Climate Change and Sustainable Urban Growth

University of

Tehran

GERA: An Optimized Model for National

Sustainable Development

By: Majid Shafie-Pour

Climate Change

The most challenging threats during past decades

… 398.58 ppm

1

GHGs emission pathways consistent

with 2 ºC warming

Keohane, N. and P. Goldmark (2008), Environmental Defense Fund 2

Climate Change efforts, but …

… not enough achievements! 3

Equity Principles &

Burden Sharing Rules

Interpretation Equity

principle

Equal rights of people to use atmospheric resources Egalitarian

Rate of emissions constituting the current status quo Sovereignty

Similar economic circumstances have similar emission rights and burden sharing responsibilities

Horizontal

The greater the ability to pay, the greater the economic burden

Vertical

The abatement burden corresponds to the level of emissions

Polluter pays

4

Emission Cuts or Emission

Allocations? The equity principles would be applied in two

different ways:

1-Fair emission reductions

2- Fair emission allocations

5

Equity for whom?

The unit of analysis for Equity:

Equity for Individuals or Equity for Nations

6

An optimized model for sustainable

development planning based on “Horizontal

Equity” concept and “GHGs Emissions

Reduction-Allocation” from national

perspectives.

What is GERA?

7

GERA Model

GERA (Built-in equity principles)

Fair

GHGs

Emission

Reduction

(National)

Fair

GHGs

Emission

Allocation

(National)

8

Case Study: IRAN

Positioned in west of Asia- Middle East,

The world's 17th economy*,

The world's 25th GDP,

76 million population,

31 Provinces …

* International Monetary Fund 9

National Emission Reduction Goals

2010 2020

GH

Gs

Em

issi

ons

Year

10 Years

20%

10

Fair Emission Reduction Indicators

Equity

indicators (emission cuts)

3

4

5

6

2

1

7

Per capita of emissions

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

CO2 emissions per unit of GDP

GDP per capita

Population

Accumulated CO2 emissions (2001-2011)

CO2 per unit of industrial added value 11

CI- 1 CI- 2

CI- 3

Fair Emission Reduction

Comprehensive Index

12

Construction of “Comprehensive Index (CI-1)”

Ri: Percentage emission reduction target for province i

A: GHGs emission per capita

B: GDP

C: Emissions per unit of GDP

D: GDP per capita

Z: Correction factor

w: Weighting coefficient as w = 100.

13

Weighting Coefficients

Values

Case 1,

Equally

weighting

Case 2,

Preferring

CO2 per

capita

Case 3,

Preferring

CO2 per

GDP

Case 4,

Preferring

GDP per

capita

Case 5,

AHP

approach

WA

(CO2 per capita) 25 55 15 10 45.45

WB

(GDP) 25 15 15 10 15.15

WC

(CO2 per GDP) 25 15 55 10 9.09

WD

(GDP per capita) 25 15 15 70 30.30

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) 14

Fair Emission Reduction Shares

15

%

“Comprehensive Index (CI-2)”

Ei: Percentage share of population for province i

Fi: Percentage share of CO2 emission for province i

Gi: Percentage share of GDP for province i

w: Weighting coefficient as w = 1.

16

Weighting Coefficients

Values

Case 1,

Equally

weighting

Case 2 Case 3 Case 4

Case 5,

AHP

approach

WE (population) 0.33 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.14

WF (emission) 0.33 0.6 0.8 0.35 0.57

WG (GDP) 0.33 0.35 0.15 0.6 0.29

17

Fair Emission Reduction Shares

18

%

“Comprehensive Index (CI-3)”

Ri: Percentage emission reduction target for province i

A: GHGs emission per capita

D: GDP per capita

H: GHGs cumulative emission

J: GHGs emission per unit of added value

Z: Correction factor

w: Weighting coefficient as w = 100.

19

Weighting Coefficients

Values

Case 1,

Equally

weighting

Case 2,

Preferring

CO2 per

capita

Case 3,

Preferring

CO2 per

GDP

Case 4,

Preferring

GDP per

capita

Case 5,

AHP

approach

WA

(CO2 per capita) 25 30 20 20 41.67

WD

(GDP per capita) 25 30 20 20 27.78

WH

(CO2 cumulative) 25 20 20 40 16.67

WJ (CO2/AV) 25 20 40 20 13.88

20

Fair Emission Reduction Shares

21

%

Effects on National GDP Reductions

(%)

AddedValue

CO2

7-9% Reduction in GDP for

20% Reduction in GHGs

CI-1 CI-2 CI-3

22

Allocation of National Emission

Permits

23

Fair Emission Allocation Indicators

Equity Indicators

(emission

allocation)

1

2

3

4

5

Population share

Per capita of GDP

Per capita of accumulated emissions

Preserving future development opportunities

Per capita of carbon efficiency of production

24

Quantifying Principles & Proposals

: share of Population in each province

: share of GDP in each province

Pi : population of each province

P

i

GDP

i

25

Quantifying Principles & Proposals

: share of Carbon Productivity

: share of Historical Emissions in per capita

: Added Value

CP

iHE

i

AV

26

Quantifying Principles & Proposals

: the per capita share of Current Emissions

: the share of Future Development

Opportunity of each province

CE

i

FDO

i

27

“Comprehensive Index”

CP

i

FDO

i

HE

i

GDP

i

P

i

EQ

i xxxxx .. 54321

Values Equally

weighting

Preferring

capacity

(GDP)

Preferring

Responsibility

(HE)

Preferring

development

potential (FDO)

Preferring

emission

productivity (CP)

X1 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15

X2 0.2 0.4 0.15 0.15 0.15

X3 0.2 0.15 0.4 0.15 0.15

X4 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.4 0.15

X5 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.4

Xi 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 28

National Emission Allocation Share

%

29

Future Research Program …

An Optimized Distribution Model for GHGs

Emissions in Different Regions of Iran

Using Game Theory*, from Sustainable

Development Perspective.

30

* 1921: Emile Borel

1994: John Nash

Objectives for Development Plan in

Iran …

• Resources Distribution

• Population Distribution

• Emission Allocation Permits

• Unemployment Rate

• Needs & Potentials

• …

31

Development Plan of Iran …

Non-cooperative

Cooperative

32

Development Plan of Iran …

33

Development Plan of Iran …

34