Climate Change and Response

Climate Change and Response

Sustainable Development Practice

in China

• Climate change is unequivocal;• Impacts in China;• Responsibility and burden sharing• China is a developing country• Efforts made in China for mitigation• Towards adaptation• Summary

According to IPCC report AR4: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now

evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.

At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include:

– Changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, – Widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity,

wind patterns – and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy

precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones

Changes in Precipitation, Increased Drought

• Significantly increased precipitation in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia.

• The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas - consistent with warming and increases of atmospheric water vapour

• Drying in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia.

• More intense and longer droughts observed since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics.

According to China Meteorological Administration, the climate in China:

Drought frequency Flooding frequency

Temperature Rainfall

Average landed typhoons: 7/a

The annual sand/dust storm during spring in the northern

China: 5.5 days/a

（ Global data from HadCRUTv3 and China data from Wang et al ）

Warming of the globe and China

Global

China

2007 was the warmest year since 1951

（ Center on Climate Change, CMA ）

10.1℃

Mean temperature changes in China (1958-2007)

（中国气象局国家气候中心）

（U

nit: ºC per decade）


Western: increase from 15% to 50% ； Eastern: “wetter in the south and drier in the north”; Southern: increase from 5% to10%; Northern: decrease by 10%-30%

Precipitation in China (1958~2007)

“Three Gorges” dam:1994~2006

Changes in number of storming days

2030 2050 2100

0.6-1.0℃ 1.2-2.0℃ 2.2-4.2℃

Future annual mean surface air temperature and precipitation changes over China (Relative to 1980-1999)

• Precipitation is likely to increase by 2-3% in 2020• Precipitation is likely to increase by 2-5% in 2050• Precipitation is likely to increase by 6-14% by the

end of 21st CenturyAnnu

al

prec

ipit

atio

n ch

ange

sSu

rfac

e ai

r te

mpe

ratu

re


2000-2008

1950s

Highest frequency90%

1960s


1970s


1980s


1990s


20 Century 21 CenturyBlue: Frequency of more prec.; Red: Frequency of less prec.

Inter-Decadal Variation of Summer Precipitation

• Further northward migration of summer precipitation in China? • Contribution of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing?

Happening recently:

Storming and flooding in 2010 …

Landslide: 1467 died,

298 missing

In 2011 … “seeing sea in cities”

Chengdu 07/03

Nanjing 07/18 Beijing 06/23

Changsha 06/28

Shenyang 07/20

Wuhan 06/18

Leaking of toxic wastewater from Hengary aluminum factory 10/5

Sequential events

Toxic mug leaking 6/29

Solid waste at Three-Gorges

7000 drums of toxic chemicals down-washed with flooding in Jilin 7/28

Flooding in South Asia

2010 Flooding in Pakistan, 1539 died, 17 million affected

2010 Flooding in India

2011: July to November, flooding in southern Thailand

Causing over 500 casual; 16 of 55 districts of Bangkok affected; ~~~ a long-term trend?

Responsibility and burden sharing

Responsibility and burden sharing

• Responsibility: polluter pays, common and differentiated responsibilities, based on accumulated (effective) emissions, and equity (per capita) principle;

• The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, an American think tank close to progressive business, has made a proposal using a set of three criteria to divide countries into three groups. These criteria, standard of living, responsibility and opportunity, consist, in turn, of different indicators.

• Responsibility for causing climate change is defined in terms of countries’ historical and current total emissions, emissions per capita and projected future emissions. Historical emissions are defined as the cumulative CO2 emissions during the period 1950–95. Estimated growth in emissions is extrapolated using the average annual growth in emissions in 1992–95.

• Standard of living reflects the fact that in poor countries emissions very often stem from an effort to meet basic necessities and that richer nations are better equipped to cut down emission levels. The indicator used for defining the standard of living is gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

• The opportunity criterion factors in the differences between countries’ chances to reduce emissions. It is defined according to the energy intensity of the economy, i.e. the amount of energy that is used to produce a given economic unit of output.

• Finally, the Pew Center divides countries into three groups, or tiers, according to these criteria.

– “Must Act Now” includes the majority of OECD countries, a few transition economies, economically more prosperous southern nations (e.g. Chile, Israel and Malaysia) as well as some oil-producing countries, such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

– “Should Act Now, But Differently” is comprised of the majority of the transition economies, the rest of the western industrialised nations as well as a good number of middle-income developing countries.

– The rest of the developing countries fall into “Could Act Now”.

• According to UNSD, China CO2 emission has reached the first place since 2006.

CO2 emissions in major countries (2007)

Common and differentiated responsibilities

China (Mainland) annual total carbon emission reached No 1中国大陆年碳排放总量已经达到世界第一

Annual carbon emission from fuel in 1900-2010Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) Data http://cdiac.ornl.gov/

USA

Chinamainland

India

Accumulated carbon emission is low, but rising quickly累积碳排放量低，但在迅速增大

Accumulated carbon emission from fuel in 1900-2010, based on CDIAC

USA

Chinamainland

India

Accumulated “surviving” carbon emission ~ “Natural debt”累积“留存”碳排放量 ~ 国家自然债务指数

Based on the Siegenthaler formula, cited by K. R. Smith 1996:

USA

Chinamainland

India

Per capita emission is low, just exceeded global average

Per capita carbon emissions for fuel in 1950~2010, based on CDIAC

USA

Chinamainland

Global

Accumulated “per capita emission” of China is also low 中国累计人均碳排放量也仍然低

Accumulated per capita carbon emissions from 1950~2010, based on CDIAC

China (m)

Per capita “natural debt” of China is also low 中国人均碳排放自然债务指数也仍然低

Based upon the national natural debt curves

China (m)

Fossil Fuel & Cement CO2 Emissions

Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Marland et al. 2009

Growth rate1990-1999

1% per year

Growth rate2000-2010

3.1% per year

Growth rate20105.9% yr

Growth rate2009

-1.3% per year

Uncertainty (6-10%)

+-

2010 Growth Rates

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

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2005

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Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top EmittersC

arbo

n Em

issi

ons

per y

ear

(C to

ns x

1,0

00,0

00)

Time (y)

China

USA

Japan

Russian Fed.

India0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 2000 2010

10.4%

9.4%

4.1%

5.8%6.8%

Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

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1998

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Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Profile Examples

0

20

60

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UK

Denmark

AustraliaSpain

Canada

Car

bon

Emis

sion

s pe

r yea

r (C

tons

x 1

,000

,000

)

The Netherlands

2010

Time (y)

100

1990 2000 2010

Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011

CHINA

USAIN

DIA

RUSSIA

JAPAN

GERMANYIR

AN

SOUTH KOREA

CANADA

SAUDI ARABIA

UNITED KIN

GDOM

INDONESIA

MEXICO

SOUTH AFRIC

A

BRAZIL

ITALY (in

cl. S

an M

arino

)

AUSTRALIA

FRANCE (incl.

Mon

aco)

POLAND

THAILAND

0

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1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

0

1

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Top 20 CO2 FF Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2010

Global Carbon Project 2011; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Population World Bank 2011

0

500

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2500

Tota

l Car

bon

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ns x

1,0

00,0

00)

Per Capita Em

issions (tons C

person y-1)

Figure 1.5: Intensities of energy use and CO2 emissions, 1970–2004.

PPP ~ Purchasing Power Parity TPES ~ Total Primary Energy Supply

Figure 1.6: Decomposition of global energy-related CO2 emission changes at the global scale for three historical and three future decades.

Laspeyres decomposition

China Response to Climate Change

Efforts by China• Family plan;• Forestation;• National information reports to UNFCCC (2004)• China climate change report (2005)• National action plan in responding to climate

change (2007)• Commitment (2010) of reducing carbon strength

by 40~45% in 2020;• “Low carbon” technology and development• Alternative and renewable energy development:

wind power, solar energy, and nuclear power stations

• “Xiaokang Society”• Eco-city development and “Eco-civilization”

Example: no centralized heating in the southern China: south to Huai River

Need thermal underware?

Shanghai actionsThe four key measures in the 2007 Implementation Plan:

– Re-form or restructure 3000 coal burning boilers and furnaces to save 200,000 tons of coal. To 2010, to reach energy saving capacity of 3 million tons of coal and accumulated saving by 9 million tons of coal.

– Installing desulfurization device in 14 coal burning power plants; wastewater collecting pipeline network in metropolitan area; the 3rd phase construction; upgrading of ZhuYuan and BaiLongGang wastewater plants; 25 more wastewater plants; pipeline network for 30 wastewater plants; 28 industrial wastewater collecting pipeline network

– Optimizing power generation mode to replace electricity 2.3 billion kWh, saving 200,000 coal; With public transportation priority (33%), completing 420 km subway/sky train system and 300 km pub-bus special line system; New constructions should apply 50% energy saving standard of China and to reach 65%; Energy saving reform/reconstructions on 30 million m2 building; and energy saving diagnostics for large scale (>3000 m2) commercial buildings.

– Strengthening the management in key energy consumption enterprises, e.g., by means of on-line monitoring, for reach over 95% pollutant attainment discharges.

Shanghai actionsTen key energy saving projects (since 2007):

– Electric appliances energy saving 用电设备节电工程、– Energy supply system optimization 能量系统优化工程、– Waste heat and pressure utilization 余热余压利用节能工程、– Coal burning boiler and furnace 燃煤工业锅炉窑炉节煤工程、– Construction energy saving 建筑节能工程、– Air conditioning and home appliance 空调和家用电器等节电工程、– Green lighting 绿色照明工程、– Distributive energy supply 分布式供能等工程、– Metropolitan transportation and alternative fuel 城市交通节约和替代石油工程、– Government energy saving 政府机构节能工程。

Shanghai actions• In 2006~2009

– Shanghai energy intensity (energy consumption of unit GDP) has reduced by 17.12%. It is of 84.14% of the target of Shanghai’s 11th Five-Year Plan. In 2010, this index should be further reduced by 3.6%.

– SO2 and COD emissions have reduced in these four years by 26.1% and 19.9%, already reached the planned targets (26% and 15%).

• EXPO2010:– Solar power generation over 5MW, and 1000 new energy cars should

reduce carbon emission by 0.280 Mt– Close up 800,000 kW small scale coal burning power plants; 500,000 sets

of energy saving air conditioners; 12 million energy saving lamps etc.• Problem: during the first quarter of 2010, energy consumption was

increased by 16.96% in comparison of 2009. Electricity consumed by 16.79%, and the development trend of heavy industries is difficult to be controlled.

• Renewable energy– Wind power: On shore 24.4 MW (2008), Offshore wind power 100 MW – Solar energy: Over 5MW at EXPO and Chongming Island, etc.

For example:Subway and sky trains• London: 408 km• New York: 370 km• Tokyo: subway 286.2 km + trains ~ 1000 km• Shanghai (2010) 420 km, to extend to 567 km

in 2012 and 877 km in 2020 towards 1000 km

Shanghai studies in academic aspect• Shanghai per capita carbon emission is close to EU OECD countries

上海人均碳排放量已经达到欧洲发达国家的水平• Related researches 相关研究

– Qian JIe and Yu Lizhong 2003: Study on contribution of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel in Shanghai 钱杰，俞立中 2003

– WANG Bingyan et al. 2004: Local air pollutant and CO2 emissions scenarios under low carbon development ： Shanghai case study 王冰研，陈长虹等 2004

– The current group 2007 ， 2009: Carbon emission reduction in Shanghai 本组 2007,2009– Guo Yungong et al. 2009: The decomposition research on energy-related carbon emissions of

Shanghai 郭运功，林逢春等 2009– Zhao Minet al. 2009: Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in Shanghai City 赵敏，俞立中 2009– In Blue Book of Shanghai Annual Repot on Resources and Environment of Shanghai

(2010)• Peng Weibin: On the driving forces of Shanghai low carbon economy development• Liu Xinyu: Shanghai low carbon city development coordinates• Liang Xiaohui et al.: The long term view of Shanghai low carbon city development 刘新宇、彭伟斌、梁朝晖 2010

• Main findings 主要成果– Carbon emission amount, emission strength, and emission per capita 上海市碳排放量，碳排放强度（ GDP ，人均）– Main influential factors: population, heavy industry, transportation, construction, and improving

living standards. 影碳排放的主要因素：人口、大工业、交通、建筑、生活水平– Limited influence by energy restructuring 能源结构调整影响有限– Carbon sinks are not enough to offset the increase of sources 碳汇的改进不足于达到减排的要求

Comparison with int. large cities

Item 指标 New York 纽约(2008)

London伦敦(2006)

Tokyo东京(2003)

Shanghai上海(2007)

Emission amount, MtCO2 52.17 44.00 70.44 184.89Agriculture 农业 -- -- -- 0.7%

Heavy industry 大工业 8.1% 7.0% 9.2% 65.6%Construction建筑用能商业和公共部门 29.7% 33.0% 35.4% 13.20%

民用住宅 39.7% 38.0% 25.3% 8.70%Surface transport. 地面交通 22.4% 22.0% 30.1% 11.8%

Area 面积， km2 790 1572 2187.09 6340.5Population million 常住人口 8.30 7.5124 12.3882 18.5808

单位面积碳排放量，10000 tCO2/km2 6.60 2.80 3.22 2.92

Emission per capita ， tCO2 6.29 5.86 5.69 9.95

Observation• Low carbon strategies

– Low carbon energy: wind, solar, geothermal, tide, and nuclear; – Reduction of the scale of traditional industries;– Industrial structure optimization: reducing high-carbon industries,

adding low carbon and carbon capturing industries– Reducing energy consumption per unit production;– Promote the development of CCS technologies.

• Questions – Definition of “Low Carbon”?– “Low Carbon” or “Lower Carbon”?– Challenges in population growth and economic development;

• Difficulties– Primary results of a comprehensive study reveals that the

40~45% reduction in relative emission may be reached, but it is very difficult to reach the IPCC target for per capita emission reduction, even CCS is included.

China carbon emission per capita increases quickly, close to the global average中国人均排放量迅速增加，接近世界平均水平

• China’s carbon emission is huge in the sense of annual total amount, but compare with developed countries: 在年排放总量的意义上，中国碳排放严重，但和发达国家比较：– Accumulated total emission amount is still small; 累积排放总量小– Per capita average emission is low; 人均碳排放量小– Accumulated per capita emission is also low 累积人均碳排放量也小

• but, both annual emission and per capita emissions increase quickly; 但年排放量和人均排放量在迅速增加

• As a responsible nation, China is making efforts and committed 40~45% emission reduction before 2020; 作为一个负责任的国家，中国已经承诺在 2020 年前，见效碳排放强度 40~45%

• Other measures…

China should also take serious actions中国应当认真采取行动• Developed countries are responsible for quantified GHG

emission reduction. China should also take actions. Before the Copenhagen Accord, China committed to reduce carbon emission intensity 40~45% by 2020 relative to 2005.

• 日本、美国、欧盟等发达国家和地区应当制定中长期绝对减排目标。去年哥本哈根会议前夕，我国提出了“争取到2020 年单位国内生产总值 CO2 排放比 2005 年下降40%~45%” 的自愿减排目标。

IESD research

• Both carbon sources and sinks are included

Dec. 12, 2007Nov, 2009

Current Situation

Energy related carbon emissions

Production 能源生产煤炭、石油、天然气开采Transit 能源加工与转换发电、炼油、炼焦、煤制气、煤炭洗选、型煤加工Consumption 能源消费农业、工业、交通、建筑、商业、民用

Atmosphere and Terrestrial Ecosystem大气层和陆相生态系统

Human Society 人类社会

Production 生产活动

Fossil Fuel 化石燃料 Cement 水泥Living/Aspiration生活 / 呼吸

Soil Storage/Evaporation土壤储存 / 呼吸

Plants Storage/Aspiration植物储存 / 呼吸

Natural System 自然系统

Carbon cycle in terrestrial system:

Analysis Method 分析方法To find carbon emission amount: 计算碳排放量 CO2 emission = emission factor fossil fuel CO2 排放量 = 排放因子化石燃料消费量 Emission factors: IPCC emission factor, 2006 可采用 IPCC 推荐的排放因子 (2006)

To analyze driving factors: 分析碳排放驱动力KATA Identity F = P (GDP/P) (E/GDP) (F/E) CO2 排放量 = 人口经济发展 g 能源强度 e 碳强度f CO2 排放量 = 人口人均收入工业结构和技术能源结构To compare contributions of the driving factors 比较各驱动力的影响程度Laspeyres decomposition F = (F)due to P + (F)due to g + (F)due to e + (F)due to f

Σsectors Σfuels And/or LMDI (Logarithmic mean divisia index)

Shanghai statistical data• Population data 人口数据 • GDP 国内生产总值• GDP per capita 人均 GDP• Energy consumption 能耗数据• Energy intensity 单位 GDP 能耗• Energy consumption per capita 人均能耗• Industry production 工业产品数据• Industry/transportation/energy 工业交通能源数据• Statistical data from: 2008 Annual Book of Shanghai Industry, energy and

transportation

Electric/thermal carbon emission calculation

1. Collect fuel data for various electricity/heat production;2. Determine CO2 emission factors of different fuels;3. Calculate CO2 emissions from various sectors and sum

up the results;4. Calculate mean electric/thermal CO2 emission factor

Electric/thermal carbon emission calculation

1. Energy production and transform: electricity, heat, coke, oil refinery, and gas production

2. Transmit/distribution:Raw coal, town gas, natural gas, oil, heat, electricity

3. End-use: agriculture, industry (including construction), commercial/public building, residential building, transportation, ship/air, industrial process

类型热力碳排放因子，

tCO2/ 万吨标准煤热力当量

热力当量，万吨标准煤 CO2 排放量 , tCO2

回收热力 0 8.70 0生产的热力 32638.81 222.43 7259893.84

热力生产过程中 CO2 排放总量， tCO2 7259893.84

终端部门接受到的热力总量，万吨标准煤 221.28

上海平均热力碳排放因子， tCO2/ 万吨标准煤热力当量 32808.21

Shanghai mean thermal carbon emission factor上海平均热力碳排放因子计算表 ( 考虑了输配损失 )

类型电力碳排放因子，tCO2/ 亿 kwh

电量 , 亿 kwh CO2 排放量， tCO2上海本地火力发电 83964.38 733.35 61575279.42市外来电 84521.69 339.03 28655387.19电力碳排放总量 , tCO2 90230666.61终端部门接收到的电力总量 , 万吨标准煤电力当量 1249.03 上海平均电力碳排放因子， tCO2/ 万吨标准煤 72240.44

Shanghai mean electric carbon emission factor上海平均电力碳排放因子计算表 ( 考虑了输配损失 )

Scenario design and projection情景设计和预测

Key factors that influence carbon emission

Key factors – Population 人口– Economic development 经济增长– Industrial structure 产业结构– Technology 技术进步– Energy structure 能源结构– Living standard 生活水平– Policy (e.g. carbon tax) 政策 ?

Scenario analysis procedure

Scenario Design

Key influencing factors

Macro Social factors

Energy appl Tech / CCS

Energy/Industry Policies

Sectoral activity levels

Sectoral energy intensity

Energy re-structuring

Electricity/heat supply

CCS tech and utilization

End

-use

S

ecto

r E

nerg

y de

man

d

Ene

rgy

sup

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s

Emission factors

Calculation

Quantify factors

RESULTS

Scenario Calculation

CO2 emission projection LEAP modeling

• Covering all energy production/transit and end-use sectors

• Including all kinds of fuels and secondary energies • The base year is 2007, calculation for 2020, 2030,

2040, and 2050 。

Structure/flow chart of Shanghai LEAP model calculation

Scenario design• Population and economic growth: based upon historical data and

available analysis,– High development (H)– Low development (L)

• Industrial and energy structures– Energy Efficiency (EE), industrial restructuring only, energy structure

keeps the same– Energy Restructure (ER) , industrial restructuring, alternative energies

are considered, with advanced technology and some CCS;– Low Carbon (EC) , industrial restructuring, stronger alternative energy

and renewable energy, and more CCS• Six scenarios are considered: HEE, HER, HEC, LEE, LER, and LEC.

YearLow increment High increment

Population (million) Rate(‰) Population

(million) Rate (‰)

2007 18.5808 -- 18.5808 --2020 21.7463 2007-2020: 1.22‰ 24.0362 2007-2020: 2‰2030 24.0758 2020-2030: 1.02‰ 28.7306 2020-2030: 1.8‰2040 25.8769 2030-2040: 0.72‰ 33.3430 2030-2040: 1.5‰2050 27.3848 2040-2050: 0.57‰ 36.8314 2040-2050: 1‰

Population

YearLow development High development

GDP per capita, RMBGDP, TRMB Rate GDP, TRMB Rate

2007 1218.885 -- 1218.885 -- 66367

2020 3807.035 2007-2020: 9.2% 4207.922 2007-2020: 10% 175066

2030 7267.573 2020-2030: 6.7% 8672.659 2020-2030: 7.5% 301862

2040 12053.632 2030-2040: 5.2% 15531.412 2030-2040: 6% 465807

2050 17933.519 2040-2050: 4.1% 24119.808 2040-2050: 4.5% 654870

Economic development

Examples of parameter setting

Scenario Sector 2007 2020 2030 2040 2050

H

Agriculture 1.02 2.52 4.34 6.21 7.2359 Industry 52.98 113.63 174.23 237.44 258.83

Construction 3.80 18.50 38.25 66.97 95.73 Operating Transport 7.23 27.78 52.95 81.63 102.51

Other service 56.85 258.35 597.50 1160.88 1947.67

L

Agriculture 1.02 2.28 3.63 4.82 5.38 Industry 52.98 102.81 146.01 184.28 192.44

Construction 3.80 16.74 32.05 51.98 71.18 Operating Transport 7.23 25.14 44.37 63.35 76.22

Other service 56.86 233.74 500.70 900.94 1448.13

End-industry added values (million RMB)

Sector 2007 2020 2030 2040 2050Primary (Agriculture) 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3Secondary 46.6 31.4 24.5 19.6 14.7 Industry 93.3 86 82 78 73

Construction 6.7 14 18 22 27

Tertiary 52.6 68 75 80 85 Operation transport 11.3 9.7 8.1 6.6 5

Other services 88.7 90.3 91.9 93.4 95

Industry structure (%)Examples of parameter setting

Renewable energy capacity 1000 kW

Year Wind Solar Biomass2007 24.4 0.195 --

2010 334.4 10 20

2020 1870 160 126

Examples of parameter setting

Scenario design 情景设置与定义Scenario Activity Energy

intensity Carbon intensity

CCS considered

Energy structure reform in sectors

Energy structure

Carbon intensity

Carbon emission reduction reference target

Target 目标 Type

Amount总量

Over the peak and let 2050 emission lower than 2007 跨越碳排放总量高峰，并使2050 年的碳排放量低于 2007 年的排放水平

L 低目标Reducing 50% based on 2007, and less accumulation. 2050 年碳排放量在 2007 年的基础上至少减排 50%； 2006 年 -2050年累计碳排放量小于 5337 Mt CO2

H 高目标Intensity强度 Intensity reducing by 45% in 2020, 2020 年

碳排放强度下降率高于 45%L 低目标

Per capital人均

Over the peak, and smaller than that of 2007. 跨越人均碳排放量高峰，并使 2050年的人均碳排放量低于 2007 年的排放水平

L 低目标Targeting at 2t per capita; 2050 年人均CO2 排放量将至 2t CO2/ 人 H 高目标

Result 计算结果 (2007)

General situation 总体情况• Excluding ship/air, the 2007 emission reached

184.89MtCO2 , with 9.95t per capita (or 2.71 tC)

2007 年上海市能源碳排放量达到了 18489 万 tCO2( 不包括水运、航运 ) ，人均碳排放量为 9.95tCO2 or 2.71 tC 。• With ship/air, 21.467 MtCO2, and 11.55 tCO2 per

capita, 13.87% by ship/air 加上水运和航运，则达到 21467 万 tCO2 ，人均碳排放量为 11.55 tCO2 ，水运和航运占 13.87% 。

End-use energy demand

Low

High

H-Scenario sectoral energy demand increment (relative to 2007)

Private transportation and building energy demand increases quickly

Private transportation

Residential building

Commercial/public buildings

Agriculture

construction

IndustryCommercial transport

Sectoral energy demand ratio

Private transportation

Residential buildings

Commercial / public buildings

Commercial transportation

IndustryConstruction

Agriculture

Total CO2 emission

Population, GDP rate, energy structure, and CCS are the influencing factors

H-EE

H-ER

H-LC

L-EE

L-ER

L-LC

• Reduction in energy intensity

The 2020 target of 45% reduction in carbon emission strength can be reached

Emission per capita

Target: 2t CO2

It does not seem to attain the strict target, 2t CO2 per person

Total emission amount in different scenarios

Scenario Turning point

Peak value 2007 2050 Increment or

reduction (to 2007)H-EE NA NA 214.68 502.34 134.00%H-ER 2030 339.99 214.68 359.89 67.64%H-LC 2030 323.71 214.68 264.85 23.37%L-EE 2030 330.43 214.68 373.50 73.98%L-ER 2030 307.05 214.68 268.50 25.07%L-LC 2030 293.04 214.68 197.11 - 8.18%

MtCO2

Accumulated emission

The accumulated emission of all scenarios exceeds the target 5337 Mt CO2. Even the lowest scenario (L-LC) is 1.1 more than the target.

Target ： 5337 Mt CO2

Sectoral CO2 emissions in 2007

In industry, heavy industry:

97.3%

Industry

Surf. transpSurf. transp

Ship/Air AgricultureAgriculture

Industry

buildingsbuildingsIn “buildings” Commercial/ public 60.2%

Within transportation: Non-Public Transportation:

pub. transp Non-pub.

Some of the results

Energy structure

Shanghai end-use energy structure in 2007

Without ship/air

With ship/air

Electricity Electricity

Coal

Coal

OilOil Town

gasTown gas

Natural gas

Natural gas

Heat

Heat

Comparison with international large cities

Item 指标 New York 纽约(2008)

London伦敦(2006)

Tokyo东京(2003)

Shanghai上海(2007)

Emission amount, MtCO2 52.17 44.00 70.44 184.89Agriculture 农业 -- -- -- 0.7%

Heavy industry 大工业 8.1% 7.0% 9.2% 65.6%Construction建筑用能商业和公共部门 29.7% 33.0% 35.4% 13.20%

民用住宅 39.7% 38.0% 25.3% 8.70%Surface transport. 地面交通 22.4% 22.0% 30.1% 11.8%

Area 面积， km2 790 1572 2187.09 6340.5Population million 常住人口 8.30 7.5124 12.3882 18.5808

单位面积碳排放量，10000 tCO2/km2 6.60 2.80 3.22 2.92

Emission per capita ， tCO2 6.29 5.86 5.69 9.95

Summary• China looks at climate change seriously. Actions are

taken for adaptation and mitigation. However,• The burden is heavy, the road is long:

– Population growth and urbanization;– Economic growth;– Improve energy structure;– Phase out backward production capacities, and optimize

industrial structure;– Develop alternative and renewable energies;– Promote forestation for more carbon sinks; – Rooms of emission reduction in building service, living

behavior, and transportation choices;– International cooperation should be needed.

Conclusion

• Many difficulties and opportunities• Population control• Living standard• Economy restructuring• Low carbon development• Alternative and renewable energies• Ecological civilization• Sustainable development

• Cut your coat according to your cloth?

• It is important to always balance your budget?

• Make both ends meet?• Pay as you go?

“ 量入为出” : Liang2 Ru4 Wei3 Chu1

the Chinese consuming ethics

Excessive consuming mode?

Climate Change and Response

Documents

Transcript of Climate Change and Response