Climate change, climate modes, and climate impacts.
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Transcript of Climate change, climate modes, and climate impacts.
![Page 1: Climate change, climate modes, and climate impacts.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022082405/5697bfda1a28abf838cb00c2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate change, climate modes, and climate impacts
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“….large-scale seasonal indices…are remarkably good
predictiors of ecological variation…” (Hallet et al 2004)
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Modal variability
Ecological correlations with modes and IAV are known
from:
• Terrestrial
• Marine
• Physiological
• Ecosystem
• Community
• Population
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Climate and Ecosystems
The challenge facing ecologists is to identify the appropriate climatic variables to use (Hallet et al 2004)
Moist
Frozen
Dry
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Ecosystems respond to syndromes of climate: energy balance, water balance and not single
variables
Growing season lengthNote the reversed signs: warm springs mean dry summers
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Modes and IAV
1. Periodic
2. Spatially coherent
3. Correlated changes in physics
4. Climate changes may be “projected” into modal patterns and frequencies
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Modes and IAV
1. Produce spatially correlated responses
2. Modify multiple governing variables simultaneously
3. Affect populations by spatial correlation, producing long-term effects by e.g. affecting entire age cohorts
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Interannual variability carbon fluxes
Bacastow and Keeling
Whoa
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Clues to complex causation
Most of the Indonesian wildfire burned in landscapes like those to the right
Was this ENSO or land use change
Or is that the wrong question?
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Climate affects ecosystems and ecosystem services
It always has, but the nature and severity of the responses, the
vulnerability, of human-dominated systems is different from that of
more natural systems