Climate Change and Floods-Dr Zaigham

8/8/2019 Climate Change and Floods-Dr Zaigham

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Climate Change, Floods andWater Management

Dr. Ziagham Habib

Wednesday, October 27, 2010


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Gr_1

Gr_2

Gr_3

Gr_4

Gr_5Lake_1

Lake_2

Lake_3

Folvi glacier

Location of Selected Glaciers and Lakes

SPOT XS image (1stSep. 2005)

Jhelum River basin

Astor River basin

(Kunhar)

Lake_4Lake_5


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19931993

1

23

45

1

2345

1

23

45

20012001

20052005

Landsat-5 TM in

14th July, 1993

Landsat-7 ETM+30th Sept. 2001

SPOT- 4 XS

1st Sept., 2005


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Extreme Events During Last 10 Years

1.Heavy Summer Floods monsoon, westerly

depression, locking ofJet Stream

2.Worst draught in the history of Pakistan2000-2001

3.Land slides formation of a large lake at

Attabad (Hunza)

4.Glacier Lake Burst Causing flash floods

5.Cyclones


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Supper Floods of 2010 are Unique

1.Prolonged peaks

2. Infrastructure damages

3.Huge spread outside the flood plains reaching

up to 50% of the Lower Indus

4.Secondary damages

5.Drainage failures?

Need to Identify factors leading to huge storage

of water inside the basin (about 40% of the 2

weeks floods)


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1. Drastic change in rainfall quantities

and pattern

2. Sea temperature rises

3. Sea Level rises

4. Some of the glaciers are melting

5. Deforestation in catchments

continued6. Decrease in snow cover area in

Jehlum and Chenab river catchments

Climate Change or Historical

variability?


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Table 3.2: Possible impacts of climate change, projections to the

mid- to late 21st century (2008)

Phenomenon

trendLikelihood

Agriculture,forestry,

ecosystems

Water resources Oth

er

Heavy

Precipitation

Events,

HigherFrequency

Very

likely

Crop damages,

soil erosion,

inability to

cultivatewaterlogging

Contamination,

water quality

water supply

Death,

injuries,

disruption of

settlements,infrastructure

Area affected

by drought

increases

Likely Land degradation,

low yields

livestock risks,

wildfires

More widespread

water stress

health,

diseases, food

shortage,

migration

Intense tropical

cyclone activity

increases

Likely Damages to crops

trees and

coral reefs

disruption of

public water

supply

Power outages

Death,

injuries, local

disruption,

migration


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Adaptation and vulnerability

Climate change pose two major water management challenges;

increasing water stress and increasing risk of floods. Adaptation options tocope with these challenges are well documented (IPCC, 2001b).

Reservoirs and dykes are likelyto remain the main structural

measures to protect against floods in highland and lowland areas,

respectively (Hooijer et al., 2004). However, other planned adaptation

options are becoming more popular,such as expanded floodplain areas(Helms et al., 2002),emergency flood reservoirs (Somlydy, 2002),

preserved areas for flood water (Silander et al., 2006), and flood

forecasting and warning systems, especially for flash floods. Multi-

purpose reservoirs serve as an adaptation measure for both floods and

droughts. [WGII 12.5.1]

To adapt to increasing water stress, the most common and plannedstrategies remain supply-side measures such as impounding rivers to

form in-stream reservoirs (Santos et al.,2002; Iglesias et al., 2005).

However,new reservoir construction is being increasingly

constrained in Europe by environmental regulations(Barreira, 2004)

and high investment costs (Schrter et al., 2005).


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Water => energy => GHG footprints

WATER ENERGY

CLIMATE

WATER FOOTPRINT

ENERGYFOOTPRINT

GHGFOOTPRINT

- an inter-related system!

(April 2008 T.J.Clausen, Niels Ipsen UNEP-DHI


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Mitigation Options

1.Protect Resource Base: Forests, Water and

Energy conservation

2.Clean energy production

3.Water Quality and Waste Management

4.Groundwater Aquifer management

5.Climate friendly agriculture


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Adaptation

Protect natural resilience of the system

flood plains, water ways and land

management

Control/minimize economic activities in

high risk zones

Define sustainable resource base forutilization of water, energy and

ecosystems


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Adaptation not an issue of natural

potential, but planning andimplementation

Vision - from drought to the floods

Policy - knowledge, integration, outputoriented

Strategies efficient, non repetitive, result

oriented, defining responsibilities

Implementation - clear target setting,

accounting procedures


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THANK YOU

Climate Change and Floods-Dr Zaigham

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