Climate Change and Jamaica's Agricultural Sector

Climate Change and Jamaica’s Agricultural Sector:

A Situation Analysis

Presented By: Richard Harrison, PhD

Chairman, National Board, RADA

Introduction

It is now generally accepted that climate change is a reality and that the impacts are already being observed in Jamaica.

The very noticeable change from what it was some three or so- decades-ago is also now recognized by our local farmers, many of whom express their opinion in not so sophisticated terms.

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Characterization of the Sector3

Characterization of the Sector

The structure of the Jamaican agricultural landscape is typical of most small island states.

The sector is dominated by small and medium size farmers with 5 hectares of land or less and account for 85 % of the total agricultural holdings.

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Small farmers typically cultivate marginal hillside lands and produce the bulk of domestic food crops under rain fed conditions.

Their dependence on rainfall and their subsistence production levels render them highly vulnerable to climate change.

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Large farmers account for only 15% of total agricultural holdings. These farmers typically are engaged in:

Monocropping and export oriented Livestock Production Systems

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An analysis of the agricultural land use indicate that approximately 60% of farm land is located on the south western half of the island.

This area can be characterized as semi-arid and agricultural production is largely rainfall dependent

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Socio Economic Importance of the Sector

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The Jamaican agricultural sector has both social and economic benefits to the Jamaican economy and the general well-being of the country.

It is important in rural development, generation of income and therefore rural stability and the maintenance of the environment and biodiversity

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From an economic standpoint, the percentage contribution of the sector to total real GDP between 2009 to 2013 amounted to 6.0, 6.6, 6.6, 6.8, and 6.7 respectively.

(Source: Economic & Social Surveys of Jamaica)

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The sector is a significant employer of labour, absorbing 20% of the country’s labour force, according to a recent study done by the FAO and the IDB in 2013.

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It is also significant to note that much of this labour is employed in the rural areas, thereby providing an extremely important employment opportunity for otherwise unemployed members of the workforce.

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Opportunities for gainful employment in the rural areas is extremely limited, therefore the sector is critical in maintaining stability in rural communities.

Many rural communities exist because of the presence of agricultural enterprises which continue to be the economic lifeline of these areas

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Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector

Agriculture is considered as one of the most vulnerable sectors of climate change effects and the rural farming communities amongst the most affected (Trotz & Lindo, 2013).

Many studies on climate change impacts have been done over the last decade and include a IDB/FAO study on Climate Change and Agriculture in Jamaica in 2013.

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These changes have been observed in:

Wide variability in the rainfall pattern resulting in

extended and more frequent drought periods and

less predictable rainfall periods with higher

intensities over shorter periods.

Increasing frequency of hurricanes and storms.

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Saline intrusion into some of the aquifers on the

southern plains.

Higher mean temperatures.

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The IDB/FAO report stated that loss to the sector due to climate change events between 1994 and 2010 is estimated at J$14.4 billion.

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The drought of 2014 was considered the worst on the record for decades and estimated losses of US$953M.

The current drought of 2015 has already resulted in losses estimated at hundreds of millions of dollars principally as a result of the bush fires destroying crops and reduced crop yields.

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The country has experienced drought every year from 2004-2010 with the exception being 2006.

The 2013 report also stated that mean temperatures have increased by about 0.6 0C since 1960, an average of 0.140C per decade and is expected to increase by another 0.470C by 2030.

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One of the most devastating manifestations of climate change in Jamaica is the increasing frequently of hurricanes and storms. Between 2000 to 2010, Jamaica has been impacted by 14 hurricanes and 16 tropical storms.

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These climate change events impacts agriculture in many ways:

Reduced crop yield from low rainfall. Extended droughts also result in reduced cropping

seasons, hence lower availability of food.

Increased irrigation water costs in areas where this is present.

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Damage to agricultural infrastructure from flash floods and hurricanes.

Increasing salinization of aquifers due to increased abstraction and salt water intrusion.

Increasing incidence of pest and diseases e.g. Beet army worm infestation of scallion in St. Elizabeth believed to be climate related.

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Implications for Food Security

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Food security not only refers to availability but also affordability.

The weather events over the last two decades have resulted not only in the loss of actual production itself have also caused temporary and prolonged disruption of production capabilities.

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The case of the devastation of the banana industry from hurricanes has been well documented.

One subsector not well highlighted and discussed is the fishing industry which sustained losses in equipment as a result of hurricanes.

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Considerable investment is then required to replace damaged equipment and production time is lossed.

Food security issues also come to the fore as local production becomes less predictable and more erratic in response to the uncertainty in the rainfall for rain fed production.

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This uncertainty of production creates problems in planning and scheduling of food supplies as relatively accurate production forecasts cannot be made.

Consequently, availability during periods of scarcity becomes an issue and importation of food to close the gap is usually pursued.

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Climate Change and Jamaica's Agricultural Sector

Environment

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