Climate Change and H d liti i th

Climate Change and H d liti i thHydropolitics in the

Indus BasinHydropolitics in the

Indus Basindus asdus as

Daanish MustafaDepartment of Geography

Daanish MustafaDepartment of Geography

King’s College, Londondaanish.mustafa@kcl.ac.uk

King’s College, Londondaanish.mustafa@kcl.ac.uk

Four Conceptual Approaches to Four Conceptual Approaches to p ppClimate Change (Wescoat 1991)

p ppClimate Change (Wescoat 1991)

• Climate scenario assessment• Climate scenario assessment• Climate scenario assessment• Critical water management problems• Climate scenario assessment• Critical water management problems• Historical antecedents and analogies• Religious/ethical political• Historical antecedents and analogies• Religious/ethical political• Religious/ethical political

reconstruction• Religious/ethical political

reconstruction

Wide Angle ViewsWide Angle ViewsWide Angle ViewsWide Angle Views• Efficiency• Efficiencyy

– hydraulic– economic

y– hydraulic– economic– social– ecological– social– ecologicalecological

• Multiple values of waterEq it s Efficienc

ecological• Multiple values of water

Eq it s Efficienc• Equity vs. Efficiency• Modernity vs. cultural knowledge• Equity vs. Efficiency• Modernity vs. cultural knowledge

Milestones in the Development of Milestones in the Development of the Indus Water Systemthe Indus Water System

• 1860s opening of the Sidhnai Colonies as the • 1860s opening of the Sidhnai Colonies as the p gbeginning of the Indus irrigation system.

• Sindh/Punjab Indus water conflict (1945)

p gbeginning of the Indus irrigation system.

• Sindh/Punjab Indus water conflict (1945)• Partition of Indian Sub-Continent (1947)• Indus Water Treaty (1960)• Partition of Indian Sub-Continent (1947)• Indus Water Treaty (1960)• Completion of Indus water projects (1976)• Sikh insurgency in Indian Punjab (1980s)

I i i l d i P ki

• Completion of Indus water projects (1976)• Sikh insurgency in Indian Punjab (1980s)

I i i l d i P ki• Inter-provincial water accord in Pakistan (1991)

• Kalabagh dam controversy in Pakistan

• Inter-provincial water accord in Pakistan (1991)

• Kalabagh dam controversy in Pakistan• Kalabagh dam controversy in Pakistan (1990s)

• Kalabagh dam controversy in Pakistan (1990s)

Hydro(geo)politics in the Genus of Hydro(geo)politics in the Genus of the Indus Water System (Gilmartin

1994)the Indus Water System (Gilmartin

1994)))• Consolidation of govt. control in the aftermath

of the Sikh wars.E t bli h i it f t i t th

• Consolidation of govt. control in the aftermath of the Sikh wars.E t bli h i it f t i t th• Establish superiority of western science to the indigenous population thereby discouraging them from posing a threat to the empire.

• Establish superiority of western science to the indigenous population thereby discouraging them from posing a threat to the empire.them from posing a threat to the empire.

• Create and develop new social elites.• Increase food production for famine

them from posing a threat to the empire.• Create and develop new social elites.• Increase food production for famine p

prevention.• Increase tax revenues.

pprevention.

• Increase tax revenues.

Largest Contiguous Surface I i ti S t i th W ldLargest Contiguous Surface

I i ti S t i th W ldIrrigation System in the WorldIrrigation System in the World

Pakistan: The gift of the IndusPakistan: The gift of the Indus

A Gravity based systemA Gravity based system

Poor Conveyance EfficiencyPoor Conveyance Efficiency

Poor EquityPoor Equity

Irrigation and Flood HazardIrrigation and Flood Hazard

Indus Water Treaty a product ofIndus Water Treaty a product ofIndus Water Treaty a product of its Times

Indus Water Treaty a product of its Times

• Massive financial incentive on part of the international and bilateral donors in the cold war context

• Massive financial incentive on part of the international and bilateral donors in the cold war contextwar context

• Predicated upon a unidimensional view of water (national resource)

war context• Predicated upon a unidimensional view of

water (national resource)water (national resource)• No concern for

– Environmental quality/hazards

water (national resource)• No concern for

– Environmental quality/hazardsy– sub-national equity– multiple values of water

Shift f l l & i i l t ti l l

y– sub-national equity– multiple values of water

Shift f l l & i i l t ti l l• Shift from local & provincial to national scale water management.

• Shift from local & provincial to national scale water management.

Consequences of Indus Basin Consequences of Indus Basin Development (1960-75)Development (1960-75)

I f t t d l tI f t t d l t• Infrastructure development• Rivers as closed units with known

t f t

• Infrastructure development• Rivers as closed units with known

t f tamounts of water• Inter-provincial water accord in

P ki t

amounts of water• Inter-provincial water accord in

P ki tPakistan.• Little attention to canal and water

l l i iti

Pakistan.• Little attention to canal and water

l l i iticourse level inequities• Environmental disaster for the three

t i d th d lt

course level inequities• Environmental disaster for the three

t i d th d lteastern rivers and the delta.eastern rivers and the delta.

Challenges of Climate ChangeChallenges of Climate ChangeChallenges of Climate ChangeChallenges of Climate Change

• Increasing uncertainty (move beyond glaciers)• Increasing uncertainty (move beyond glaciers)g y ( y g )• Worsening inequity• Coping strategies

g y ( y g )• Worsening inequity• Coping strategiesp g g

– Storage (surface, ground and cryosphere)– Adaptive management

lti l l f t

p g g– Storage (surface, ground and cryosphere)– Adaptive management

lti l l f t– multiple values of water– multiple views on efficiency

• Greater need for regional cooperation

– multiple values of water– multiple views on efficiency

• Greater need for regional cooperationGreater need for regional cooperation• How does one broaden the perspectives on

water?

Greater need for regional cooperation• How does one broaden the perspectives on

water?

To Meet the ChallengesTo Meet the ChallengesTo Meet the ChallengesTo Meet the Challenges

• Imagination more than rationality?• Role for our cultural and spiritual • Imagination more than rationality?• Role for our cultural and spiritual

heritage?• Break the straightjacket of modernity?

heritage?• Break the straightjacket of modernity?Break the straightjacket of modernity?• Move from national to a ‘glocal’ or

‘reglocal’ scale of water management?

Break the straightjacket of modernity?• Move from national to a ‘glocal’ or

‘reglocal’ scale of water management?reglocal scale of water management?• Diversity of views from diversity of

stakeholders

reglocal scale of water management?• Diversity of views from diversity of

stakeholdersstakeholdersstakeholders