• DHSVM (Univ. of Washington, USA)• UBC (Univ. of British Columbia, Canada)• HEC-HMS (US Army Corps of Engineers)
Crop Simulation Models :DSSAT: Decision Support System for Agro-technology
Transfer (Univ. of Georgia, Griffin, USA) comprising several families of models:
• CERES (for cereals)• CROPGRO (for grain legumes)• CROPSIM (for root crops)• Other Crops (for Tomato, Sunflower, Sugarcane, Pasture)
14
Climate Change Projections
a) Coarse resolution (~300 km x 300 km) projections using Outputs of 17 GCMs for A2 and A1B scenarios
b) Fine resolution (~50 km x 50 km) projections by dynamic downscaling of GCM outputs for A2 scenario using RCMs: RegCM3 and PRECIS
Base period: 1961 – 1990
Futures: 2020s = 2010 – 2039
2050s = 2040 – 2069
2080s = 2070 – 2099
15
Pakistan and its Northern & Southern Parts
a) Pakistanb) Northern Pakistanb) Southern Pakistan
(a) (b) (c)
16
Projected Changes in Average Temperature of Northern and Southern Pakistan
For A2 Scenario, based on Ensemble of 13 GCMs (Global ∆T = 4.0 °C in 2100)
For A1B Scenario, based on Ensemble of 17 GCMs
(Global ∆T = 2.8 °C in 2100)
17
PakistanNorthern Pakistan
Southern Pakistan
Annual 4.38 ± 0.44 4.67 ± 0.23 4.22 ± 0.18
Summer 4.13 ± 0.26 4.56 ± 0.28 3.90 ± 0.26
Winter 4.47 ± 0.20 4.72 ± 0.24 4.33 ± 0.18
Projected Temperature Changes in 2080s, ∆T (°C) by GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario
• Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan
• Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are higher in winter than in summer
18
Projected Temperature Change (°C) for 2080s by PRECIS (A2 Scenario)
Projected Precipitation Change (%) for 2080s by PRECIS (A2 Scenario)
21
Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing Season Length in Northern and Southern parts of Pakistan
Temperature˚C(increase over baseline)
Growing Season Length (Days)
Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan
MountainousRegion(Humid)
Sub-MountainousRegion
(Sub-humid)
Plains(Semi-arid)
Plains(Arid)
Baseline 246 161 146 137
1 232 155 140 132
2 221 149 135 127
3 211 144 130 123
4 202 138 125 118
5 194 133 121 113
22
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 1 2 3 4 5
Temperature Change (oC)
Whe
at Y
ield
(kg
/ha)
NorthernMountainous(Humid)
Northern Sub-Mountainous(Sub-humid)
Southern Plains(Semi arid)
Southern Plains(Arid)
Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan (other factors
remaining constant)
23
Effect of increase in CO2 concentration on wheat yield (other factors remaining
constant)
1500
2500
3500
4500
5500
6500
350 525 700 875 1050
CO2 Concentration (ppm)
Wh
ea
t Y
ield
(kg
/ha
)
Southern Semi-arid Plains
Southern AridPlains
Northern Sub-mountainousregion
NorthernMountainousRegion
24
Wheat Yield in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan under A2 Scenarios
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Base 2020 2050 2080
Wh
ea
t Yie
ld (
kg/h
a)
Northern Mountainous Region Northern Sub mountainous
Southern Semi-arid Plains Southern Arid Plains
25
Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios
Region% Share in National Production
Baseline Yield (kg ha-1)
% Change in yield in 2085
A2Scenario
B2Scenario
Northern Mountainous
2 2658 +50 +40
Northern Sub-mountainous
9 3933 -11 -11
Southern Semi arid Plains
42 4306 -8 -8
Southern Arid Plains
47 4490 -5 -6
Pakistan 100 4326 -5.7 -6.4
26
Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid Plains of Pakistan under A2 and B2 Scenarios
Yield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
1990 2025 2055 2085
Year
Ric
e y
ield
(kg
/ha)
A2 Scenarios
B2 Scenario
28
UPPER INDUS BASIN at Bisham Qila
R2 Eff. % Vol. Diff.
Calibration (1999-2004) 0.87 0.86 0.32
Validation (1995-1999) 0.87 0.87 -5.16
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
10/1
/2000
11/1
/2000
12/1
/2000
1/1
/2001
2/1
/2001
3/1
/2001
4/1
/2001
5/1
/2001
6/1
/2001
7/1
/2001
8/1
/2001
9/1
/2001
Date of run (mm/dd/yyyy)
Dis
ch
arg
e (
cu
mecs)
Observrd flow
Simulated flow
Snow melt runoff
Glacial contribution
Met Stations: ziarat (3669), yasin (3150)
29
Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dis
ch
arg
e (
Cu
me
cs
)
Base Runoff CCS Runoff
Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt
Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on UIB Flows
Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS): Temp: +3°C, Glacier Area: - 50%
Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15%2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed
Study of HKH Glaciers by GCISC GCISC has recently agreed to join hands with the
GLIMS (Global Land Ice Measurements From Space) project of Southwest Asia Regional Centre, University at Nebraska Omaha, USA to delineate the boundaries of various HKH glaciers using satellite imageries.
An MoU has been signed.
GCISC plan to use the above experience to study expansion/shrinkage behavior of major UIB glaciers, using time series satellite data.
31
Major Collaborating National Organizations
1. Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD
2. Water and Power Development Authority, WAPDA
3. Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, PARC
4. Institute of GIS, National Univ. of Sc. & Tech., IGIS/NUST
5. University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, UAF
6. University of Arid Agriculture, Rawalpindi, UAAR
32
Major Collaborating International Partners
• APN Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Japan;
• ASICTP Abdus Salam Int. Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy;
• IIASA Int. Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria;
• GLIMS Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Univ. of Nebraska, USA;
• GECAFS Global Environment Change and Food System, UK.