CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: Some key issues
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Transcript of CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: Some key issues
CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: SOME KEY
ISSUESby
Graeme HugoARC Australian Professorial Fellow, Professor of Geography and Director of the
Australian Population and Migration Research Centre,The University of Adelaide
Presentation to the Hamburg Conference: Actions for Climate Induced Migration, Climate Service Center and the KlimaCampus at University of Hamburg
16-18 July 2013
Outline of Presentation • Introduction• The Asia-Pacific Context• The Relationship Between
Environmental Change and Migration
• Anticipated Hot Spots• Mobility Responses• Policy Issues• Conclusion
ESCAP Region1: Major Demographic Changes, 1970-2011Source: UNESCAP, 1984, 2011
Demographic Variable 1970 2011 Percent Change
1970-2011
Total Population (m) 2,041 3,998 +95.9
Percent of World Population 55.2 57.2 +3.6
Annual Growth Rate3 2.2 0.9 -59.1
Percent Urban3 24 43 +79.2
Percent Aged 0-143 40 25 -37.5
Percent Aged 65+3 4 7 +75.0
Dependency Ratio3 80 47 -41.3
Total Fertility Rate2,3 5.4 2.1 -99.6
Expectancy of Life at Birth – Males3
52 68 +30.8
Expectancy of Life at Birth – Females3
54 72 +33.3
1 The data exclude the countries of Central Asia which were not part of the ESCAP region in 1970 and 1980.
2 TFR and Life Expectancies refer to the average of the five years prior to 1970. 3 Includes Central Asia in 2011.
The Asian-Pacific ContextAsia-Pacific: Population, 2012
Source: Population Reference Bureau 2012
World output sharesSource: Australian Government 2012
Share of world output growthSource: Australian Government 2012
Key Changes• Rapid Economic growth• Social change – role of women, education• Demographic change• Urbanisation• Increased international interaction –
regional organisation• Increased personal mobility
Number of Chinese Travelling Abroad for Business and Tourism 1981-2003 and Total Number of Outbound Trips from China, 1997-2010
Source: Far Eastern Economic Review, 24 June 2004, 30; Asia Times Online, 9 February 2006; Li and Fung Research Centre, 2010; Yu, 2010; Chao, 2011
World International Migrant Stock in Thousands, 2010Source: United Nations 2009
Migrant Stocks by Country of Origin, 2010Source: World Bank Bilateral Migration Matrix
Total Refugees and People in Refugee like Situations by Country of Asylum, End 2011
Source: UNHCR 2012
Remittances Received (US$m), 2012Source: World Bank Remittances database, November 2012
The number of international migrants: absolute change and percentage change between 2000 and 2013, by region
Source: United Nations 2013
-202468
10121416
Mic
rone
sia
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Eur
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Cen
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Car
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Afri
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Wes
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Eur
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Mel
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frica
Pol
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Mid
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Afri
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Milli
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140Absolute change % change
Internal Migration• Much greater than international migration• Mobility is now within the calculus of
choice of all Asian migrants• Massively increased circular mobility• Urbanisation key factor
Indonesia: Number of Persons per Motor Vehicle, 1950-2009
Source: Biro Pusat Statistik publications on Motor Vehicles and Length of Roads
Year Persons/Motor Vehicle
(including Motor Cycles)
Persons/Motor Vehicle
(excluding Motor Cycles)
1950 1,507 1,691
1961 263 447
1971 129 300
1980 38 123
1990 20 64
2000 11 39
2005 6 23
2009 3 18
Asia: Urban and Rural Population 1950 to 2030Source: United Nations World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision
1950
1955
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1965
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2010
2015
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500,000
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2,500,000
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Rural Urban % Urban
Year
Num
ber '
000
% U
rban
A huge population redistribution has already occurred in Asia
1950 2005 2050Number urban (m) 230 1,480 3,000Number rural (m) 1,122 2,259 1,745
* A significant change in population distribution has occurred in the last 40 years. Why not just as large a change in the next 40 years?
World cumulative humanitarian risk hotspots for climate-related hazards - floods, cyclones and drought
Source: CARE International 2009, p.26
Asia: Population Affected by Natural Disasters, 1976 to 2011
Source: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) International Disaster Database, http://www.emdat.be/, accessed 3rd February 2012
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
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Population and Climate Change HotspotsSource: www.populationaction.org/Publications
Major Climate Change Hazards
• The Asia and Pacific regions have been identified as some of the global regions most at risk of experiencing natural disasters – major areas of climate change impact
• Strong correlation between countries most at risk of experiencing environmental hazards and those at greatest risk from climate change
• Main climate change impact areas…- coastal vulnerability, inundation, storm surges, deltas, coastal plains- cyclones and typhoons- riparian flooding, impact of glacier melt- water stress- atolls, low lying islands
Southern and Eastern Asia: Estimated Population Density Within a 5m Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), 2010
Southeast Asia: Location of Hot Spot Areas Likely to be Most Impacted by Coastal Flooding Associated with Sea Level Rise, Riparian Flooding,
Cyclones/Typhoons and Water Stress as a Result of Climate ChangeSource: Yusuf and Francisco, 2009, 6
Tuvalu: Estimated Population Density Within a 5m Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), 2010
Projecting Impacts of Climate Change on Migration
• Too many uncertainties to project numbers of migrants
• Can project populations in hot spots
Indicative Population Projections
• To underline the urgency of the need for development of appropriate institutions and mechanisms to cope with the impact of climate change.
• To give an indication of the areas that are most likely to be impacted by climate change induced mobility in order to target intervention strategies.
Southeast Asia: Population in Hot Spot Areas at High Risk of Climate Change Impacts, 2000
Country
Total
Population
2000
(’000)
Percent of National Population at Risk of:
Coastal
Flooding Cyclones
Riparian
Flooding Water Stress
Brunei 317 - - - -
Cambodia 13,145 18.0 1.0 100.0 -
East Timor 739 - - - -
Indonesia 212,060 25.9 - - 68.2
Lao PDR 5,275 - 64.2 - -
Malaysia 22,334 29.3 - - -
Myanmar 47,833 34.1 9.4 32.7 48.9
Philippines 75,652 39.3 100.0 7.7 -
Singapore 3,923 - - - -
Thailand 62,770 21.3 9.1 - 65.3
Vietnam 78,114 67.8 60.5 100.0 -
Total (number ’000) 522,163 176,196 136,627 112,751 204,048
0-4 yrs.5-9 yrs.
10-14 yrs.15-19 yrs.20-24 yrs25-29 yrs30-34 yrs.35-39 yrs.40-44 yrs.45-49 yrs.50-54 yrs.55-59 yrs.60-64 yrs.65-69 yrs.70-74 yrs.75-79 yrs.80-84 yrs.85-89 yrs.90-94 yrs.95-99 yrs.100+ yrs.
-0.05 -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05
Age-Sex Structure 2006, Hotspot Areas Females(%)
Males(%)
Projected Total Megacity Populations at Risk Allowing for Sea Level Rises of 1 and 5 Metres (’000), 2000
Total 2000 Population
Sea Level Rise 1m 5m Bangkok 9,667,300 193,606 4,077,760 Ho Chi Minh City 5,545,760 630,135 3,405,010 Jakarta 19,682,700 713,960 1,755,040 Manila 14,071,900 36,841 398,650 Singapore 3,327,740 0 0
Nations with the Highest Numbers and Proportions of Their Urban Population within the Low Elevation Coastal Zone – The Continuous Area Along the Coast That Is Less Than 10 Metres Above Sea Level
Source: McGranahan et al., 2008
Numbers
Proportions
Migration Policy Responses• Most response will be in-situ• Must also realise some groups will not be
able to adapt at all• Overwhelmingly internal migration is
involved• Migration responses are of two types
– Adaptation– Displacement
Migration as Adaptation
• Strong tradition of mobility as a “coping mechanism” during drought, disasters
• Several forms– Sending of some family members to other locations– Temporary displacement (in acute disasters)– Circular migration/commuting– “Calling in” remittance obligations which remain
dormant in normal times• More available to better off sections of community
Migration as Displacement• Last resort• Often involves poorest because they have no
access to adaptation options• Much experience of forced displacement in Asia
- Land resettlement Transmigrasi- Disaster Temporary and Permanent Displacement- Mega projects (Three Dams)
Linear Vs Non Linear Impacts of Climate Change on Migration
1. significantly increase the numbers of people
migrating using established patterns both internally and externally in a linear manner, primarily via voluntary mechanisms; and
2.non-linear changes involves creating new migration flows that result as thresholds of resilience or tipping points being reached. May be spontaneous or involve policy intervention.
Key Issues
• Needs to be considered in context of existing migration, not separately
• Can influence migration through impact at both origin and destination
• Crucial role of migration networks• Inter-relationship with poverty – poor least
able to use migration as adaptation more likely to be forcibly displaced
Key Policy Issues• Most of mobility adjustments will be internal• Key international dimensions
- funding of internal adjustments- role of international migration as an adaptation mechanism- role of international migration in resettlement
• Necessary for setting up an international fund on “polluter pays” principles to fund adaptation and resettlement
• Should there be a dedicated fund for migration adaptation–resettlement or should it be a fund for all adaptation?
Key Migration Policy Issues –Migration and Adaptation
• Build on role of migration as a facilitator of development and building resilience in origin areas.
• Focus on high risk areas in encouraging internal and international migration.
• Policy to facilitate and enhance existing flows and in some cases help create new flows.
• Need to involve poorest groups in them.
(cont.)
• Introduction of best practice into temporary labour migration
• Improving governance.• Need for more ‘development friendly’ approach
in destination countries (e.g. RSE in New Zealand).
• Based on recognition of the reality of the effects of ageing and low fertility in high income nations
• National Spatial Development Policy – encouraging development away from hot spots over the next five decades.
Resettlement of Entire Communities:A Last Resort
• Focus of attention – resettlement on both a temporary and permanent basis will need to be planned for.
• Need to mesh responses with existing disaster management systems (Hyogo Framework for Action).
• Some permanent displacement will be necessary, most within countries.
• Need to build on huge body of existing knowledge on planned resettlement of displaced populations.
Barriers to Establishing a New International Regime to Protect
Climate Change Migrants• Difficulty of separating climate change from
other drivers of migration.• Reluctance of potential destination
countries to accept a new category of asylum seeker
• Lack of existing international cooperation on migration in Asia and the Pacific.
• Short term vs long term goals.
Advantages to Accommodating Climate Change Migration Within Existing Structures
• The option is immediately available to climate change forced migrants.
• It overcomes the manifest suspicion of destination country governments and societies existing, let alone expanded, ‘asylum’ categories of immigration.
• It obviates any need to set up new institutions, structures and mechanisms.
• There are for many nations a plethora of different categories of migration which provides a range of ways in which climate change displaces could be accommodated.
• The system would utilise existing migration networks where they exist to facilitate migration and to assist settlement at the destination.
Need for Integration with Migration and Development Initiatives
• Siloization of 2 key migration discourses• Need to go beyond migration as a “coping
mechanism”• Migration can facilitate development and
poverty reduction if carefully planned• Need to integrate with development
initiatives
Recommendations
1. Consciousness Raising, Climate Change Adaptation Plans
2. Need for an Improved Empirical Basis- Data Collection on Migration- Targeted Case Studies
3. Capacity Building and Improvement in Governance in Migration
4. Enhanced Regional and International Cooperation5. Develop Best Practice in Migration6. Effective Mechanisms for Funding Migration Responses7. Integrate with Disaster Management8. Enhancing Resistance in Communities