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Climate change challenges for the mining industry Claude Villeneuve Professor Dpartement des sciences fondamentales Universit du Qubec Chicoutimi Iamgold workshop Chicoutimi Sept 17, 2012 Slide 2 Towards an uncertain future In the last forty years, science made the general deterioration of the global environment an undisputable evidence. It threatens mankinds ability to keep developing on the same path Biodiversity losses Climate change Ozone depletion Ocean acidification Nitrogen and phosphorus cycles acceleration Freshwater availability and quality Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 3 Slide 4 Economic growth and energy Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 5 World primary energy sources Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 6 Keep growing! Source http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 7 Slide 8 missions anthropiques en 2007- 29 Gt CO 2 q Sources of anthropogenic GHG (Source: GIEC, GT3, 2007) Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 9 Slide 10 Source IPCC 2007 Slide 11 Slide 12 Global mean temperature trends Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Source IPCC 2007 Slide 13 Source NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif (fvrier 2010)http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 14 Global warming 'confirmed' by independent study (20/10/11) Source:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15373071 Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 15 Uneven changes Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 16 Forecast? Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Source IPCC 2007 Slide 17 Future climate Mean temperature Canadian GCM [scnario IS92a (2xCO 2 in 2065)] ( Service mtorologique du Canada, Environnement Canada ) 2010-2030 par rapport 1975-1995 2040-2060 par rapport 1975-1995 2080-2100 par rapport 1975-19952020 2050 2090 1,5xCO 2 2xCO 2 3xCO 2 Actually it is the most probable scenario given: Fossil fuels availability International trade trends and incapacity to obtain a climate agreement Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 18 - 20 0 c 0 0 c + 30 0 c 304 000 m 3 48 000 m 3 9 000 m 3 Atmospheric water carrying capacity Low energy atmosphere High energy atmosphere Slide 19 New climate event occurrence Source IPCC 2012 Slide 20 Dry future Consecutuve dry days Soil dryness anomalies Source IPCC 2012 Slide 21 Wet future? The degree of confidence in predicting heavy rainfalls or extreme climatic events is far less than prediction of dryness. Although these events are local and statistically much harder to predict on large scale (territory, timeframe), the climate science is now able to predict an increased occurrence for both types of extreme See: IPCC 2012, Managing the risks of estreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation Slide 22 Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca A new occurrence for climate extremes Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 23 Climate change evidence Ice surface and volume Permafrost surface Ocean surface acidification Sea level rise Slide 24 Arctic sea ice Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 25 Trends August 2012 has been the smallest iArtic ice cover ever since satellital observations (NASA-GISS) Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 26 Slide 27 Slide 28 Permafrost surface Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 29 Slide 30 Slide 31 Upcoming global warming We already have in bank a 2,4C global warming in the XXIst century even with the most ambitious GHG reduction programs, it is unavoidable. . (Ramanhatan, V et Y. Feng (2008) On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenge ahead PNAS, 105:58:14245-14250 The Copenhagen accord is not going to influence significantly the GHG emission patterns towards 2020 OECD Environmental trends, 2012 Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 32 Most recent forecast Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 33 A closer look for 2030 Source: Lean, J. and Rind, D, 2009, How will surface tempretaure change in the future decades, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L15708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038932,. Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 34 Outcomes? Higher variability and weather extremes (wild weather) Higher temperature means Accelerated ice and permafrost melting Sea level rise Water cycle perturbations (flash floods, drought) Change in seasonal behavior and migration of animals and plants Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 35 Growth? We are 7 billion people since October 2011 More than half are city dwellers since 2008 and the proportion keeps growing One more billion will add towards 2025 and another before 2050 20% of the poorest share 2% of the total wealth To reach OECD level by 2050, the WDP should increase 15 fold ans 40 fold for 2100 (Jackson 2009) Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 36 Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources Energy transition? Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 37 Source: IPCC, 2011, Special report on renewable energy sources Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 38 Whats up, Doc? Global warming, sea level rise and climate extremes will impact worlds economy in an impredictable way. Agriculture Forests Transportation Real estate Tourism Energy Trade Investment Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 39 Key concepts Source: IPCC, 2012 Slide 40 Mining An energy intensive sector Lower mineral content of new mines Remote locations Global markets Mining occurs under most climate conditions all over the world and may have important environmental impacts depending on site sensitivity Life cycle of metals greatly varies in carbon intensity but generally, extraction is not the most important contributor Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 41 Gold? In gold mining, emissions varies greatly depending upon ore concentration, mine location and mining technologies Iamgold emissions raised from 170 kg/troy ounce in 2008 to 280 kg/troy ounce in 2010 and 316 kg/troy ounce in 2011 Gold is 100% recyclable. Only about 15% of world gold consumption is recycled annually thus mining and processing are the main processes contributing to global warming in the industry Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 42 Process flow for gold production Source: Rio Tinto Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 43 Breakdown of energy for a gold LCA Source: Rio Tinto These proportions varies from mine to mine and emissions will vary with carbon content of electricity grid Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 44 Global warming potential breakdown Source: Rio Tinto Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 45 Assessing vulnerability Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 46 Areas of concern Infrastructures Transportation Roads Marine Freshwater Containment (tailings) Buildings Energy Communication Mine site drainage Operations Environment Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 47 Transportation Permafrost instability Roads Airports Railroads Sea ice cover New opportunities for sea transportation in the Arctic Sea level rise Seashore installations protection Glacier melt Road security Inland waters Lakes and rivers level influenced by drought Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 48 Containment facilities Warmer average temperatures can accelerate acid mine drainage Altered freeze/thaw cycles can expose previously frozen tailings Possible overflow or ruptures of dikes following flashfloods or high intensity precipitations Wind and wave action of extreme weather events can cause resuspension of tailings and formation of ice dams Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 49 Buildings and water supply Permafrost thaw can jeopardize building structures Higher average temperature can lead to water scarcity for ore processing or covering of tailings Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 50 Can mining industry adapt to climate change? Different strokes for different folks each site has its own potential challenges Climate change concerns are relatively minor given the mining industry experience with natural conditions So why bother? Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 51 Good practices pay! Most measures to mitigate climate change are oriented on energy efficiency and better production Avoiding incidents due to unexpected weather events protects against lawsuits and fatalities RSI funds are growing in capital and they are concerned by the way mining sites perform (CDP, WDP, GRI etc.) Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 52 Tools? LCA Carbon footprint Carbon offsets R&D Education and training Renewable energy for electricity and fuels Better building requirements Flood management design Increased surveillance Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 53 Conclusion Climate change is real and it will increase in the 21st century Mankind action is the most important driver of climate change The mining industry is one of the important contributors through GHG emissions Changing weather and extremes may cause adaptation challenges to the industry There are tools to alleviate risks and improve performance Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 54 Questions? Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 55 Workshop Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca Slide 56 Timeframe 45 minutes for discussion (5 or 6) Please mix provenances Coffee break (30 minutes) and discussion with UQAC research team 3 minutes per group for reporting Synthesis and concluding remarks Claude_Villeneuve@uqac.ca