CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER: MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION

THROUGH BETTER WATER MANAGEMENT

CONTENT

1. Climate change and agricultural water linkages

2. Mitigation through better water management

3. Adaptation through better water management

4. Towards new research agenda on water and climate change

WATER SCARCITY 2000

1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

Climate change IMPACTS ON RAINFED AGRICULTURE

• Climate variability will increase: more frequent and severe floods and droughts

• Droughts may decrease yields• Floods may damage crops

and infrastructure• Fluctuations in farmers’

income: poor farmers may lack means to buffer extreme years

1. Climate change and water

Climate change IMPACTS ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE

• Reduced glacier melt in spring (affecting some 17 % of the world’s population, irrigation in Indus, etc)

• Changes in groundwater recharge (affecting irrigation in India, China, US, Mexico)

• Changes in timing and magnitude of river flows (affecting irrigation schemes tapping directly from river, and storage requirements)

• Temperature effects on water productivity unknown

1. Climate change and water

CC IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS

• Changes in wetlands affecting rural livelihoods directly through reduction in recession agriculture, loss of ecosystem services (flood alleviation, low flow maintenance, groundwater recharge)

• Second order impacts – on water quality and water temperature, affecting fisheries

1. Climate change and water linkages

GHG REDUCTION THROUGH WATER MANAGEMENT

• Agriculture and land-use change contribute over 30% of GHG emissions

• Major part of it is deforestation and wetland development / degradation - can contribute CO2 and Methane

• Drainage of wet peatlands for agriculture releases carbon (some 30% of global soil carbon in peatlands)

• Improved tillage practices can sequester carbon • Cleaning reservoir inundated land from forest can reduce

methane emissions• Higher productivity means less crop land globally and hence

less deforestation – less emissions

2. Mitigation through better water management

WATER IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION

• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of KP: afforestation in developing countries to sequester Carbon – direct impacts on hydrology

• Biofuels (as a source of clean energy) take 2000- 3500 liters in crop water evaporation. Impacts on hydrology and on food crops

2. Mitigation through better water management

RETHINKING STORAGE

• Renewed interest in storage infrastructure for irrigation particularly in sub-Saharan Africa

• Explore wide range of options: large scale reservoirs, small village ponds, groundwater, water harvesting (i.e. soil moisture storage), virtual storage (food)

• Diversity of storage options within a basin

• Storage creation processes determine who benefits

3. Adaptation through better water management

INVESTING IN IRRIGATION

Irrigated Area

Food price index

World Bank lending for irrigation

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

01960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

320

280

240

200

160

120

80

40

0

Living Planet Index Freshwater Species

How to avoid?

3. Adaptation through better water management

INCREASING LAND AND WATER PRODUCTIVITY

• Higher productivity means better income, better buffer against income fluctuations due to climate variability

• Water often is a constraint in productivity

• Integration of livestock and fisheries to derive more value per unit of water

3. Adaptation through better water management

BASIN WATER ALLOCATION

• Focus on the basin scale, not coarse global projections

• Large scale infrastructure and basin water transfer should consider climate change scenarios

• Trans-boundary agreements (most African rivers cross more than one country)

• Learn from climate extremes already occurring (Gediz in Turkey, recent floods in Ghana etc.)

3. Adaptation through better water management

EARLY WARNING AND INSURANCE

• Regional but locally focused drought monitoring systems using hydrological-climate indicators and remote sensing techniques

• Developing of drought preparedness plans

• Climate risk assessment and climate insurance schemes

3. Adaptation through better water management

IWMI’S NICHE

Global GCM

Basin water impacts

Agricultural impacts

Adaptive water management

IWMI’s niche

4. Towards new research agenda on water and CC

NEW RESEARCH QUESTIONS

• What are the impacts of climate change on water at river basin and farm scale?

• What are water implications of climate mitigation measures?

• What are the most promising measures in water management to minimize small farmers’ vulnerability to climate change ?

– Implications for environment– Enabling institutional environment

• What water related investments are needed? By whom, where?

4. Towards new research agenda on water and CC

THANK YOU