Climate Change and Fire Louisa Evers BLM Climate Change Coordinator Spring 2015 FALT Meeting.
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Transcript of Climate Change and Fire Louisa Evers BLM Climate Change Coordinator Spring 2015 FALT Meeting.
Climate Change Projections
• Warming year-round but especially for minimum temperatures and in summer
• Little change in annual precipitation but wetter winters and drier summers
• Increased frequency, intensity, and duration of drought
• Fewer but more intense storms, more dry days between storms
• Less snow and earlier snowmelt• Increases in extreme heat, decreases in extreme cold
Observations
• Warming in most seasons with trends in some locations statistically significant
• Little change in annual precipitation, some shifts in seasonality
• Earlier snowmelt• Earlier peak flows and lower base flows• Fewer cold extremes, more warm extremes
Types of Drought
• Very low winter precipitation with near normal seasonal temperatures – Dry Drought
• Warm winter with near normal precipitation followed by very warm, dry summer – Hot Drought
• Warm, dry winter followed by near-normal summer – Warm-Dry Drought
• Very warm temperatures through summer and near normal precipitation – Very Hot Drought
Drought Indicators
• Palmer Drought Severity Index– Not scalable– Values used not based on scientific significance– Does not capture drought onset– Performs poorly in mountainous terrain
• Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index– Scalable– Based on climatological statistics– Captures drought onset– Performs better in mountainous terrain
Energy Limited Fuel Limited
Ponderosa Pine
Fire
Ret
urn
Inte
rval
Cool-Moist Sagebrush
Warm-Dry Sagebrush
Juniper Woodland
Salt Desert Scrub
Dry Mixed Conifer
Moist Mixed Conifer
Lower Subalpine
Upper Subalpine
Implications of Climate ChangeForests Rangelands
Observed Changes in 90th Percentile ERC Values
PSAFire
Season June July August September October
NW01 0.00 -0.10 0.07 0.13 0.21 0.06
NW02 0.36 0.04 0.40 0.57 0.57 0.15
NW03 0.33 -0.04 0.37 0.59 0.49 0.16
NW04 0.42 -0.08 0.46 0.60 0.65 0.61
NW05 0.51 0.38 0.79 0.71 0.86 0.45
NW06 0.56 0.14 0.65 0.73 0.72 0.61
NW07 0.53 0.08 0.49 0.69 0.78 0.67
NW08 0.74 0.41 0.88 0.95 0.86 0.62
NW09 0.62 0.21 0.54 0.99 0.84 0.65
NW10 0.21 -0.17 0.42 0.60 0.16 -0.01
NW11 0.63 0.29 0.68 0.84 0.77 0.67
NW12 0.02 -0.56 0.15 0.37 0.35 -0.22