Climate Change and Water Resourcesin Southern Africa: A Resilience Perspective

Bimo Nkhata

Contents1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Key Concepts and Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

2.1 Weather Versus Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32.2 Climate Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.3 Global Warming and the Greenhouse Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.4 Mitigation and Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.5 Resilience and Transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

3 The Climate Future of Africa: Setting the Scene on Resilience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Water Governance in Southern Africa: Contextual Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

4.1 Brief History of Water Governance in Southern Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84.2 Regional Water Governance Reforms in Southern Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

5 SADC’s Responses to Climate Change Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125.1 South Africa’s Transition to a Climate Resilient Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135.2 Zambia’s Transition to a Climate Resilient Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

6 Implications of Effective Water Management for Climate Resilience Societies . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198 Cross-References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Abstract

This chapter offers readers contemporary knowledge on how water professionalsand various levels of government have attempted to deal with the impacts ofclimate change on water resources in Southern Africa. It discusses how waterprofessionals and governments have implemented innovative climate resilientpolicies and actions in an attempt to build climate resilient water management.The chapter addresses the socio-technical and governance aspects of climateresilient water management that raise fundamental questions about human behav-ior and the roles of government. It is argued that climate resilient water

B. Nkhata (*)Water Research Centre, The Independent Institute of Education, Johannesburg, South Africae-mail: bnkhata@iiemsa.co.za

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020R. Brears (ed.), The Palgrave Handbook of Climate Resilient Societies,https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32811-5_98-1

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management is primarily concerned with the management of societal risks asso-ciated with water resources. The chapter describes how these efforts of trying tobuild climate resilience have been implemented through a regional economiccommunity known as the Southern African Development Community (SADC).In so doing, the chapter provides an account of how the SADC has beenimplementing programs to strengthen the capacity of regional countries to under-take climate change adaptation and mitigation interventions. To explore how theSADC member states are planning for and implementing this program and otherrelated climate change related activities in the water sector, the chapter focuses ontwo case study countries: South Africa and Zambia. From the two case studies, itis clear that the building of climate resilient societies through effective watermanagement requires timely responses to demands placed on scarce waterresources. Successful climate change mitigation and adaptation depend on thecapacity of water management agencies to process information on a time scaleappropriate to issues at hand. In the context of Southern Africa, issues oforganizational preparedness and response time will be central.

Keywords

Climate change · Water resources · Resilience · Mitigation · Adaptation ·Effective management · Southern Africa

1 Introduction

Maybe you work for a government agency responsible for managing water in amunicipality, province, or at national level. Perhaps you work for a private firminvolved in the development of improved technologies to increase the productivityof water. Maybe you work for a nongovernmental organization that is doing com-munity work to expand access to clean water and improved sanitation. Or perhapsyou are a researcher trying to figure out the best way to maximize the effectiveness ofwater management. These roles are typical of working professionals who work inorganizations, programs, or projects that are designed to achieve goals related to thedevelopment, management, and supply of water services. If you are one of theseworking professionals, you probably would at some point have realized that achiev-ing these water-related goals is difficult. Perhaps most notable is the realization thatin spite of the large financial investments, years of hard work, hundreds of projects,and hundreds of trained water professionals, the sector continues to face new andmore difficult water challenges, which are now compounded by climate change.

Water is undeniably the first sector to be affected by changes in climate (Cap-Net2008). Primarily, this is because it serves as the fundamental link between theclimate system, human society, and the environment (CTCN 2017). Climate changeis severely affecting the hydrological cycle and as a consequence impacting on waterresources (Mata and Budhooram 2007). Climate change not only leads to intensifi-cation of the hydrological cycle (Cap-Net 2008) but also influences the frequency

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and intensity of extreme events. Droughts and floods in particular have becomemajor features of the climate. Climate change has made weather patterns morevariable, extreme, and unpredictable (CTCN 2017). Weather patterns have shiftedto more intense and frequent events with dire consequences for water resources. As aresult, water professionals are facing increasing pressure from society, stakeholders,and funders to demonstrate clear and tangible results in dealing with the impacts ofclimate change (Cap-Net 2008). Worse still, they are challenged by increasinglyscarce financial and human resources to become more effective in achieving goalsrelated to climate adaptation. Clearly, there is need for newer, more powerfulapproaches to build climate resilient water management – business as usual cannotbe a viable option.

This chapter provides readers with knowledge on how water professionals andvarious levels of government have attempted to deal with the impacts of climatechange on water resources in Southern Africa. In particular, the chapter addresseshow water professionals and governments have implemented innovative climateresilient policies and actions in an attempt to build climate resilient water manage-ment. It advances an alternative paradigm for improving climate resilience thatunderscores the basic ingredients for pursuing responsive water governance directedat securing scarce water resources. The chapter is designed to address the socio-technical and governance aspects of climate resilient water management that raisefundamental questions about human behavior and the roles of government. It is in noway designed to provide an exposé on the pure physical, chemical, and biologicalsciences of climate change or water resources. This objective is premised on theunderstanding that climate resilient water management is primarily concerned withthe management of societal risks associated with water resources.

2 Key Concepts and Definitions

2.1 Weather Versus Climate

This section presents the main concepts and definitions that are central to thischapter. The lexicon presented here is neither meant to be exhaustive nor compre-hensive, but rather it is designed to be basic and illustrative. First of all, it isimportant to make clear the distinction between weather and climate. Whereas asweather is the state of the atmosphere at a specified time and particular place, climateis a combination of the daily weather conditions and the atmospheric components ata given place and particular place over a long period of time (Schulze 2011).Although the weather can change in minutes or hours, a change in climate issomething that develops over longer periods such as decades and centuries (Schulze2011).

Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: A Resilience. . . 3

2.2 Climate Variability

Climate variability denotes deviations from the long-term expected value rangingfrom months to as many as 30 years (Shaw 1999). It is usually regarded as reversibleand nonpermanent. For instance, the droughts in Southern Africa that are related tothe El Niño – Southern Ocean phenomenon – could be considered as a form ofclimate variability (Schulze 2011). In contrast, climate change is typically consid-ered irreversible and permanent. It involves alterations to the earth’s atmosphere thatoccur over longer periods such as decades and millennia. Over time, these alterationsare superimposed over naturally occurring variability. Anthropogenically inducedglobal warming is a typical manifestation of climate change. However, according toIPCC (2007), while the warming of the climate system is now better understood andcan be attributed resolutely to human activity, any change in climate over time,whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity, signifies climatechange (Hansen and Stone 2016).

2.3 Global Warming and the Greenhouse Effect

The unrelenting emitting of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is leading to further globalwarming and inducing many changes in the global climate system (IPCC 2007).GHGs in the atmosphere absorb heat and further warm the surface of the earth. Thetrapping and buildup of heat in the atmosphere near the earth’s surface, commonlyknown as the greenhouse effect, are in large part caused by increased levels of GHGs(Hansen and Stone 2016). Since the preindustrial era, the anthropogenic GHGemissions have increased as a result of economic and population growth (IPCC2014). The levels of GHG emissions are higher than ever leading to unprecedentedatmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide (IPCC2014). While the other gases have the same heat-trapping effect, carbon dioxide isconsidered the principal GHG. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmo-sphere increased from a preindustrial value of about 280 parts per million (ppm) to379 ppm in 2005. In 2018, the concentration reached 408 ppm, up from 405 ppm in2017. The effects of carbon dioxide and other GHGs have been detected in theclimate system and are generally considered to be the dominant cause of theobserved warming since the mid-twentieth century (IPCC 2014).

2.4 Mitigation and Adaptation

Societies respond to climate change primarily through two management options:mitigation and adaptation. The two are considered complementary strategies forreducing and managing the risks of climate change. In simple terms, mitigation is astrategy to reduce emission sources or to enhance the sinks of GHGs, whileadaptation is an “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual orexpected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits

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beneficial opportunities” (IPCC 2007). While mitigation has been recognized as animportant strategy to reduce emissions, it is also undeniable that the atmosphericconcentration of GHGs is projected to continue, increasing even in scenarios thatinclude strong mitigation options (Mata and Budhooram 2007). In other words,mitigation alone may not be the ultimate strategy. The two strategies –mitigation andadaptation – should thus be considered as complementary strategies to climatechange challenges (Mata and Budhooram 2007).

2.5 Resilience and Transformation

While many analyses of climate change strategies tend to focus predominately onmitigation and adaptation, it is worth mentioning that the two are not the onlypanaceas. The concepts of resilience and transformation have also evolved consid-erably in relation to discussions around climate change strategies. Whereas resilienceis defined as the capacity of a “social-ecological system to absorb disturbance andreorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same func-tion, structure, identity, and feedbacks” (Olsson et al. 2004), transformation denotessignificant reordering to generate something fundamentally novel while challengingexisting structures (Blythe et al. 2018). Resilience and transformation, that is thecapacity to anticipate, cope with, and adapt to extremes and change, while reorderingstructures, are important causal factors of vulnerability (Moore et al. 2014). Theseverity of the impacts of extreme and nonextreme weather and climate eventsdepends strongly on the level of vulnerability and exposure to these events (Cardonaet al. 2012). As such, building resilience and transformative capacity should beessential components of the broader suite of climate change strategies.

Water is probably the most important natural resource on earth. It is essential tolife and is the major constituent of almost all life forms. It is vital to humans forreasons of health, wealth, and even political power. The continuous circulation offreshwater between the earth and the atmosphere is referred to as the “hydrologicalcycle” (Shaw 1999). The cycle is driven by solar energy whereby water is movedfrom the soil and open water bodies into the atmosphere by means of evaporation.Solar energy also provides the energy for plants to suck up and release water into theatmosphere through transpiration. Water returns to earth as precipitation where itflows overland to be stored in larger water bodies. It can also infiltrate the substrate tobecome part of a glacier or directly reenter the atmosphere. Inland waters can becategorized as lentic (standing or still water), lotic (flowing water, saline (containingsalt), and fresh (not saline) (Shaw 1999).

It is expected that climate change will have dramatic effects on water resourcesand on the work of water professionals (CTCN 2017). One of climate change’s mainimpacts will be on the hydrological cycle. Wet areas of the world will get wetter,while dry areas will get drier. The earth will continue to experience more severeweather and climate change effects such as floods, sea level rise, and storm surges.Temperature changes will affect the quality and quantity of water resources. Warmerair temperature will increase water temperature and enhance the intensity of tropical

Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: A Resilience. . . 5

storms. The poorer and more vulnerable groups in Africa will particularly feel theimpacts of climate change on water resources (CTCN 2017). In part, this under-standing necessitates the urgent need to build climate resilience societies vis-à-viswater resources in Southern Africa.

Although simplified, the above concepts and definitions represent a set of termsthat are critical in understanding the links between climate change and waterresources. While the inclusion of a detailed account of the physical, chemical, andbiological properties of water could perhaps have provided valuable insights, forpurposes of this chapter such an account would probably not be helpful in under-standing how water professionals and various levels of government can deal with theimpacts of climate change on water resources in Southern Africa.

3 The Climate Future of Africa: Setting the Sceneon Resilience

The future of climate change, extreme weather events, and water resources in Africacan be better understood by looking at the continent’s history as well as the presentcomplex social-hydrological context. About 60 years ago, many African countriesgained independence from the colonial powers (Taoua 2018). A great legacy fromthe colonial era was that rivers played a major role in the mapping and border makingof countries to the extent that the Southern African region has as many trans-boundary watercourses as there are countries (Phillips et al. 2006; Swatuk 2008).It is usually argued that a common feature of most Southern African countries is thatalmost all their water resources are shared (Granit 2000). At another level, theemancipation of African countries gave rise to great hopes for the political, eco-nomic, social, and cultural development of the African people (Taoua 2018). Unfor-tunately, the situation in some African countries is currently not stable and violenceis widespread, with the poor bearing most of the brunt (Houser 1989). Climatemigration has in the recent past added to the woes of Africa (Werz and Conley 2012).In 1994, two very important events happened in Africa: the genocide in Rwanda andthe defeat of apartheid in South Africa. The senseless killing of countless people andthe misery of refugees reminded us of the huge problems Africa faces today. But thedefeat of apartheid proved that no problem is so great and no situation is so hopelessthat it cannot be overcome (Lodge 2011).

For a long time, life has been very hard for most people in Africa. More and morepeople have been unemployed, and they have become poorer, living in greatinsecurity and struggling for daily survival. The results are only too obvious: misery,despair, and violence. In a world controlled by rich and powerful countries andpeople, Africa tends to be forgotten and neglected, almost becoming irrelevant.Africa remains the world’s poorest inhabited continent with a combined grossdomestic product (GDP) that is less than a third of the USA‘s GDP. Systemicchanges are required to address extreme poverty and inequality. In a continent fullof bad news, how is the message about the future of climate change, extreme weather

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events, and water resources to be communicated? In the midst of despair on all sides,where do the hope and optimism lie?

On the economic front, the good news is that Africa is currently home to some ofthe world’s fastest-growing economies. In 2019, sub-Saharan Africa was home toseveral of the world’s fastest-growing economies (IMF 2019). According to the IMF,with an expected growth rate of 3.8%, the subregion was predictable to have aneconomic growth rate almost at par with the global forecast of 3.7%. This economicboom has been in place since the 2000s. The African economic boom is usuallycompared to the Chinese economic boom that begun in the 1970s. It is expected thatthe continent’s ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change will increasinglyplay an important role in Africa’s economic boom going into the future (InternationalRivers 2012).

It is important to understand that Africa’s economic development will hugely beinfluenced by climate change, besides the challenges posed by its vulnerability andpopulation growth. The continent’s low adaptive capacity, widespread poverty, andlow technology uptake will exacerbate its vulnerability (Kusangaya et al. 2014).Currently the continent is home to about 1.3 billion people. According to the UnitedNations, the total population will double to 2.4 billion by the year 2050 (UNECA2016). There is also a need to realize that Africa’s population is very young. It is theyoungest continent in the world. About 60% of the continent is aged below 25. In2015, young people constituted 19% of the global youth population. It is expectedthat the number of young people in Africa will increase by 42% by the year 2030(UNECA 2016). These statistics beg the question, “What role will young peopleplay in the future of climate change, extreme weather events, and water resources inAfrica?”

Many studies have shown that climate change in Southern Africa has madeweather patterns more variable, extreme, and unpredictable (International Rivers2012; Turton 2016). Weather patterns have shifted to more intense and frequentevents with dire consequences for water security. Droughts in particular havebecome a major feature of the climate and socioeconomics. As Kusangaya et al.(2014) contend, climate change is likely to affect nearly every aspect of human well-being such as agricultural productivity, energy use, flood control, and municipal andindustrial water supply. This prediction is primarily premised on the understandingthat the region is characterized by scarce water resources coupled with highly spatialand temporally variable rainfall. According to IPCC (2007), because of low adaptivecapacity and projected climate change impacts, Africa will be especially affected byclimate change. As such, it is argued that climate change will heavily and directlyimpact on the availability and demand for water resources in Southern Africa goinginto the future.

Evidence suggests that climate change has already generated substantial changesin water demand and availability patterns (International Rivers 2012). It is critical tounderstand the processes driving these changes, the sequences of the changes, andtheir manifestation at different spatial and temporal levels. Increased water-relatedrisks associated with extreme events will put additional strain on water managementand increase uncertainty (International Rivers 2012). These risks will continue

Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: A Resilience. . . 7

regardless of the mitigation measures applied over the years. Society needs to findways to adapt to the changes to render water management more resilient in copingwith new conditions and extreme weather patterns. Ultimately, climate change is acomplex problem that has increased the need for building climate resilient watermanagement.

From the foregoing, the notion of “climate resilient societies” stands for many ofthe essential values which the continent needs so desperately: hope, peace, justice,and development (Phillips et al. 2006). The notion invites African people to take ahard and honest look at the situation on the continent and face the real problemsposed by climate change. At the same time, the notion gives the people a powerfulmessage of great hope with the conviction that climate challenges can be overcome ifthey understand the root causes and adapt to the impacts in solidarity. The notiongives a message of hope and encouragement to Africa. The future of Africa isflourishing. African people shall thrive and prosper. Africa hinged on climateresilience is destined not for failure, but for success.

4 Water Governance in Southern Africa: ContextualBackground

Water resources are highly varied in Southern Africa. While the northern and easternparts of the region are relatively better watered, the southern and western areas aremuch drier, with the exception of the southern coasts of South Africa. This sectionserves as a contextual background by providing a brief history of water governanceand an account of regional water governance reform in Southern Africa. Thecontextual background is particularly necessary in order to appreciate where thesector is currently in terms of the policies and practice related to climate change andwater resources in Southern Africa. It is also essential to appropriately bind theissues and concerns surrounding resilience in the content of Southern Africa.

4.1 Brief History of Water Governance in Southern Africa

Changing patterns and forms of human settlement have largely shaped the history ofwater governance in Southern Africa (Swatuk 2008). Precolonial societies weretypified by fluid borders, which enabled indigenous people to freely settle androam the vast region (Swatuk 2008). Such movements were facilitated by firmcustomary agreements among different social groupings. This made it easier forpopulations to settle along banks of perennial and ephemeral rivers (Haller andChabwela 2009). This however changed with the coming in of European settlementsin the colonial period. During the colonial period, there was a general neglect of theneeds and concerns of indigenous people (Haller and Chabwela 2009). The colonialera significantly changed patterns of human settlements. The majority of the indig-enous people were divested of their lands and relocated to areas that were known ashomelands. As previously mentioned, rivers played a major role in the mapping and

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border making of countries in Southern Africa, to that extent that the region has themost number of transboundary watercourses. A common feature of most SouthernAfrican countries is that their water resources are shared.

It is usually argued that throughout the history of Africa water resources havebeen both unevenly distributed by nature and unevenly allocated by humans (WorldBank 1996). Some writers claim that water availability in Southern Africa isinversely proportional to relative prosperity. In large part, this scenario is attributedto the localization of mineral exploitation and agriculture that led to the concentra-tion of large settlements around mines and farms in most of the countries (Swatuk2008). These mines and farms were in most cases located far from available waterresources. The connection between water availability and prosperity has resulted in acombination of complex long-term water problems in the region including extensivepoint source and downstream pollution from mining and agriculture. These complexproblems changed the patterns of societal exposure to risks associated with climatechange and water security. Such problems are compounded by the fact that thepostcolonial period of water governance has been characterized by generallyfragmented and weak policy, legal and administrative frameworks, and a generallack of capacity to manage these problems (Haller and Chabwela 2009).

For a long time, few postcolonial governments in the region had adequatenational water policy and institutional frameworks, or mechanisms for intersectoralcoordination and conflict resolution (Phillips et al. 2006; Funder et al. 2010). Even insituations where governments were involved in water policy reforms, the long-termsustainability of these reforms was often undermined by lack of public servicecapacity and political instabilities (Haller and Chabwela 2009). The regulatoryframeworks in many of the region’s countries were inadequate and often weaklyenforced due to governance-related problems such as overlapping institutionalresponsibilities, insufficient management authority, and political interference. Thisled to poor planning and utilization of available water resources, often favoringsupply management over demand management. The uncertainty of property rights towater in most of the countries led to mistrust between water users and managers aswell as low levels of investments in water demand management ventures. In manyinstances, water rights tended to reflect the colonial heritage that favored minoritymining and farming societies (Haller and Chabwela 2009; Nkhata et al. 2017). Inaddition, both ground and surface water resources were generally viewed as pri-vately owned, which made allocations to priority sectors difficult.

The governance of water resources in the postcolonial era was also complicatedby the fact that most of the water resources of Southern Africa are shared (Swatuk2008). The drainage areas of the 15 major river basins cover as much as 70% of theregion’s land surface (Granit 2000). For example, the Zambezi River, which is themajor river in the region, is shared by eight riparian countries. This shared river basinplayed a significant role in the development of the region in the postcolonial era,particularly in terms of hydropower, irrigation, fishery, tourism, and other productiveuses. With increased population growth and development the riparian countriessought to utilize what they regarded as their rightful claims. Looking at themedium-term development plans of most countries during the postcolonial era, it

Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: A Resilience. . . 9

is clear that the water resources of the international watercourses were unlikely to beable to fulfill most of the water demands claimed by the states (Granit 2000). Assuch, joint management of these basins became a prerequisite for achieving sustain-able development.

The need for joint management ignited the pressures for water reform in theregion to address multiple challenges, which can be summarized as followed(Swatuk 2008):

• Continuing inequities of use and access• Too many actors/institutions and too little coordination• Increasing competition for a scarce and finite resource• Generally poor water resources• Declining quality of that limited resource• Lack of state-generated finance to adequately run the sector• Lack of a common policy/benchmark by which to assess the effectiveness of

management actions in the sector• A narrow band of stakeholder involvement in the sector; and recurrent droughts

on a large scale

4.2 Regional Water Governance Reforms in Southern Africa

The reasons usually advanced for water governance reforms in Southern Africa havegenerally tended to be mixed (Swatuk 2005). It is, however, generally agreed that themismatch between demand and supply has been the major driving force of thereforms (Granit 2000). On the one hand, in many cases, the majority of the region’speople reside in areas of relative water scarcity. On the other hand, industrialization,urbanization, and population growth rates have been putting pressure on existingresources (Swatuk 2008). This is despite the fact that access to available waterresources mirrors historical inequalities. Over time, the water resources of the regionhave deteriorated, a situation that is creating competition and tension among usergroups and sectors. The great variability of rainfall as well as the growing anddiversifying demands on water resources presents a significant problem for theeffective governance of water resources (Swatuk 2005). Water resources are mostlygoverned in response to changing hydrological conditions and perceptions of chang-ing exposure to risk that are expressed as demands for water (Turton 2015). Thesedemands are varied, in a continuous state of evolution, but based generally on claimsfor water resources to be cornerstones of ecosystem management (securing ecosys-tem services), poverty alleviation, and economic development (Swatuk 2008).

Given this scenario, conflicts over the benefits from water resources have beenincreasing at the same time that associated water stocks have been depleted andflows have been reduced as a result of climate change, thereby altering exposure torisks (Phillips et al. 2006). In the recent past, water has been recognized as a keydriver for socioeconomic development and poverty alleviation in the region. TheSouthern Africa Water Vision of “Equitable and sustainable utilization of water for

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social, environmental justice, and economic benefits for present and future genera-tions” is elaborated into several regional policies that explicitly address the devel-opment goals that constitute the Sustainable Development Goals (Swatuk 2005).Since most of the river Basins in the region are shared by more than two countries(Granit 2000), water is a shared resource that is also a factor for peace andcooperation in the region. Equally, it is considered as a factor for potential tensionand conflict because of how apportionment of water shapes exposure to and severityof risk (Funder et al. 2010).

Water reforms in Southern Africa are being carried out under the rubric ofintegrated water resources management (IWRM) (Swatuk 2008). As defined bythe Global Water Partnership, this approach “aims to ensure the coordinated devel-opment and management of water, land and related resources by maximizingeconomic and social welfare without compromising the sustainability of vital envi-ronmental ecosystems.” The fact that water in Southern Africa is increasinglybecoming a limiting factor for economic and social development has been recog-nized at several international and regional events. These events include the SecondWorld Water Forum where the Southern Africa Vision for Water Life and theEnvironment in the twenty-first century was presented (March 2000), the SADC/UNDP Water Sector Round Table Conference (December 1998), and the SADC/EUConference on the Management of Shared River Basins (May 1997) (Swatuk 2005).

The regional input to these international events has been prepared in a consulta-tive manner using the framework of a regional economic community known as theSouthern African Development Community (SADC). The consultative processeshave involved representatives from governments and, to a more limited extent, civilsociety and the private sector. Generally, recommendations emerging on best prac-tices for IWRM from these and other events have emphasized that river basinsshould be regarded as management units (in a local, national, and regional perspec-tive); land use management should be linked to water resources management usingan ecosystem approach; demand management practices should be promoted includ-ing recognizing water as an economic good; and, management should be at thelowest appropriate level using participatory approaches taking into account genderaspects (Swatuk 2005).

The SADC framework has provided a good vehicle for engaging governmentrepresentatives throughout the region (Swatuk 2008). Particularly, SADC has beenactive in promoting regional cooperation on shared watercourses (Phillips et al.2006). In 1995, SADC established a separate water sector and sector coordinationunit (SADC-WSCU), based in Lesotho, to work toward the goal of sustainabledevelopment, equitable sharing, and conservation of water resources. The SADCProtocol on Shared Water Course Systems has been a key legal instrument forachieving the development goal of the sector. The objective of the protocol is tofoster closer cooperation for sustainable management, protection, and utilization ofthe water resources of shared water courses and to advance the SADC agenda ofregional integration and poverty alleviation. The protocol, which was signed in1995, has to date been ratified by nine out of twelve countries. The DemocraticRepublic of Congo and the Seychelles, being new members of SADC, have not yet

Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: A Resilience. . . 11

signed the protocol. The protocol was recently amended to incorporate some of thekey issues in the 1997 “UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses ofInternational Water Courses.”

Some important general principles in the protocol state that (Granit 2000):

• Watercourse states shall utilize a shared water course in an equitable and reason-able manner.

• State parties shall harmonize their water uses.• The utilization of shared water courses shall be open to each watercourse state;

member states shall maintain a proper balance between resource development andconservation of the environment.

• State parties shall exchange available hydrometeorological information and data.• State parties shall exchange information and consult each other of planned

measures on the condition of a shared watercourse.• State parties shall take appropriate measures to prevent or mitigate conditions that

may be harmful to other watercourse states.• State parties shall establish joint management mechanisms.

5 SADC’s Responses to Climate Change Challenges

In 2019, the SADC Secretariat and the European Union (EU) launched an IntraAfrican, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) Global Climate Change Alliance Plus(GCCA+) program to strengthen the capacity of regional countries to undertakeclimate change adaptation and mitigation interventions (SADC 2019). The programaims to support SADC governments, regional organizations, and private and publicsectors, to deliver on the following areas:

• Strengthen the capacity of SADC Member States to undertake regional andnational adaptation and mitigation actions in response to the challenges causedby the effects of global climate change and climate variability

• Facilitate implementation of the provisions of the Paris Agreement on ClimateChange in SADC

• Facilitate sharing of knowledge and experience with other ACP regional organi-zations, including South-South Cooperation

• Assist to design pilot projects on adaptation in several MS• Support universities and research centers from the SADC region in the develop-

ment of innovative solutions to climate change challenges

The program is an integral part of the implementation of the SADC RegionalIntegration Agenda (SADC 2019). Its overall objective is to increase the capabilitiesof SADC Member States to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change, insupport of the Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP), AfricaUnion Agenda 2063, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). From the EU’sperspective, the program is a flagship initiative designed to assist the world’s most

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vulnerable countries to address climate change. The EU has underscored its com-mitment to raise global ambitions, to devote to climate-related activities, and todeliver a European Green Deal to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by2050. In the same view, the EU intends to support the rest of the world through theParis Agreement to deal with climate change. The GCCA+ is a EU flagship initiativethat provides a platform for dialogue and cooperation and has funded more than70 projects of national, regional, and worldwide scope in Africa, Asia, the Carib-bean, and the Pacific for the period 2007–2020.

From the perspective of the SADC, the program is necessary for the region, whichis highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and known to experience anincreased intensity in hydrometeorological hazards such as droughts, tropicalcyclones, and floods (SADC 2019). The SADC has designed the program in sucha way that it is aligned to its other framework policies such as the RegionalAgricultural Policy of 2014; the SADC Climate Change Strategy and Action Planof 2015, and the SADC Regional Green Growth Strategy and Action Plan of 2015.These frameworks are all integral to contributing to the region’s efforts to improveclimate change adaptation and resilience so as to ensure sustainable economicgrowth.

To explore how the SADC member states are planning for and implementing thisprogram and other related climate change related activities in the water sector, thechapter focuses on two case study countries: South Africa and Zambia. South Africais located in the southern part of the region, while Zambia in the northern part. Thetwo countries somewhat represent the two ends of the region’s water availabilityspectrum. On the one end, South Africa is regarded as a water-stressed, semi-aridcountry that experiences cyclical droughts and is subject to highly variable runoff.About 65% of the country does not receive enough rainfall, and only 35% hasprecipitation of 500 mm or more. On the other end, Zambia is endowed withrelatively abundant water resources (MTENR 2011). The annual rainfall of thecountry averages between 700 mm and 1,400 mm. The country has an extensiveriver network as well as several large lakes and a number of relatively productiveaquifers in various parts of the country (MTENR 2011). The water resource endow-ment discrepancies between the two countries provide a useful context for studyingwater governance in Southern Africa.

5.1 South Africa’s Transition to a Climate Resilient Society

Increasingly, climate change has been adversely affecting South African cities andthe water services they depend on for socioeconomic development (Turton 2016).Climate change has made weather patterns more variable, extreme, andunpredictable. Weather patterns have shifted to more intense and frequent eventswith dire consequences for urban water security. Droughts in particular have becomea major feature of the environment and socioeconomics of most cities (Turton 2016).The environmental impacts have included frequent river flow stoppages anddecreased water levels in dams, reservoirs, and canals. These impacts have led to

Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: A Resilience. . . 13

decreased availability of drinking water and water for other needs (Schulze 2011).The economic impacts have included reductions in agricultural productivity leadingto significant losses of income and decreased purchasing power especially amongthe most vulnerable communities (Turton 2015). In 2018, it was reported thatagriculture in the Western Cape Province had suffered losses estimated at R14billion, and that the hardest hit enterprises were gardening services, hotels, andguesthouses (Brown 2018).

Clearly, droughts are now a major feature of the climate of South Africa (DEA2017). The country is currently facing one of the worst droughts in 30 years that hasnegatively affected many sectors including water. While the overall actual impacts ofthe 2018/2019 are yet to be ascertained, previous similar droughts have resulted insignificant reductions in water availability. The declaration of a national disasterexpanded responsibilities and accountability beyond the local government sphere toinclude the national government that was expected to tackle the crisis head-on and toensure immediate relief efforts. Cape Town, in particular, experienced a grip of acalamitous drought that saw South Africa’s second-most populous city facing theprospect of having its taps running dry on “Day Zero” (Brown 2018). However, withthe declaration of the drought as a national disaster and the pushing back of DayZero, Cape Town had to look beyond adaptive strategies to develop transformativesolutions to the water crisis. These developments allowed the city managers in CapeTown to refocus their attention and capacities to the long-term climate changechallenges affecting most South African cities. More importantly, the developmentsenabled the city authorities to design long-term transformative water strategies thatare generative of change as opposed to adaptive water strategies which are oftenresponsive to change, particularly under conditions of severe water scarcity.

South Africa’s recent plans during these repeated episodes of droughts have beenlaudable particularly as they reflect significant progress relative to the reactionarymeasures in previous drought seasons. However, the country is fully mindful theseefforts may not be sustainable or sufficient to tackle the complex challenges ofpersistent droughts in the future. It is for this reason that South Africa developedDesired Adaptation Outcomes (DAOs) which were presented in its 2nd AnnualClimate Change Report (DEA 2017). The DAOs are premised on a set of desiredactions and prerequisites to achieve a climate resilient South Africa over the next 5–20 years. They engender structure and focus in the monitoring and evaluation of thecountry’s progress toward climate resilience. They also provide a framework for thearticulation of sectoral adaptation goals in plans, policies, and actions for all spheresof government. The monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions in the over-arching DAOs relation to the water sector include the following outcomes:

• Climate change adaptation fully integrated into planning processes in water-dependent sectors.

• Capacity development programs in water-dependent sectors informed by water-related adaptation research (e.g., high quality data and tools to analyze data).

• Regional (international) adaptation policies and programs established forSouth Africa’s transboundary river systems.

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• Water security and resource protection enhanced by adaptation of catchment andwater management practices (e.g., investment in water conservation and waterdemand management).

• New and unused water resources utilized sustainably in areas of water stress (e.g.,groundwater, effluent reuse, and desalination – with cost-benefit and maladapta-tion risk assessments undertaken).

• Vulnerable communities, sectors, and infrastructure more resilient to water-related climate change impacts.

• Water sector has resources (i.e., human, legal, regulatory, institutional, gover-nance, and financial) and capacity to properly address climate change challenges.

• Efficiency and effectiveness of water-related climate change adaptation policiesand programs monitored and evaluated over short, medium, and longer-term timescales.

• Nonclimate pressures and threats to water quality and availability reduced (par-ticularly where these compound climate change impacts).

According to the South African government, these DAOs are multidimensionaland provide an approach to monitoring and evaluating progress toward climateresilience (DEA 2017). They can be applied to climate action at varying scales –encompassing national provincial and local scale climate change response measures.While theoretically sound, their effective implementation is yet to be fully attained.

5.2 Zambia’s Transition to a Climate Resilient Society

The critical energy infrastructure of many African countries is coming underimmense stress as recent droughts caused through climate change continue to poseserious threats to energy security. As with South Africa, droughts have become amajor feature of the climate in Zambia with dire consequences for the energy sector.In 2018/2019, the country faced one of the worst droughts in 30 years that negativelyaffected the energy sector. Similarly, while the overall actual impacts of this droughtperiod are yet to be ascertained, previous similar droughts have resulted in signifi-cant reductions in low energy productivity. Worse still, climate change is expected tomake weather patterns more variable, extreme in both directions, and unpredictable(MTENR 2011). Weather patterns are likely to shift to more intense and frequentdrought periods. Evidence shows that technology diversification as a major compo-nent of energy resilience is proving limited in its response to recurrent droughts,thereby contributing to severe energy insecurity in Zambia.

The country is faced with limited technology in terms of diversity that iscontributing to reduced resilience in the form of lower power generation capacityand continuous power shortages (load shedding). In the past few decades, thehydropower infrastructure of Zambia has remained stagnant with regard to technol-ogy diversification. Zambia’s critical energy infrastructure is entirely hydro-basedthereby making it more sensitive and vulnerable to climate change events such asrainfall variability. Technology diversification can thus be a key determinant in

Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: A Resilience. . . 15

creating prerequisites for enhancing the resilience of critical energy infrastructure tocope with droughts and to mitigate against energy crises.

The largest source of energy in Zambia is biomass, with 75% of the country’senergy supply being from charcoal and firewood. The country also has abundanthydroelectric generation potential with 99.9% of electricity produced from hydro-logical sources. Excluding wood fuel, hydropower is the most important energysource in the country. It contributes about 10% to the national energy supply. Thecountry’s installed hydropower generation capacity is about 95% hydro technologybased, with the remaining generation mix at 5% comprising diesel, thermal, solar,and heavy fuel oil. Currently, 25% of the national population has access to electric-ity. From this number, 49.3% are found in urban areas and 3.2% in the rural areas.Climate change has made significant impacts as droughts and rising temperatureshave led to gradual drying up of biomass, thereby resulting in a reduction in theavailability of fuel wood. Changes in the hydrology of the country have resulted inworsened droughts and more dangerous flooding that have raised safety concerns forhydropower generating dams.

During the 2015/2016 drought season, this limit in diversity impaired the capacityof the country to generate normal energy power levels. There was an energy powerdeficit of about 1000 MW between 2015 and 2016 largely due to the drought andassociated limited technology. While Zambia as a country has a potential hydro-power capacity of about 6000 MW, its installed generation capacity is about2300 MW, leaving the balance largely unexploited. This gap can be attributed tothe fact that the country’s critical hydropower infrastructure typically operates belownormal capacity and is essentially not designed to ensure functionality in diverseconditions. As such, the country has been particularly prioritizing technology diver-sification in order to enhance energy resilience. Power utility companies have beenresorting to non-hydro technologies such as solar aimed at increasing access to adiverse range (mix) of technologies which are intended to reduce the country’soverdependence on hydropower.

In 2017, as part of the response to the energy crisis, Zambia launched its NationalClimate Change Policy (NCCP) aimed at stemming the impact of climate changeand subsequent reduction of the country’s annual economic growth due to cropfailure and the impact of climate change on energy production (hydropower)(MNDP 2016). The premise for formulating the NPCC was to establish a coordi-nated national response to climate change. It has been observed that for a long timeclimate change issues in the country were being addressed in a fragmented mannerusing various sectoral policies, strategies, and plans, which have had limited overalleffect. The NPCC is therefore seen as an important framework that allows for theimplementation of existing and future initiatives and harnessing of opportunities in amore coordinated manner, while providing a long-term vision to achieve sustainabledevelopment (MNDP 2016). It was envisaged that the country would fully integrateclimate change into its development plans through the NPCC as the overall frame-work. This framework also acts as a platform for attracting finance and investmentsto achieve sustainable development goals. As such, the overall objective is toprovide a framework for coordinating climate change programs in order to ensure

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climate resilient and low carbon development pathways for sustainabledevelopment.

To promote investments in climate resilient, the NCCP contains explicit measuresaimed at promoting the scaling up of alternative energy sources, energy efficiency,and conservation. These measures also include the promotion of investments inrenewable energy resource development and the enhancement of the proportion ofrenewable energy in the total energy mix. Solar technology, in particular, has beenreceiving special attention as an alternative source to enhance the capacity of thecountry to cope with persistent droughts. It is believed that the expansion of solartechnology could buttress the country’s efforts to increase technology diversity moreespecially that this type of technology does not depend on water but requiressunlight, which is typically not affected by persistent droughts. It is for this reasonthat the country has been prioritizing the implementation of solar power technologyas a diversification mechanism. The country’s current solar power capacity stands ata negligible 0.06%. To address this challenge, the country has been encouragingstate utilities to install solar power plants through the use of independent powerproducers (IPP) to ensure smooth, efficient implementation of this strategy. It ishoped that this innovative arrangement will in the end bring on board an additional600 MW of power into the national grid.

6 Implications of Effective Water Management for ClimateResilience Societies

The above examples drawn from the recent climate change challenges and watercrises in Southern African reinforce the belief that human existence and survivaldepend on the ability to overcome obstacles and threats. History has taught us thatover centuries humans have developed specialized means to survive. Other species,for example dinosaurs, became of specialized size as a means of defense. In the caseof humans, they specialized in using their brains to adapt to complexity and change.Through the start of agriculture, humans learned how to plant seeds by looking athow wild plants dropped seeds. The domestication of animals allowed humans tolearn how to tame animals by looking at how wild animals cared for their young. Thetwo adaptation processes – the development of agriculture and animal domestication– caused the nomadic form of hunters’ and gatherers’ existence to disappear.

The current water shortages in Southern Africa provide another lens for under-standing resilience, adaptation, and transformation. In examining this lens, one hasto first consider some important questions: “Is Southern Africa facing a real watercrisis?” Of course, it is recognized that some water users like rural farmers have lostmillions of dollars, and hundreds of their animals have died. But is it the first time theregion is facing water shortages? How has the region survived the many previousperiods of water shortages? Are the causes always external? Possible responses tothese questions reveal that the region has gone through many periods of watershortages in the past. So when is a water crisis a real crisis?

Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: A Resilience. . . 17

The answer depends on the scale of the event and one’s perspective. This isbecause, for example, prehistoric communities used to view disasters as beingglobal, even when such events were localized. Another example can be drawnfrom desert communities. Do these communities ever suffer water crises? Of courseit is debatable! But one thing for sure, desert communities RESPECT the lowcarrying capacity of their water systems. Over the years, they have developed highadaptive capacities. Whether you have too little or too much water, it is clear that awater crisis is essentially a function of the ability of communities to respondadequately to the situation or event. Usually, lack of appropriate response can bedue to a combination of factors such as technological, regulatory, economic, polit-ical, or cultural. The ability of communities to respond also depends on their capacityto process information in the given time to effectively deal with a situation or event.This understanding calls for the appreciation of effective water management as amechanism for building climate resilient societies.

As Perry (2013) contends, the management of water resources is effective if theoutcome for water users is consistent with policy declarations at the relevant level ofgovernance. For example, if national policy dictates that drinking water supplieshave precedence over irrigation, then in the instance of a drought, effective man-agement would require reductions in water supply to irrigation before any restric-tions can be imposed on domestic water use. Similarly, as illustrated by the CapeTown case example, city managers through the “Day Zero” policy had to prioritizedomestic water use over all other uses of water such as industrial and agricultural. Inso doing, the City of Cape Town was able to avoid what could have become one ofthe major climate catastrophes of the century. This it achieved by ensuring that watermanagement was consistent with expressed policy.

From the two case studies above (South Africa and Zambia), it is clear thateffective water management builds institutional capacity from the local level upwardand empowers stakeholders with knowledge and the ability to make decisions aboutmatters that directly affect their lives. It also determines the appropriate role for thegovernment in service delivery (i.e., should government be a facilitator or a serviceprovider) and ensures that the services provided by both public and private actorsmeet the needs of the people they serve. At the heart of effective water managementis the principle of subsidiarity, which suggests that the central government mustundertake only those initiatives that exceed the capacities of individuals and privategroups acting independently. Government must not substitute or abolish privategroups or individual initiatives. Of course this does not in any way suggest that agovernment that governs the least governs the best. On the contrary, governmentshould support individuals and groups to build more resilient societies throughdirecting, urging, restraining, and regulating only as required and when necessary.

In building climate resilient societies, effective water management will requiretimely responses to demands placed on scarce water resources. Successful climatechange mitigation and adaptation will depend on the capacity of water managementagencies to process information on a time scale appropriate to issues at hand. In thecontext of Southern Africa, issues of organizational preparedness and response timewill be central. The implications of failure to respond quickly enough to emerging

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water issues are epitomized in the South African and Zambian examples. As such,the temporal dimension of effective water management suggests that the building ofclimate resilient societies will involve dynamic social processes that happen overtime in a nonlinear fashion, with new situations and opportunities to learn, negotiate,and adapt to.

7 Conclusion

In the last three decades, the management of water resources in Southern Africa hasformed the core basis of international debates on climate change. On one hand, this isbecause climate change has been affecting the hydrological cycle on all scales(CTCN 2017). Strengthening the ability to adapt to these changes is central tobuilding climate resilient societies. On the other hand, it is because water resourcesare considered to play an important role in offering a wide range of ecosystemservices that support human well-being that are currently threatened by climatechange (Nkhata et al. 2017). In Southern Africa, concerns about climate changeand climate variability call for improved management of water resources to copewith more intense floods and droughts. Based on the management of water resourcesat the most adequate level, the enhancement of citizen participation in managementpractices and policy development, and more thoughtful consideration of the mostvulnerable groups (Cap-Net 2008), effective water management can in this contextbe used as an important tool for building climate resilient societies.

Largely due to climate change, the water resources of the region have over timebecome increasingly scarce, a situation that is creating competition and tensionamong user groups and sectors at local, national, and regional levels. The greatvariability of rainfall as well as the growing and diversifying demands on waterresources presents a significant problem for climate resilience and sustainabledevelopment. This chapter has illustrated that water resources are mostly governedin response to changing climatic conditions and the dynamic demands expressed bysociety over time and space. These demands are varied, in a continuous state ofevolution, but based generally on claims for water resources to be cornerstones ofecosystem management, poverty alleviation, and economic development as well as aforce in peaceful relations between countries in the region.

To be sure, among the greatest challenges facing water management agencies inSouthern Africa is the governance of ever-changing and competing demandsexpressed by various constituencies. As societies have become more heterogeneousand diverse, the demands and expectations placed on water resources have alsobroadened, thereby increasing the significance and necessity of effective watermanagement. Evolving demands do not only mean constantly changing the technicalcompetencies and proficiencies needed by water professionals, but also managementagencies must continuously “sense” shifts and changes in societal values.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has long recognized thepotential of effective water management to be used as a means of reconciling variedand changing water uses and demands (IPCC 2007). Effective water management

Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: A Resilience. . . 19

offers greater flexibility and adaptive capacity for building climate resilient societiesthan conventional water management approaches (Cap-Net 2008). Particularly in thecontext of South Africa, it is important that debates on climate change be consideredin the context of reducing vulnerability of poor people, while maintaining theirpotential for resilience and sustainable livelihoods. The IPCC (2007) report calls forenhancement of the ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change as one majorway of reducing the vulnerability of nations or communities. In addition to thisrequirement, this chapter calls for deliberate attention to the role of effective watermanagement in directing societal change and transformation toward climate resilientsocieties.

8 Cross-References

▶Climate Adaptive Urban Water Management Innovations for Low and MiddleIncome Countries

▶Energy Transition in the context of a Climate Resilient Society▶ Integrating Climate Change Considerations into Asset Management▶ Investing in Ecosystems for Water Security: The Case of the Kenya Water Towers▶Mainstreaming Resilience into Urban Climate Change Adaptation and Planning▶Review of Resilient Urban Water Planning Policy and Practice in California▶The Role of Energy at Climate-Resilient Societies▶Water Sensitive Design for Climate Resilience

Acknowledgements This work was supported by the National Academy of Sciences (“NAS”) inthe USA and the National Research Foundation (NRF) of South Africa. The author would also liketo thank the Wold Wide Fund for Nature (Zambia Country Office) for their support through theUpper Zambezi Programme

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