Climate change and Food Security in Latin America
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Cambio climatico y la seguridad alimentaria
Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Emmanuel Zapata, Peter Laderach
Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical, CIAT
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El Reto
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Concentraciones de gases de efecto
invernadero
Implicaciones a largo plazo en el clima, y aptitud
climática para producir cultivos
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Historical impacts on food security
% Yield impact for wheat
Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008.
Lobell et al (2011)
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“Rain has become very irregularly, this year we suffered drought followed by heavy rains during Broccoli season”Two small-farmers & brothers, Guatemala, Patzún, October, 2010
Objectives Perceptions
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Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
La adaptabilidad para los cultivos va cambiando
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In order to meet global demands, we
will need
60-70% more food
by 2050.
Seguridad alimentario en riesgo
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Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Maize Rice Wheat
Food Prices are Likely to Increase…%
pric
e in
crea
se 2
010-
2050
Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS
8ISPC Science Forum 2011
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Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c
Optimistic
Baselin
e
Pessimisti
c0
20
40
60
80
100
120 Economic effect Climate effect
% p
rice
incr
ease
201
0-20
50Climate Change Will Add Greatly to Price Increases…
Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS
Maize Rice Wheat9ISPC Science Forum 2011
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• Mitigacion refiere a la reduccion de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero– Colombia aporta 0.37% de emisiones globales– 35-40% proviene del sector agropecuario
• Adaptacion refiere a procesos que aumenta la capacidad de enfrentar los impactos de cambio climatico
Mitigacion y Adaptacion
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Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gasesexcluding land use change Mt CO2-eq
Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
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Modelos: Cómo saber qué pasará?
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Modelos GCM : “Global Climate Models”
• 21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basados en ciencias atmosféricas, química, física, biología
• Se corre desde el pasado hasta el futuro• Hay diferentes escenarios de emisiones de gases
INCERTIDUMBRE POLITICO (EMISIONES), Y INCERTIDUMBRE CIENTIFICO (MODELOS)
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Entonces, ¿qué es lo que dicen?
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Variabilidad y linea base
+
Clim
ate
Timescale
Short (change in baseline and variability) Long
Baseline
_
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Region DepartamentoCambio en
Precipitacion
Cambio en Temperatura
media
Cambio en estacionalidad de
precipitacion
Amazonas Amazonas 12 2.9 1.4 0 135Amazonas Caqueta 138 2.7 -1.3 0 193Amazonas Guania 55 2.9 -3.2 0 271Amazonas Guaviare 72 2.8 -2.9 -1 209Amazonas Putumayo 117 2.6 0.6 0 170Andina Antioquia 18 2.1 1.3 0 129Andina Boyaca 50 2.7 -3.9 -1 144Andina Cundinamarca 152 2.6 -2.6 0 170Andina Huila 51 2.4 1.0 0 144Andina Norte de santander 73 2.8 -0.4 0 216Andina Santander 51 2.7 -2.4 0 158Andina Tolima 86 2.4 -3.1 0 148Caribe Atlantico -74 2.2 -2.9 2 135Caribe Bolivar 90 2.5 -1.8 0 242Caribe Cesar -119 2.6 -1.3 0 160Caribe Cordoba -11 2.3 -3.8 0 160Caribe Guajira -69 2.2 -1.8 0 86Caribe Magdalena -158 2.4 -1.8 0 153Caribe Sucre 10 2.4 -4.1 -1 207Eje Cafetero Caldas 252 2.4 -4.2 -1 174Eje Cafetero Quindio 153 2.3 -4.1 -1 145Eje Cafetero Risaralda 158 2.4 -3.5 -1 141Llanos Arauca -13 2.9 -6.4 -1 188Llanos Casanare 163 2.8 -5.7 -1 229Llanos Meta 10 2.7 -5.4 -1 180Llanos Vaupes 46 2.8 -1.4 0 192Llanos Vichada 59 2.6 -2.6 0 152Pacifico Choco -157 2.2 -1.2 0 148Sur Occidente Cauca 172 2.3 -1.6 0 168Sur Occidente Narino 155 2.2 -1.4 0 126Sur Occidente Valle del Cauca 275 2.3 -5.1 -1 166
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Climate change predictions for 2050
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)
By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C
The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C
The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C
By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters.
“It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”
Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá
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Los Problemas
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Un Ejemplo
El susto de café en Cauca y las areas protegidas
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Desplazamiento de climas hacia altitudes mayores
Rango Altitudinal
Tmedia anual actual
Tmedia anual futuro
Tmedia anual
cambio (ºC)
Ppt total anual actual
190-500 25.54 27.70 2.16 5891 6002 1.88501-1000 23.47 25.66 2.19 3490 3597 3.041000-1500 21.29 23.50 2.21 2537 2641 4.101500-2000 18.36 20.58 2.22 2519 2622 4.082000-2500 15.60 17.82 2.22 2555 2657 4.002500-3000 13.33 15.54 2.21 2471 2575 4.20
Temperatura media reduce por 0.51oC por cada 100m en la zona cafetera. Un cambio de 2.2oC equivale a una diferencia de 440m.
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Adaptabilidad para café en Cauca, Colombia
• Cambios leves a 2020, y cambios drásticos a 2050
• Se reduce el área cultivable. Algunas nuevas oportunidades
MECETA
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Un análisis sectorial para Colombia
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Impactos en Colombia: cambio (%) en productividad a nivel Nacional
Plátano Café Algodón Caña Sorgo Fríjol Trigo Cebada Yuca Papa Ajonjolí Arroz Coco Ñame Maíz Tabaco Cacao Palma
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Cambio adaptabilidad (%) 2050-A2
Cambio adaptabilidad (%) 2050-A2
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Cambios promedios en adaptabilidad por departamento
Vichad
aSu
cre
Casanare
Bolívar
Magdale
na
Córdoba
Meta
Guaviar
eCesa
r
Guajira
Guanía
Arauca
Amazonas
Tolim
a
Vaupés
Antioquia
Atlántico
Choco
Caqueta
Santan
der
Valle d
el Cau
caHuila
QuindíoCau
ca
Putumay
oCald
as
Norte de S
antan
der
Cundina
Nariño
Risaral
da
Boyaca
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Cambio promedio en adaptabilidad
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Dos casos diferentes: Bolivar vs. Cauca
Ajonjolí
Algodón
Arroz
Banan
oCaca
oCafé Cañ
a
Cebad
aCoco
Fríjol
MaízÑam
ePalm
aPap
a
Plátan
oSo
rgo
Tabaco Tri
go Yuca
-60.00
-50.00
-40.00
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
Bolivar
Cauca
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Preliminary results Bogota’s food security
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Climate change predictions for 2050
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)
By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C
The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C
The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C
By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters.
“It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”
Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá
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Exposure by changing crop suitability of Potato
Potato
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Exposure by changing crop suitability of cassava
Cassava
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Reportes municipales de vulnerabilidad
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Hacia Soluciones
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Input Providers Consumer
Other Crops
Structural Adaptation
Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate.
Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4-certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure.
Adaptive Adjustments
Action:a) Shadingb) Changing varietalsc) Changing inputs
Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption.
Wholesale/Retail
C4
Coffee FederationCoffee Producers
a) Shading
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Coffee Producers
Transformational Adaptation
Action: Migrate to keep farmingChange farming systems (agricultural)Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural)
Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs.
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Opciones de adaptación y mitigación: Arroz de riego y secano
Medidas de Mitigación
• Reducir el consumo volumétrico del agua.
• Reducir el uso de fertilizantes en los sistemas productivos.
• Mejorar el manejo de los residuos de la cosecha y post-cosecha en el campo.
• Uso de hongos fijadores de nitrógeno
• Inhibición de nitrificación biológica.
Medidas de Adaptación
• Seguros agrícolas.• Adecuación de distritos de riego
actuales.• Aumento del área irrigada.• Desarrollo de nuevas variedades.• Cambio varietal
Nota: algunas de las medidas de mitigación propuestas para el subsector de arroz, pueden ser también empleadas como medidas de adaptación
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Análisis costo-eficacia de las medidasMedidas como el manejo del agua y de los residuos de cosecha: las más recomendables
Manejo racional de la fertilización: solo para algunas regiones productoras.
Aumento anual promedio (aprox) de los costos (US$2005):Mitigación: US$130 millones Adaptación: US$45 millones
Los mayores incrementos estarán relacionados con la adquisición de equipos, las obras de infraestructura y los costos de producción de los cultivos. Curva de abatimiento en arroz
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Como adaptamos?• Necesitamos saber que hacemos,
como lo hacemos, cuando lo hacemos y donde?
• Primero paso es analisar el problema• Segundo, analisar opciones de
adaptacion: politicas, practicas, tecnologias, inversiones
• Evaluar costo-beneficio• Implementar
INVE
STIG
ACIO
N Y
DES
ARRO
LLO
TE
CNO
LOG
ICO
POLI
TICA
S PU
BLIC
OS
Y PR
IVAD
OS
BUEN AGRONOMIA
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Email: [email protected]: http://dapa.ciat.cgiar.org