Climate Change and CA-Adaptation and Mitigation - M.L. Jat
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Transcript of Climate Change and CA-Adaptation and Mitigation - M.L. Jat
Climate change adaptation and mitigation potentials and strategies-How CA can help?
Global Conservation Agriculture Program (GCAP)International Maize & Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT)
www.cimmyt.org
• Global cropland increased by 27%
• Population Increased by 111%
• Food Production Increased by 164%
• Crop Yields Increased by 139%
Agricultural Achievements Since Green Revolution
Climate Change
Impact on Agriculture
Production: Reduced crop yield, particularly in south
Asia.
Soil: Drier, reduced productivity.
Irrigation: Increased demand, reduced supply.
Pests: Increased ranges and populations.
Livestock: Increased diseases and heat stress.
Fishery: Affected abundance and spawning.
Economic impact: Reduced agricultural output
A look at the past: 120 year analysis
Maximum temperatures• 0.71 oC/100 years
• Past 40 years - 0.17/10 years
Minimum temperature • 0.27 oC/100 years
• Past 40 years - 0.29/10 years
Rainfall (1871-2009 period)• 25 deficit and 20 excess monsoon rainfall years
• 1961-2009 : 13 deficit and 6 excess MRF years
IITM, 2010
Mean temperature rise projections
Global Indian region
Source: IPCC, 2004; Krishna Kumar, 2009
Climate Change Impact on water
• Pre-sowing rainfall has declined in last few years
• Ground water tables are declining (33 cm/yr, http://www.nasa.gov)
• Climate change will most likely alter the monsoon cycle and intensity of rainfall all over India (IPCC, IMD, 2007)
• This will have an impact on the irrigation water availability and agriculture.
Groundwater Changes in India During 2002-08, with losses in red and gains in
blue
Source: Samra (2010) Source: NASA (2009)
Climate Change Impact : Water (contd)
• Gross per capita water availability in India will decline from about 1,820 m3/yr in 2001 to as low as about 1,140 m3/yr in 2050 (IPCC 2007)
• Intense rain occurring over fewer days could imply increased frequency of floods during monsoon and reduced groundwater recharge due to higher runoff (IPCC 2007)
• Increase in rainfall may benefit cropping in Central Zone only with appropriate technologies
• Flows in many perennial seepage rivers ( eg. Narmada) in central and Deccan Plateau will depend on in situ rainwater conservation
Year
2000 2050G
ros
s p
er
ca
pit
a w
ate
r a
vail
ab
ilit
y i
n I
nd
ia (
m3/y
r)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Water Availability, India
Temperature & Humidity
• Avg. temp. in India has increased by +0.5oC over last 100 years (IPCC 2007)
• Projected temperature increase of +2 to +4oC by 2050 (IMD, IPCC 2007)
• Increased relative humidity +5% per decade. May impact disease/pest outbreak scenarios
IPCC 2007
Past & Future Number of Heat Days, India
Future Temperature Range and Heat Events
• Future temperature range will be above highest temperature in past (Battisti and Naylor 2009)
• Number of heat events will double in next 50 years (IPCC 2007)
• 6.6 MT grain yield decline for each 1oC mean temperature
increase during growing season ($1.3 Bn. @ $200/MT) (Aggarwal 2003)
• Rainfed areas must be made more productive for additional food through reduced resource degradation .
• Disruptions to timely planting; impact of heat shocks; could more than double these losses
Changes in Wheat Growing EnvironmentChanges in Wheat Growing Environment
Current
Future (2050)
High-yield environment
Low yielding environment
Maps: Ortiz et al (2008)
• Substantial loss of high-yield environments
• Reduced grain quality
• New disease & pest threats
• Yield stimulus from elevated CO2
• Potential yield reductions from dimming and ozone
• Additional food must be grown in east or rainfedareas
Climate Change: Agriculture Productivity Impact (2003-2080)
Source: Cline (2007)
• Increase in CO2 increases yields of rice, wheat, legumes and oilseeds
• A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields of wheat, soybean, mustard, groundnut, and potato by 3-7%.
• Productivity of most crops to decrease marginally by 2020 but by 10- 40% by 2100. Increased droughts, floods and heat waves will increase production variability
• Length of growing period in rainfed areas is likely to reduce
• Improvement in yields of chickpea, rabi maize, sorghum and millets.
Climate Change and Crop Productivity
Adaptation Strategies
• New genotypes
• New land use systems- rotations, BMPs including CA
• Value-added weather management services
• Integrated study of ‘climate change triangle’ and ‘disease triangle’, especially in relation to viruses and their vectors
• Documentation of indigenous traditional knowledge (ITK) and exploring opportunities for its utilization
A. Reducing Emissions
• Minimizing soil erosion risks
• Eliminating biomass burning
• Improving input use efficiency (e.g., fertilizers, energy, water,
pesticides)
Conservation Agriculture holds the key
B. Sequestering Emissions
Mitigation Strategies
Sequestration strategies
Sink and Sequester Enhancements• Carbon Sequestration in Soils• Changes in Land Use and Management: higher biomass,
reduce erosion
Emission Reductions• N20 reduction by better management of Nitrogenous fertilizer• CH4 reduction from rice fields and livestock• CO2 reduction by reducing fossil fuel, tillage operations
Avoid Emission• Prevent deforestation• Substitution of biomass based energy for fossil fuel energy
Conservation Agriculture holds the key
1. World 600 – 1200
2. USA 144 – 432
3. India 40 – 50
4. Iceland 1.2 – 1.6
5. Brazil 40 – 60
6. W. Europe 70 – 190
7. China 126 – 364
Region Potential Tg C/yr
Estimates of Global and Regional Potential of Soil C Sequestration
Source: R. Lal
C Sequestration Potential of CA
Emissions of CO2 in agriculture can be decreased by reducing tillage & maintaining crop residues on the soil surface that leads to C sequestration in the soil
----(Reicosky, 2001)
Of the total C sequestration potential of 40-50 TgC/yr, the soil C sequestration potential is 12-17 TgC/yr in Indian soils
---- (Lal, 2004)
In general, soil C sequestration during 1st decade of adoption of CA practices is 1.8 t CO2 ha
-1 yr-1
---- (Vlek & Tamene, 2009)
Practice Tons CO2
equiv/ha/yr
Improved agronomy 0.98
Nutrient management 0.62
Tillage / residue management
0.72
Rice management 0.62
Agroforestry 0.72
Land restoration 3.45
Conservation set-asides 5.36
Source: P Smith et al (2007)
Carbon potential of conservation agriculture practices
Better tillage and Better tillage and
residue mgt can residue mgt can
reduce transpiration, reduce transpiration,
and also sequester and also sequester
carboncarbon
Incentives are Incentives are
required to assist in required to assist in
the transition to the transition to
sustainable land sustainable land
management management
practices practices
Recommended Management Practices (RMPs) and Soil Carbon
Recommended practices C sequestration potential
(Mg C/ha/yr)
Conservation tillage 0.10-0.40
Winter cover crop 0.05-0.20
Soil fertility management 0.05-0.10
Elimination of summer fallow 0.05-0.20
Forages based rotation 0.05-0.20
Use of improved varieties 0.05-0.10
Organic amendments 0.20-0.30
Water table management/ irrigation 0.05-0.10
Source: Lal et al., (1998)
Long-term NT and Cropping systems Effect on TOC Concentration at 0 ± 30 cm depth of a sandy
clay loam Acrisol in southern Brazil
Source: Bayer et al (2000)
O/M: oat/maize
O+V/M+C: oat +
common
vetch/ maize+
cowpea
CO2 emissions under traditional practices and conservation agriculture in maize and wheat
Source: Ken Sayre & Bram Govaerts , CIMMYT
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
40% 60% 80% 100%
WHC
CT NT
CO2 emissions in NT and CT in maize-wheat rotation at different soil moisture regimes
CO
2 emission (mg C kg-1soil day-1
Source: Zuniga et al (2009)
Carbon input, output and sustainability index in Rice-wheat cropping system
Raj Kumar Jat-CIMMYT
Tillage Maize-wheat system
Maize Wheat MWCS
Productivity (t/ha)
CA 4.4a 4.4a 8.8a
Conventional 3.7b 3.9b 7.6b
Carbon Sustainability
Index (CSI)
CA 22.2a 10.3a 16.2a
Conventional 13.4b 10.0a 11.7b
Productivity & CSI of MWCS:CA v/s Conventional Tillage
Raj Kumar Jat-CIMMYT
o Higher GWP in the conventional system was due to more fuel use for tillage, water pumping and more methane emission in submerged condition.
o At the current price of C credit (US$ 30 Mg-1 CO2) double no till system fetches an additional income of US$ 24 ha-1 compared to the conventional rice-wheat system.
1697
1514
1742
2400
1616
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
CTPR-CW UTPR-ZTW BTPR-Bed DSR-ZTW ZT TPR-ZTW
Co2 (kg/ha)
CTPR-CW UTPR-ZTW BTPR-Bed DSR-ZTW ZT TPR-ZTW
Simulated global warming potential
Yash Saharawat
Impacts of climate change-Wheat
Agarwal et al 2010
March 2004, Indo–Gangeticplains
•Temperatures 3-6ºC higher than normal•~1ºC/ day over the crop season. •wheat matured earlier by 10-20 days•production dropped by >4 m tonnes in the country(Aggarwal, 2008). +2 oC
>20% loss
Lobell et al, 2012
Climatic Variability: Wheat Productivity in NWGP
Source: YS Saharawat (2011), Per Communication
What is the magnitude of heat tolerance we are looking for?G
rain
yie
ld (
q/h
a)
TS: Timely Sown
(Early November)
LS: Late Sown
(Early December)
Difference (Normal–High Temp Environment)= 1.0 t/ha
Source: Rane, 2012
Polynomial relationship between sowing time and GY of wheat in EGP (ZT cases, n = 704)
Source: Synthesized from CSISA-EUP hub data (2010-11)
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
10
DAS
17
DAS
22
DAS
27
DAS
32
DAS
37
DAS
45
DAS
53
DAS
58
DAS
63
DAS
70
DAS
110
DAS
116
DAS
124
DAS
136
DAS
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0NT + R (Morning) NT (Morning)
NT + R (Evening)) NT (Evening)
-7.5
-6.5
-5.5
-4.5
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
110 111 114 115 116 120 121 122 128 130 131 132 135 138 141 143 148 150 151 153
Days after sowing
Te
mp
era
ture
dif
fere
nc
e (
oC
)
Residue retained Residue removed
Terminal heat
Soil Temperature
Canopy Temperature
CA helps mitigate climatic variability: Example of wheat in North-West India
Tillage/
residue
Wheat
Yield
(t/ha)
Tillage
effects
Residue
effects
Combined
effects
TPR-ZTW 5.33
TPR-ZTW+R 5.56 0.23
ZTDSR-ZTW 5.58 0.25 (P)
ZTDSR-ZTW+R 5.88 0.32 0.30 0.55
•Residue cover buffers the comfort zone- for roots , less energy losses•Better moisture-nutrient interactions for higher yields•Tillage-Residue interactions have synergistic (~0.5t/ha) on yield
Source: Jat et al (2009)
Source Analysis of variance (ANOVA)
Replication 0.071
Treatment (T) 0.004
Residue ( R) 0.002
T x R 0.879
Improving Photosynthetic Efficiency
Source: Jat et al (2012)-under publication
Variety Zero Tillage Conventional TillagePBW 343 3.87 + 0.78 (204) 3.18 + 0.72 (37)
PBW 502 4.36 + 0.80 (149) 3.78 + 0.71 (21)
HD 2733 4.45 + 0.81 (70) 4.08 + 0.74 (2)
HD 2824 4.82 + 0.77 (54) 3.82 + 0.65 (10)
PBW 154 3.35 + 0.51 (21) 1.89 + 0.11 (3)
PBW 373 3.13 + 0.59 (53) 2.49 + 0.30 (6)
OTHERS 3.74 + 0.96 (69) 2.54 + 0.79 (8)
Average 3.96 + 0.61 (620) 3.11 + 0.82 (87)
Genotype x Tillage Interactions:Eastern Gangetic Plains (2010-11)
Source: CSISA EGP hub reports (2011)
Direct drilling of Wheat (Nov-4, 2011)
Grain yield- 6.8 t/ha (Average of 20 acres)
Tillage and irrigation cost (% of total) in EGP: Effect of CA and irrigation on wheat yield
Management practices Wheat Yield (t/ha)
CT 1 irrigation 3.75 (+0.79)
CT 2 irrigation 3.82 (+0.81)
CT 3 irrigation 4.24 (+1.03)
CT 4 irrigation 5.50 (+0.10)
CT 5 irrigation 5.56 (+0.42)
ZT without residue 2 Irrigation
4.36 (+0.20)
ZT full residue 2 irrigation
5.19 (+0.29)
ZT partial residue 2 irrigation
4.87 (+0.26)
Source: RK Malik & CSISA hub teams of Bihar & Eastern UP (2010-11)
Source Analysis of variance (ANOVA)
Replication 0.560
Treatment (T) 0.001
Residue ( R) <0.001
T x R 0.121
CA and Stress management
Source: Jat et al (2012)-under publication
S. No.
Current Systems/practices Future Systems/Practices
1 Repeated tillage No-till/Drastically reduced till
2 Residue burning/removal Reside retention
3 Monoculture Efficient & economical rotations
4 Crop based management System based management
5 Ex-situ organic recycling In-situ organic recycling
6 Ad-hoc recommendation Site/location/situation specific recommendations
7 No water control Better water use
8 Fertilizer- broadcast Placement
Agronomic practices for adapting climate change effects- what we already have
Key Messages !
--The sun shines everywhere but, crops grows only where farmers has worked hard
--Opportunities are everywhere but, result comes only where people have worked hard
--God is everywhere but, his grace is felt one who serves with noble heart
CA, the Agriculture of the Future
– the Future of Agriculture