Climate change and global inequality
Transcript of Climate change and global inequality
![Page 1: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate change and global inequality
Marshall Burke!Department of Earth System Science Center on Food Security and the Environment Stanford University !!Reducing Inequality in a Sustainable World Conference Berkeley, Mar 5 2015 !![With thanks to co-authors Sol Hsiang and Ted Miguel (Berkeley)]
![Page 2: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Impact of climate change
![Page 3: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Impact of climate change
Main question: what are the costs of climate inaction?!‣for local and global economic output ‣for poverty and inequality
![Page 4: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Impact of climate change
Main question: what are the costs of climate inaction?!‣for local and global economic output ‣for poverty and inequality
What we need to know: 1. how much will the climate change (“business as usual”) 2. how will humans (+systems on which they depend) respond
![Page 5: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Impact of climate change
Main question: what are the costs of climate inaction?!‣for local and global economic output ‣for poverty and inequality
What we need to know: 1. how much will the climate change (“business as usual”) 2. how will humans (+systems on which they depend) respond
Climate science tells us #1.
![Page 6: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Impact of climate change
Main question: what are the costs of climate inaction?!‣for local and global economic output ‣for poverty and inequality
What we need to know: 1. how much will the climate change (“business as usual”) 2. how will humans (+systems on which they depend) respond
Climate science tells us #1.History gives us a clue about #2.
![Page 7: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The news from climate science…
IPCC AR5 2013
![Page 8: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
The news from recent historyHow do people respond to changes in climate?
![Page 9: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The news from recent history
PRODUCTIVITY OF CROPS
How do people respond to changes in climate?
![Page 10: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Plants don’t like it hot
US maize yields
Schlenker and Roberts 2009
![Page 11: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Plants don’t like it hot
US maize yields
Schlenker and Roberts 2009
African maize yields
Lobell et al 2011
![Page 12: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Plants don’t like it hot
US maize yields
Schlenker and Roberts 2009
Rule of thumb: -1% yield for every day spent above 30C
African maize yields
Lobell et al 2011
![Page 13: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
The news from recent history II
PRODUCTIVITY OF PEOPLE!PRODUCTIVITY OF CROPS
![Page 14: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
People don’t like it hot
Graff Zivin and Neidell 2014
Temperature and hours worked (US)
![Page 15: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
People don’t like it hot
Graff Zivin and Neidell 2014
Temperature and hours worked (US)
% p
rodu
ctio
n lo
ss
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
US India
Temperature and production
manufacturing (days > 32C)
manufacturing (days > 25C)
Cachon and Olivares 2012; Adhvaryu et al 2014
![Page 16: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
News from recent history III
PEACEFULNESS OF PEOPLE!PRODUCTIVITY OF PEOPLE!PRODUCTIVITY OF CROPS
![Page 17: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Hot under the collar?
BENVOLIO (TO MERCUTIO)
I pray thee, good Mercutio, let’s retire.The day is hot, the Capulets abroad,And if we meet we shall not ’scape a brawlFor now these hot days is the mad blood stirring. !
— Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet (then Tybalt kills Mercutio, Romeo kills Tybalt, etc..)
![Page 18: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Hsiang Burke Miguel 2013
![Page 19: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Hsiang Burke Miguel 2013
Re-analyzing ~25 studies, we find for 1 sd increase in temperature: • 10% increase in group conflict (e.g. civil war) • 2% increase in individual conflict (e.g. murder)
![Page 20: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
History speaks. “micro” evidence tells us that: !when it’s really hot: less food, less production, less peace
![Page 21: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
But at a global scale? !!
Past: Does “macro” reflect “micro”? Future: growth & inequality as climate changes?
History speaks. “micro” evidence tells us that: !when it’s really hot: less food, less production, less peace
![Page 22: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Assemble: 50 years of growth data for >150 countries !Ask: How do changes in temperature affect aggregate economic performance, past and future?
![Page 23: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
��
��
���
���
annu
al g
row
th in
GD
P/ca
p
annual avg. temperature ( C)
global distribution of temperature observations
global distribution of populationat each temperature
global distribution of GDPat each temperature
US
China
GermanyJapan India
Nigeria
IndonesiaBrazil
FranceUK
Burke Hsiang Miguel 2015
![Page 24: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Burke Hsiang Miguel 2015
−1 0 1ppt effect on growth rate
Effect of a +1C temperature increase on growth
![Page 25: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Now run the world forward:
2020 2060 2100Index
1
−80
−40
0
40
80Germany
2020 2060 2100Index
1
−80
−40
0
40
80US
2020 2060 2100
1
−80
−40
0
40
80China
2020 2060 2100
1
−80
−40
0
40
80Nigeria
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
−60
−40
−20
0
20
40
60
chan
ge in
glo
bal G
DP/
cap
(%)
Global
2100, with “business as usual” emissions (RCP8.5):
% c
hang
e in
GD
P/ca
pita
![Page 26: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Now run the world forward:
2020 2060 2100Index
1
−80
−40
0
40
80Germany
2020 2060 2100Index
1
−80
−40
0
40
80US
2020 2060 2100
1
−80
−40
0
40
80China
2020 2060 2100
1
−80
−40
0
40
80Nigeria
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
−60
−40
−20
0
20
40
60
chan
ge in
glo
bal G
DP/
cap
(%)
Global
2100, with “business as usual” emissions (RCP8.5):
% c
hang
e in
GD
P/ca
pita
![Page 27: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
The rich stay the same, poor get poorer
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
�
�
�
�
0
year
aver
age
chan
ge in
GD
P/ca
p (%
)Average effects by 2010 income quintile
richest 20% in 2010
poorest 20% in 2010
20th-40th pctile
60th-80th pctile
40th-60th pctile
![Page 28: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
What do we learn?
If we do nothing about climate change:!
‣ Likely that we will be substantially poorer on average
‣ Very likely that any negative impacts will disproportionately fall on poorest countries ‣ poor countries are already quite hot
![Page 29: Climate change and global inequality](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012023/6169d27e11a7b741a34bc025/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
What do we learn?
If we do nothing about climate change:!
‣ Likely that we will be substantially poorer on average
‣ Very likely that any negative impacts will disproportionately fall on poorest countries ‣ poor countries are already quite hot
Damages are potentially so large that emissions reductions are likely to be win-win:!
! global inequality reducing, sustainability promoting!