Climate Change and the Prospects Climate Change and the Prospects of Increased Navigation in the of Increased Navigation in the

Canadian Arctic:Canadian Arctic:Some issues to consider for Some issues to consider for

ICCMI 2008ICCMI 2008

Aldo ChircopAldo ChircopMarine & Environmental Law Institute, Marine & Environmental Law Institute,

Dalhousie University,Dalhousie University,Halifax, NS, CanadaHalifax, NS, Canada

The argumentThe argument IPCC: IPCC:

““The Arctic is very likely to warm during this century in most The Arctic is very likely to warm during this century in most areas, and the annual mean warming is very likely to exceed the areas, and the annual mean warming is very likely to exceed the global mean warming. Warming is projected to be largest in global mean warming. Warming is projected to be largest in winter and smallest in summer. … Arctic sea ice is very likely to winter and smallest in summer. … Arctic sea ice is very likely to decrease in extent and thickness. It is uncertain how the Arctic decrease in extent and thickness. It is uncertain how the Arctic Ocean circulation will change. “ (IPCC, 2007).Ocean circulation will change. “ (IPCC, 2007).

Summer ice disappearing at the rate of 3% per decade Summer ice disappearing at the rate of 3% per decade (USONR, 2001).(USONR, 2001).

Significance:Significance: ““Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and

access to resources” (ACIA, 2004)access to resources” (ACIA, 2004) Ecological disruptions and northward movements of some Ecological disruptions and northward movements of some

marine resources will be likely (USARC, undated).marine resources will be likely (USARC, undated). Dramatic decrease of Arctic ice by 2050 is conceivable.Dramatic decrease of Arctic ice by 2050 is conceivable.

Would a decrease in the ice cover necessarily result in reliable ice-Would a decrease in the ice cover necessarily result in reliable ice-free summer season commercial navigation?free summer season commercial navigation?

If increased Arctic commercial navigation becomes likely, what If increased Arctic commercial navigation becomes likely, what additional measures in the interests of safety of navigation and additional measures in the interests of safety of navigation and environment protection would become necessary and by when?environment protection would become necessary and by when?

Arctic fragility Arctic fragility

The Arctic coastal and marine environment is The Arctic coastal and marine environment is arguably one of the most sensitive to human arguably one of the most sensitive to human disturbance: hence the adoption of the law of the disturbance: hence the adoption of the law of the sea rule on ice-covered areas to justify higher sea rule on ice-covered areas to justify higher standards of protection than the normal standards of protection than the normal international norm (UNCLOS, 1982, Art. 234).international norm (UNCLOS, 1982, Art. 234).

The Arctic has not been fully charted and some The Arctic has not been fully charted and some navigation charts are notoriously out of date navigation charts are notoriously out of date (CMMC, 2006, per Potts, CCG).(CMMC, 2006, per Potts, CCG).

UNCLOS, 1982UNCLOS, 1982SECTION 8: ICE-COVERED AREASSECTION 8: ICE-COVERED AREAS

Article 234Article 234Ice-covered areasIce-covered areas

Coastal States have the right to adopt and enforce non-Coastal States have the right to adopt and enforce non-discriminatory laws and regulations for the prevention, discriminatory laws and regulations for the prevention, reduction and control of marine pollution from vessels in reduction and control of marine pollution from vessels in ice-covered areas within the limits of the exclusive ice-covered areas within the limits of the exclusive economic zone, where particularly severe climatic economic zone, where particularly severe climatic conditions and the presence of ice covering such areas conditions and the presence of ice covering such areas for most of the year create obstructions or exceptional for most of the year create obstructions or exceptional hazards to navigation, and pollution of the marine hazards to navigation, and pollution of the marine environment could cause major harm to or irreversible environment could cause major harm to or irreversible disturbance of the ecological balance. Such laws and disturbance of the ecological balance. Such laws and regulations shall have due regard to navigation and the regulations shall have due regard to navigation and the protection and preservation of the marine environment protection and preservation of the marine environment based on the best available scientific evidence.based on the best available scientific evidence.

Potential commercial navigation in Potential commercial navigation in the Arcticthe Arctic

The Arctic ocean proper.The Arctic ocean proper. Northeast passage (now known as the Northern Northeast passage (now known as the Northern

Sea Route) through the Russian Arctic.Sea Route) through the Russian Arctic. Northwest passage through the Canadian Arctic Northwest passage through the Canadian Arctic

(consisting of a package of routes through the (consisting of a package of routes through the Canadian Arctic archipelago) between Europe Canadian Arctic archipelago) between Europe and Asia (Wilson et al., 2004):and Asia (Wilson et al., 2004): 9,000 km shorter than the Panama Canal route9,000 km shorter than the Panama Canal route 17,000 km shorter than the Cape Horn route17,000 km shorter than the Cape Horn route

Potential Navigation Routes in the Arctic

Source: Arctic Council,

2006

Potential maritime industry interests Potential maritime industry interests in the Arcticin the Arctic

Hydrocarbons and minerals.Hydrocarbons and minerals. Commercial shipping:Commercial shipping:

Asia/Europe/North America tradesAsia/Europe/North America trades Shipbuilding & shiprepairingShipbuilding & shiprepairing InsuranceInsurance PortsPorts Services (e.g., pilotage, salvage, etc.)Services (e.g., pilotage, salvage, etc.)

Fishing.Fishing. Tourism.Tourism.

Decreasing ice cover is a fact, but Decreasing ice cover is a fact, but how realistic is a concomitant how realistic is a concomitant

increase in international increase in international commercial navigation through the commercial navigation through the

Northwest Passage?Northwest Passage?

The optimistsThe optimists Huebert, 2001:Huebert, 2001:

Commercial navigation will become more feasible as Commercial navigation will become more feasible as the Northwest Passage becomes ice-free.the Northwest Passage becomes ice-free.

US Office for Naval Research, 2001; USARC, US Office for Naval Research, 2001; USARC, undated:undated: Summertime disappearance of ice in the Arctic Ocean Summertime disappearance of ice in the Arctic Ocean

likely by 2050: Canadian archipelago and Alaskan likely by 2050: Canadian archipelago and Alaskan coast will be ice-free and navigable every summer by coast will be ice-free and navigable every summer by non-ice-breaking ships.non-ice-breaking ships.

Northwest Passage will be open to non-ice Northwest Passage will be open to non-ice strengthened vessels for at least one month each strengthened vessels for at least one month each summer.summer.

““Ice free” understood as a navigable Arctic with ice-Ice free” understood as a navigable Arctic with ice-infested waters.infested waters.

The skepticsThe skeptics CMMC, 2006 comments:CMMC, 2006 comments:

Falkingham (EC): although the Arctic summer Falkingham (EC): although the Arctic summer shipping season may be extended by the end shipping season may be extended by the end of the century (from 3 to 6 months), the NWP of the century (from 3 to 6 months), the NWP is not likely to become an east-west corridor is not likely to become an east-west corridor because of extreme inter-annual variability.because of extreme inter-annual variability.

Potts (CCG): virtually no infrastructure to Potts (CCG): virtually no infrastructure to support ships in the Arctic (no ship repair support ships in the Arctic (no ship repair facilities, no fuel supplies; only one dock in facilities, no fuel supplies; only one dock in the region, Nanisivik).the region, Nanisivik).

Barry: reinforced ships are more expensive to Barry: reinforced ships are more expensive to navigate in open water due to increased fuel navigate in open water due to increased fuel consumption.consumption.

More skepticismMore skepticism Griffiths, 2005:Griffiths, 2005:

““Unpredictability, not conditions clearly Unpredictability, not conditions clearly favourable to navigation, is the net effect of favourable to navigation, is the net effect of climate change on the Northwest passage climate change on the Northwest passage thus far.”thus far.”

Predictions of heavy use of Arctic North Predictions of heavy use of Arctic North American waters by major shipping firms in American waters by major shipping firms in 2020s & 2030s cannot be sustained, although 2020s & 2030s cannot be sustained, although increase of ships traffic to transport increase of ships traffic to transport hydrocarbons, minerals and fishing vessels hydrocarbons, minerals and fishing vessels conceivable.conceivable.

More from GriffithsMore from Griffiths Although the Atlantic-Pacific navigation through the Although the Atlantic-Pacific navigation through the

NWP is shorter through the Arctic than Suez or NWP is shorter through the Arctic than Suez or Panama canals, passage is not likely commercially Panama canals, passage is not likely commercially feasible because:feasible because: Short navigation season (arctic summer).Short navigation season (arctic summer). Likely continued lack of predictability of ice movement.Likely continued lack of predictability of ice movement. Insufficient navigation charts/data for the region.Insufficient navigation charts/data for the region. Higher expense of polar class vessels (additional equipment Higher expense of polar class vessels (additional equipment

& training required under the IMO Polar Code).& training required under the IMO Polar Code). Risks of delay.Risks of delay. Insurance costs. Insurance costs. Etc.Etc.

A sobering possible scenario A sobering possible scenario (Wilson et al., 2004, based on Canadian Ice Service work)(Wilson et al., 2004, based on Canadian Ice Service work)

Melting first year ice around the Queen Elisabeth Islands Melting first year ice around the Queen Elisabeth Islands areas may permit old ice to drift into the Northwest areas may permit old ice to drift into the Northwest passage, and a southern shift of the Beaufort Sea ice passage, and a southern shift of the Beaufort Sea ice pack, thereby increasing the rate and supply of ice in the pack, thereby increasing the rate and supply of ice in the Passage.Passage.

Possible effects include blockage of the western Possible effects include blockage of the western Passage routes and drifting of old ice creating choke Passage routes and drifting of old ice creating choke points in narrow channels.points in narrow channels.

Multi-year ice is extremely strong and dangerous, Multi-year ice is extremely strong and dangerous, thereby increasing hazards to navigation and the marine thereby increasing hazards to navigation and the marine environment.environment.

Navigation in the North West Passage will continue to Navigation in the North West Passage will continue to face a wide range of possible ice conditions.face a wide range of possible ice conditions.

A false sense of optimism?A false sense of optimism?

Northwest Passages in the Canadian ArcticSource: Wilson et al., 2004

Canada’s sovereignty concernCanada’s sovereignty concern Canada claims sovereignty over the waters of the Arctic Canada claims sovereignty over the waters of the Arctic

archipelago and considers their status as internal waters. archipelago and considers their status as internal waters. US protest.US protest.

If there is increased international shipping activity in the If there is increased international shipping activity in the Northwest Passage, could its status change to that of an Northwest Passage, could its status change to that of an international strait? UNCLOS concerns.international strait? UNCLOS concerns.

Would protection under the Arctic Waters Pollution Would protection under the Arctic Waters Pollution Prevention Act and UNCLOS Art. 234 on ice-covered Prevention Act and UNCLOS Art. 234 on ice-covered areas be sufficient? areas be sufficient?

Or should Canada (and neighbours) consider MARPOL Or should Canada (and neighbours) consider MARPOL 73/78 special areas and PSSAs as potential tools? 73/78 special areas and PSSAs as potential tools?

Would the above be consistent with its sovereignty Would the above be consistent with its sovereignty claim?claim?

Work of the Arctic CouncilWork of the Arctic Council

Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy, 1991.Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy, 1991. Arctic Council established in 1996.Arctic Council established in 1996. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004.Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004. Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment

(PAME):(PAME): Arctic Marine Strategic Plan (employing an ecosystem Arctic Marine Strategic Plan (employing an ecosystem

approach).approach). Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment, 2005-2008 (led Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment, 2005-2008 (led

by Canada, Finland, US) – final report to be by Canada, Finland, US) – final report to be presented in fall 2008.presented in fall 2008.

IMO Polar Code & IACSIMO Polar Code & IACS IMO has started to anticipate the prospect of IMO has started to anticipate the prospect of

increased navigation in Arctic ice-covered increased navigation in Arctic ice-covered waters by persuading IACS to move away from waters by persuading IACS to move away from traditional hull classifications and towards traditional hull classifications and towards polarworthiness (i.e., winterization of the hull polarworthiness (i.e., winterization of the hull and crew):and crew): Guidelines for Ships Operating in Arctic Ice-Covered Guidelines for Ships Operating in Arctic Ice-Covered

Waters, IMO Doc. MSC/Circ.1056, MEPC/Circ. 399, Waters, IMO Doc. MSC/Circ.1056, MEPC/Circ. 399, 23 December 2002 (IMO Polar Code, 2002).23 December 2002 (IMO Polar Code, 2002). ConstructionConstruction EquipmentEquipment OperationsOperations Environment protection and damage controlEnvironment protection and damage control

IACS responded with a unified approach.IACS responded with a unified approach.

Source: IMO Polar Code, 2002

Arctic Ice-Covered

Waters for the purposes of the IMO Polar Code

Conclusion: Conclusion: Some issues for ICCMI 2008?Some issues for ICCMI 2008?

Compare the NWP to the Northern Sea Route in terms of Compare the NWP to the Northern Sea Route in terms of likely development of new international polar navigation likely development of new international polar navigation routes.routes.

Does anything else need to be done from an international Does anything else need to be done from an international maritime regulatory perspective at this time? Is the Polar maritime regulatory perspective at this time? Is the Polar Code sufficient?Code sufficient?

Colreg: how would these rules (e.g., action to avoid Colreg: how would these rules (e.g., action to avoid collision) apply in ice-covered waters?collision) apply in ice-covered waters?

Should MARPOL 73/78 special areas and possibly PSSAs Should MARPOL 73/78 special areas and possibly PSSAs be designated in the Arctic Ocean as a precautionary be designated in the Arctic Ocean as a precautionary measure? Could this be done before there is an actual, measure? Could this be done before there is an actual, imminent or reasonably foreseeable threat from imminent or reasonably foreseeable threat from international shipping activity? What would port reception international shipping activity? What would port reception facility requirements be in Arctic ports?facility requirements be in Arctic ports?

Salvage: what issues can be expected to arise? Places of Salvage: what issues can be expected to arise? Places of refuge too?refuge too?

More issuesMore issues With increased international navigation, what search and With increased international navigation, what search and

rescue regime is conceivable in the Arctic Ocean?rescue regime is conceivable in the Arctic Ocean? Should there be conditions/restrictions on the types of Should there be conditions/restrictions on the types of

cargoes that can be moved through the Arctic?cargoes that can be moved through the Arctic? Are the current compensation regimes sufficient to Are the current compensation regimes sufficient to

mitigate losses/damage in an Arctic environment?mitigate losses/damage in an Arctic environment? Should commercial international cross-polar navigation Should commercial international cross-polar navigation

become a reality, who should pay for the expensive become a reality, who should pay for the expensive infrastructure needed to support international shipping? infrastructure needed to support international shipping?

Using UNCLOS Art. 234, may a coastal state adopt Using UNCLOS Art. 234, may a coastal state adopt standards for navigation in ice-covered areas higher than standards for navigation in ice-covered areas higher than the international norm, and possibly without going the international norm, and possibly without going through the IMO? through the IMO?

ReferencesReferences Arctic Council, 2006.Arctic Council, 2006. Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment: The Arctic Council’s Response to Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment: The Arctic Council’s Response to

Changing Marine Access. PAME, Progress Report, October 2006.Changing Marine Access. PAME, Progress Report, October 2006. CMMC, 2006.CMMC, 2006. Review of the Seminar “Canadian Arctic Issues in a Changing Climate,” organized Review of the Seminar “Canadian Arctic Issues in a Changing Climate,” organized

by the Company of Master Mariners of Canada in conjunction with the Marine Affairs Program of by the Company of Master Mariners of Canada in conjunction with the Marine Affairs Program of Dalhousie University and Lloyd’s register, North America, December 2006 (revised January Dalhousie University and Lloyd’s register, North America, December 2006 (revised January 2007).2007).

Griffiths, 2005.Griffiths, 2005. F. Griffiths, “New Illusions for a Northwest Passage.” In M. Nordquist et al., F. Griffiths, “New Illusions for a Northwest Passage.” In M. Nordquist et al., International Energy Policy, The Arctic and the Law of the SeaInternational Energy Policy, The Arctic and the Law of the Sea (Leiden: Nijhoff, 2005), 303-319. (Leiden: Nijhoff, 2005), 303-319.

IMO Polar Code, 2002.IMO Polar Code, 2002. Guidelines for Ships Operating in Arctic Ice-Covered Waters, IMO Doc. Guidelines for Ships Operating in Arctic Ice-Covered Waters, IMO Doc. MSC/Circ.1056, MEPC/Circ. 399, 23 December 2002.MSC/Circ.1056, MEPC/Circ. 399, 23 December 2002.

Huebert, 2001.Huebert, 2001. R. Huebert, “Climate Change and Canadian Sovereignty in the Northwest R. Huebert, “Climate Change and Canadian Sovereignty in the Northwest Passage.” 2 ISUMA (Winter 2001).Passage.” 2 ISUMA (Winter 2001).

IPPC, 2007.IPPC, 2007. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Draft 4 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Draft 4 thth Assessment Report. WG1 Assessment Report. WG1 report: The Physical Science Basis, Chap. 11 Regional Climate Projections, online: http://ipcc-report: The Physical Science Basis, Chap. 11 Regional Climate Projections, online: http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Pub_Ch11.pdfwg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Pub_Ch11.pdf

Newton, 2005.Newton, 2005. G. B. Newton, “Coming to the Arctic: Oil, Ships and UNCLOS Plus.” In M. G. B. Newton, “Coming to the Arctic: Oil, Ships and UNCLOS Plus.” In M. Nordquist et al., Nordquist et al., International Energy Policy, The Arctic and the Law of the SeaInternational Energy Policy, The Arctic and the Law of the Sea (Leiden: Nijhoff, (Leiden: Nijhoff, 2005), 321-335.2005), 321-335.

USARC, undated.USARC, undated. United States Arctic Research Commission, “The Arctic Ocean and Climate United States Arctic Research Commission, “The Arctic Ocean and Climate Change: A Sceario for the US Navy.” Arlington, VA.: USARC, undated).Change: A Sceario for the US Navy.” Arlington, VA.: USARC, undated).

USONR, 2001.USONR, 2001. US Office for Naval Research et al., Naval Operations in an Ice-Free Arctic. US Office for Naval Research et al., Naval Operations in an Ice-Free Arctic. Symposium 17-18 April 2001 (Arlington, VA: US Office for Naval Research, 2001).Symposium 17-18 April 2001 (Arlington, VA: US Office for Naval Research, 2001).

Wilson et al., 2004.Wilson et al., 2004. K.J. Wilson, J. Falkingham, H. Melling and R. De Abreu, “Shipping in the K.J. Wilson, J. Falkingham, H. Melling and R. De Abreu, “Shipping in the Canadian Arctic: Other Possible Climate Change Scenarios”. Congrès IGARSS 2004  (Science Canadian Arctic: Other Possible Climate Change Scenarios”. Congrès IGARSS 2004  (Science for society: exploring and managing a changing planet)  (2004 IEEE International Geoscience for society: exploring and managing a changing planet)  (2004 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium)  (proceedings)  (20-24 September, 2004, Anchorage, Alaska).and Remote Sensing Symposium)  (proceedings)  (20-24 September, 2004, Anchorage, Alaska).