Climate Change and Conflict
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Transcript of Climate Change and Conflict
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICTBy Ilka FedorMA Thesis Student in 2011
From: oxfamblogs.org
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What is Environmental Conflict?
Galtung (1982): “Wars are often over resources.” “The destruction of the environment may
lead to more wars over resources.”
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What is Environmental Conflict?
Two theories: Neo-Malthusian vs. Cornucopian
Neo-Malthusian: Population growth leads to resource scarcity Competition arises Potential for violent conflict
Cornucopian: Environmental degradation as a threat
multiplier, not a cause of conflict itself Co-operation and technological advancements
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What is Environmental Conflict?
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Environmental Conflict in Action"Almost invariably, we discuss Darfur in a
convenient military and political shorthand - an ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers. Look to its roots, though, and you discover a more complex dynamic.
Amid the diverse social and political causes, the Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part
from climate change.“ (Ban Ki-moon, 2007)
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Group Work: Summarise Readings
Small groups, briefly discussing the main points of the assigned readings:
1. Barnett & Adger2. Nordås & Gleditsch3. Percival & Homer-Dixon
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Ilka’s Interpretations of Readings
Barnett & Adger: Climate change, human security and violent conflict
Key: state vulnerability Reduces quality and access to essential
resources Vulnerable states:
Reduced capacity to provide human security and peace
Increased human security risks May increase likelihood of conflict
Migration may be a response (my thesis)
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Ilka’s Interpretations of Readings
Nordås & Gleditsch: Climate change and conflict
Good literature reviewVery few evidential links linking to conflictTwo scenarios:
Resource scarcities may cause conflictInternational or internal forced environmental migration
May lead to conflict – resource competition with new territory
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Ilka’s Interpretations of Readings
Percival & Homer-Dixon: Environmental Scarcity in Rwanda
Environmental effects rely on 2 factors: Vulnerability of the ecosystem The population’s physical activity per capita
Increasing population , declining resource base = internal migration Environmental scarcity lands, water, forests, and fish
Key variable = Hutu elite insecurity – Arusha Accords Very limited effect – aggravating, peripheral roleIn Rwanda, environmental scarcity exacerbated
underlying social , political and institutional issues
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Practical Application of Environmental Conflict
Climate change is “simply the greatest collective challenge we face as a human family”
(Ban Ki-moon, 2009) Forced migration 200 million people by 2050
(Stern Review 2006) Most pressing issue: Low-lying atoll nations:
Kiribati, Maldives, Tuvalu Islands uninhabitable well before “inundation”
Loss of freshwater, salinated soils, increased ocean temperatures leading to decreased fishing yields, coastal erosion
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Overview of My ThesisLoss of culture, national identity, and sovereignty in
the face of climate change Literature review:
Environmental conflict theories Climate change debates and effects Migration psychology Acculturation model
Acculturation: cultural identity during migration Forced migration history
Bikini Island, Banaba (Ocean Island), Carteret Islands International law: refugees and IDP, law of the sea Kiribati: History, culture and environment Research method personal interviews with Kiribati
migrants
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Overview of My Thesis
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Climate and Conflict in Action?
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Kiribati Population = 100,000 Highest average elevation = 2m Average width: 1m Tarawa: Betio population density = Hong
Kong Limited resources
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Kiribati IPCC estimates
1°C – 3°C increase in ocean temperatures 0.18 – 0.59cm by the end of 21st century
EEZ: 12th largest in the world 3.55 million km2
Political impetus for change lacking
Personal interviews:Loss of culture, national identity, and
sovereignty in the face of climate change
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What Do You Think?
Group work: Short discussions in small groups: What do
you think could alleviate culture and nationality loss in the Pacific “sinking island” context?
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My Solution (to date...)
Keep EEZ at current demarcations permanently Retains “sovereignty” International law
Global awareness of paying fishing rights fees Funds for culture retention programs
Appeal for international foreign aid for policing EEZ
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Thinking of doing an MA? TOPIC Supervisor:
Expertise, time availability, how many others they supervise, general supervising style
UO MA Scholarship Just APPLY for one Beginning blues (first 3-months?)
Read, read, read and synthesise Attend graduate students workshops participate Network with other MA students collaborate Present your work as you go: poster presentations,
conferences, academic workshops